OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 2)

[QuebecPride]

Hmmm. I want to pull the trigger and pick some up, but I am way too conservative with investments and don't do well with volatility.

Then don't touch cryptos. Or invest only what you can bear to lose. This is not for the faint of heart. Cryptos push the boundaries of the definition of volatility haha

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Realistically, I could easily keep 2-3k in there for years without really worrying about it. The problem is that I am neurotic and panic all the time.

So you don’t have a desire for risk.

I mean, Air Canada trades at ~25$/share right now. Was about 50 pre pandemic. They’ve bled cash during the year but we’re great beforehand.

I’m fairly confident that since it’s our biggest airline it will survive and likely be at 35$+ fairly easily within 2 years time. That’s a solid 40% return.

It’s nothing crazy like Bitcoin volatility but it’s hard to imagine you wouldn’t make money on it if you’re patient.

If you’re hoping for the Hail Mary then this isn’t it. You just also have to accept you might lose if you want that Hail Mary. Risk and reward.

 

[Andy]

So you don’t have a desire for risk.

I mean, Air Canada trades at ~25$/share right now. Was about 50 pre pandemic. They’ve bled cash during the year but we’re great beforehand.

I’m fairly confident that since it’s our biggest airline it will survive and likely be at 35$+ fairly easily within 2 years time. That’s a solid 40% return.

It’s nothing crazy like Bitcoin volatility but it’s hard to imagine you wouldn’t make money on it if you’re patient.

If you’re hoping for the Hail Mary then this isn’t it. You just also have to accept you might lose if you want that Hail Mary. Risk and reward.

Well, if I invest in bitcoin, it won't go to 0. I won't lose everything. So the risk is slightly less.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Well, if I invest in bitcoin, it won't go to 0. I won't lose everything. So the risk is slightly less.

Its very rare anything goes to zero. My point is just if you’re going for a volatile option you gotta accept the risk. If you fear risk and panic it’s not a good combination.

That said 2-3k isn’t going to break your life savings and it’s a very reasonable amount. I would not panic, win or lose.

 

[Mrb1p]

Theres very little risk in bitcoin, especially today. Price is hitting the bottom of the cycle soon or it is there already, you will 100% see gains, wether its next month or in two years is the question.

I think the market will lengthen and we will see the top in 2022, a lot of people think the market will repeat and we will see the top in september-december of 2021.

Cardano is safe also if our horizon is 12, 24, 36 months.
ETH is safe is our horizon is 12+, I think it goes bearish for a bit.
LINK is 100% safe and the one Im pumping money in right now, looking at the market from previous years, it is a very good insurance when BTC/ETH show bearish trends.

 

[llamateizer]

Well, if I invest in bitcoin, it won't go to 0. I won't lose everything. So the risk is slightly less.

if you invest in real shitcoins, yes there is high chance of it reaching 0.

hoge, shiba, safemoon, c*mrocket. yes.

 

[Andy]

if you invest in real shitcoins, yes there is high chance of it reaching 0.

hoge, shiba, safemoon, c*mrocket. yes.

I would never invest in shitcoins.

 

[QuebecPride]

Theres very little risk in bitcoin, especially today. Price is hitting the bottom of the cycle soon or it is there already, you will 100% see gains, wether its next month or in two years is the question.

I think the market will lengthen and we will see the top in 2022, a lot of people think the market will repeat and we will see the top in september-december of 2021.

Cardano is safe also if our horizon is 12, 24, 36 months.
ETH is safe is our horizon is 12+, I think it goes bearish for a bit.
LINK is 100% safe and the one Im pumping money in right now, looking at the market from previous years, it is a very good insurance when BTC/ETH show bearish trends.

If you say that Bitcoin has very little risk, you probably need to look up the definition of risk in Finance...

In finance, standard deviation is a common metric associated with risk. Standard deviation provides a measure of the volatility of asset prices in comparison to their historical averages in a given time frame.

Risk

Volatility is risk, by definition and those things are volatile AF.

With the drop in price, your odds of making a profit might have increased, but the risk isn't reduced. Rather, it is the upside that is increased. So you get more reward per unit of risk, but it's not less risky at all, on the contrary.

Bitcoin could go to 0 eventually. There's no guarantee it doesn't. Is it plausible right now? Probably not.

 

[Mrb1p]

If you say that Bitcoin has very little risk, you probably need to look up the definition of risk in Finance...

In finance, standard deviation is a common metric associated with risk. Standard deviation provides a measure of the volatility of asset prices in comparison to their historical averages in a given time frame.

Risk

Volatility is risk, by definition and those things are volatile AF.

With the drop in price, your odds of making a profit might have increased, but the risk isn't reduced. Rather, it is the upside that is increased. So you get more reward per unit of risk, but it's not less risky at all, on the contrary.

Bitcoin could go to 0 eventually. There's no guarantee it doesn't. Is it plausible right now? Probably not.

Bitcoin will never go to zero, thats just something very ignorant to say and a common trend in traditional investors.

 

[QuebecPride]

Bitcoin will never go to zero, thats just something very ignorant to say and a common trend in traditional investors.

