nomorekids said:
Exactly. Yes...prices would go down...but so would the bills. You can't compare a system in which fans pay 125 dollars to see 3 million dollar players and the debt created...to a system in which they might pay at most 50 dolalrs to see 150,000 dollar players. The prices would go down...and so would the payrolls.
Drop the emotional attachment that you have to the idea replacements and think it through.
First off, non-player costs will not drop. They'll still need the same trainers, coaches, transportation, equipment, facilities, and staff.
Second, based on the NHL's own proposals, a the idea of $150,000 salaries paid to replacements is entirely unrealistic. In order to get replacements in the first place, the league has to prepare a comprehensive (i.e. complete - all I's dotted and T's crossed) CBA, implement it, and operate under it.
Again, the 62.5% drop in revenues (based on 75% attendance, 50% ticket price) applied to the Levitt report's $1.996B in revenue works out to new league revenues of $748 million. Consider the following two scenarios..
Scenario #1: The league formalizes and implements the $39MM non-linked cap proposal that was offered before the cancellation of the season.
Since salary caps are magnets (as Mr. Bettman claims) all teams will have a payroll of oh, say $37MM. $37MM divided between 690 players works out to an average salary of $1.6 million.
Scenario #2: league formalizes a 55% linked cap proposal..
Based on the $748 million in revenues assumed above: 55% of that is $411 million, split between 690 players works out to an average salary of $596,000 - not $150,000 like you guys are thinking..
Now, take it a step further...
Using $775 million in non-player operating costs from the Levitt report:
Scenario #1 results in total costs of $1.885B and a loss of $1.137B ($38M per team)
Scenario #2 results in total costs of $1.186B and a loss of $438M ($14.6M per team)
According to the Levitt report, losses in 2003 were $273M ($9.1M per team)
Using the league's own proposals and logic, they lose MORE money with replacement players.