Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose to the tampa bay horseshoe

[ShaneFalco]

When Par Lindholm has played on the fourth line either centering or on the opposite wing of Tyler Ennis (~60 minutes of 5v5 time), they’re at 40% CF together and have been outchanced 28-12. They scored against Carolina, but the concern here is there is no clear identity on the Leafs fourth line anymore — it’s neither a skilled enough line nor a heavy enough line when these two make up 2/3rds of it.
Doesn’t necessarily mean everything on its own, but Lindholm’s ten goals against (zero for) in 55 minutes of kill time is the worst in terms of total goals against and per 60 goals against of any Leaf forward. Credit where it’s due, he’s been better in the faceoff circle shorthanded than Tavares and Hyman have been (and won three straight on the Lightning’s first PP of the game), but he’s still figuring out his spacing.

Game #32 Review: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs 1 | Maple Leafs Hotstove

 

[Mr Hockey]

unfortunately Corsica's date filters don't work properly, so I'm going to use naturalstattrick's score adjusted 5v5 data to take a peek at how our new lines have fared since they were put together 3gms ago.

We'll start with the two lines that have been intact all 3gms:

Matthews 59.5cf% (+5.2), 56.0scf% (+8.8)
Kapanen 57.6cf% (+2.3), 52.7scf% (+4.0)
Johnsson 66.1cf% (+13.4), 59.3scf% (+12.6)

Kadri 66.5cf% (+15.2), 62.6scf% (+19.0)
Nylander 65.3cf% (+13.5), 65.2scf% (+22.5)
Marleau 65.9cf% (+14.2), 64.8scf% (+21.6)

Obviously, this is awesome for both lines. I don't have the exact qoc numbers but the matthews line has approximately received 2nd line QOC and the Kadri line 3rd line QOC over these three games. The big movers in qoc here are Johnsson and Marleau. Obviously, this is fantastic for Johnsson - who is legit helping that line to dominate possession in his first chance at legit top-6 usage. Even better news, though, is that Marleau is looking pretty damn great now that he's finally not getting elite 1st line quality of competition for the first time as a Leaf. Obviously it helps to have an elite 1st liner like Willy playing with him in that softer competition, but still, this is a good start to showing that he is still a good player that was just being leaned on in too big a role.



Tavares 55.3cf% (-1.7), 42.4scf% (-7.0)
Marner 55.3cf% (-1.6), 43.0scf% (-5.7)
Brown 45.9cf% (-14.9), 35.5scf% (-16.1)

Tavares 50.0cf% (-10.1), 46.2scf% (-14.5)
Marner 41.7cf% (-21.8), 38.5scf% (-25.1)
Hyman 52.6cf% (-5.7), 45.5scf% (-13.9)

Tavares line not doing great here, though remember they're still getting elite tough usage, and scoring chances are far noisier than corsi in this small a sample. The tough usage is proving far too much for Connor to handle, even with the big upgrade in linemates.

With the other two lines doing so well, though, it would behoove our coach to lighten the load on this line a wee bit. No need to have this line getting some of the toughest usage in hockey when you have the best 2nd and 3rd lines in the league.



Lindholm 41.9cf% (-17.6), 26.6scf% (-24.6)
Ennis 51.4cf% (-6.1), 38.2scf% (-10.5)
Goat 44.1cf% (-14.6), 30.5scf% (-19.4)

Lindholm 18.2cf% (-44.4), 0.0scf% (-64.7)
Brown 37.5cf% (-21.5), 25.0scf% (-33.2)
Ennis 10.0cf% (-51.6), 0.0scf% (-61.3)


Just terrible by the 4th line. Doubly annoying because we threw Leivo away for nothing, when he was clearly the best player there.

