Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose to the tampa bay horseshoe

[Smif]

Your post seem to signal that leafs dominated the entire game because it had "one number" displaying how the players had played.

I am saying that it is incorrect way of looking at things.

But you're ONLY looking at 5v5 numbers which is also an incorrect way of looking at things.

 

[PromisedLand]

But you're ONLY looking at 5v5 numbers which is also an incorrect way of looking at things.

You can throw in the special teams and you will see that leafs PP was neutred last night.

That said, since major portions of the game is played even strength and not in special teams, looking at even strength numbers can indicate how things are progressing for players and team as a whole for a duration of a season

 

[Critical13]

Your post seem to signal that leafs dominated the entire game because it had "one number" displaying how the players had played.

I am saying that it is incorrect way of looking at things.

My post didn't signal anything, you made an assumption.

 

[Menzinger]

Nope.

See when we look at CF%, FF%, SCF% etc.... as one number after the game to determine whether or not a team (or player) had a good game IMO it is incorrect way to analyze things.

For example,

Last night in even strength situations tampa had better stats than leafs in FF% and SCF% in the first two periods and the shot differential was only 3 shots 17 to leafs and 14 for tampa.

however, tampa came into 3rd period with a 4-1 lead; and they were clearly turtling; so leafs CF% was really skewed in the third period; so when you take the average of the 3 periods to determine whether leafs had a good game as a whole - it seems like leafs dominated the entire game - which is not necessarily true.

If you need further proof; NHL produces SAT% (its the same as corsi) and track these stats based on events for teams when the game is tied, or team is ahead or behind or close

If you look at those stats you would notice that almost every team in the entire league when leading the CF% is less than when they are trailing in the game.

that can be found at this link;

NHL.com - Stats



Now if you filter for just last night's game

FROM TB perspective
NHL.com - Stats


From Leafs perspective
NHL.com - Stats


It seems like when the game was close their CF% weren't that far apart; when leafs were leading tampa clearly upped their CF%; and when tampa was leading they turtled so hard that Leafs seriously upped their CF% i.e. score effects matter.

Situations and game events should be taken into consideration when looking at "advanced stats"

It would be nice if either natural stat-trick or NHL could have all the stats in one place but they don't.

NHL for example is showing us how CF% look like when give the situation in the game but don't break it down by periods; natural stattrick breaks it down by period but doesn't account for situation in the game.

I don't diss the "advanced stats" but also don't put my faith in them entirely because there are limitations on how these observed, compiled and what they are trying to show.

Score-effects will definitely play a role in influencing possession related stats, but generally speaking won’t lead to as lopsided results as we saw last night.

Things look even better when looking at high danger chances.

 

[PromisedLand]

Score-effects will definybplay a role in influencing possession related stats, but generally speaking won’t lead to as lopsided results as we saw last night.

Things look even better when looking at high danger chances.

do you have statistical evidence of this? or is this your opinion?

 

[Erndog]

Do you actually know anything about hockey? Getting completely outplayed and saved by goaltending and a high shooting percentage is nothing to be impressed by. Even the worst teams in the league can and do manage that

Don't worry, let the Paper Champs have this until they inevitably bow out much like Vancouver all those President Trophy years. Great on paper, regular season is a joke, will have some good playoff runs, but their big players without a doubt disappear when the chips are on the table.

 

[Menzinger]

do you have statistical evidence of this? or is this your opinion?

About score effects or the high danger chances?

I don’t have a numbers right in front of me, but a stats writer I follow on twitter mentioned the Leafs had 21 high danger chances. Which seemed like it lined up with the game I saw, so I didn’t feel the need to double check myself

As for score effects, generally speaking they don’t lead to a near 30 shot gap between teams.

 

[Apotheosis]

As you know, 40 mill on 4 forwards will cause a serious cap crunch.

It's not going to be 40 million though.

 

[PromisedLand]

About score effects or the high danger chances?