Did I say it will go to 0? No. I said it could. If you think that's ignorant to say, well... your understanding of the those two words are incorrect. Can and will are two very different things.

I can go to the grocery store today, but I won't go.

 

[Mrb1p]

Did I say it will go to 0? No. I said it could. If you think that's ignorant to say, well... your understanding of the those two words are incorrect. Can and will are two very different things.

I can go to the grocery store today, but I won't go.

You have 100% chances of being able to get into the grocery store.

Can you say the same thing for bitcoin? Its more like 0.0000001 chance it tanks.

 

[QuebecPride]

You have 100% chances of being able to get into the grocery store.

Can you say the same thing for bitcoin? Its more like 0.0000001 chance it tanks.

I am afraid you don't have a good grasp of probabilities my friend

It is tough to put a number on that, but if I would, off the top of my head I'd probably say a 2-3% chance it goes to 0. Which is bearable to me, but might not be to some.

Obviously that figure is biased as it's not based on research whatsoever, but then so is your figure as well

 

[Mrb1p]

I am afraid you don't have a good grasp of probabilities my friend

It is tough to put a number on that, but if I would, off the top of my head I'd probably say a 2-3% chance it goes to 0. Which is bearable to me, but might not be to some.

Obviously that figure is biased as it's not based on research whatsoever, but then so is your figure as well

What realistic scenario has Bitcoin at 0% while fiat remains at decent value?

For what its worth, I study environmental sciences and I believe well see a pretty big economical shift soon (couple decades at worst) wether forced by nature or not, and this is the only scenario I can see where it hits zero. But then everything changes.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Risk exists regardless of if something goes to 0. You can put 100k in something and it can be worth 1k when all is done. The last 1k doesn’t erase you just lost 99k.

I don’t suspect that of Bitcoin per day but I wouldn’t measure risk on something hitting 0.

To each their own.

 

[Mrb1p]

Risk exists regardless of if something goes to 0. You can put 100k in something and it can be worth 1k when all is done. The last 1k doesn’t erase you just lost 99k.

I don’t suspect that of Bitcoin per day but I wouldn’t measure risk on something hitting 0.

To each their own.

Obviously, i measure risk as getting out poorer than when you got in.

That is virtually zero.

 

[QuebecPride]

What realistic scenario has Bitcoin at 0% while fiat remains at decent value?

For what its worth, I study environmental sciences and I believe well see a pretty big economical shift soon (couple decades at worst) wether forced by nature or not, and this is the only scenario I can see where it hits zero. But then everything changes.

I mean, it took one tweet from an influential CEO and a country cutting down on Bitcoin for it to drop 30%. There are millions of things that could send Bitcoin to 0. Some of them are probably inimaginable to us right now. But you can't ignore that something we're unaware of could wipe it out. (Unknown Unknown).

The biggest risks for bitcoin, in my humble opinion, are its energy consumption and a replacement coin taking the pole with more efficient/faster/cheaper technology. Or that Satoshi has a secret key and swoops in to reclaim all bitcoins.

 

[Mrb1p]

I mean, it took one tweet from an influential CEO and a country cutting down on Bitcoin for it to drop 30%. There are millions of things that could send Bitcoin to 0. Some of them are probably iminaginable to us right now. But you can't ignore that something we're unaware of could wipe it out. (Unknown Unknown).

The biggest risks for bitcoin, in my humble opinion, are its energy consumption and a replacement coin taking the pole with more efficient/faster/cheaper technology. Or that Satoshi has a secret key and swoops in to reclaim all bitcoins.

That is also not what happened to bitcoin, though it did not help. Manipulation happens with BTC and Im sure you can admit it happens even more in the normal stock market.

Bitcoin is already replaced by Cardano and Ethereum and many other projects. It does not answer to this at all.

That third statement is... I dont know how to qualify it. It does not follow any logic. What would Satoshi do with the whole reserve of bitcoin? Is he just trolling everyone? Would he go from one of the most wealthy person on earth to moderately wealthy just for that? What would he gain from this? Economic terrorism? Why hasnt he done it yet? Theres also the fact that the source codes are... there for everyone...


Listen, i know you think you know a lot, but picking up a book about bitcoin would help you greatly here. None of the points you raise have even an ounce of validity.

 

[CoupeStanley]

I mean, it took one tweet from an influential CEO and a country cutting down on Bitcoin for it to drop 30%. There are millions of things that could send Bitcoin to 0. Some of them are probably iminaginable to us right now. But you can't ignore that something we're unaware of could wipe it out. (Unknown Unknown).

The biggest risks for bitcoin, in my humble opinion, are its energy consumption and a replacement coin taking the pole with more efficient/faster/cheaper technology. Or that Satoshi has a secret key and swoops in to reclaim all bitcoins.

It is opensource.. if there was a secret features it would be known. Biggest risk IMO, is quantum computing breaking the algorithm.

And if that happens, I am not sure the Bitcoin community can adapt. Too much division and byzantine politics to take hits and adjust.

 

[QuebecPride]

It is opensource.. if there was a secret features it would be known. Biggest risk IMO, is quantum computing breaking the algorithm.

