I laid this out for the Avs a while back but the best goalie draft guideline would be one goalie from the first three rounds and then the next two seasons take goalies in the later rounds. Obviously it's a guideline and meant to be flexible based on the situation each year. With this guideline though you always have a high end goalie prospect supplemented by late rounders who could develop into gems.
With the quality goalie depth in this year's draft and no low first rounders Vegas should aim for a goalie in the 3rd round to start their goalie prospect pool. Oettinger would be fantastic as he's a tier above every other goalie in this draft, a late bday putting him on a faster track to the pro's and already has one season in the NCAA completed as a starter. Vegas is just not going to take him without a 20th-31st overall pick though. If I were to make a suggestion to Vegas I'd say take Primeau/Zhukov. Petruzzelli won't be there in the 3rd round.
Drafting goalies is not a crap shoot for the record. The round that has provided the most goalies in the NHL is the 1st round followed by the 3rd and then the 2nd/5th. 19 of now 31 teams starting goalies are from the first three rounds of the draft. 9 of 15 of the most consistent starting goalies from this past season were from the first three rounds of the draft as well. The 8 out of 15 most consistent starting goalies of the past three years are from the first three rounds as well. In the last five years of Vezina voting the Top 3 has seen a goalie from the first three rounds 8 times out of 15 possible spots.
Here's an article that compares the
Bust Rates of Goalies vs. Skaters from 2015.
There's value in taking goalies in the first three rounds of the draft. Don't let Jack Campbell scare you off. I like mid-2nd to mid-3rd for my goalies though I haven't done a whole lot of research into specific positions yet so it's just a feeling at this point.