Post-Game Talk: Leafs fall again.

[Bomber0104]

When were these "predictions" made?

Because if they were made yesterday, I had much better results using win and losses. It was 100% accurate.

Goal differential was far better than Corsi as well.

 

[Zybalto]

When were these "predictions" made?

Because if they were made yesterday, I had much better results using win and losses. It was 100% accurate.

Just pointing out that they are a good tool to judge how dominant a team/player is in certain areas. Dismissing them while trying to sound clever is foolish.

 

[moon111]

The problem I have with Nylander is he doesn't seem very coachable. Nylander is going to Nylander no matter what the situation. Honestly I think Nylander needs to go to a team that is bad like the 2014-15 Leafs where anyone who could possibly score was always playing comeback hockey and taking chances to try and even it up was their entire game. At this, he would succeed at. With slightly more ice-time, Nylander has been on for three more power play goals then Tyler Ennis. Off the power-play, he's been on for 32 goals for, 36 against. He's like a gold plated shovel digging his own hole. His pluses come from mostly 'playing' weaker teams, not 'working' for a win. The only reason he's not a complete tire-fire is Babcock has give him a lot of ice-time with line-mates that were working rather then playing.

From Babcock's viewpoint, he's probably hating this McElhinney v.s. Sparks thing, but for Dubas, it's the right choice. At worst, you're back-up sucks for one season. If you look,
Bobrovsky, Varlamov, Elliott, Nilsson, Ryan Miller, Mrazek, and McElhinney are all unrestricted free agents next season. And there's a lot more netminders who might not have
as great of stats due to the teams they're on who would jump at the chance to back-up Toronto.

Personally, I really wish the Leafs had the cap room to sign Robin Lehner. Bhah ha ha ha ha.

 

[Zybalto]

Goal differential was far better than Corsi as well.

Goal differential is great for judging teams on its face but very tricky with players as usage and QoC play a massive part.

 

[RLF]

Goal differential is great for judging teams on its face but very tricky with players as usage and QoC play a massive part.

If you look at goal differentials of top 10 teams and bottom 10 teams like you did for Corsi and SCF% where you had 2 outliers, all top 10 are in the playoffs and all bottom 10 out of the playoffs. No outliers. Which would be more conclusive?

 

[WilliamNylander]

I think that was probably Sparks last game ever in a Leafs jersey

 

[Bomber0104]

Goal differential is great for judging teams on its face but very tricky with players as usage and QoC play a massive part.

So why exactly did you just use a less reliable stat (Corsi) over a near-perfect one (goal differential) for "judging teams" ?

Strange..

 

[Marshy]

I think that was probably Sparks last game ever in a Leafs jersey

I think you are likely right I thought the same. Garrett probably knew deep down that he was playing for his Maple Leaf career last night. I wish the team had a bit more favourable conditions instead of playing a Carolina team deperate for points on a back to back after clinching a playoff spot the night before. It is what it is though. Sometimes a goalie needs to be there for the team when the team is not at their best. 3 soft goals against isn't going to cut it in big games. This was a big game for the Canes. The Leafs were lucky it wasn't a big game for them in terms of getting points.

 

[robertmac43]

Honestly I think Nylander needs to go to a team that is bad like the 2014-15 Leafs where anyone who could possibly score was always playing comeback hockey and taking chances to try and even it up was their entire game.

So are we just disregarding the two seasons prior where he had plenty of offensive success looked solid?

 

[Trapper]

I think you are likely right I thought the same. Garrett probably knew deep down that he was playing for his Maple Leaf career last night. I wish the team had a bit more favourable conditions instead of playing a Carolina team deperate for points on a back to back after clinching a playoff spot the night before. It is what it is though. Sometimes a goalie needs to be there for the team when the team is not at their best. 3 soft goals against isn't going to cut it in big games. This was a big game for the Canes. The Leafs were lucky it wasn't a big game for them in terms of getting points.

I guess we will see just how player friendly Dubas is.
What does his process tell him to do next?

 

[FlareKnight]

I think you are likely right I thought the same. Garrett probably knew deep down that he was playing for his Maple Leaf career last night. I wish the team had a bit more favourable conditions instead of playing a Carolina team deperate for points on a back to back after clinching a playoff spot the night before. It is what it is though. Sometimes a goalie needs to be there for the team when the team is not at their best. 3 soft goals against isn't going to cut it in big games. This was a big game for the Canes. The Leafs were lucky it wasn't a big game for them in terms of getting points.

It wasn't a great scenario. But honestly it wasn't the worst either. Carolina didn't get a mountain of high quality chances. They scored two on the most harmless opportunities I've seen go in the net in a while. If he was a good goalie then he could have had a great night and even gotten a win. For a desperate team, Carolina looked a bit out of gas. I'd say their intense run for the playoffs is coming to haunt them.

He just isn't very good. Seems capable enough to make a good career as an AHL starter for teams that don't care about developing their own goaltending. But that's the ceiling.

 

[egd27]

Just pointing out that they are a good tool to judge how dominant a team/player is in certain areas. Dismissing them while trying to sound clever is foolish.

I find them interesting, but question their value as a predictive tool as you really don't know what the advance stats are until the game has been played.