I don’t have a numbers right in front of me, but a stats writer I follow on twitter mentioned the Leafs had 21 high danger chances. Which seemed like it lined up with the game I saw, so I didn’t feel the need to double check myself

As for score effects, generally speaking they don’t lead to a near 30 shot gap between teams.

every advanced stats measure is even strength

even strength shot differential was Leafs 31 Tampa 17 overall

first two periods were: Leafs 17 and Tampa 14

so basically the shot differential in the third period was 12 with Leaf 14 and Tampa 2


not sure what you are trying to get at with a 30 shot gap differential

As for Leafs having high danger chances of 21

First two periods: EV strength

SCF: Leafs 18, Tampa 21
HDCF: Leafs 9, Tampa 5

total of all 3 periods:
SCF: Leafs 22, Tampa 26
HDCF: Leafs 12, Tampa 5

may be stop following the "stat writer on twitter" and use your own insights given the data that available; that might be better.

 

[ToneDog]

Don't worry, let the Paper Champs have this until they inevitably bow out much like Vancouver all those President Trophy years. Great on paper, regular season is a joke, will have some good playoff runs, but their big players without a doubt disappear when the chips are on the table.

JT never disappeared in the playoffs for the Isles. He came here to win and I have no doubt he will show up and be counted in the playoffs.

 

[Nineteen67]

It's not going to be 40 million though.

Maybe not, but the post I responed to had Marner and Matthews at 24 mill = 41.9

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Vasy was amazing last night. Best goalie performance I have seen this year. But I remember last year where he gave up 3 softies in Toronto. He can be hit or miss at times. And if he makes 4 games like last night in a 4 game series well then that's life and you shake hands and congrat him. Both teams. A goalie is most important part of team in playoffs. This is Freddy's year to make his mark. I expect he will step up man up. We don't need him to be Vasy level but he has to make the saves on goals 3 and 4 in playoffs and Leafs need to turn their 9 10 bell chances into 3 goals not 1 goal.

 

[Duffman955]

Don't worry, let the Paper Champs have this until they inevitably bow out much like Vancouver all those President Trophy years. Great on paper, regular season is a joke, will have some good playoff runs, but their big players without a doubt disappear when the chips are on the table.

Do our big players show up in the playoffs?

It's an important question worth looking into

 

[JT AM da real deal]

If Freddy plays above average against Tampa last night (2 goals against) and Vasy performs at well above average (3 goals against) we win. We don't need Freddy to outperform Vasy. But he has to make all the normal saves. The backhander should never beat a high end nhl goalie. It would to nice to see Freddy play better against Boston and Tampa. If he is a pyche job in big games then we need to make alternate plans.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

For those curious

5v5
Leafs: scoring chances 22, high danger 12
Tampa: scoring chances 25, high danger 5

All Strength
Leafs: scoring chances 39, high danger 21
Tampa:scoring chances 32, high danger 9

 

[WickedPegJets]

Matthews not playing up to par last few games. Is he injured ?

Perhaps Auston was ruminating in his mind that he and his agent should be submitting a $13M per for eight seasons proposal to Kyle Dubas.

 

[WickedPegJets]

goodness, I hope Dubas adds a bit of toughness to the team.

Yeah right. The Leafs traded away Matt Martin before this season.

 

[Gallagbi]

For those curious

5v5
Leafs: scoring chances 22, high danger 12
Tampa: scoring chances 25, high danger 5

All Strength
Leafs: scoring chances 39, high danger 21
Tampa:scoring chances 32, high danger 9

Seems to match what I saw.

 

[Trapper]

Yeah right. The Leafs traded away Matt Martin before this season.

Must me other kinds of toughness besides Matt Martin.
Who are all the players on Boston/Tampa etc. Forechecking us hard in the top 6/9?

 

[Mr Hockey]

Seems to match what I saw.

and that is?

 

[Gallagbi]

and that is?

Significantly more high opportunity chances for the Leafs.

 

[BTP]

Yeah Tampa Bay is first in the NHL by a mile and is trash....

was trash. not is trash.

come on.

 

[Swedish Gretzky]

Maybe not, but the post I responed to had Marner and Matthews at 24 mill = 41.9

Then what do you think Rantanen is worth?

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yeah right. The Leafs traded away Matt Martin before this season.

Yes because he could no longer take a roster spot away from someone else
What's with the other teams' "experts" coming in here and telling us what's wrong with the team?

 

[leburn98]

Yes because he could no longer take a roster spot away from someone else
What's with the other teams' "experts" coming in here?

Leafs are the centre of the hockey universe and other fanbases continue to prove that.