Series Talk: Leafs vs CBJ Part 2

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Morbo

The Annihilator
Jan 14, 2003
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Eh, Sandin will almost certainly be the considerably better D man..... eventually.

But Ceci is certainly the safer be right now for a guy who can eat up 20 minutes of icetime

I mean...in no way has Rasmus Sandin showed he's ready for NHL playoff games. Ceci can hopefully perform better in a more suitable role, as this season he was forced by injury into higher competition. With Rielly Muzzin and Holl back Ceci should be able to handle the Jackets depth forwards.
 

stickty111

Registered User
Jan 23, 2017
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I don't know where you get your numbers from, or if Marner just did well with those Muzzin/Ceci this season, but I am looking at where Marner ranks individually on the PK.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Minimum 50 minutes played on the PK (168 total) from when Keefe took over:
#3 Engvall - 4.35 xGA/60
#8 Mikheyev - 4.55 xGA/60
#38 Hyman - 5.68 xGA/60
#64 Kapanen - 6.03 xGA/60
#114 Marner - 7.00 xGA/60
#158 Gauthier - 8.05 xGA/60

Kerfoot did not really play PK during the regular season.

Other stats like HDCA/60 and SCA/60 put these guys in approximately the same order.
Yup I would cut Marner's PK time if I am Keefe. Let him focus 5 on 5 and PP. His numbers are not pretty on the PK. The only time I would put Marner in is if we have the rare OZ faceoff.
 

Zybalto

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Dec 28, 2012
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I don't know where you get your numbers from, or if Marner just did well with those Muzzin/Ceci this season, but I am looking at where Marner ranks individually on the PK.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Minimum 50 minutes played on the PK (168 total) from when Keefe took over:
#3 Engvall - 4.35 xGA/60
#8 Mikheyev - 4.55 xGA/60
#38 Hyman - 5.68 xGA/60
#64 Kapanen - 6.03 xGA/60
#114 Marner - 7.00 xGA/60
#158 Gauthier - 8.05 xGA/60

Kerfoot did not really play PK during the regular season.

Other stats like HDCA/60 and SCA/60 put these guys in approximately the same order.

I included numbers from the whole season as to give things a bigger sample size but I'll try to stick to just numbers under Keefe although it hurts due to injury issues affecting sample size.
There are a number of factors to take into account when looking at the numbers.

The first is that some of these PK groups were facing top PP units and some were not. As far as I can tell, Engvall, who I think is a fantastic PK guy, was used almost exclusively on the 2nd PK unit while Marner was used on the first. I dont think we should be underestimating the talent drop off between a teams top PP (most teams stack their top PP) and 2nd PP usage. I can only say that, fancy stats aside, in the almost 20 minutes when paired together under Keefe, Muzzin/Ceci/Marner have not surrendered a goal against on the PK. I think its worth considering. That different level of competition combined with the revolving door of injuries makes looking at actual goals against with these pairings a little more important as its ludicrously hard to try and factor in QoC.

Dropping Rielly to the 2nd pairing PK and bringing up Muzzin was the key factor in making the PK truly effective. I think we are underestimating injury factors here but the contrast is pretty striking:

Rielly/Ceci
xGA/60: 7.29
GA/60: 15.32

Muzzin/Holl
xGA/60: 7.16
GA/60: 11.52


Muzzin/Ceci
xGA/60: 5.44
GA/60: 2.98

Reilly/Holl
xGA/60: 2.98
GA/60: 3.07

Isnt it nice to see how great our PK can look when healthy under Keefe?
Due to injury issues, it really is hard to get a read on how forwards performed on the PK overall though. Dermott/Holl also performed quite well against 2nd PPs under Keefe.

Basically, I'm defending Marner here as a guy who is one of the guys playing top line PK duty along with Hyman and Mikheyev (who has a pretty small sample size under Keefe but still impressive) There is some small overlap of course but he's been better than the advanced stats indicate IMO. Injuries have really muddied the water as well.

Can we at least agree that Gauthier sucks?
 
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SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
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I included numbers from the whole season as to give things a bigger sample size but I'll try to stick to just numbers under Keefe although it hurts due to injury issues affecting sample size.
There are a number of factors to take into account when looking at the numbers.

