Leafs reduced in close shot chances

[CellarDweller0]

I was just checking out ESPN Gamecast (I know I know) to get an idea of where the competition have been taking their shots. I noticed that in the last three games the Leafs have been able to noticeably reduce the # of in-close shots on goal.

Check it out and comment:

Click to read more...

 

[namttebih]

I was just checking out ESPN Gamecast (I know I know) to get an idea of where the competition have been taking their shots. I noticed that in the last three games the Leafs have been able to noticeably reduce the # of in-close shots on goal.

Check it out and comment:

Hey D

On top of that, either the opposition hasn't been getting guys to the net or our guys have actually been clearing a path for our goaltender's to see.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Leafs are missing 4 regular players, may be 5 in next game, but still better than Habs & Sens, not bad at all.

 

[CellarDweller0]

Funny thing is, this is after Fraser was knocked out of the lineup during the Philly game.

Also makes me wonder if this is is partly the reason the Bernier appears to be better than Reimer. I still think he is which is why I say "partly".

 

[KomiMon]

Bernie controls his rebounds really well which eliminates those close up second and third chances.

 

[namttebih]

Funny thing is, this is after Fraser was knocked out of the lineup during the Philly game.

Also makes me wonder if this is is partly the reason the Bernier appears to be better than Reimer. I still think he is which is why I say "partly".

I think that it's the other way around. There haven't been as many shots from the slot because rebounds haven't been left there.

 

[CellarDweller0]

Bernie controls his rebounds really well which eliminates those close up second and third chances.

I think that it's the other way around. There haven't been as many shots from the slot because rebounds haven't been left there.

That makes sense, never thought of that.

 

[Morlu]

Yea found this from last nights game. It really tells a different story that SOG and Corsi.


Average distance of #Preds shots on goal last night = 40.6. Average for #Leafs = 30.3. TOR had 13 shots from <20 ft, NSH only 5.

 

[7even]

I think that it's the other way around. There haven't been as many shots from the slot because rebounds haven't been left there.

My first thought as well.

All pretty anecdotal, but you can't complain about the results.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Very interesting. How do you generate these pictures?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yea found this from last nights game. It really tells a different story that SOG and Corsi.


Average distance of #Preds shots on goal last night = 40.6. Average for #Leafs = 30.3. TOR had 13 shots from <20 ft, NSH only 5.

And what's your source for this? Thanks!

 

[Grant]

Very interesting. How do you generate these pictures?

They are just there for the taking.

TSN has a very similar thing as well. Basically when you go to the scores page, instead of clicking on 'boxscore' click on 'gametracker'

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/scores/?date=October/10/2013

And then you can fiddle around with things too. Such as look at shots by period, even strength or PP. Can also look at things such as where hits took place or blocked shots.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Just moot quibbling but the Sarich goal was not from the faceoff dot...

 

[Garbs]

The Leafs box out opposing teams, forcing low quality perimeter shots?

It's almost as if we've been saying that all along.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Thx Grant. Looking forward to hearing where Morlu got his numbers from as well, cool stuff that should help me out when I'm arguing with Corsi/Fenwick worshippers.

 

[CellarDweller0]

Thx Grant. Looking forward to hearing where Morlu got his numbers from as well, cool stuff that should help me out when I'm arguing with Corsi/Fenwick worshippers.

Posts like this make me wish we had a "Like" button.

 

[The Legend]

I was just checking out ESPN Gamecast (I know I know) to get an idea of where the competition have been taking their shots. I noticed that in the last three games the Leafs have been able to noticeably reduce the # of in-close shots on goal.

Check it out and comment:

This is the future of analytics in my opinion. Someone needs to figure out a way to quantify the shot location spots into measurable data.

 

[The Legend]

Yea found this from last nights game. It really tells a different story that SOG and Corsi.


Average distance of #Preds shots on goal last night = 40.6. Average for #Leafs = 30.3. TOR had 13 shots from <20 ft, NSH only 5.

This is great information. How'd you find it?

 

[Grant]

This is the future of analytics in my opinion. Someone needs to figure out a way to quantify the shot location spots into measurable data.

Well I liked the average shot distance to the net stat that Morlu had. Although we were outshot by 10, our shots were on average 25% closer, pretty significant.

 

[Hawaiinleaf]

You all know Mark Fraser will improve this enormously

 

[BertCorbeau]

This is the future of analytics in my opinion. Someone needs to figure out a way to quantify the shot location spots into measurable data.

Agree this is an awesome job by the OP which is something I pick up ok when watching the game.. Not the number of shots, rather where the shots are coming from and are there second/third chances

A basic way could be: The offensive zone would have to be broken out by markings on the ice, and then the number of goals per shot attempt can be easily calculated.. HOWEVER, it's not just the shot going in rather the scoring chance generated so you'd have to create a multiplier for the degree of difficulty it is for the goalie to control the rebound from that shot - which is the hardest part... I don't think you can factor in third/fourth chances after that because the data would be immeasurable and those chances are somewhat rare

This is just off the top of my head:

For each zone - (shots scored on/shots attempted)*probability of rebound

The probability of rebound would need a data set of shots from each zone to see if there is a rebound or not .. Of course not all rebounds are the same so it's a hard number to peg to a tee

 

[eddieO]

This is the future of analytics in my opinion. Someone needs to figure out a way to quantify the shot location spots into measurable data.

Yes! Until then, none of these stats are effective in predicting a team's success.

You need to rate "shot quality", as in deciphering between a hard accurate wrist shot, a seeing-eye slapshot as opposed to say, fanning on a shot or a dribble to the net.

Then you need to factor in "shot location", a shot from the slot is worth more than a shot from outside the blue line.

In baseball, the mother of all sports in terms of stats, they still are learning new advanced stats. In fact, advanced stats have been known to be 'busted' all the time. People look at Moneyball and the Oakland A's for that *one* season like they won the world series.

Advanced stats in hockey are truly a joke.

 

[The Legend]

Well I liked the average shot distance to the net stat that Morlu had. Although we were outshot by 10, our shots were on average 25% closer, pretty significant.

I'd love to know much more information though.

For instance, what's our shooting percentage in specific locations on the ice? We all know that the Leafs have a very high shooting percentage that many believe to be unsustainable. But what if it was discovered that our shooting percentage in many of the key areas was league average? That it was the fact that we don't shoot from the outside unsuccessfully as much as other teams that is dragging up our shooting percentage?

 

[Morlu]

I found that stat on the Preds forum. https://twitter.com/Forechecker/status/388662255333933056

Guy apparently runs a sports site @ http://www.ontheforecheck.com/

Seems legit. I found that stat interesting so I shared it. Seems pretty accurate based on tsn's shot images.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Half of our roster are rookies and we are winning games despite injuries.