92/93, based on his pre-diagnosis play. Of course he would have slowed down, but he would have possibly finished with a higher PPG than he did. Had he played all 84 games, 230-240 points wouldn't have been impossible.
Of course nothing's impossible, but Lemieux's pre-diagnosis play in 1992-93 was actually at the pace of 104 points in 40 games. Mathematically, this projects to an 80-game (Gretzky's highest total) point total of 208, while in the full 84 games to 218.
The thing is, did Lemieux normally sustain his pace in the second half as in the first half? My point is that he didn't, aside from his rookie year, for obvious reasons. In 1985-86, he scored at exactly the same pace in the second half as in the first. In 1987-88, he had 87 points in 40 games, and then 81 in 37 -- those are exactly the same pace. In 1988-89, he had 113 points in the first 40 games (2.83 PPG) and then 86 in 36 (2.39 PPG), a significant drop. In 1989-90, he had 80 points in 40 games (2.00 PPG), and then 43 in 19 (2.26 PPG), but that's too small a sample size for me to really rely on it (he went down to injury in the second half and came back for the last game). In 1995-96, he had 104 points in 40 games (2.60 PPG), and then 57 points in 30 games (1.9 PPG). In 1996-97, he had 70 points in 40 games (1.75 PPG) and then 52 points in 36 games (1.44 PPG). Famously, in 2002-03 he had 68 points in the first 40 games (1.70 PPG), and then 23 points in 27 games after that (0.85 PPG).
Two seasons are exceptions to this rule: 1991-92 and 1992-93. The common factor in each is that he got injured, had time off, and came back.
In 1991-92, he had 75 points in 38 games before injury (1.97 PPG), and then 56 points in 26 games after injury (2.15 PPG). And, as we've (sort of) noted, in 1992-93, he had 104 points in 40 games up to his diagnosis (2.60 PPG), and then 56 points in 20 games after (2.80 PPG). Strange as it sounds, it seems as if Lemieux produced at a higher rate after extended rests... even due to injury.
At no time during his "healthy" seasons did Lemieux increase his pace in the second half over the first half. Therefore, I see no logical reason to guess that a healthy Lemieux in 1992-93 would have increased his pace of 2.60 PPG to reach 230-240 points (though, of course, anything's possible). Indeed, we saw his scoring pace slow down immediately once the Pens' crazy winning streak ended at the end of the season, and through the playoffs.