But I think I'm pretty much done with Lindholm. It's looking more and more like he's a huge reason why the 3rd line has been so poor this year, both offensively and possession wise. Babs has a mancrush on him, though. Goat is probably terrible too, but maybe he should get a chance with Brown and Ennis to see if it can work. Par might be the poison pill that's been dragging down our bottom 6 most of the year.

you should let this Levio thing go, he is gone and trashing the remaining 4th liners and Babs won't bring him back. its the right thing to do Zeke

 

[Mr Hockey]

When Par Lindholm has played on the fourth line either centering or on the opposite wing of Tyler Ennis (~60 minutes of 5v5 time), they’re at 40% CF together and have been outchanced 28-12. They scored against Carolina, but the concern here is there is no clear identity on the Leafs fourth line anymore — it’s neither a skilled enough line nor a heavy enough line when these two make up 2/3rds of it.
Doesn’t necessarily mean everything on its own, but Lindholm’s ten goals against (zero for) in 55 minutes of kill time is the worst in terms of total goals against and per 60 goals against of any Leaf forward. Credit where it’s due, he’s been better in the faceoff circle shorthanded than Tavares and Hyman have been (and won three straight on the Lightning’s first PP of the game), but he’s still figuring out his spacing.

Game #32 Review: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs 1 | Maple Leafs Hotstove

 

[ToneDog]

When Par Lindholm has played on the fourth line either centering or on the opposite wing of Tyler Ennis (~60 minutes of 5v5 time), they’re at 40% CF together and have been outchanced 28-12. They scored against Carolina, but the concern here is there is no clear identity on the Leafs fourth line anymore — it’s neither a skilled enough line nor a heavy enough line when these two make up 2/3rds of it.
Doesn’t necessarily mean everything on its own, but Lindholm’s ten goals against (zero for) in 55 minutes of kill time is the worst in terms of total goals against and per 60 goals against of any Leaf forward. Credit where it’s due, he’s been better in the faceoff circle shorthanded than Tavares and Hyman have been (and won three straight on the Lightning’s first PP of the game), but he’s still figuring out his spacing.

Game #32 Review: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs 1 | Maple Leafs Hotstove

Only way I see this team winning in the playoffs is if the top 3 lines average 20 minutes per regulation game.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Really pleased with how we played against the Paper Champions. Totally dominated them for virtually the entire game. They obv have a lot of very good players so they can make you pay off a turnover or even when they are having a bad period (as we saw yesterday).

I'd much sooner play the Paper Champions than Boston in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay manhandled Boston in the playoffs last year, and so can we. We have to get over that mental hurdle with the Bruins.

 

[zeke]

When Par Lindholm has played on the fourth line either centering or on the opposite wing of Tyler Ennis (~60 minutes of 5v5 time), they’re at 40% CF together and have been outchanced 28-12. They scored against Carolina, but the concern here is there is no clear identity on the Leafs fourth line anymore — it’s neither a skilled enough line nor a heavy enough line when these two make up 2/3rds of it.
Doesn’t necessarily mean everything on its own, but Lindholm’s ten goals against (zero for) in 55 minutes of kill time is the worst in terms of total goals against and per 60 goals against of any Leaf forward. Credit where it’s due, he’s been better in the faceoff circle shorthanded than Tavares and Hyman have been (and won three straight on the Lightning’s first PP of the game), but he’s still figuring out his spacing.

Game #32 Review: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs 1 | Maple Leafs Hotstove

ah nice I was wondering whether Par actually deserve the PK role that babs has handed him.

Babs will be very hesitant to drop Par into the pressbox specifically due to this, though.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Listening to the post game interviews, it is a ****ing joke. Babcock is happy with the how the game was played, and so is Andersen.

They got smoked, Straight up. The difference is Andersen failed to stop the puck and Vasy did the opposite. This team is going to miss the playoffs. They have played like garbage all year.

Not sure you watched the same game the rest of us did, or any of the other games for that matter...

 

[Duffman955]

Tampa Bay manhandled Boston in the playoffs last year, and so can we. We have to get over that mental hurdle with the Bruins.

It's not mental.

They literally dominate the leafs physically. Tampa didn't get pushed around in their series.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Ok?

 

[zeke]

It's not mental.

They literally dominate the leafs physically. Tampa didn't get pushed around in their series.

Leafs are 7-7 against Boston this year and last year, regular season and playoffs. 5-1 at home, 2-6 on the road.

The year before they were 4-0 against them.

 

[Stamkos4life]

I know we shouldn't be to upset about the loss considering we hit like 5 posts and vas was playing lights out.

