Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose, season over

[Stephen]

It's an incredibly unsustainable way of winning. Consistently getting outshot and outchanced but still winning is generally the result of a hot goalie, poor shooting luck, or in this case, about equal parts of both. Having a 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 1.7% is unbelievably low especially for the talent on the team but isn't indicative who the better overall team was.

Analytics offer zero comfort in a situation like this.

 

[Stephen]

I'm looking for the correlation of good saves that I saw vs the chances we allowed.

We didn't score enough or get the saves we needed and they did, we know that.

For sure. There’s also a lot of non analytics plumbing that happens between those events though. Will be interested when they start releasing player data what kind of skating stats the Leafs have. Average pace, total distance skated per game, time in each zone.

 

[Gallagbi]

For sure. There’s also a lot of non analytics plumbing that happens between those events though. Will be interested when they start releasing player data what kind of skating stats the Leafs have. Average pace, total distance skated per game, time in each zone.

they showed time in offensive zone last night after the series. I think it was about ~105 minutes v. 65 minutes over the series for Toronto 5on5

 

[SeanAvery]

I think our best bet to get a good D is trade Marner put in a little extra and find a good top pairing to be with Rielly.
10.0 for Marner was a mistake, Trading Kadri was a mistake. Dubas is young he will learn from this, our coach is as well.

Trade Marner, and Anderson if you can. our top 6 is small with no grit. big changes need to be made, tinker with offence and bring major changes to D.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Rope a Dope Hockey my friend. Let the Leafs have the puck as much as they want on the outside and limit dangerous chances and take advantage of mistakes. Leafs were outscored 10-3 at 5 on 5.

We are like the Senators in the early 2000s that the Leafs routinely beat in the playoffs. Young, soft, tremendous skill, great possession, and flaky goaltending in big games.

 

[Smif]

A very interesting site I like for shot maps:

IcyData » Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs on August 9th 2020

Seem like Columbus (blue) did keep the leafs (red) to the outside-ish in the third period barring 1 slot chance vs 4 slot chances for Columbus. The leafs had a better 1st period while Columbus had a better 2nd period though both teams gave up a bunch of slot chances in the 2nd.

Also of interesting note was that Dermott was the most zone sheltered player in the game.

The OZ - NZ - DZ starts tells me a lot. Seems all our players were somewhat spread out sharing the zone starts fairly evenly whereas Columbus it is 100% clear that they had two lines that were starting in the DZ 100% of the time when possible.. Makes me wonder what a rebuilt third line would look like with a shutdown rugged center like Jenner and a clear goal.

 

[ACC1224]

He is NOT Qualified for the position period . He will not learn from his mistakes and why as the richest most storied franchise in the NHL do we have to put up with Rookie GM and Coaching mistakes - it makes no sense .

Rookie President put them all in place.
Many thought this would be a mistake, looks like many were right.

 

[DueDiligence]

We are like the Senators in the early 2000s that the Leafs routinely beat in the playoffs. Young, soft, tremendous skill, great possession, and flaky goaltending in big games.

But those Senator teams could not go out an acquire a proven all-star like JT. Big difference.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Tallon is awful awful awful. Imagine signing a Dave Bolland to 5.5 x 5 or whatever it was. Imagine signing Bobrovsky to 10 x 7.

Bobbo yes big mistake ... Boller got hurt bad really bad ... Boller types will get hurt because they play dirty hockey in tight and it is only a matter of time before da end happens ... much like Ferland once he got knocked out cold by Clifford it was over for him ... every team will have 1 or 2 Bollers who get hurt but thats what LTIR is for

 

[Merrrlin]

Analytics offer zero comfort in a situation like this.

Comes back to the question - how satisfied are you with winning this series but not winning the cup?

Despite losing, I actually think Toronto is closer to a cup than Columbus, because I think you need to have a Matthews type player.

Problem for both these teams is that this series win is basically a consolation prize for the fanbase, as neither team can beat the top teams in a 7 game series. I would be shocked if Columbus beats Tampa, but even then, I don't see them making it through Philly or Boston or Carolina. Same would have been said for Toronto.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

they showed time in offensive zone last night after the series. I think it was about ~105 minutes v. 65 minutes over the series for Toronto 5on5

Yes, the Leafs forwards were considerably better than the Jackets, which they should be given their salaries. Too bad style points don't count for anything.

