Pre-Game Talk: Leafs @ Habs: Wednesday 7:30pm

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Is this for real? If the R2 value of Corsi, scoring chances and xGA is less than .3 then all 3 stats are thrash, hot garbage when it comes to predicting results and should not be taken seriously unlike baseball advance statistics. Here is the value R2 should be to remain relevant

if R-squared value < 0.3 this value is generally considered a None or Very weak effect size,
- if R-squared value 0.3 < r < 0.5 this value is generally considered a weak or low effect size,
- if R-squared value 0.5 < r < 0.7 this value is generally considered a Moderate effect size,
- if R-squared value r > 0.7 this value is generally considered strong effect size,

.21 being better than .17 means little in the grand picture because all that means is that both predictive model is thrash, I only took a couple courses in statistics years ago but this I'm sure of and I'm kind of disappointed if that article turns out to be right because all that will mean is that the eye test crowd was right all along in thrashing Corsi and xGA, Promiseland was right all along, lol.

The r2 is not as important as the question being asked from the stat.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Win tonight and you start to put some real distance between yourself and the rest of the pack

 

[Gary Nylund]

The r2 is not as important as the question being asked from the stat.

If the stat has a "None or Very weak effect size", that doesn't sound good. Please explain what you mean - what kind of question would you have to ask that would make the stat more meaningful?

 

[Notsince67]

Is this for real? If the R2 value of Corsi, scoring chances and xGA is less than .3 then all 3 stats are thrash, hot garbage when it comes to predicting results and should not be taken seriously unlike baseball advance statistics. Here is the value R2 should be to remain relevant

if R-squared value < 0.3 this value is generally considered a None or Very weak effect size,
- if R-squared value 0.3 < r < 0.5 this value is generally considered a weak or low effect size,
- if R-squared value 0.5 < r < 0.7 this value is generally considered a Moderate effect size,
- if R-squared value r > 0.7 this value is generally considered strong effect size,

.21 being better than .17 means little in the grand picture because all that means is that both predictive model is thrash, I only took a couple courses in statistics years ago but this I'm sure of and I'm kind of disappointed if that article turns out to be right because all that will mean is that the eye test crowd was right all along in thrashing Corsi and xGA, Promiseland was right all along, lol.

Eye tests are pretty bad too judging from this forum.
I would use everything contextually and the most important thing is the presence of a brain. Eye tests are essential but due to the high variability of game performances, the stats help to normalize them over time. They help to explain a game dynamic

I've said it before and I'll say it again...the events correlated best with future wins is past wins. Nothing fancy.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Gallagher gets hit like that all the time when he's in a dirty area, it's the way the game is played. He's a foot smaller then most players and he takes that punishment. If you don't want that cross check keep away from that area. I wouldn't have my star player in that area considering he's way more leathal just shooting the puck. Looking forward to an entertaining game, leafs are playing great, if we can stay from taking penalties habs should win if not then its an easy win for the Leafs

You guys aren’t better if both teams are in form lol, and not just the PP your bottom 6 is better our top 6 is miles ahead of yours in terms of elite skill and our Defenses are built completely differently, if we are moving the puck well then your D will look like red white and blue pylons if we are slow then your trees on your back end will eat us alive...super simple really

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If the stat has a "None or Very weak effect size", that doesn't sound good. Please explain what you mean - what kind of question would you have to ask that would make the stat more meaningful?

"Are the Leafs effective at limiting shots against?"

 

[ShaneFalco]

If Vesey doesn't show anything again tonight, it's time to sit him and give someone else a shot

 

[ToneDog]

First big test of the season for both teams. Let's see who shows up and who does not.

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

If Vesey doesn't show anything again tonight, it's time to sit him and give someone else a shot

What a mediocre player. Showed some touch the first few games but holy hell if he doesn’t score he does nothing at all. I cant wait for Nicky to take his place. I feel like Nylander Tavares and Robertson would be a deadly line

 

[ShaneFalco]

What a mediocre player. Showed some touch the first few games but holy hell if he doesn’t score he does nothing at all. I cant wait for Nicky to take his place. I feel like Nylander Tavares and Robertson would be a deadly line

He's been given every opportunity and most games you wonder if he even played

 

[Gary Nylund]

"Are the Leafs effective at limiting shots against?"

