Post-Game Talk: Leafs Win!

[ORRFForever]

Matthew is overrated by Leaf fans and now overpaid by Leaf management. He is a VERY good player but he's not THAT good - he is certainly not generational.

He's starts off season(s) like a house on fire and then lives off those early numbers as the season goes on. He can't stay healthy and he is not an every shift presences like Crosby or McDavid.

I also find he is always chasing the play.

Now, does he have a gift for being in the right place at the right time? Yes!

Does he have an amazing shot? Yes!

But let's not overrate the kid.

 

[ORRFForever]

... the contract he signed assumes he can carry his own line. Which is, more than a fair ask for the second highest player in the league.

Amen.

 

[Al14]

if you didnt watch the games and just read these forums, you would think we were the worst team in the league

We can, and, we will... be much better!

 

[ORRFForever]

Matthews had 16 points in the first 7 games of this season.

Since then, he's had 31 points in 33 games and he is currently only 7 points above being a PPG players - all while benefiting from teams focussing on shutting down Marner/Tavares.

Now, while 31 points in 33 games in nothing to sneeze at, it is not the kind of numbers you expect from an $11.6M/yr player.

Let's hope he kicks it up a notch for the remainder of 2019 - ESPECIALLY in the playoffs.

 

[ER89]

Ah, thanks for clearing that up. My mistake.

No worries nith. Continue being awesome!

 

[Al14]

Just stop

You just stop! They GAVE AWAY a decent player!

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Responses like these just blow my mind. Malkin contended for and won the Art Ross trophy in his 3rd year and placed 2nd in his sophomore year. He did this against with his primary competition being prime Ovechkin. If Matthews was actually as good as ELC Malkin, I would be the first one on the main boards bragging about it. But he's not, I just can't lie to myself and say he is.

There is a myriad of problems that comes with trying to compare scoring from different eras, both statistically and practically. It really does blow my mind that folks will slam me for criticizing Babcock and in the very next thread will pretend to be some ****ing stat wizard with their catalog of hilariously cherry-picked nonsense.

I just... I'm done...

You’re struggling with the ice time and usage.

 

[IPS]

You’re struggling with the ice time and usage.

Yup. He's just ice-time and usage away from being a perennial Art Ross contender and top-3 player in the league during these ELC years.

Better pay him like one just in case!

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Yup. He's just ice-time and usage away from being a perennial Art Ross contender and top-3 player in the league during these ELC years.

Better pay him like one just in case!

Basically yea. It’s no mystery that a player that has substantially more ice time than another player, especially PP ice time, scores more. But what the other poster showed that when on the ice 5v5 Matthews point production is on par. He had a “Malkinesque” ELC in terms of production he just had less quality ice time because of how Leafs manage ice time and his injuries.

 

[IPS]

Matthew is overrated by Leaf fans and now overpaid by Leaf management. He is a VERY good player but he's not THAT good - he is certainly not generational.

He's starts off season(s) like a house on fire and then lives off those early numbers as the season goes on. He can't stay healthy and he is not an every shift presences like Crosby or McDavid.

I also find he is always chasing the play.

Now, does he have a gift for being in the right place at the right time? Yes!

Does he have an amazing shot? Yes!

But let's not overrate the kid.

Malkin proved his generational talent status by winning the Art Ross in the 3rd year of his ELC (he also placed 2nd in scoring in his sophomore year). His competition was insane and he beat it. There's only one guy in the Crosby/Malkin/Ovie tier in this era, and that's McDavid.

I find Stamkos to be the more comparable player to Matthews when we're talking ELC standards. Am I being unreasonable for thinking this? Matthews was paid a shade under Malkin and a significant portion more than Stamkos.

 

[IPS]

Basically yea. It’s no mystery that a player that has substantially more ice time than another player, especially PP ice time, scores more. But what the other poster showed that when on the ice 5v5 Matthews point production is on par. He had a “Malkinesque” ELC in terms of production he just had less quality ice time because of how Leafs manage ice time and his injuries.