The first is that some of these PK groups were facing top PP units and some were not. As far as I can tell, Engvall, who I think is a fantastic PK guy, was used almost exclusively on the 2nd PK unit while Marner was used on the first. I dont think we should be underestimating the talent drop off between a teams top PP (most teams stack their top PP) and 2nd PP usage. I can only say that, fancy stats aside, in the almost 20 minutes when paired together under Keefe, Muzzin/Ceci/Marner have not surrendered a goal against on the PK. I think its worth considering. That different level of competition combined with the revolving door of injuries makes looking at actual goals against with these pairings a little more important as its ludicrously hard to try and factor in QoC.

Dropping Rielly to the 2nd pairing PK and bringing up Muzzin was the key factor in making the PK truly effective. I think we are underestimating injury factors here but the contrast is pretty striking:

Rielly/Ceci
xGA/60: 7.29
GA/60: 15.32

Muzzin/Holl
xGA/60: 7.16
GA/60: 11.52


Muzzin/Ceci
xGA/60: 5.44
GA/60: 2.98

Reilly/Holl
xGA/60: 2.98
GA/60: 3.07

Isnt it nice to see how great our PK can look when healthy under Keefe?
Due to injury issues, it really is hard to get a read on how forwards performed on the PK overall though. Dermott/Holl also performed quite well against 2nd PPs under Keefe.

Basically, I'm defending Marner here as a guy who is one of the guys playing top line PK duty along with Hyman and Mikheyev (who has a pretty small sample size under Keefe but still impressive) There is some small overlap of course but he's been better than the advanced stats indicate IMO. Injuries have really muddied the water as well.

Can we at least agree that Gauthier sucks?

Gauthier is not going to be getting in if we have Kerfoot and especially Engvall in the lineup to PK. Gauthier's value is that he is a smart defensive player, a good forechecker, a big body and someone who can win draws. Right now, we don't need him to PK unless one of our PK centers (Kerfoot and Hyman) are in the box.

Marner was a much better PKer last year, but I wouldn't put him in over Mikheyev, Kapanen or Engvall (when in the lineup) right now. Since Engvall is sitting, Marner may get PK minutes if the units are tired, he hasn't played for a while, or Mikheyev/Kapanen are in the box, but I am not sure I would use him as a main PKer... Especially when he should be playing a disproportionate amount of 5-on-5 and PP minutes. Mikheyev is a great PKer and Kapanen has better breakaway speed, and is not as important in other situations.

Interesting to see the defense... Minimum of 30 minutes (just so I can include Rielly, who was injured for half of that time and only had 35 PK minutes) of PK since November 20th, 2019:

#1 Rielly 4.31 xGA/60
#28 Dermott 5.41 xGA/60
#35 Holl 5.55 xGA/60
#44 Ceci 5.74 xGA/60
#48 Muzzin 5.92 xGA/60
#79 Marincin 6.62 xGA/60

This is out of 160 eligible defensemen. We have plenty of good options for our special teams. Columbus' PK is better though. We are like #3, they are #1. We just need Andersen to be much better than he has been.
 

Nylander88

Registered User
Aug 13, 2016
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Was I not paying enough attention or is Kerfoot not pretty new to the PK.. at least with us here in Toronto I mean. I don't remember seeing him much. Hyman, Mikheyev, Marner,Kapanen, Engvall and then sometimes Gauthier and Spezza if there was a faceoff. I don't remember seeing much of Kerfoot. But he looked great there last game. Hope he continues in the PK either way.
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

Registered User
Sep 28, 2015
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Was I not paying enough attention or is Kerfoot not pretty new to the PK.. at least with us here in Toronto I mean. I don't remember seeing him much. Hyman, Mikheyev, Marner,Kapanen, Engvall and then sometimes Gauthier and Spezza if there was a faceoff. I don't remember seeing much of Kerfoot. But he looked great there last game. Hope he continues in the PK either way.
nope, you are right. He only played 18 seconds of PK time per game this season. He didn't really kill penalties with Colorado either
 
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SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
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Was I not paying enough attention or is Kerfoot not pretty new to the PK.. at least with us here in Toronto I mean. I don't remember seeing him much. Hyman, Mikheyev, Marner,Kapanen, Engvall and then sometimes Gauthier and Spezza if there was a faceoff. I don't remember seeing much of Kerfoot. But he looked great there last game. Hope he continues in the PK either way.

nope, you are right. He only played 18 seconds of PK time per game this season. He didn't really kill penalties with Colorado either

Well he looked really good against Montreal, so that is a positive. No reason not to try it, since we do have a few proven backup plans.