But watching our pp last was actually painful. No movement, hardly any dangerous plays and of course Tampa gets a shorty.

But the worst part was when kadri was getting mugged by like 4 Tampa players and only 1 leaf helped him. That's not on.

 

[Duffman955]

Leafs are 7-7 against Boston this year and last year, regular season and playoffs. 5-1 at home, 2-6 on the road.

The year before they were 4-0 against them.

Tell me more about how good we are when we win a playoff series with this soft ass team.

 

[LeafShark]

Once Nylander gets going, the pps will get better than ever.

 

[razkaz]

I know we shouldn't be to upset about the loss considering we hit like 5 posts and vas was playing lights out.

But watching our pp last was actually painful. No movement, hardly any dangerous plays and of course Tampa gets a shorty.

But the worst part was when kadri was getting mugged by like 4 Tampa players and only 1 leaf helped him. That's not on.

You're right. The most upsetting takeaway from that game is going 0/6 on the PP when the coach was quoted as saying "Our toughness is our power play. Take all the penalties you want"

 

[mallory67]

I know we shouldn't be to upset about the loss considering we hit like 5 posts and vas was playing lights out.

But watching our pp last was actually painful. No movement, hardly any dangerous plays and of course Tampa gets a shorty.

But the worst part was when kadri was getting mugged by like 4 Tampa players and only 1 leaf helped him. That's not on.

And wasn't the Leaf who helped Tavares? Our $11M star center?
Looks good on Tavares ... but not so good for whoever else was on the ice.

Correct me if I have the wrong scrum in my head ...

 

[Bluelines]

As you know, 40 mill on 4 forwards will cause a serious cap crunch.

As you know expansion $$$, the new gambling $$$ and the new US national broadcast rights, some are saying it will dwarf the stupid Rogers national Canadian deal, will be new contributing factors to the Cap ceiling going up significantly.

Not to mention Bettman wants to eventually turn the players into advertising billboards on skates, that is coming sometime in the next 5 to 10 years years.

$40 mil on 4 forwards might be an issue this season, it won't be an issue in 2 seasons

 

[zeke]

Tell me more about how good we are when we win a playoff series with this soft ass team.

oh I will.

 

[Bluelines]

you should let this Levio thing go, he is gone and trashing the remaining 4th liners and Babs won't bring him back. its the right thing to do Zeke

You do get the problem with that statement?

 

[thewave]

Holy ****... if you hate/dislike so much about this team. From Duby on down why the hell don't you go cheer for another team and bring their fan base your toxic comment's?

I mean you and others are reacting like we were the ones badly outplayed, hemmed into our own zone all night and didn't dominate the best team in the league. Much easier to deflect then to admit that we came upon a goalie who had a career best game. Truly Sad.

One thing Leaf fans like you need to learn..

The ability to win with Respect but more importantly the ability to lose with Dignity.

I constructively criticize and scrutinize them because I care. It's for the love of our team, my team.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Playoffs are all about match ups.

We can and we will beat Tampa in a series. We are better than them when both teams play their type of games.

Boston when they play their tough game we don't match up to them and they totally dominate us. We don't even stand a chance we don't have the personnel to compete and beat them in a series. Given history of Dubas and Babs I can't see us getting the personnel we need to beat them so then my point is lets avoid them at least in 1st round. I'd love to see Tampa and Boston beat each other up. I think Tampa wins based on match ups.

 

[Nineteen67]

As you know expansion $$$, the new gambling $$$ and the new US national broadcast rights, some are saying it will dwarf the stupid Rogers national Canadian deal, will be new contributing factors to the Cap ceiling going up significantly.

Not to mention Bettman wants to eventually turn the players into advertising billboards on skates, that is coming sometime in the next 5 to 10 years years.

$40 mil on 4 forwards might be an issue this season, it won't be an issue in 2 seasons

The cap might go to 81 million next year. Attendance is way down.

 

[Critical13]

Don't think this is the right way to analyze. if you look at the first two periods for even strength mins

Tampa was better in FF%, SCF%, and difference in the shots were only 3.

3rd period includes tampa turtling and it is humongous skewed in favor of the leafs due to score effects.

