Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose to Rangers 4-1

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by Kamiccolo, Feb 10, 2019.

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  1. HOF Paul Henderson

    HOF Paul Henderson Registered User

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    I’m just happy that we have a player the caliber of AM on the team locked up for 5 years.

    We haven’t had someone like him since...when?
     
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  2. Community

    Community 44 is Rielly good

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    Wrong because the method of collection is perfectly acceptable and is why many people in this industry have been hired as statistical analysts to do this type of work.

    The reason it "didnt work" and the Leafs lost last night (in regard to stats) is not because the stats are flawed, but because the team with more high danger scoring chances does not win 100% of the time.

    However,when you are outchances in high danger scoring chances by this many I bet you win an awful lot of the time.

    These stats analysis leads to predictions with a better chance of accurately predicting the winner than stats like shots, but they obviously dont predict who will win 100% of the time. The purpose of stats like these are NOT to predict who will win, but who will win the majority of the time (and sometimes specifically how much of the time).

    Edit: Off to work so I will leave further stat explanations you require to others in this thread that seem to have a great grasp on stats and are probably better equipped to answer you than me!
     
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  3. Jamason

    Jamason Registered User

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    Correct. And the stat correctly predicts that shots from that area are more likely to produce goals. (Pretty self-evident, I would say.) However, the fact that on average, over thousands of games, shots from that area produce more goals, does not mean that, because a team in one game had lots of shots from there, that they had a great game. It also doesn't mean they didn't.

    It's a common mistake that people apply a statistic to an individual situation. That the Leafs had 36 high danger shots, and high danger shots result in goals almost 20% of the time, does not mean Leafs scored five goals last night, or that they will any other time they get that many shots.
     
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  4. Community

    Community 44 is Rielly good

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    For sure! My last post references this. But if they keep playing like that things will work out quite nicely for the Leafs moving forward! Also this isnt an individual situation (which would be just 1 shot), but it is definitely a very low sample size.

    Cheers!
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019 at 11:57 AM
  5. Gabriel426

    Gabriel426 Registered User

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    Seriously, it is just a game on a back to back. The Lesfs got 50shots on goal and only scored once. It had everything to do with the other team goalie stealing the game.
    You cannot say the Leafs were outplayed bc if the Rangers had 50 shots and only scored once, Sparks would be hailed as the hero who stole the game for the Leafs on this thread
     
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  6. FlareKnight

    FlareKnight Registered User

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    Not really strange and not really new. Matthews play since his latest shoulder injury has been a concern ever since he came back. He's so talented he can put up points even playing the way he has been. But he's been hesitant out there. He's not taking over games like he can and is more playing the opportunist who will disappear for much of a game, but can score when given some chances. That he just signed a contract to make him the second highest paid player in the NHL next year is just bringing the focus back on the issues he's been having for a while. Heck discussion about whether he was playing more cautiously so he wouldn't get hurt before signing his next contract was brought up to explain why he hasn't been himself.

    He's the franchise center we drafted. A huge part of this team and a key reason why this team will succeed or fail. If he can't get going then we're in trouble. He'll still look fine in terms of production since he can pounce on chances. But we need him creating his chances and being effective in his own end. This isn't about a contract making people hate a guy, it's a core player not looking right on the ice.
     
  7. Daisy Jane

    Daisy Jane everything is gonna be okay!

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    why does it matter? it shouldn't matter if the contract kicks in next year or not - the expectation isn't gonna change.
     
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  8. leaffaninvancouver

    leaffaninvancouver formerly in Victoria

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    Because saying he's not earning his contract this season is asinine.
     
  9. mavis

    mavis Registered User

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    Everyone just thinks he’s going to leave after 5yrs so they’re already pretending like they didn’t want him in the first place.

    The ironic thing is that people think he’ll be pricing himself out and we won’t be able to afford him in 5yrs, however the higher they price him 6yrs from now, the better his current contract looks and the more his current years look like RFA dollars and not UFA dollars.
     
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  10. Daisy Jane

    Daisy Jane everything is gonna be okay!

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    why?
    again people want to cite how much he and McDavid are on par points per 60. (thus why he deserves that contract)
    but for two seasons now after an injury he hasn't been acting very franchise centre-y he's been listless etc. (which if he is playing injured even though being 'capable' of putting points akin to McDavid everything else is lacking) - so i don't think saying he didn't earn the amount he was given is asinine - just because it doesn't kick in until next season. he earned it based off. his play the last three - hence the criticism.
     