 

[Merrrlin]

But those Senator teams could not go out an acquire a proven all-star like JT. Big difference.

I might be thinking of the wrong era, but didn't Ottawa sign Hasek and Hossa? Or were those trades?

 

[NoTouchIcing]

Won't the Hurricanes get him if we land him?

No

 

[ACC1224]

The problem was that the cap situation was so tight at the time that had he not gotten rid of Marleau, we wouldn't have been able to sign AJ and KK. Lou did sign a bad contract here in my opinion as there is no question Marleau wasn't worth 6.5 mil. But ultimately when he made that trade of Marleau for a 1st rd pick it means he was judging that the Leafs with AJ and Kappy were going to be BETTER and so its worth giving up a 1st rd pick for that. So to me it was also a failure on his Dubas's part cause he bet the team he's building will be BETTER. This year clearly has shown that it wasn't. But I'm not willing to let Lou off the hook either for that signing. That said, one could then argue that Lou would have not gone after JT, or if he did, he would have traded one of Nylander/Marner. Hindsight for sure, but hard not to question Dubas on all those little decisions now.

Yep, maxing out the cap certainly put Dubas in a bad position to move the player, severely limited his options.

 

[weems]

they showed time in offensive zone last night after the series. I think it was about ~105 minutes v. 65 minutes over the series for Toronto 5on5

The problem is we dont have guys that can effectively break thru the middle of strong structure.

We dont drive the net. We dont screen the goalie or cause havoc in front of opposing net. Everything is perimeter oriented speed.

Weak forecheck and underwhelming ability to cycle the puck.

Our lack of physical presence showed last night. Werenski was questionable to play because of some injury. Most teams would have routinely put the puck in his corner all night and lay the body and figure that eventually he will wear down.

I mean if Muzzin had missed 1 game due to injury and returned, do you think CLB would have made it easy on him? Naw they would have made it a gameplan to almost target him because he's most likely compromised.

One of the reasons we dont generate many PP's is because we hardly ever cycle the puck in the offensive zone and being able to cycle the puck effectively at certain points will lead to hooking, holding and tripping penalties.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The OZ - NZ - DZ starts tells me a lot. Seems all our players were somewhat spread out sharing the zone starts fairly evenly whereas Columbus it is 100% clear that they had two lines that were starting in the DZ 100% of the time when possible.. Makes me wonder what a rebuilt third line would look like with a shutdown rugged center like Jenner and a clear goal.

Yup definitely with Muzzin out the leafs would have divided the load more evenly. I imagine Muzzin/Holl would have seen lots of defensive zone usage but ya the leafs dont really have a matchup forward line that you feed defensive usage to as their match up lines are also the lines you want to give offensive zone time to.

 

[Gallagbi]

The problem is we dont have guys that can effectively break thru the middle of strong structure.

We dont drive the net. We dont screen the goalie or cause havoc in front of opposing net. Everything is perimeter oriented speed.

Weak forecheck and underwhelming ability to cycle the puck.

Our lack of physical presence showed last night. Werenski was questionable to play because of some injury. Most teams would have routinely put the puck in his corner all night and lay the body and figure that eventually he will wear down.

I mean if Muzzin had missed 1 game due to injury and returned, do you think CLB would have made it easy on him? Naw they would have made it a gameplan to almost target him because he's most likely compromised.

One of the reasons we dont generate many PP's is because we hardly ever cycle the puck in the offensive zone and being able to cycle the puck effectively at certain points will lead to hooking, holding and tripping penalties.

I agree in part and I want to see more of that from our middle lines. It's why I'd like to see some turnover with Nylander, Kap, AJ, Kerfoot, Mik. Not all, but some guys for sure and a few more willing/confident defenders to just put pucks through.

With that said, we still seemed to generate some great chances for scorers in prime spots. JT had 3, Matthews a onetimer in the slot, Nylander a cross ice onetimer in the slot, same with AJ.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The problem is we dont have guys that can effectively break thru the middle of strong structure.

We dont drive the net. We dont screen the goalie or cause havoc in front of opposing net. Everything is perimeter oriented speed.

Weak forecheck and underwhelming ability to cycle the puck.

Our lack of physical presence showed last night. Werenski was questionable to play because of some injury. Most teams would have routinely put the puck in his corner all night and lay the body and figure that eventually he will wear down.