You never did answer why it was bad analysis? Do you mean the player's I mentioned?

 

[PromisedLand]

You never did answer why it was bad analysis? Do you mean the player's I mentioned?

Nope.

See when we look at CF%, FF%, SCF% etc.... as one number after the game to determine whether or not a team (or player) had a good game IMO it is incorrect way to analyze things.

For example,

Last night in even strength situations tampa had better stats than leafs in FF% and SCF% in the first two periods and the shot differential was only 3 shots 17 to leafs and 14 for tampa.

however, tampa came into 3rd period with a 4-1 lead; and they were clearly turtling; so leafs CF% was really skewed in the third period; so when you take the average of the 3 periods to determine whether leafs had a good game as a whole - it seems like leafs dominated the entire game - which is not necessarily true.

If you need further proof; NHL produces SAT% (its the same as corsi) and track these stats based on events for teams when the game is tied, or team is ahead or behind or close

If you look at those stats you would notice that almost every team in the entire league when leading the CF% is less than when they are trailing in the game.

that can be found at this link;

NHL.com - Stats



Now if you filter for just last night's game

FROM TB perspective
NHL.com - Stats


From Leafs perspective
NHL.com - Stats


It seems like when the game was close their CF% weren't that far apart; when leafs were leading tampa clearly upped their CF%; and when tampa was leading they turtled so hard that Leafs seriously upped their CF% i.e. score effects matter.

Situations and game events should be taken into consideration when looking at "advanced stats"

It would be nice if either natural stat-trick or NHL could have all the stats in one place but they don't.

NHL for example is showing us how CF% look like when give the situation in the game but don't break it down by periods; natural stattrick breaks it down by period but doesn't account for situation in the game.

I don't diss the "advanced stats" but also don't put my faith in them entirely because there are limitations on how these observed, compiled and what they are trying to show.

 

[Critical13]

Nope.

See when we look at CF%, FF%, SCF% etc.... as one number after the game to determine whether or not a team (or player) had a good game IMO it is incorrect way to analyze things.

For example,

Last night in even strength situations tampa had better stats than leafs in FF% and SCF% in the first two periods and the shot differential was only 3 shots 17 to leafs and 14 for tampa.

however, tampa came into 3rd period with a 4-1 lead; and they were clearly turtling; so leafs CF% was really skewed in the third period; so when you take the average of the 3 periods to determine whether leafs had a good game as a whole - it seems like leafs dominated the entire game - which is not necessarily true.

If you need further proof; NHL produces SAT% (its the same as corsi) and track these stats based on events for teams when the game is tied, or team is ahead or behind or close

If you look at those stats you would notice that almost every team in the entire league when leading the CF% is less than when they are trailing in the game.

that can be found at this link;

NHL.com - Stats



Now if you filter for just last night's game

FROM TB perspective
NHL.com - Stats


From Leafs perspective
NHL.com - Stats


It seems like when the game was close their CF% weren't that far apart; when leafs were leading tampa clearly upped their CF%; and when tampa was leading they turtled so hard that Leafs seriously upped their CF% i.e. score effects matter.

Situations and game events should be taken into consideration when looking at "advanced stats"

It would be nice if either natural stat-trick or NHL could have all the stats in one place but they don't.

NHL for example is showing us how CF% look like when give the situation in the game but don't break it down by periods; natural stattrick breaks it down by period but doesn't account for situation in the game.

I don't diss the "advanced stats" but also don't put my faith in them entirely because there are limitations on how these observed, compiled and what they are trying to show.

I guess then I don't understand your comment. There was no "analysis", I just posted screenshots of the data from last night. I thought by analysis maybe you meant the subjective opinion of who played well and who didn't, but that's not the case.

Were you just looking for something to argue about?

 

[PromisedLand]

I guess then I don't understand your comment. There was no "analysis", I just posted screenshots of the data from last night. I thought by analysis maybe you meant the subjective opinion of who played well and who didn't, but that's not the case.

Were you just looking for something to argue about?

Your post seem to signal that leafs dominated the entire game because it had "one number" displaying how the players had played.

I am saying that it is incorrect way of looking at things.