  11. mavis

    mavis Registered User

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    I have a million dollars. I will show you the HDSC metrics of this game but conceal the score. You have to guess who won. If you guess right, I will give you the million dollars.

    Who would you guess and why?
     
  12. Maple Leafs

    Maple Leafs Toronto

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    I get what your saying but your wrong
     
  13. Brown Dog

    Brown Dog Registered User

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    I thought Sparks was pretty solid for the most part. 3rd goal was bad though, and was a back-breaker.
     
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  14. Kiwi

    Kiwi Registered User

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    Meh, I think the Rangers goalie was in our head long before that

    The 3rd goal wasn't good but the way things were going nothing was getting past that dude, to call it frustrating would be an understatement

    Complete domination, and we still lost somehow
    Gotta love the randomness of hockey
     
  15. mavis

    mavis Registered User

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    Sounds like youre dismissing his mcdavid-like on ice 5v5 performance over the last 3 seasons in favour of your interpretation of “acting franchise centrey”. I can’t believe Dubas didn’t take that into consideration during negotiations.
     
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  16. leaffaninvancouver

    leaffaninvancouver formerly in Victoria

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    My point is that people beating him up for this season over a contract that kicks in next season is unfair. Matthews makes less than a million dollars for this season, if were going to bring money into it for this season we have to use what he's actually paid. If we want to argue he's paid too much or contract is bad starting next season by all means that's fair. What's not fair is to use his future contract against his play on this one.
     
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  17. Daisy Jane

    Daisy Jane everything is gonna be okay!

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    considering i mentioned Matthews points total - i didn't.
    however, per usual if one is critical over the chosen few - it' means anything you say is just snarked about and dismissed. whatever.



    again. unless people are saying if the play now warrants the contract he's about to earn. however you don't agreee and this is really not something i'm gonna argue with because I personally don't care. I was just saying that that could be how people view it - which- again isn't asinine or unfair as it's been done with countless other players not just leafs.
     
  18. mavis

    mavis Registered User

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    Yes, you mentioned it, then said he doesn't act franchise centrey. You list franchise centre, elite elite 5v5 scoring metrics, but then you dismiss it as saying he doesn't act franchise centrey.

    Hence my post, indicating you dismissed his 5v5 performance (you need to mention it to dismiss it), then followed up with your final take on how you perceive he is "acting" can be taken as not deserving of the contract, despite his elite, elite production.
     
  19. TheBigThree

    TheBigThree Registered User

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    Glad 11.634 million boy coasted this whole game.
     
  20. tmlms13

    tmlms13 Registered User

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    I'd love to see a chart of where all the shots were vertically. Felt like everything was either in the stomach or below the pads.

    how many shots forced him to made a save with his arms or shoulders.

    Shoot from the high danger spots all you want you aren't going to beat anyone in the butterfly. Unless you're shooting 100mph one timers the 5 hole doesn't exist.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019 at 3:22 PM
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  21. FraumBallard

    FraumBallard Registered User

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    When someone says "Hot Take"
    it sounds dismissive.
    Diversity of thought is a good thing.
     
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  22. JT AM da real deal

    JT AM da real deal Registered User

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    He does not score goals. Maybe it was a 2-1 loss instead of a 4-1 loss. Big deal either way it was a loss.

    Goal 1 2 massive giveaways in our end first by Rielly which Sparlie makes 2 10 bellers bang bang and then Marner gave it away in slot for a wide open shot.

    Goal 2 also a wide open shot on a 3 on 2 from a perfect slot shot created because Hainsey gambled on blue line and he does not have NHL speed anymore so he could not get back and help.

    Goal 3 was massive garbage but still thanks Matty for totally screening him and then doing the flamingo to get out of the way of a wrister from point. He turns his body to get out of the way of puck. In my day that meant you got benched for a shift for being a p*ssy.

    There is no point in scape goats. It was a team loss and the forwards needed to score on their 55 shots. Blaming Sparkie is just total bogus.
     
  23. SprDaVE

    SprDaVE Registered User

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    A well thought out response is one thing, but a hot take is based on a recent event/game purely out of emotion. The hate Matthews is getting right now, or that Babcock needs to be fired... stuff like that is definitely a hot take without much thought put behind it.
     
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  24. Jamason

    Jamason Registered User

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    Because I understand statistics, and why they do not apply to single situations, I would not bet.
     
  25. mavis

    mavis Registered User

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    Because you understand statistics, you would not bet in a situation where you can win a million dollars and have nothing to lose. Seems reasonable....
     
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