Keefe probably knows he needs a guy who can win draws on the PK.
 
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CantLoseWithMatthews

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Sep 28, 2015
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Well he looked really good against Montreal, so that is a positive. No reason not to try it, since we do have a few proven backup plans.

Keefe probably knows he needs a guy who can win draws on the PK.
I do like Kerfoot playing, because it at least shows a willingness to adjust what went wrong with the PK in the fast. I don't really understand not playing Engvall, since he's been the best PKer on the team and Gauthier is one of the worst
 

Nylander88

Registered User
Aug 13, 2016
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Well he looked really good against Montreal, so that is a positive. No reason not to try it, since we do have a few proven backup plans.

Keefe probably knows he needs a guy who can win draws on the PK.
Not that draws are Kerfoot's calling card, but at least he's a natural center and better than letting Hyman and Marner take draws like we've done in the past
 

Nylander88

Registered User
Aug 13, 2016
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I do like Kerfoot playing, because it at least shows a willingness to adjust what went wrong with the PK in the fast. I don't really understand not playing Engvall, since he's been the best PKer on the team and Gauthier is one of the worst
I'm not team Gauthier by any means... But the Goat is one of our best at faceoffs. Neither Engvall or Gauthier looked great from what I saw last game and in the "training camp". If you check the stats, Gauthier hits more than Engvall too. Maybe Faceoffs and Physicality is why Keefe is going Goat for at least game 1. And yes I know he's not a physical beast like he should be and we all wish he would be, but he's more physical than Engvall if you look at the hit stats
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

Registered User
Sep 28, 2015
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I'm not team Gauthier by any means... But the Goat is one of our best at faceoffs. Neither Engvall or Gauthier looked great from what I saw last game and in the "training camp". If you check the stats, Gauthier hits more than Engvall too. Maybe Faceoffs and Physicality is why Keefe is going Goat for at least game 1. And yes I know he's not a physical beast like he should be and we all wish he would be, but he's more physical than Engvall if you look at the hit stats
well to Gauthier's credit, he was pretty lousy in the regular season last year and then stepped up in the playoffs defensively. He was also pretty good for Keefe on the Marlies championship run I believe. So maybe he'll step up again
 

Zybalto

Registered User
Dec 28, 2012
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Gauthier is not going to be getting in if we have Kerfoot and especially Engvall in the lineup to PK. Gauthier's value is that he is a smart defensive player, a good forechecker, a big body and someone who can win draws. Right now, we don't need him to PK unless one of our PK centers (Kerfoot and Hyman) are in the box.

Marner was a much better PKer last year, but I wouldn't put him in over Mikheyev, Kapanen or Engvall (when in the lineup) right now. Since Engvall is sitting, Marner may get PK minutes if the units are tired, he hasn't played for a while, or Mikheyev/Kapanen are in the box, but I am not sure I would use him as a main PKer... Especially when he should be playing a disproportionate amount of 5-on-5 and PP minutes. Mikheyev is a great PKer and Kapanen has better breakaway speed, and is not as important in other situations.

Interesting to see the defense... Minimum of 30 minutes (just so I can include Rielly, who was injured for half of that time and only had 35 PK minutes) of PK since November 20th, 2019:

#1 Rielly 4.31 xGA/60
#28 Dermott 5.41 xGA/60
#35 Holl 5.55 xGA/60
#44 Ceci 5.74 xGA/60
#48 Muzzin 5.92 xGA/60
#79 Marincin 6.62 xGA/60

This is out of 160 eligible defensemen. We have plenty of good options for our special teams. Columbus' PK is better though. We are like #3, they are #1. We just need Andersen to be much better than he has been.


Oh, I completely agree that Andersen has been masking good play by the Leafs this year, including on the PK.

The main thrust of what I was saying is that those on the first PK unit face such a higher level of QoC, you can't really compare them defensively to 2nd pairing PK usage. You can make an argument that Engvall deserves to be bumped up to the first PK unit but unitl he's been thrown out against fresh Ovi and McDavids for a minute and a half on a regular basis, he's not comparable to PKers who are put in that position.
 