And if that happens, I am not sure the Bitcoin community can adapt. Too much division and byzantine politics to take hits and adjust.

Interesting, that's one risk that I did not think of, and I'm sure there are plenty more.

 

[QuebecPride]

That is also not what happened to bitcoin, though it did not help. Manipulation happens with BTC and Im sure you can admit it happens even more in the normal stock market.

Bitcoin is already replaced by Cardano and Ethereum and many other projects. It does not answer to this at all.

That third statement is... I dont know how to qualify it. It does not follow any logic. What would Satoshi do with the whole reserve of bitcoin? Is he just trolling everyone? Would he go from one of the most wealthy person on earth to moderately wealthy just for that? What would he gain from this? Economic terrorism? Why hasnt he done it yet? Theres also the fact that the source codes are... there for everyone...


Listen, i know you think you know a lot, but picking up a book abouy bitcoin would help you greatly here. None of the points you raise have even an ounce of validity.

I honestly don't think there was any manipulation in the recent drop. The BTC market is just very reactionary of any news IMO. But if there is manipulation, odds are bigger that it's happening in Cryptos than the public markets. There are no SEC/AMF for cryptos, it's the wildwest, especially in the labeled shitcoins. Which is what makes it fun and interesting to watch rise and then crash and burn the follow week if not days. You could argue that the SEC/AMF is corrupt, but personally I'm not of that opinion.

That last risk (Satoshi) was more tongue in cheek than anything else , but it's still a non-zero probability.

I'm far from a crypto encyclopedia, but I have read and consumed a lot coverage on the Bitcoin/Ethereum. No books yet, but the ones that are out seem outdated to me. If you have a suggestion for me, go ahead. My interest for cryptos started in 2017, like a whole bunch of the population, but I did not start to invest before 2021 as I've stated on here many times. Not investing in it and being uninformed are two different things.

I do not watch any youtube videos from crypto influencers or evangelists, but I would like to believe that I'm somewhat of an early adopter in investments (crypto aside).

For instance, I invested a few hundred bucks in a 10M$ painting last week through Masterworks. Don't ask me how it will fare, I have no idea how the art market works. But it seems to not be correlated with anything else and reels in 18% a year. Count me in.

 

[Mrb1p]

I honestly don't think there was any manipulation in the recent drop. The BTC market is just very reactionary of any news IMO. But if there is manipulation, odds are bigger that it's happening in Cryptos than the public markets. There are no SEC/AMF for cryptos, it's the wildwest, especially in the labeled shitcoins. Which is what makes it fun and interesting to watch rise and then crash and burn the follow week if not days. You could argue that the SEC/AMF is corrupt, but personally I'm not of that opinion.

That last risk (Satoshi) was more tongue in cheek than anything else , but it's still a non-zero probability.

I'm far from a crypto encyclopedia, but I have read and consumed a lot coverage on the Bitcoin/Ethereum. No books yet, but the ones that are out seem outdated to me. If you have a suggestion for me, go ahead. My interest for cryptos started in 2017, like a whole bunch of the population.

I do not watch any youtube videos from crypto influencers or evangelists, but I would like to believe that I'm somewhat of an early adopter in investments (crypto aside).

For instance, I invested a few hundred bucks in a 10M$ painting last week through Masterworks. Don't ask me how it will fare, I have no idea how the art market works. But it seems to not be correlated with anything else and reels in 18% a year. Count me in.

Youtube is a cesspool of crap when it comes to crypto. I do watch Benjamin Crowen daily for his TA and Altcoin daily for news (not their opinion) but the rest of the space is incredibly dense and stupid.

As for books, I have read digital gold, the bitcoin standard and the internet of money.

Theres also a netflix docu on decentralized finance/bitcoin that I have yet to watch.


The problems you brought up are things that are brought up so often by ill informed individuals about bitcoin especially.

A lot of what you say can be true for a lot of coins, but not Bitcoin. Both ETH and ADA are replaceable, and both are "fighting" the same fight. Not bitcoin though.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I’m pulling out of Newton. They are a terrible exchange, my etransfer has been pending all day. It’s gone from my bank, no option to cancel and no funds in my account. They want to make sure I don’t catch this dip.

 

[montreal]

I had 30 bucks sitting in my paypal account so I bought bitcoin to go with my 10 bucks of ETH, lol.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I mean, it took one tweet from an influential CEO and a country cutting down on Bitcoin for it to drop 30%. There are millions of things that could send Bitcoin to 0. Some of them are probably inimaginable to us right now. But you can't ignore that something we're unaware of could wipe it out. (Unknown Unknown).

The biggest risks for bitcoin, in my humble opinion, are its energy consumption and a replacement coin taking the pole with more efficient/faster/cheaper technology. Or that Satoshi has a secret key and swoops in to reclaim all bitcoins.

All you proved with this post is that you don’t understand the market at all.

 

[Mrb1p]

I’m pulling out of Newton. They are a terrible exchange, my etransfer has been pending all day. It’s gone from my bank, no option to cancel and no funds in my account. They want to make sure I don’t catch this dip.

Yes, Ive done so months ago. It is really a bad platform.