I mean if Muzzin had missed 1 game due to injury and returned, do you think CLB would have made it easy on him? Naw they would have made it a gameplan to almost target him because he's most likely compromised.

One of the reasons we dont generate many PP's is because we hardly ever cycle the puck in the offensive zone and being able to cycle the puck effectively at certain points will lead to hooking, holding and tripping penalties.

The worst part is Werenski was still one of the more physical players on the ice last night. Injury and all

 

[hoglund]

they showed time in offensive zone last night after the series. I think it was about ~105 minutes v. 65 minutes over the series for Toronto 5on5

For the most part the Leafs controlled the play, but didn't get the breaks

 

[Stephen]

Comes back to the question - how satisfied are you with winning this series but not winning the cup?

Despite losing, I actually think Toronto is closer to a cup than Columbus, because I think you need to have a Matthews type player.

Problem for both these teams is that this series win is basically a consolation prize for the fanbase, as neither team can beat the top teams in a 7 game series. I would be shocked if Columbus beats Tampa, but even then, I don't see them making it through Philly or Boston or Carolina. Same would have been said for Toronto.

I think they need the feeling of winning a series, even if it’s a five game play-in. My theory is if they got over one hump you might see a lot of internal growth. Look at the Carolina Hurricanes. Feels like they’ve taken a massive step forward as a franchise after the run they went on last year. Is it a chicken or the egg thing? Maybe. But I think we needed to see signs of growth.

Although to be fair to this current core group, we also can’t totally pin the 2017 and 2018 first round exits on them. At the time they were kids coming up as rookies and sophomores, Tavares wasn’t here and so many of those guys like Kadri, Bozak, JVR, Gardiner, Komarov are gone now. So if the departed learned anything from our previous playoff failures they aren’t here for us to benefit.

 

[SeanAvery]

our office and coaching are fine, it's the players, we need better d and a more fleshed out offensive team, they can't all be finesse players. Dubas made some rookie gm mistakes that he will learn from, Keefe as well, he will learn. this a player position problem not an office or management problem.

 

[Auston Richard]

There is no way Marner will return good value with the flat cap. There is also no way the leafs will retain on him or take back cap dumps. As a result I dont see any chance Marner is traded.

If it is any of the big 4 it will be Nylander as it has always been, Marner's contract made sure he had a NMC before it was even possible to have one. Personally I think we will move out AJ and Kap for futures/Rielly's partner and will basically try again with the same core. Not sure if I agree with it but the flat cap limits options and the only 'blow up' they could actually do would be to trade guys like Nylander, Rielly and Anderson which doesn't make sense in my mind.

If you can get a top pairing RD that fits in stylistically with Rielly you gotta think about moving Nylander. I'm a big Nylander fan but it will take a good asset to get the defenseman the leafs need.

Remember that there are two huge effects of Covid for nhl teams. Yes, one is that flat cap. But the other is financial catastrophe.

That means the rich teams will be in cap hell, and the poor teams will be fighting for their financial lives. Those poor teams will care first and foremost about bang for their buck, and hope to be nowhere near the cap ceiling. Those teams would DIE for Marner and Nylander's contracts. They were so heavily front loaded and already given 2 signing bonuses (3 for Nylander), that in terms of REAL money, the contracts are now steals. Marner makes $35 million over the next 5 years ($7 mil per) and Nylander makes $16 mil his final 4 years (4 million per).

Those are arguably the two contracts with the highest trade values in the entire post covid league

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Bunch of these guys are going to travel 5 minutes away and end up back home.

 

[HellasLEAF]

Rookie President
Rookie GM
Rookie Coach

This was not a recipe for success.

 

[mix1home]

And that's the way they lost.

The Leafs, with all their bluster and swag and dangles and snipes, could not put one in.

I bet they feel lousy.

And Dubas feels like he got hosed at the contract table, especially now.

The players didn't hold up their end of the bargain at all.

In fact, worse.

What? Dubas should feel exactly as fool he is. He did it all himself. He paid Nylander much more(7.5M) than Pasta got who is superior player. He paid much more to Marner than Kucherov got who again is much superior player. He paid Mathews as RFA what francise centers are getting as UFA and he goes right to FA after that contract is up. He literally spend all money he didnt have in first place. He still has no #1D. Defense overall needs a lot of help, Railly needs rise, but there is no money. That is how from young and upcoming team word "upcoming" has evaporated as there is no cap to add pieces to make it into contender.