OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 2)
- Thread starter Lshap
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llamateizer
Registered User
I'm glad being able to double my possessions with almost same capital.
still confident it can go up.
QuebecPride
Registered User
Just to be certain, are you including the money you reinvested in your denominator to calculate 250%? I imagine you put in more money as time went by.
Most people struggle to properly estimate their return %, since they don't have one moment they invested , but many.
Your IRR, must be quite hard to calculate as well since you buy and sell a lot.
Mrb1p
PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
I have an excel sheet with every single dollars invested from my pocket, I haven't taken anything out, it is all reinvested. I just got very lucky with my timing and profit taking. Obviously, Ill probably get eaten up on captial gains but Ill see on that.
Im glad with the profit Ive made "day trading" (More like gambling.) and now Im mostly just pumping in money and playing the long game.
Mrb1p
PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
Im unsure I grasp the difference here? Wouldn't 250% profit be the same as the original investment ? Regardless, Im up 250% on the money I have invested.
QuebecPride
Registered User
So you include further investments.
Gross return, or MOIC (Multiple of invested capital) is not that hard to calculate (Value / capital invested), but annual return is harder since you have to include investment weights and weigh for time invested.
But yeah, your net return will probably be a bit different, since it's all taxable.
Personally I have no idea of my true IRR and wouldn't dare to calculate, but some apps via your broker can help.
Apparently my annual return is 10,90%, since I started investing in 2014. 1 year return is 31%.
There’s a difference but I might have skimmed through his comment too quickly. My bad.
tinyzombies
Registered User
montreal
Go Habs Go
I agree with her, only have a small amount between ARKK and ARKF but so far i'm happy with both.
tinyzombies
Registered User
Hedgies were spreading bs today saying inflation was still a danger, so you know Cathie is right if they're that quick to "warn" us.
montreal
Go Habs Go
just a little background for those that don't know, I have a degree in Finance, have worked for some of the biggest banks in the USA in JPMorgan, Citi, interned at Mellon Bank, got my start out of college at the Vanguard Group where I got my series 6 and 63. I started trading stocks in '93 and have been either in the market or managing money for others just about every day since then.
Now despite my background I don't think I've ever looked/followed interest rates, never bought into inflation fears (this time inflation ran hot due to unique situations based mostly on covid) but I never once thought I need to make changes to my portfolios because of interest rates or inflation.
There's always going to be some pro out there spreading fear on something, every year there's Marc Faber calling for the end of the world type markets or so it seems. One day he might be right but as they say a broken clock is right twice a day. I say stick to what you know and be very careful of others "opinions"
tinyzombies
Registered User
Good to hear.
She says with money flowing from goods to services that durables will drop causing prices to drop (because businesses overbought supplies and now sales are down). That will keep interest rates and inflation down and cause people to borrow and invest in growth stocks again.
QuebecPride
Registered User
Inflation is really easy to control, you increase interest rates. People should not be worried about inflation nowadays. We know how to counter it. Deflation is scary though.
I guess some investors are worried by inflation because increased interest rates would mean the growth stock would be less interesting.
But even then, if you're investing in the broad stock market, it's probably the best protection against inflation. I wouldn't lose sleep over that.
Also, people should be wary of interest rate predictions. They're very tough to make. A clever Professor I had once said, if you want to look smart, say rates will increase or decrease, but never say when or by how much.
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What’s that quote go like .... “buy when people are selling, sell when people are buying”
you’re 100% right regarding market scares, I guess what matters is the fundamentals behind the company.
azcanuck
Registered User
The problem is Powell is political and not independent and he wants to keep things jacked to please his masters. (Janet Yellen).
montreal
Go Habs Go
Powell is my favorite Fed chair. How is Janet Yellen his master?
Made a quick buck today on the Hidenberg report on DKNG. Bought near the bottom on the premarket overreaction and sold two bucks up. Looking to get in and out again
QuebecPride
Registered User
Powell is independent, just like Yellen was. Trump named him, but Powell wouldn't do what Trump wanted him to do.
The President of the Fed is probably the second most powerful person on earth, after the USA President.
Most Presidents don't play around with the Fed presidents because it is badly viewed. Trump tried to stir the pot, and if he succeeded to influence the Fed, the markets would not have liked it whatsover.
azcanuck
Registered User
Yellen and Powell are close. And the fed being "independent" is an opinion not shared by all. And I realize many of you still have Trump derangement syndrome but he's out of office now.
QuebecPride
Registered User
Okay, how is the fed not independent? I want facts, not opinions.
Also, go read what the fed's role is in monetary policy. They have pretty clear criteria for changing the rates. Inflation, unemployment rates and finally economic growth. They're not there to win the public opinion. Just to bring more economic stability.
Trump named Powell, not Yellen. The latter two probably have worked together previously for the Fed, but the government does not a 'say in how the Fed runs its business. They would have to change the laws and the objectives of the Fed, which probably needs approval in all three chambers. Easier said than done.
The president names the Fed chair, then he GTFO of the way and lets him/her do its job. They consult the government to see what direction they'll go budget wise, and then decide what they'll do with the nearly infinite money pool they have.
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montreal
Go Habs Go
Scintillating10
Registered User
I have a couple accounts, my RRSP (long), TFSA (long) and another TFSA that is somewhat long that i do some trading in with fun money as well.
I try to get in on stocks that get killed in PM from bad news and make a quick buck. Not too many shares though because I lack the skill of an actual day trader. But Ive done very well recently
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