Leafs Magic Number

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by The Apologist, Apr 26, 2021.

  1. The Apologist Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979

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    As we get down to the nitty gritty, time to track what we need to finish where. I think my numbers are right.

    Step two complete.

    Division: 5 points (EDM currently holds first tiebreak)
    Leafs currently 5th in NHL, 5 pts out of first overall which will matter lots come final four.

    Games remaining: 4

    .


    Ottawa/ Calgary /Montreal/ Vancity /Winterpeg cant catch Toronto at this point.

    Heres to hopefully an exciting week.

    Edit: updated 5/3/2021
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021 at 12:55 AM
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  2. harvestglen Registered User

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    Leafs can clinch with earning 4 points in any fashion. It is not possible given the matchups left for all of EDM/WPG/MTL/VAN to have 69+ points and 24+ RWs.

    VAN needs 11 regulation wins to match the Leafs' total, but since 7 of their remaining games are against WPG and EDM, at least 4 of those would need to be in regulation. That leaves only a maximum of 137 total points possible between WPG and EDM granting MTL also winning out.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2021
  3. Wafflewhipper Registered User

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    I want the division and move up in the league as high as possible. The more last change the better. I’m hoping they run the table.
     
  4. LEAFANFORLIFE23 Registered User

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    The Leafs have clinched now I don't need to see the X I know they are in.
     
  5. TheBigFour Registered User

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    correct me if i am wrong, but can the leafs clinch a playoff spot tomorrow with a ROW victory over the habs and regulation loss for canucks against the sens?
     
  6. Marshy Behind Enemy Lines

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    Yes. Best Vancouver could do is get 67 points but they could only get to 29 ROW ....Leafs would be at 30.
     
  7. harvestglen Registered User

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    They would still be able to win the first tiebreaker and get 26 RWs to Toronto's 25. However, that would also mean winning enough games in regulation to put one of Edm or Wpg to no more than 66 points, so Leafs would clinch nonetheless.
     
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  8. harvestglen Registered User

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    Yes. The worst possible scenario would be a five-way tie at 67 points, but VAN wouldn't be able to get enough RWs without taking away more points from EDM/WPG.

    1. EDM - 67, 28 RWs
    2. WPG - 67, 25 RWs
    3. MTL - 67, 25 RWs
    4. TOR - 67, 25 RWs
    5. VAN - 67, 24 RWs
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2021
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  9. The Apologist Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979

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    I think at this point it's highly unlikely EDM or Wpg catch us.
     
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  10. The Cobra Rent A Goalie

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    We need to get the best matchup as possible. So finish as high as possible. Rest our star players/load mgmt for the last 3-4 games. Which team is less of a playoff team? Price gets hot in the postseason, McDavid will go god mode, VAN has our number...I prefer Winnipeg first. Then I will take my chances with MTL over EDM, although EDM has a bad track record vs our goalies. Not sure if that will translate over to the playoffs
     
  11. Cams Registered User

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    Interesting....EDM/WPG have one more game against each other - tonight. EDM also plays VAN 5 of their last 7!
     
  12. BoredBrandonPridham Registered User

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    There are more messages in the thread about why this pattern specifically will clinch it for the Leafs.
     
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  13. stickty111 Registered User

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  14. BrannigansLaw Laffs fan Sponsor

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    I know it's inevitable but seeing that "x-" next to Leafs always gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling inside. Hope it happens tonight
     
  15. Brown Dog Registered User

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    When the Leafs clinch, I replace the Canadian flag in the backyard with the Leafs flag. Hoping to see it flying tonight!
     
  16. Wafflewhipper Registered User

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    The two best Flags in the world. You heed another Flag pole :)
     
  17. Bomber0104 Registered User

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    Magic number?

    Are people still stuck in the JFJ/Burke/Nonis-era mindset of trying to squeak in the playoffs? :laugh:
     
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  18. Bluelines Python FTW!

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    Toronto's magic # has always been #17


    :D
     
  19. BrannigansLaw Laffs fan Sponsor

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    I thought our magic number is #13. Mats and the final lottery ball that got us Matthews :sarcasm:
     
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  20. conFABulator Registered User

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    As of Wednesday afternoon, I think the numbers are:

    To clinch a playoff spot: 5 (Montreal - any combination of Leafs points gained/Canadiens points missed equalling 5 and we clinch a playoff spot) .
    If the Leafs get 5 more points this year they will end up with 70 on the year. Montreal currently has 51 points and 9 games remaining. If they go 9-0 they end up with 69 points. Our magic number with Vancouver is 9 using the same logic. So Montreal is the lower and more likely to hit first number.

    To clinch home-ice (finishing top 2 in the division): 9 (Winnipeg - any combination of Leafs points gained/Jets points missed equalling 9 and we clinch home ice in the first round)

    To clinch the division title: 14 (Edmonton - - any combination of Leafs points gained/Oilers points missed equalling 14 and we clinch home ice in the division)​

    Each of these numbers might actually be 1-less than I am showing as these are what it takes for the Leafs to clinch outright and not have to rely on tie-breakers. In each case, 1 point less in the magic number would mean we are in a tie and may win on whatever the tie-breaker is at that point.

    Does all of this seem correct? Missing anything? Anyone help with tie-breaker analysis or is it too early to forecast that?
     
  21. mikeyz Registered User

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    Someone explain the latter to me.

    How does Edmonton and Winnipeg finishing in regulation help us clinch a playoff spot? Lol.
     
  22. cupcrazyman Stupid Sexy Flanders

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    Opinion | Power rankings: The Leafs are back on top, but about that magic number ...

    Ottawa can’t catch the Leafs, so that’s one down. Neither can the suddenly hot Flames, so that’s two.
    But sixth-place Vancouver — with all their games in hand – can still earn 71 points as of Monday morning. The Leafs have 65, so seven points in the magic number there.
    However, Montreal — holding down the fourth and final playoff spot — can only get to 67 points (depending on how things go against Calgary on Monday night).
    So 3 points — gained by the Leafs, surrendered by Montreal or some combination of the two — is all the Leafs need to clinch.
     
  23. harvestglen Registered User

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    VAN plays EDM/WPG 7 times and MTL plays them 3 times. So in order for both teams to get as many points and RWs as the Leafs, they would be taking away too many from EDM and/or WPG unless the EDM/WPG tonight is a 3 point game.
     
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  24. harvestglen Registered User

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    Because of the other matchups going on, TOR clinches outright with 69 points regardless of how the other games turn out. There is no possible way for them to lose the tiebreaker at 69 because the other teams play each other and can't all get both 69 pts and 24 RWs. So it is 5 points if we are considering other teams helping, and 4 if TOR is doing it themselves!
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2021
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  25. mikeyz Registered User

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    Yeah, that came to me afterwards. It makes sense.
     

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