Pre-Game Talk: Leafs @ Habs: Wednesday 7:30pm

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by willmma, Feb 9, 2021.

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  1. BoredBrandonPridham Registered User

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    The r2 is not as important as the question being asked from the stat.
     
  2. LEAFANFORLIFE23 Registered User

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    Win tonight and you start to put some real distance between yourself and the rest of the pack
     
  3. Gary Nylund Registered User

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    If the stat has a "None or Very weak effect size", that doesn't sound good. Please explain what you mean - what kind of question would you have to ask that would make the stat more meaningful?
     
  4. Notsince67 Papi and the Lamplighters

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    Eye tests are pretty bad too judging from this forum.
    I would use everything contextually and the most important thing is the presence of a brain. Eye tests are essential but due to the high variability of game performances, the stats help to normalize them over time. They help to explain a game dynamic

    I've said it before and I'll say it again...the events correlated best with future wins is past wins. Nothing fancy.
     
  5. JayfromNB1219 Registered User

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    You guys aren’t better if both teams are in form lol, and not just the PP your bottom 6 is better our top 6 is miles ahead of yours in terms of elite skill and our Defenses are built completely differently, if we are moving the puck well then your D will look like red white and blue pylons if we are slow then your trees on your back end will eat us alive...super simple really
     
  6. BoredBrandonPridham Registered User

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    "Are the Leafs effective at limiting shots against?"
     
  7. Lumberg HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    If Vesey doesn't show anything again tonight, it's time to sit him and give someone else a shot
     
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  8. ToneDog 54 years and counting

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    First big test of the season for both teams. Let's see who shows up and who does not.
     
  9. ForzaZuffa Registered User

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    What a mediocre player. Showed some touch the first few games but holy hell if he doesn’t score he does nothing at all. I cant wait for Nicky to take his place. I feel like Nylander Tavares and Robertson would be a deadly line
     
  10. Lumberg HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    He's been given every opportunity and most games you wonder if he even played
     
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  11. Gary Nylund Registered User

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    Sorry but you lost me.
     
  12. Suntouchable13 Registered User

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    People were saying put Sabourin in the game.
     
  13. Optimist Wendel and I

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  14. Bigbadhabs33 Registered User

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    I wasn't saying the habs are a better team but so far this season they are better 5 on 5, it's not a secret. The leafs big 3 are great, mathews is the best scorer and becoming better and better. I wouldn't say the top 6 is miles ahead. Mathews and Mitch are top tier, Johnny is great and Willie disappears in the playoffs. Then there is a significant drop off after those 4. Habs top 6 are more defense minded but still can score just not as potent as the leafs. Regardless how the season plays out, even if the Leafs finish on top, it's how they play in the playoffs will determine their success. In my opinion if the leafs don't come out of the division in my eyes they failed. As for the habs, I'm just happy bergy finally spent to the cap and we have a competitive team. BTW I like the leafs, I live in Toronto and root for them when they dont play my habs
     
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  15. BoredBrandonPridham Registered User

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    It's a meaningful question that the stat answers, that has nothing to do with its r2 value.

    The point is that if the question is "What's one single stat that will tell me which teams will play the best defense moving forward?", all stats will let you down. Also, people will let you down.

    But in a fluid game with many variables that change over time, to have one that tells even 19% of the story is actually substantial. It's not a single stat that tells all. But if you can say that "Good defense can be attributed 19% to shot suppression", then that's a big piece of the pie you're dealing with. It's not the whole thing -- there's a long tail of factors. But it's not trash or useless.

    It all comes down to the question being asked of the stat.
     
  16. Gary Nylund Registered User

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    Sure that's fair, thanks for explaining what you meant.
     
  17. Rude Dog Registered User

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    How long does Teflon Carey Price get to keep his handle as one of the best goalies on the planet? Yet another season where his stats don't match his hype. Wasn't in the top 25 last year. They have a better team in front of his this year. Same result.

    Goalies with over 5 games played. Price is 29th Save percentage. 25th in GAA
     
  18. JayfromNB1219 Registered User

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    All good lol I was just pointing it out and our 5 (Hyman) I would stack up against the Han #5 every day and twice on Sunday’s the man is a gamer beyond what very few NHLers are
     
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  19. lebdafor norris sleepy

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    A low R2 pretty much means you cant simply use Corsi alone to predict how good the Leafs defence will be. In some research, low R2 models are used in topics that are just to complex to sum with just 1 variable or 1 formula such a human behaviour, hockey falls under this category as predicting it with just 1 variable (shots allowed) or 1 formula (xGA) wont work, you kind of really have too dig the entire numbers to get a clearer picture making it more complicated compare to Baseball were the amazing WAR and BABIP stat can tell you most of what you need to know. But you are right, I kinda went overboard when I call those stats hot garbage, I just though it would be much more effective/reliable than what the article showed.

    For comparison this poster actually went out of his way to show how effective baseball's popular WAR stat is at predicting wins, although his sample size of 1 season was too small, we probably need 5-10 seasons to get more conclusive results but either way fangraphs R2 gave a .701 score while the often overlook BBref WAR formula gave a shockingly high .869 score.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2021
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  20. Warden of the North The Matthews Show

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    730 start. Gross
     
  21. Mess Global Moderator

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    Looking forward to seeing some real competition again today for the Leafs.

    I suspect these 2 teams will be battling it out for the Div lead in the North Div when all the dust settles.

    Leafs took game #1 in OT and hopefully they continue their winning ways with another W today. Its always a special feeling beating the arch rival Habs.

    If Leafs keep beating Habs and winning the season series, while beating up on the weak links of the CDN div this will be clear sailing to a playoff birth and winning the Div.
     
  22. horner Registered User

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    Playoff game tonight.
    All lines need to bring it .

    Especially the bottom six need to bring a physical element to there game .

    Let's see how much Simmons means to this team .
     
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  23. Bigbadhabs33 Registered User

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    Got to look beyond that his 5 on 5 save percentage is top notch and so is his danger shots, his pk hasn't been great therefore his save percentage sucks. I do agree outside of the bubble he hasn't looked that great in the last couple of years. Not sure if its a combination of players assuming he will make every save or hes just getting older
     
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  24. Bigbadhabs33 Registered User

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    Well I hope you're satisfied winning the division, maybe they will raise a division banner up on the rafters.
     
  25. JT AM da real deal Registered User

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    Price has not been himself .. da Habs faithful are not happy ... many want Allen to play more ... but their top 4 dmen are controlling every game ... and they got a young Russian kid who is 5th dman who is great on PP ... and their forwards are 4 lines deep and fast ... they are not going anywhere ... it will be a year long fight with Habs for 1st place ... they will both end up 20 points higher than 4th place team ... da only real issue left is who has to scrap Peg in 1st round ... I hope it is Habs
     
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