Leafs Magic Number
- Thread starter The Apologist
- Start date
Leafs can clinch with earning 4 points in any fashion. It is not possible given the matchups left for all of EDM/WPG/MTL/VAN to have 69+ points and 24+ RWs.
VAN needs 11 regulation wins to match the Leafs' total, but since 7 of their remaining games are against WPG and EDM, at least 4 of those would need to be in regulation. That leaves only a maximum of 137 total points possible between WPG and EDM granting MTL also winning out.
VAN needs 11 regulation wins to match the Leafs' total, but since 7 of their remaining games are against WPG and EDM, at least 4 of those would need to be in regulation. That leaves only a maximum of 137 total points possible between WPG and EDM granting MTL also winning out.
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Wafflewhipper
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2014
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I want the division and move up in the league as high as possible. The more last change the better. I’m hoping they run the table.
The Leafs have clinched now I don't need to see the X I know they are in.
correct me if i am wrong, but can the leafs clinch a playoff spot tomorrow with a ROW victory over the habs and regulation loss for canucks against the sens?
Yes. Best Vancouver could do is get 67 points but they could only get to 29 ROW ....Leafs would be at 30.
They would still be able to win the first tiebreaker and get 26 RWs to Toronto's 25. However, that would also mean winning enough games in regulation to put one of Edm or Wpg to no more than 66 points, so Leafs would clinch nonetheless.
Yes. The worst possible scenario would be a five-way tie at 67 points, but VAN wouldn't be able to get enough RWs without taking away more points from EDM/WPG.
1. EDM - 67, 28 RWs
2. WPG - 67, 25 RWs
3. MTL - 67, 25 RWs
4. TOR - 67, 25 RWs
5. VAN - 67, 24 RWs
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The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
I think at this point it's highly unlikely EDM or Wpg catch us.
Le Cobra
Rent A Goalie
We need to get the best matchup as possible. So finish as high as possible. Rest our star players/load mgmt for the last 3-4 games. Which team is less of a playoff team? Price gets hot in the postseason, McDavid will go god mode, VAN has our number...I prefer Winnipeg first. Then I will take my chances with MTL over EDM, although EDM has a bad track record vs our goalies. Not sure if that will translate over to the playoffs
Cams
Registered User
Interesting....EDM/WPG have one more game against each other - tonight. EDM also plays VAN 5 of their last 7!
stickty111
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- Jan 23, 2017
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I know it's inevitable but seeing that "x-" next to Leafs always gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling inside. Hope it happens tonight
Brown Dog
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- Jun 23, 2007
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When the Leafs clinch, I replace the Canadian flag in the backyard with the Leafs flag. Hoping to see it flying tonight!
Wafflewhipper
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2014
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Bomber0104
Registered User
Magic number?
Are people still stuck in the JFJ/Burke/Nonis-era mindset of trying to squeak in the playoffs?
Are people still stuck in the JFJ/Burke/Nonis-era mindset of trying to squeak in the playoffs?
I thought our magic number is #13. Mats and the final lottery ball that got us Matthews 
conFABulator
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2021
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As of Wednesday afternoon, I think the numbers are:
Each of these numbers might actually be 1-less than I am showing as these are what it takes for the Leafs to clinch outright and not have to rely on tie-breakers. In each case, 1 point less in the magic number would mean we are in a tie and may win on whatever the tie-breaker is at that point.
Does all of this seem correct? Missing anything? Anyone help with tie-breaker analysis or is it too early to forecast that?
To clinch a playoff spot: 5 (Montreal - any combination of Leafs points gained/Canadiens points missed equalling 5 and we clinch a playoff spot) .
If the Leafs get 5 more points this year they will end up with 70 on the year. Montreal currently has 51 points and 9 games remaining. If they go 9-0 they end up with 69 points. Our magic number with Vancouver is 9 using the same logic. So Montreal is the lower and more likely to hit first number.
To clinch home-ice (finishing top 2 in the division): 9 (Winnipeg - any combination of Leafs points gained/Jets points missed equalling 9 and we clinch home ice in the first round)
To clinch the division title: 14 (Edmonton - - any combination of Leafs points gained/Oilers points missed equalling 14 and we clinch home ice in the division)
If the Leafs get 5 more points this year they will end up with 70 on the year. Montreal currently has 51 points and 9 games remaining. If they go 9-0 they end up with 69 points. Our magic number with Vancouver is 9 using the same logic. So Montreal is the lower and more likely to hit first number.
To clinch home-ice (finishing top 2 in the division): 9 (Winnipeg - any combination of Leafs points gained/Jets points missed equalling 9 and we clinch home ice in the first round)
To clinch the division title: 14 (Edmonton - - any combination of Leafs points gained/Oilers points missed equalling 14 and we clinch home ice in the division)
Each of these numbers might actually be 1-less than I am showing as these are what it takes for the Leafs to clinch outright and not have to rely on tie-breakers. In each case, 1 point less in the magic number would mean we are in a tie and may win on whatever the tie-breaker is at that point.
Does all of this seem correct? Missing anything? Anyone help with tie-breaker analysis or is it too early to forecast that?
Someone explain the latter to me.
How does Edmonton and Winnipeg finishing in regulation help us clinch a playoff spot? Lol.
cupcrazyman
Stupid Sexy Flanders
Opinion | Power rankings: The Leafs are back on top, but about that magic number ...
Ottawa can’t catch the Leafs, so that’s one down. Neither can the suddenly hot Flames, so that’s two.
But sixth-place Vancouver — with all their games in hand – can still earn 71 points as of Monday morning. The Leafs have 65, so seven points in the magic number there.
However, Montreal — holding down the fourth and final playoff spot — can only get to 67 points (depending on how things go against Calgary on Monday night).
So 3 points — gained by the Leafs, surrendered by Montreal or some combination of the two — is all the Leafs need to clinch.
Ottawa can’t catch the Leafs, so that’s one down. Neither can the suddenly hot Flames, so that’s two.
But sixth-place Vancouver — with all their games in hand – can still earn 71 points as of Monday morning. The Leafs have 65, so seven points in the magic number there.
However, Montreal — holding down the fourth and final playoff spot — can only get to 67 points (depending on how things go against Calgary on Monday night).
So 3 points — gained by the Leafs, surrendered by Montreal or some combination of the two — is all the Leafs need to clinch.
VAN plays EDM/WPG 7 times and MTL plays them 3 times. So in order for both teams to get as many points and RWs as the Leafs, they would be taking away too many from EDM and/or WPG unless the EDM/WPG tonight is a 3 point game.
Because of the other matchups going on, TOR clinches outright with 69 points regardless of how the other games turn out. There is no possible way for them to lose the tiebreaker at 69 because the other teams play each other and can't all get both 69 pts and 24 RWs. So it is 5 points if we are considering other teams helping, and 4 if TOR is doing it themselves!
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