Cobra777

Registered User
Jun 26, 2018
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Yesterday I lost my dog who has been battling cancer since March.

Do it for my boy, Leafs.
fFjwPvG.jpg
So sorry man and condolences, I lost my Marema Italian Sheepdog Nico just before last Christmas and still kinda break down when I think of him
 

Ciao

Registered User
Jul 15, 2010
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Toronto
The first thing I've noticed about Matthews is that he's been using his size and strength like I've seldom seem him do before. For example, in Game 1 he had Seth Jones on his back in the right-wing corner, and he fought Jones back to retain control of the puck. He was overwhelming. In Game 2 I saw him finish a check behind the Columbus goal that he could have turned away from, causing the kind of crash I don't usually hear from the Leafs. Last night I didn't care who would win or lose the game -- just watching the Leafs play a complete, competitive, physical game would have been enough for me because regardless of the isolated outcome they will win eventually if they continue to play that way.

I think Matthews has set the tone in both games, and in Game 2 the entire Leafs' team followed suit.

When the Leafs play Boston I sometimes close my eyes and listen to which end of the ice the play is in. When I hear crashing into the boards, the play is in the Leafs' end. Usually it's a Boston forward pasting a Leafs' defenceman into the boards as he releases the puck. It's a present the Bruins never fail to deliver at every single opportunity, and the Leafs almost never reciprocate.

In Game 1 I watched one of my favourite players (truly, I have a soft spot for him) Freddy Gauthier come crashing down the ice and gently pull up and sidle beside a Columbus defenceman as he released the puck behind the Columbus net. He might as well have asked how the other guy's wife and kids are while he was there. He should have pasted him into the boards as he released the puck, but it's just not in Freddy's nature to do that and for that reason he will not be missed and he is not going to make it as an NHL player. He simply needs to have the mean streak his just does not possess.

Last night I saw the Leafs' players really extend themselves physically, dominating individual Blue Jackets on one-on-one puck battles and coming back with second- and third-efforts to retain or regain control of the puck. That is the missing link -- the thing they need to do all night long, shift-in shift-out, every night to win games but just hasn't been in their repertoire. Last night they look pissed-off and angry enough to finally do that on a consistent basis, and I think that is the reason they won.

It doesn't matter how talented you are if you don't out-dog the other team for the puck.

And they all did it, all night long.

If the Leafs could only learn to do that all the time, relentlessly, their obvious talent would begin to shine through and they would have the opportunity to go far in these playoffs.

I won't hold my breath, though, as this is still a young team and the learning process is never drawn in straight lines.

I do think Matthews might be there now, though, and if so eventually I think the rest of the team will follow along. Even the
Captain, as Matthews is the true leader of the Leafs, and what he does everyone else will take notice and copy.
 

Ciao

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I might try that in a sophistical, but also in a real hard way during these playoffs. This will keep us suckas on focus as other organizations are hating on us and being motivated by hate. That goes real deep mayne.
Why not partner with another poster who can do the graphics while you give your incomparable narrative on the GDT?
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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The first thing I've noticed about Matthews is that he's been using his size and strength like I've seldom seem him do before. For example, in Game 1 he had Seth Jones on his back in the right-wing corner, and he fought Jones back to retain control of the puck. He was overwhelming. In Game 2 I saw him finish a check behind the Columbus goal that he could have turned away from, causing the kind of crash I don't usually hear from the Leafs. Last night I didn't care who would win or lose the game -- just watching the Leafs play a complete, competitive, physical game would have been enough for me because regardless of the isolated outcome they will win eventually if they continue to play that way.

I think Matthews has set the tone in both games, and in Game 2 the entire Leafs' team followed suit.

When the Leafs play Boston I sometimes close my eyes and listen to which end of the ice the play is in. When I hear crashing into the boards, the play is in the Leafs' end. Usually it's a Boston forward pasting a Leafs' defenceman into the boards as he releases the puck. It's a present the Bruins never fail to deliver at every single opportunity, and the Leafs almost never reciprocate.