And these are the same people who will defend Babcock's usage of our star players.

The hypocrisy is astounding.

 

[Al14]

We went into their house and slammed their cupboards

And some of them broke, because they're self closing!

 

[zeke]

Yup. He's just ice-time and usage away from being a perennial Art Ross contender and top-3 player in the league during these ELC years.

true.

 

[Al14]

Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Mango - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Kapenen
Lindholm - Goat - brown

Just my opinion

Who is this Kapenen guy? When did we acquire him?

I know we got someone named Kapanen in the Kessel deal.

 

[ORRFForever]

Malkin proved his generational talent status by winning the Art Ross in the 3rd year of his ELC (he also placed 2nd in scoring in his sophomore year). His competition was insane and he beat it. There's only one guy in the Crosby/Malkin/Ovie tier in this era, and that's McDavid.

I find Stamkos to be the more comparable player to Matthews when we're talking ELC standards. Am I being unreasonable for thinking this? Matthews was paid a shade under Malkin and a significant portion more than Stamkos.

I feel Crosby and McDavid are a step, or 2, above Malkin and O.V.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

And these are the same people who will defend Babcock's usage of our star players.

The hypocrisy is astounding.

If the goal is to get Matthews lots and lots of points then that would be astounding but actually the goal is to win games. Also it’s been fairly well documented that the icetime management regime is an overall sports science and team management thing and not just a coaching decision. IIRC Babcock is more of a “play your best players into the ground” coach since his Detroit days but changed that when he came here under Dubas’ sports science and development system.

Regarding Matthews production 5v5 relative to Malkin last 3yrs: Tableau Public

Matthews has been producing more, and IIRC was very close to Malkins ELC days as well but don’t have the data in front of me on my phone.

 

[IPS]

If the goal is to get Matthews lots and lots of points then that would be astounding but actually the goal is to win games. Also it’s been fairly well documented that the icetime management regime is an overall sports science and team management thing and not just a coaching decision. IIRC Babcock is more of a “play your best players into the ground” coach since his Detroit days but changed that when he came here under Dubas’ sports science and development system.

Regarding Matthews production 5v5 relative to Malkin last 3yrs: Tableau Public

Matthews has been producing more, and IIRC was very close to Malkins ELC days as well but don’t have the data in front of me on my phone.

It's more conducive to winning to play our Malkin-level talent for less minutes? Even with the success of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chiago Blackhawks, and Washington capitals all playing their star players for proper minutes?

But we have this Malkin-level talent who we could play for real star-player minutes but we choose not to despite the most successful teams doing no such thing? And OUR TEAM coming off a pair of 1st round losses.

Do you have any regard for the integrity of your argument?

 

[Nithoniniel]

Responses like these just blow my mind. Malkin contended for and won the Art Ross trophy in his 3rd year and placed 2nd in his sophomore year. He did this against with his primary competition being prime Ovechkin. If Matthews was actually as good as ELC Malkin, I would be the first one on the main boards bragging about it. But he's not, I just can't lie to myself and say he is.

There is a myriad of problems that comes with trying to compare scoring from different eras, both statistically and practically. It really does blow my mind that folks will slam me for criticizing Babcock and in the very next thread will pretend to be some ****ing stat wizard with their catalog of hilariously cherry-picked nonsense.

I just... I'm done...

So you don't believe that getting three times the amount of PP time significantly affects your scoring?

 

[Pi]

So you don't believe that getting three times the amount of PP time significantly affects your scoring?

Not to mention the fact that scoring was much higher right after the 2005 lockout for a few years before it went back down.

Brian Gionta had 48 goals. Teams were getting far more PP opportunities than they currently do.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

It's more conducive to winning to play our Malkin-level talent for less minutes? Even with the success of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chiago Blackhawks, and Washington capitals all playing their star players for proper minutes?

