Post-Game Talk: Leafs Lose 5-3 | Get Ceci Off This Team Yesterday | #PrayForAndersen

[Zybalto]

Codi Ceci does NOT have great advanced stats. Don't bring your dislike and hate for analytics into this lol. He had some good underlying stats at one point in the season, but overall it's been not great (not terrible, but not good either).

Since Keefe got hired (Nov 20th, 30 games ago):
- 6th out of 6D on our team for CF% (I.e the worst for shots against)
- 6th out of 6D on our team for HDCF% (I.e the worst high-danger shots against)
- 4th out of 6D on our team for GF%
- 3rd out of 6D on our team for xGF% (this one's not that bad)
- etc

However from a eye-test, he's looked good for a quite a long stretch of games (ever since he got paired with Sandin) and yesterday was his first ****ty game in a while.

You make a pretty big mistake here when you translate CF% and HDCF% into purely defensive numbers.

Since he's used in a defensive role and has the fewest Ozone starts on the team, lets check his purely defensive analytics and outcomes since Nov. 20th.

I'll do the more important 5v5 defensive numbers compared to his D teammates (min 200 minutes) and also league rank REL (min 400 minutes, 134 dmen total).



High Danger changes against/60:

1. Ceci: - 9.65 (Ranks 33rd fewest in the NHL REL)
2. Dermott - 9.87
3. Barrie - 10.26
4. Muzzin - 10.56
5. Holl - 11.39
6. Rielly - 11.46

Expected Goals against/60:

1. Ceci: - 2.04 (Ranks 21st fewest in the NHL REL)
2. Dermott - 2.04
3. Muzzin - 2.14
4. Holl - 2.32
5. Barrie - 2.42
6. Rielly - 2.61

Goals against/60:

1. Ceci: - 2.21 (Ranks 16th fewest in the NHL REL)
2. Barrie - 2.36
3. Rielly - 2.47
4. Muzzin - 2.75
5. Dermott - 2.97
6. Holl - 3.1


Fewest giveaways/60:

1. Ceci: - 0.73 (Ranks 2nd fewest in the NHL)
2. Rielly - 2
3. Barrie - 2.17
4. Dermott - 2.56
5. Muzzin - 3.01
6. Holl - 3.16


On the PK with Muzzin:

Goals against: 3.21 (4th in the NHL since Nov. 20th, they remain 1st overall on the season)


High danger and expected goal against analytics are best on team and actual goals given up (both on PK and 5v5) as well as giveaways are not only best on team but up with NHL leaders.

Taking money right out of it, do his numbers not scream safe effective defensive dman?

 

[killer1980]

I get pretty tired of hearing the word "rebuild". I thought that was what was happening 5 years ago. So, we (Lou & Friends) got us a 105 point season. Seems to me we should have been building off that year not regressing to square one. All I hear is what we need now. Well, after the 105 season we needed a more defensive defense and a backup. Now, we still need the above but some toughness, determination and leadership as well. We have regressed. Those responsible should be gone. It's only because I'm selfish and probably won't live long enough for another "rebuild'.

 

[Drytoast]

I get pretty tired of hearing the word "rebuild". I thought that was what was happening 5 years ago. So, we (Lou & Friends) got us a 105 point season. Seems to me we should have been building off that year not regressing to square one. All I hear now is what we need now. Well, after the 105 season we needed a more defensive defense and a backup. Now, we still need the above but some toughness, determination and leadership as well. We have regressed. Those responsible should be gone. It's only because I'm selfish and probably won't live long enough for another "rebuild'.

I've been saying we have regressed this entire year. We have screwed ourselves by giving up half our cap to 4 players, forcing us to build out a team around them based on rookies and fringe NHLer's.

So even when Nylander goes out and gets another goal and everyone says how "blessed" we are, I still see vary large gaps in our line up. Especially on the blue line. An unreliable back up goalie. And a future where we will regress further as talented vets contracts run out and we can't resign or replace them with similarly skilled counterparts.