In Game 1 I watched one of my favourite players (truly, I have a soft spot for him) Freddy Gauthier come crashing down the ice and gently pull up and sidle beside a Columbus defenceman as he released the puck behind the Columbus net. He might as well have asked how the other guy's wife and kids are while he was there. He should have pasted him into the boards as he released the puck, but it's just not in Freddy's nature to do that and for that reason he will not be missed and he is not going to make it as an NHL player. He simply needs to have the mean streak his just does not possess.

Last night I saw the Leafs' players really extend themselves physically, dominating individual Blue Jackets on one-on-one puck battles and coming back with second- and third-efforts to retain or regain control of the puck. That is the missing link -- the thing they need to do all night long, shift-in shift-out, every night to win games but just hasn't been in their repertoire. Last night they look pissed-off and angry enough to finally do that on a consistent basis, and I think that is the reason they won.

It doesn't matter how talented you are if you don't out-dog the other team for the puck.

And they all did it, all night long.

If the Leafs could only learn to do that all the time, relentlessly, their obvious talent would begin to shine through and they would have the opportunity to go far in these playoffs.

I won't hold my breath, though, as this is still a young team and the learning process is never drawn in straight lines.

I do think Matthews might be there now, though, and if so eventually I think the rest of the team will follow along. Even the
Captain, as Matthews is the true leader of the Leafs, and what he does everyone else will take notice and copy.

Yup. I said it long time ago - if Matthews starts playing with a physical edge, he will be scary. And I hope you're right about the rest of the team following.

The best thing about these first two games is our team D. Some of us have been saying for a long time now that our D is better than people think and also that defence is a team thing and is on the forwards too, not just the Dmen. Well they showed everyone how well this team can play D and I have to say that it's impressive! I know it's just 2 games and I know it's just CLB but still, it's a damn fine start.
 
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Ciao

Registered User
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Toronto
Yup. I said it long time ago - if Matthews starts playing with a physical edge, he will be scary. And I hope you're right about the rest of the team following.

The best thing about these first two games is our team D. Some of us have been saying for a long time now that our D is better than people think and also that defence is a team thing and is on the forwards too, not just the Dmen. Well they showed everyone how well this team can play D and I have to say that it's impressive! I know it's just 2 games and I know it's just CLB but still, it's a damn fine start.
It's like Mark Messier and the Rangers. If Matthew's shows some snarl it will be in style and everyone else will have some snarl too.

Except for maybe Friendly Freddy Gauthier. Much as I love the guy and want him to succeed, I've pretty much lost hope that he has any snarl to offer.
 
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leafsfan5

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Jun 14, 2014
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One thing, a huge shoutout to Keefe for making some adjustments after game 1

He didn't have to change the lines and could've stuck to his horses after game 1. And in all honesty there couldn't be too much criticism for it since it was such a close game where we had chances. But, he made the Nylander/Marner switch and it worked out much better for us. His adjustment against Torts system was also great, we came in waves offensively and in the defensive zone our forwards helped down low to alleviate the pressure quickly and ensure the cycle didn't start. I love having a coach who isn't afraid to mix it up

We need to fix the PP though, I felt when Marner/Matthews switched sides the chances starting coming so we might need to keep going with that.
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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In my opinion? Nothing. Gauthier/Engvall sit. You ease Johnsson back in and give him 4th line and second PP. Clifford-Spezza-Johnsson. Johnsson gains traction you move him up with Kerfoot-Kapanen and knock Robertson down with Clifford-Spezza. Play your best players. We still have PK forwards so the need for Goat and Engvall isn't really there. Marner, Mikheyev,Kapanen,Hyman,Kerfoot. And Johnsson or Robertson could play there too if need be. Unless Robertson tires out or suddenly looks like he is overwhelmed, I think he's here to stay
I dont see a huge lift of Robertson over Engvall. Better to keep Robertson below 10 games and let his contract slide. Engvall is a useable piece to move later. Give him a chance to increase his exposure and bring his value up.
 

LeafsNation75

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Jan 15, 2010
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Toronto, Ontario
I dont see a huge lift of Robertson over Engvall. Better to keep Robertson below 10 games and let his contract slide. Engvall is a useable piece to move later. Give him a chance to increase his exposure and bring his value up.
So assuming the Leafs win this series and Andreas Johnsson is able to return, do you think Robertson comes out of the lineup?

If so I guess the only way he can force Keefe to keep playing him if he scores some goals.
 
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