But we have this Malkin-level talent who we could play for real star-player minutes but we choose not to despite the most successful teams doing no such thing? And OUR TEAM coming off a pair of 1st round losses.

Do you have any regard for the integrity of your argument?

Matthews got plenty of 5v5 time but if you recall he had injuries. He’s one of the best 5v5 players in the league and Leafs needed him there because Bozak and JVR were net negative so they ate up PP1.

Leafs had a balanced offensive threat so made use of it, and with Tavares coming in he’ll start to get less 5v5 in exchange for more PP time and you’ll get higher precious point totals that you don’t seem to fully understand.

 

[Pi]

career score/zone-adjusted production:

McDavid: ES 16:36 (A+ qoc), 3.01p/60, 2.33p1/60 ----- PP: 6.38p/60, 4.23p1/60
Matthews: ES 15:02 (A- qoc), 2.73p/60, 2.39p1/60 ----- PP: 6.55p/60, 5.16p1/60
Marner: ES 14:10 (B+ qoc), 2.39p/60, 1.91p1/60 -------- PP: 7.25p/60, 4.95p1/60
Nylander: ES 14:00 (B qoc), 2.05p/60, 1.55p1/60 ------- PP: 5.36p/60, 4.45p1/60

This is the reason why I am totally okay with four first round picks for Marner if it came down to it. He's good but he's had a lot of luck this year and he's still not as good as Matthews. If Marner camp wants to use Matthews as a comparable, tell them to get it from somewhere else and we'll take the 4 picks.

Nylander and Marner are fairly equal with Marner having the edge because he's younger. One got to play with Tavares in his prime in his last year of ELC, one did not.

 

[zeke]

ELC Years

Malkin: 242gms, ES: 14:48, 66gls, 181pts (1.11g/60, 3.03p/60) / PP 5:27, 47gls, 121pts (2.14g/60, 5.51p/60)
Auston: 184gms, ES: 15:33, 77gls, 133pts (1.62g/60, 2.79p/60) / PP 2:21, 21gls, 46pts (2.92g/60, 6.39p/60)

 

[ORRFForever]

So you don't believe that getting three times the amount of PP time significantly affects your scoring?

Let's not get too hung up on the points. If he got additional PP points, it still wouldn't take away from the fact that he is invisible for large chunks of the game.

Also, Matthews benefits from not being the center of the other team's attention - I'm assuming that is the Marner/Tavares line. That has to be helping his production so it all evens out.

 

[ORRFForever]

This is the reason why I am totally okay with four first round picks for Marner if it came down to it. He's good but he's had a lot of luck this year and he's still not as good as Matthews. If Marner camp wants to use Matthews as a comparable, tell them to get it from somewhere else and we'll take the 4 picks.

Nylander and Marner are fairly equal with Marner having the edge because he's younger. One got to play with Tavares in his prime in his last year of ELC, one did not.

Marner is far better than you are giving him credit for.

My guess : He will have a better career than Matthews.

 

[IPS]

Matthews got plenty of 5v5 time but if you recall he had injuries. He’s one of the best 5v5 players in the league and Leafs needed him there because Bozak and JVR were net negative so they ate up PP1.

Leafs had a balanced offensive threat so made use of it, and with Tavares coming in he’ll start to get less 5v5 in exchange for more PP time and you’ll get higher precious point totals that you don’t seem to fully understand.

This is where the dishonesty seriously infuriates me.

The only f***ing reason he even got up to 22nd in EVTOI among forwards last year is because he gets incredibly jipped on PP time which are absolutely crucial minutes to give the best offensive player on your team. He was 71ST in overall ice-time among forwards, SEVENTY FIRST! As of right now, he is 86th in TOI among forwards.

This usage for an alleged Malkin-level talent is nothing short of disgraceful.

And this is all in the name of going against time-tested and proven methods of TOI distribution that all successful teams have used.

I just cannot get over this hypocrisy.