Our super stars have insured they get paid. Screwing the team in the process. Sure they will put up their points and perform adequately. (though in the case of JT he will slowly decline over the course of his contract, making the tail end an albatross). These 4 cannot carry our team to a cup. We need defense. We need to have a strong line up with no "Ceci's" or the like.

We are now Chicago. But Chicago AFTER they won their cups.

"blessed"? Nope.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I've been saying we have regressed this entire year. We have screwed ourselves by giving up half our cap to 4 players, forcing us to build out a team around them based on rookies and fringe NHLer's.

So even when Nylander goes out and gets another goal and everyone says how "blessed" we are, I still see vary large gaps in our line up. Especially on the blue line. An unreliable back up goalie. And a future where we will regress further as talented vets contracts run out and we can't resign or replace them with similarly skilled counterparts.

Our super stars have insured they get paid. Screwing the team in the process. Sure they will put up their points and perform adequately. (though in the case of JT he will slowly decline over the course of his contract, making the tail end an albatross). These 4 cannot carry our team to a cup. We need defense. We need to have a strong line up with no "Ceci's" or the like.

We are now Chicago. But Chicago AFTER they won their cups.

"blessed"? Nope.

This is exactly why we can't keep giving up our 1st rounders. Without top end talent coming up the end will approach much faster than everyone thinks. The holes need to be filled. But not with guys who can't get a contract and come here as their last dance.

 

[Duke Silver]

If stats are so important to you, sign Varlamov. He was cheaper at 6 m.

Stats are exactly what tell me Varlamov isn't a good option.

I'll never understand proud ignorance.

 

[ToneDog]

I've been saying we have regressed this entire year. We have screwed ourselves by giving up half our cap to 4 players, forcing us to build out a team around them based on rookies and fringe NHLer's.

So even when Nylander goes out and gets another goal and everyone says how "blessed" we are, I still see vary large gaps in our line up. Especially on the blue line. An unreliable back up goalie. And a future where we will regress further as talented vets contracts run out and we can't resign or replace them with similarly skilled counterparts.

Our super stars have insured they get paid. Screwing the team in the process. Sure they will put up their points and perform adequately. (though in the case of JT he will slowly decline over the course of his contract, making the tail end an albatross). These 4 cannot carry our team to a cup. We need defense. We need to have a strong line up with no "Ceci's" or the like.

We are now Chicago. But Chicago AFTER they won their cups.

"blessed"? Nope.

The hope is that the 3 amigos continue to get better and the cap grows so we can add. None of them or Dubas did the team any favours when it came to contract negotiations. Willie looking good going forward but the fact that didn't come close to earning his money last year should not be ignored. Mitch is a great playmaker but he is an overpaid 20-30 goal RWer IMO. Matty pretty much wrote his own ticket but he should be paid closer to Eichel than McDavid.

 

[Sypher04]

I'm so glad I didn't come in this thread after the game ended. I get it, I was pissed off too, but the overreactions in here are a lot. Ceci was bad vs Florida, but anyone acting like that was his regular performance is demonstrating their bias against the guy, who has been a solid 3rd pair, and pk guy for us, albeit overpaid in the role.

That was a game that was ripe for the taking, and we dropped the ball. Regroup and come back at it. Another setback and we have made things clearly more difficult on ourselves than we should have, but I can't help but laugh at "fans" already jumping off the bandwagon or "taking a break". We are in a playoff race, there are far worse things. We are still 3rd probably, maybe 4th in the league in point percentage since our coaching change. We are far from out. You are displaying the very quitter mentality you chastise the Leafs for allegedly having. If we make it, we will get in on the back of playing really well, unlike last year where we essentially limped into our series vs Boston and still nearly won. You're not taking that break because the team isn't going anywhere, you're taking it because you're a fairweather fan. A bandwagonner

 

[Drytoast]

The hope is that the 3 amigos continue to get better and the cap grows so we can add. None of them or Dubas did the team any favours when it came to contract negotiations. Willie looking good going forward but the fact that didn't come close to earning his money last year should not be ignored. Mitch is a great playmaker but he is an overpaid 20-30 goal RWer IMO. Matty pretty much wrote his own ticket but he should be paid closer to Eichel than McDavid.