Sorry but you lost me.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Who’s concerned. I’m still stuck in a loop of Orr and McLaren beating the entire team. Then the guy wouldn’t play for us or accept a trade. Georges was his name i think.

People were saying put Sabourin in the game.

 

[Optimist]

 

[Bigbadhabs33]

You guys aren’t better if both teams are in form lol, and not just the PP your bottom 6 is better our top 6 is miles ahead of yours in terms of elite skill and our Defenses are built completely differently, if we are moving the puck well then your D will look like red white and blue pylons if we are slow then your trees on your back end will eat us alive...super simple really

I wasn't saying the habs are a better team but so far this season they are better 5 on 5, it's not a secret. The leafs big 3 are great, mathews is the best scorer and becoming better and better. I wouldn't say the top 6 is miles ahead. Mathews and Mitch are top tier, Johnny is great and Willie disappears in the playoffs. Then there is a significant drop off after those 4. Habs top 6 are more defense minded but still can score just not as potent as the leafs. Regardless how the season plays out, even if the Leafs finish on top, it's how they play in the playoffs will determine their success. In my opinion if the leafs don't come out of the division in my eyes they failed. As for the habs, I'm just happy bergy finally spent to the cap and we have a competitive team. BTW I like the leafs, I live in Toronto and root for them when they dont play my habs

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Sorry but you lost me.

It's a meaningful question that the stat answers, that has nothing to do with its r2 value.

The point is that if the question is "What's one single stat that will tell me which teams will play the best defense moving forward?", all stats will let you down. Also, people will let you down.

But in a fluid game with many variables that change over time, to have one that tells even 19% of the story is actually substantial. It's not a single stat that tells all. But if you can say that "Good defense can be attributed 19% to shot suppression", then that's a big piece of the pie you're dealing with. It's not the whole thing -- there's a long tail of factors. But it's not trash or useless.

It all comes down to the question being asked of the stat.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's a meaningful question that the stat answers, that has nothing to do with its r2 value.

The point is that if the question is "What's one single stat that will tell me which teams will play the best defense moving forward?", all stats will let you down. Also, people will let you down.

But in a fluid game with many variables that change over time, to have one that tells even 19% of the story is actually substantial. It's not a single stat that tells all. But if you can say that "Good defense can be attributed 19% to shot suppression", then that's a big piece of the pie you're dealing with. It's not the whole thing -- there's a long tail of factors. But it's not trash or useless.

It all comes down to the question being asked of the stat.

Sure that's fair, thanks for explaining what you meant.

 

[Rude Dog]

How long does Teflon Carey Price get to keep his handle as one of the best goalies on the planet? Yet another season where his stats don't match his hype. Wasn't in the top 25 last year. They have a better team in front of his this year. Same result.

Goalies with over 5 games played. Price is 29th Save percentage. 25th in GAA

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I wasn't saying the habs are a better team but so far this season they are better 5 on 5, it's not a secret. The leafs big 3 are great, mathews is the best scorer and becoming better and better. I wouldn't say the top 6 is miles ahead. Mathews and Mitch are top tier, Johnny is great and Willie disappears in the playoffs. Then there is a significant drop off after those 4. Habs top 6 are more defense minded but still can score just not as potent as the leafs. Regardless how the season plays out, even if the Leafs finish on top, it's how they play in the playoffs will determine their success. In my opinion if the leafs don't come out of the division in my eyes they failed. As for the habs, I'm just happy bergy finally spent to the cap and we have a competitive team. BTW I like the leafs, I live in Toronto and root for them when they dont play my habs

All good lol I was just pointing it out and our 5 (Hyman) I would stack up against the Han #5 every day and twice on Sunday’s the man is a gamer beyond what very few NHLers are

 

[lebdafor norris]

This doesn't surprise me the least bit. Stats are interesting to look at and I wouldn't say they're complete garbage (though I suppose I could be wrong) but I've always thought some people rely on them waaaaaaaaaaaay too much. Hockey is such a fluid game, so hard to measure what's happening on the ice and so many different variables to consider for context. I doubt hockey stats will ever be anywhere near as meaningful as baseball stats, maybe one day they'll be somewhat close but IMHO that day is still far off in the distance.

