Leafs reduced in close shot chances

[Morlu]

I would love an analyst to start compiling stats like this and shooting % based on shot location.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I found that stat on the Preds forum. https://twitter.com/Forechecker/status/388662255333933056

Guy apparently runs a sports site @ http://www.ontheforecheck.com/

Seems legit. I found that stat interesting so I shared it. Seems pretty accurate based on tsn's shot images.

Thanks, I'll check it out further this weekend. And based on those images it does look legit.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

interesting stuff. Maybe there is a method to the Leafs shot allowing ways...lol

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Can't stand when people who don't' even watch the game comment on the shots the Leafs give up. Sure they gave up 36, but how many of those were from the perimeter? Shots on goal is like the +/- stat...it doesn't tell the whole story.

Yes, we were out shot but we still got the win. Imagine when this team starts clicking? Keep on hating haters.

 

[The Legend]

interesting stuff. Maybe there is a method to the Leafs shot allowing ways...lol

I doubt there's a method - as in I doubt that the game plan is just to allow a crazy amount of shots - but it's possible that our team is structured so that we can in spite of that happening.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Agree this is an awesome job by the OP which is something I pick up ok when watching the game.. Not the number of shots, rather where the shots are coming from and are there second/third chances

A basic way could be: The offensive zone would have to be broken out by markings on the ice, and then the number of goals per shot attempt can be easily calculated.. HOWEVER, it's not just the shot going in rather the scoring chance generated so you'd have to create a multiplier for the degree of difficulty it is for the goalie to control the rebound from that shot - which is the hardest part... I don't think you can factor in third/fourth chances after that because the data would be immeasurable and those chances are somewhat rare

This is just off the top of my head:

For each zone - (shots scored on/shots attempted)*probability of rebound

The probability of rebound would need a data set of shots from each zone to see if there is a rebound or not .. Of course not all rebounds are the same so it's a hard number to peg to a tee

something like shots/average distance of shots could be a little telling.

Would you rate 40 shots from average of 30 feet or 20 shots from 15 feet, would you rate that about the same in terms of chances of scoring x number of goals?

Obviously some experimentation would have to be done to come up with a perfect formula, but more shots increases your chances of a goal, but better shots(closer shots for example) would increase that as well so shots/distance could be a decent guideline, maybe shots^2/distance

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

In scoring chance from 20 feet and in, the Leafs out shot the Preds 13 to 5, game over, winner , winner, chicken dinner.

 

[Stephen]

It's called less rebounds...

 

[BayStreetBullies*]

The Leafs box out opposing teams, forcing low quality perimeter shots?

It's almost as if we've been saying that all along.

I thought the answer by default was "Bernier".

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Being out shot does not mean you were out played. It doesn't matter how many you shoot, but when you do shoot you need to make them count.

 

[Liminality]

The Leafs box out opposing teams, forcing low quality perimeter shots?

It's almost as if we've been saying that all along.

Yeah, weird how that works.

 

[Gutchecktime]

Any way to get the Average Shot Distance for each of the games we've played so far for us vs our opponent?

I know that Extra Skater has all the shot distances but is there somewhere that will average it?

 

[Confucius]

Being out shot does not mean you were out played. It doesn't matter how many you shoot, but when you do shoot you need to make them count.

I remember when we first started playing the USSR, they never shot always waiting for the almost sure goal. They'd take 20 shots a game and score 4 times.

 

[Garbs]

Can we make this an official thread and post a picture from every game?

I really want to track shots we allow the slot, versus how many we take. So far Philadelphia is the only team to outshoot us.

 

[BayStreetBullies*]

Can we make this an officially thread and post a picture from every game?

I really want to track shots we allow the slot, versus how many we take. So far Philadelphia is the only team to outshoot us.

The Avs and Preds have also outshot us.

 

[Garbs]

The Avs and Preds have also outshot us.

Philadelphia is the only team to outshoot us in the slot.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Half of our roster are rookies and we are winning games despite injuries.

According to some, we shouldn't be happy to win because of Corsi ratings and crap like that

 

[Kyle Doobas*]

Based on last season, we're already one of the better teams out there as far as keeping the opposition to the outside and forcing low-quality chances/pointless perimeter play. The Nashville commentators noted this several times throughout the last game - that while they had the puck way more than us, they somehow were getting a lot less done with it.

Bernier is a good goalie anyway, but his strengths are especially perfect for our style of play. Our defense must be loving how often he kills the play by, you know, catching the puck, giving them a chance to get off the ice.

 

[CellarDweller0]

Can we make this an official thread and post a picture from every game?

I really want to track shots we allow the slot, versus how many we take. So far Philadelphia is the only team to outshoot us.

I'm game for maintaining it. Can I edit the original post to keep adding pics?

edit/ Looks like I can so if you folks want ill keep updating the OP with each game.

 

[The Legend]

I'm game for maintaining it. Can I edit the original post to keep adding pics?

edit/ Looks like I can so if you folks want ill keep updating the OP with each game.

That'd be great thanks.

 

[The Legend]

According to some, we shouldn't be happy to win because of Corsi ratings and crap like that

Who said that?

 

[rojac]

I'm game for maintaining it. Can I edit the original post to keep adding pics?

edit/ Looks like I can so if you folks want ill keep updating the OP with each game.

I'd suggest reversing the order of the pics so that the most recent game is on the top and, thus, the first thing that the viewer sees. Just saves a lot of scrolling.

 

[AlienWorkShop]

This is the future of analytics in my opinion. Someone needs to figure out a way to quantify the shot location spots into measurable data.

Check out this thread here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1490701

There are some quibbles here and there, and I'm not sure it's going to lead to any useful conclusions in the end, but an interesting piece of work (by a 17 year old no less!)

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Can anyone overlay the game by game shot charts from the OP on top of this image:

 

[Daisy Jane]

going to laugh really hard when I see the edmonton one.