Of the 4. Nylander is the only one who's talent equals his pay. The others are grossly overpaid. (partly why I think Dubas ends up trying to trade him to use him to stop gap the problem with the defense)

The argument that San Jose was willing to overpay JT even more than we did is a non starter for me. They ended up overpaying for EK. How's that working out for them?

JT had a direct comparable who signed for 8.5 *8 a year earlier. That was and still is a reasonable price point for such a player/age

The salary cap doesn't care about;

- no tax states
- the weather
- intrusive and annoying media and fans
- merchandise possibilities
- who your team mates are
- who your coach is.

So when Matthews decides he wants that much of the pie, the salary cap demands he takes that percent from his line mates. It's the people paid on defense. It's the back up goalie. Maybe a winger. The 4th line.

So when we yell at Ceci or Hutch or any other player for being bad, we need to remind ourselves that our 4 best players put that person in that role.

Ceci is a bit of an anomaly as he is what we have to suffer through for 1 year in order to get out from under Zaitsev's contract.

But moving forward it's going to be a good while before things start to level out price wise. And well...Matthews contract being only 5 years and not 8 like it should have AT LEAST been, insures that he gets to likely f*** us again. Or just take his money and leave.

Am I a happy Leaf fan? No. No I am not.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

You make a pretty big mistake here when you translate CF% and HDCF% into purely defensive numbers.

Since he's used in a defensive role and has the fewest Ozone starts on the team, lets check his purely defensive analytics and outcomes since Nov. 20th.

I'll do the more important 5v5 defensive numbers compared to his D teammates (min 200 minutes) and also league rank REL (min 400 minutes, 134 dmen total).



High Danger changes against/60:

1. Ceci: - 9.65 (Ranks 33rd fewest in the NHL REL)
2. Dermott - 9.87
3. Barrie - 10.26
4. Muzzin - 10.56
5. Holl - 11.39
6. Rielly - 11.46

Expected Goals against/60:

1. Ceci: - 2.04 (Ranks 21st fewest in the NHL REL)
2. Dermott - 2.04
3. Muzzin - 2.14
4. Holl - 2.32
5. Barrie - 2.42
6. Rielly - 2.61

Goals against/60:

1. Ceci: - 2.21 (Ranks 16th fewest in the NHL REL)
2. Barrie - 2.36
3. Rielly - 2.47
4. Muzzin - 2.75
5. Dermott - 2.97
6. Holl - 3.1


Fewest giveaways/60:

1. Ceci: - 0.73 (Ranks 2nd fewest in the NHL)
2. Rielly - 2
3. Barrie - 2.17
4. Dermott - 2.56
5. Muzzin - 3.01
6. Holl - 3.16


On the PK with Muzzin:

Goals against: 3.21 (4th in the NHL since Nov. 20th, they remain 1st overall on the season)


High danger and expected goal against analytics are best on team and actual goals given up (both on PK and 5v5) as well as giveaways are not only best on team but up with NHL leaders.

Taking money right out of it, do his numbers not scream safe effective defensive dman?

See here's the thing. I think Ceci is fine purely defensively. That's perfectly suitable for the PK and in last-minute crunch situations. I also think the poor goaltending from Freddy and Hutch recently is just amplifying everyone's hate for him.

However, there is absolutely zero reason for Ceci's offensive numbers to be that terrible. The discrepancy between the raw stats for his offensive numbers and then rest of the teams offensive numbers is a huge. I mean his Rel GF/60 is the worst in the entire league (min 400 mins 5v5) and his Rel CF/60 is 2nd worst in the entire league (min 400 mins 5v5). The net results from him on the ice aren't ideal, and he doesn't fit on this team's type of play-style.

It's not even score effects as well.
When we're leading, he's 2nd worst on the team for GF/60 and CF/60.
When we're tied, he's worst on the team for GF/60 and CF/60 by far.
When we're trailing, he's worst on the team for GF/60 and CF/60 by far.