Lets do some math.

[dumbdick]

At least one team will go on a hot streak from the bottom.

 

[saskriders]

At least one team will go on a hot streak from the bottom.

Yes, but we have points in hand to give us a head start

 

[OgieO]

as long as 5 of them don't all get hot, we should be okay. Unless we collapse, but I just don't see this team collapsing.

 

[TheNuge]

this is the leafs we're talking about. Dont put anything past them.

last year they had a 90% chance about 70% of the way through the season. Then the wheels came off: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/2011-2012/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Toronto_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html

The ron wilson wheels came off...this is carlyle here

 

[OgieO]

Doing this again, except this time instead of 55, I will make the magic number 50 (highest point total a non-playoff team could get playing .500 hockey)

Pit .125
Mtl .278
Wpg 1.00
Bos .368
Ott .625
Tor .882
NJ .941
Car 1.00

NYR 1.00
Was 1.24
NYI 1.24
Buf 1.29
Phi 1.28
TB 1.35
Fla 1.53

So if NYR finishes with PPG hockey, then we need to get .625 of available points (20) to tie them. I believe the worst record that beats that (21 pts) is 6-0-9.

Do you mean

So if NYR finishes with PPG hockey, then we need to get .625 of available points (20) to tie them.

or

So if NYR finishes with PPG hockey, then we need to get .625 points per game played the rest of the season.

BIG difference.

 

[saskriders]

Do you mean
or


BIG difference.

Per game, my bad

 

[danishh]

it's basically 12-14 more points to clinch, in 16 games. Very doable, but we need to be strong at home this week before taking off to the road.

 

[Mercurial]

Different take on % age of making the playoffs. Nice site. Hasn't updated with today's games yet.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternstandings.html

 

[Rysto]

Different take on % age of making the playoffs. Nice site. Hasn't updated with today's games yet.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternstandings.html

Interesting that we have a 1% chance of finishing 2nd, but a less than 1% chance of finishing 1st or 3rd.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Different take on % age of making the playoffs. Nice site. Hasn't updated with today's games yet.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternstandings.html

Biggest stat I read:

8% chance of no playoffs. Damn good odds.

 

[aragorn]

What isn`t mentioned is how strong the NorthEast division is in comparison to the SE & Atlantic divisions. Only Buffalo from the NE division is out of a playoff position & only by two pts. The SE & Atl both have three teams out of a playoff position. If Ottawa was in the SE division they would have a 6 pt cushion on the 1st place Jets.

 

[Flamingo]

It's exciting how likely a 1st round Habs, 2nd round Leafs matchup progression is. That would bring pandemonium.

 

[Mercurial]

Interesting that we have a 1% chance of finishing 2nd, but a less than 1% chance of finishing 1st or 3rd.

1st will be the Penguins, and 3rd will be the winner of the south east.

That site actually attempts to take into account the quality of the opposition in the remaining games to make it's estimations.

We have had the 3rd hardest schedule so far based on win %age of opposition. All the teams in NE have a tough schedule, because they're all doing so well (except Buffalo).

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternsosag.html

Out of the remaining games we're facing teams with an average 49% win percentage, compared to the Habs with the hardest schedule remaining at 53%.

 

[Lenny the Lynx]

Its crazy how close things are. I know that with the OTL points now its harder for teams to climb, but looking at the East there's really only one team (FLA) that is really out of it. All the rest are longshots but if they went on a few game winning streak they could climb back in.

Also we are 8 pts out of 9th, but also only 10 out of first with a game in hand.

 

[koreaboy]

one thing i've learned over the years is you should never get into the game of trying to wish for 1st round playoff opponents. i think one matchup we need to avoid is boston for sure, pittburgh would also be a team i hope we don't get, but other than that, it really doesnt matter who we play and any time we spend hoping for this matchup or that one is wasted. its a crapshoot. the team playing the best down the stretch and in the playoffs wins. doesnt matter where they were going in.

 

[Proust*]

doesnt matter where they were going in.

Are you sure about that?

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

I'm not a huge fan of this website. It doesn't take into account that the odds change when teams are fighting for their lives, so the predictions get really bad near the end of a season.

Just use the 50/50 method, it gives teams a 50% chance of winning any game. You can't account for intangibles and such, but with two teams on the ice one will win and one will lose. I'd go with 53-55 points for the playoffs. We're as close to a lock as can be. Said it a month ago, saying it now. Only thing that can stop us would be an implosion on the road trip.

 

[GOAT]

Different take on % age of making the playoffs. Nice site. Hasn't updated with today's games yet.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternstandings.html

You get identical numbers on SportsClubStats.com when you set it on "50/50" instead of "Weighted". Both are nice sites though. A lot could happen, but its hard to dispute that 54-55 points is the target point total.

 

[ffayyca]

one thing i've learned over the years is you should never get into the game of trying to wish for 1st round playoff opponents. i think one matchup we need to avoid is boston for sure, pittburgh would also be a team i hope we don't get, but other than that, it really doesnt matter who we play and any time we spend hoping for this matchup or that one is wasted. its a crapshoot. the team playing the best down the stretch and in the playoffs wins. doesnt matter where they were going in.

I think last year we lost somewhat on purpose to avoid boston, which was smart. This year I don't like our chances against the habs. The last two games we have been dominated plus in montreal, we would spend half the game on pks.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I think last year we lost somewhat on purpose to avoid boston, which was smart. This year I don't like our chances against the habs. The last two games we have been dominated plus in montreal, we would spend half the game on pks.

Yeah, no we didn't.

 

[koreaboy]

I think last year we lost somewhat on purpose to avoid boston, which was smart.

not a chance. no way.

 

[koreaboy]

i think if we get a clear 2 pts from the rags on thursday night, i think we're pretty much a lock for the playoffs.

 

[Flamingo]

i think if we get a clear 2 pts from the rags on thursday night, i think we're pretty much a lock for the playoffs.

I'll be happy if we get out of that game without Nash injuring someone.

 

[sensrmyheart*]

How many points..

Do we need to clinch? Or better yet clinch the 5th seed?

 

[danishh]

Do we need to clinch? Or better yet clinch the 5th seed?

just bookmark this page: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Ottawa.html

looks like it will be 52 or 53 points to clinch the playoffs, and around 57+ should get us the 5th or 6th seed. 4th seed or higher is more or less out of reach barring an epic collapse from montreal or boston.