 

[Mugzy97]

I think that was probably Sparks last game ever in a Leafs jersey

Highly doubt it

 

[sheed36]

Montreals schedule has made it easy for them to be challenging for a playoff spot. The amount of times Montreal gets to play a team on the second half of a back to back is astonishing. Makes me wonder if the scheduler is from Montreal.

For giggles I went back and counted them up. Montreal played a team on the other teams back to back 11 times. That 22 points the the league basically just handed to Montreal. Toronto on the other hand played only 5 of the same thing. Montreal got to play over twice as many teams on the second half of a back to back rested.

I might have to go back and recount because one of Torontos second half of a back to back by an opponent might have been on a back to back themselves. Less than 5 is the league average. Montreal got 11. That is flat out cheating the schedule. No one else had more than 5.

I'd like to see the scheduler answer that. If not from Montreal, must be a Montreal fan. And Montreal won every one of them.

Sorry and I don't mean to derail your PGT but I just had to reply to the above post. There was a thread on the mainboard about each teams back to back and rested vs non rested games after the 2018-19 schedule was released and the numbers in that thread don't seem to line up with the numbers in your post.

If any team had a huge advantage of playing a tired team on the second half of a back to back while they were the rested team it was the Oilers with 18 games and that didn't really help them it seems.

Here's the HF thread with a graph of the breakdown in the OP.

The 18/19 Schedule - Tired/Rested games

 

[Matthews34]

Oh, just stop it.

No! I like having my feet firming planted in reality.

 

[8816 others]

Sorry and I don't mean to derail your PGT but I just had to reply to the above post. There was a thread on the mainboard about each teams back to back and rested vs non rested games after the 2018-19 schedule was released and the numbers in that thread don't seem to line up with the numbers in your post.

If any team had a huge advantage of playing a tired team on the second half of a back to back while they were the rested team it was the Oilers with 18 games and that didn't really help them it seems.

Here's the HF thread with a graph of the breakdown in the OP.

The 18/19 Schedule - Tired/Rested games

 

[sheed36]

I was gonna attach the picture to my post but didn't want to take up too much space with my post. Thanks for posting.

 

[RLF]

I find them interesting, but question their value as a predictive tool as you really don't know what the advance stats are until the game has been played.

Only two stats were used to try and conclude ADV stats are predictive. One that shows you basically if a team gets a lot of shots on net and one that tells you if they are good at creating scoring chances in order to predict that the teams that are good at both have a better chance of winning than the ones who don't. Basically those two stats say if you spend more time in the opponents end and create scoring chances you likely win more than a team that spends more time in their end and have trouble creating scoring chances. Predictive? or pretty obvious?

 

[diceman934]

We had two shots on net in the first period. We got horrid goaltending and like the game before we kept trying to carry the puck in to the o zone against a trap team. So many turn overs in the N zone hurt us a lot. The offside was pure nonsense Mathews skated in a straight kind. So going offside is a lack of a thought process just a simply delay by taking one stride to his left or right and it is in side.

Two goals against when all you have to do is to stay against the post. Anyone of us could’ve stopped those shots.

 

[RLF]

We had two shots on net in the first period. We got horrid goaltending and like the game before we kept trying to carry the puck in to the o zone against a trap team. So many turn overs in the N zone hurt us a lot. The offside was pure nonsense Mathews skated in a straight kind. So going offside is a lack of a thought process just a simply delay by taking one stride to his left or right and it is in side.

Two goals against when all you have to do is to stay against the post. Anyone of us could’ve stopped those shots.

What happens if someone "moves the goalposts" though? Cause that happens a lot here.

 

[Mess]

The silver lining of this loss to the Canes for the Leafs is that it might mean Montreal is the team that misses the playoffs in the east.

As a diehard Leaf fan its in the blood to vigorously cheers against the Habs. So this loss hurts them more than it does the Leafs.

Leafs could deal the final nail in game #82.

 

[Kiwi]

So are we just disregarding the two seasons prior where he had plenty of offensive success looked solid?

How dare you

Why wouldn't we trade a highly gifted offensive player before he hits his prime at his lowest possible value?

We've done it many, many times before and it's always worked in our favor.....

I sometimes wonder if people were actually paying attention during those decades of suck or have a hankering for the "good old days"

 

[Trapper]

How dare you

Why wouldn't we trade a highly gifted offensive player before he hits his prime at his lowest possible value?

We've done it many, many times before and it's always worked in our favor.....

I sometimes wonder if people were actually paying attention during those decades of suck or have a hankering for the "good old days"

Why can’t we ever trade a good player for a good player?
Why can’t we ever trade an area of need for an area of more need?

Why does it have to be we lose if we become a better team overall?

 

[IPS]

Exactly... Winnipeg just got stomped too. Are they *****ing like this? Chill out. We're on the verge of another 100 point season

Yeah. Probably worse.

 

[moon111]

So are we just disregarding the two seasons prior where he had plenty of offensive success looked solid?

Nylander looks good cheating on defense being able to rush up the wing and passing the puck. If the Leafs are losing late in the third, he's perfect. But the reason they might be losing late in the third might be directly from him making a risky play that backfired. Dumping the puck into the corner for Hyman to fetch might not of been an exciting choice, but rarely did it lead to a two-on-one against Jake Gardiner either.