A low R2 pretty much means you cant simply use Corsi alone to predict how good the Leafs defence will be. In some research, low R2 models are used in topics that are just to complex to sum with just 1 variable or 1 formula such a human behaviour, hockey falls under this category as predicting it with just 1 variable (shots allowed) or 1 formula (xGA) wont work, you kind of really have too dig the entire numbers to get a clearer picture making it more complicated compare to Baseball were the amazing WAR and BABIP stat can tell you most of what you need to know. But you are right, I kinda went overboard when I call those stats hot garbage, I just though it would be much more effective/reliable than what the article showed.

For comparison this poster actually went out of his way to show how effective baseball's popular WAR stat is at predicting wins, although his sample size of 1 season was too small, we probably need 5-10 seasons to get more conclusive results but either way fangraphs R2 gave a .701 score while the often overlook BBref WAR formula gave a shockingly high .869 score.

 

[Warden of the North]

730 start. Gross

 

[Mess]

Looking forward to seeing some real competition again today for the Leafs.

I suspect these 2 teams will be battling it out for the Div lead in the North Div when all the dust settles.

Leafs took game #1 in OT and hopefully they continue their winning ways with another W today. Its always a special feeling beating the arch rival Habs.

If Leafs keep beating Habs and winning the season series, while beating up on the weak links of the CDN div this will be clear sailing to a playoff birth and winning the Div.

 

[horner]

Playoff game tonight.
All lines need to bring it .

Especially the bottom six need to bring a physical element to there game .

Let's see how much Simmons means to this team .

 

[Bigbadhabs33]

How long does Teflon Carey Price get to keep his handle as one of the best goalies on the planet? Yet another season where his stats don't match his hype. Wasn't in the top 25 last year. They have a better team in front of his this year. Same result.

Goalies with over 5 games played. Price is 29th Save percentage. 25th in GAA

Got to look beyond that his 5 on 5 save percentage is top notch and so is his danger shots, his pk hasn't been great therefore his save percentage sucks. I do agree outside of the bubble he hasn't looked that great in the last couple of years. Not sure if its a combination of players assuming he will make every save or hes just getting older

 

[Bigbadhabs33]

Looking forward to seeing some real competition again today for the Leafs.

I suspect these 2 teams will be battling it out for the Div lead in the North Div when all the dust settles.

Leafs took game #1 in OT and hopefully they continue their winning ways with another W today. Its always a special feeling beating the arch rival Habs.

If Leafs keep beating Habs and winning the season series, while beating up on the weak links of the CDN div this will be clear sailing to a playoff birth and winning the Div.

Well I hope you're satisfied winning the division, maybe they will raise a division banner up on the rafters.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Am I the only one not really concerned about Montreal? I’m not saying they’re not a strong team that will take games against us, but overall for 1st in the North?

Montreal is punching way above their weight right now, unless people actually believe Toffoli and Anderson are going to score 40 and Petry is above a PPG Dman.

I’m fully expecting a drop off, considering they’re also getting excellent goaltending between Price and Allen and have suffered zero injuries.

Price has not been himself .. da Habs faithful are not happy ... many want Allen to play more ... but their top 4 dmen are controlling every game ... and they got a young Russian kid who is 5th dman who is great on PP ... and their forwards are 4 lines deep and fast ... they are not going anywhere ... it will be a year long fight with Habs for 1st place ... they will both end up 20 points higher than 4th place team ... da only real issue left is who has to scrap Peg in 1st round ... I hope it is Habs