News: Leafs cap - Dubas: We can, and we will keep all our 4 top F

Status
Not open for further replies.

Kamiccolo

Truly wonderful, the mind of a child is.
Aug 30, 2011
26,828
16,944
Undisclosed research facility
Rielly has 8 assists in his last 15 games. Solid production no doubt but he’s not going to sustain being a point per game player.

They’re 8th in GA/GP and 3rd worst in 5V5 xGA/60 (according to moneypuck). Andersen is a fantastic goaltender but their defense is not very good.

Haha man the team as a whole has played like ass for a month. Using the last 15 games is about as poor of a stretch as you can point out for everyone. Regardless, he's elite in many ways not just points. Even at 70 points it's ridiculous.. He's the prototypical modern NHL D. Big, strong, can skate, moves the puck well, high IQ, strong vision and first pass.

As for your 8th in GA stuff, compare them to some other teams like Tampa bay for example who gets called an elite defensive team. See how they compare to the Leafs. Tampa is easily the best team in the league this year but the Leafs are right behind them and absolutely could beat them in a 7 game series.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,360
25,417
Fremont, CA
Haha man the team as a whole has played like ass for a month. Using the last 15 games is about as poor of a stretch as you can point out for everyone. Regardless, he's elite in many ways not just points. Even at 70 points it's ridiculous.. He's the prototypical modern NHL D. Big, strong, can skate, moves the puck well, high IQ, strong vision and first pass.

As for your 8th in GA stuff, compare them to some other teams like Tampa bay for example who gets called an elite defensive team. See how they compare to the Leafs. Tampa is easily the best team in the league this year but the Leafs are right behind them and absolutely could beat them in a 7 game series.

Okay, I’ll compare them.

Tampa: 2.11 xGA/60 (4th best)
Toronto: 2.42 xGA/60 (18th best)
Tampa: 84.3 PK% (2nd best)
Toronto: 80.5 PK% (14th best)

The Leafs are not right behind them. And they could not beat them in a 7 game series.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,360
25,417
Fremont, CA
Now that's a percentage, agreed.

It’s the same thing. It’s just written differently. Just as people say “he has a .930 SV%” or whatever.

A ratio is more like this:

Toronto to Winnipeg, against the East: .675:.640 or 1.054:1.

Toronto to Winnipeg, against the West: .667:.650 or 1.026:1.
 

Nalens Oga

Registered User
Jan 5, 2010
16,780
1,053
Canada
I think it's a bit concerning that Dubas seems to be buying into his own team's hype. I'd rather he be a bit more coy but he seems over-excitable over these guys. It's already resulted in one mistake imo (signing Matthews this early without getting a win on one of cap hit or term...AM34 gets a great contract and gets it done before even a proper playoff performance).

Matt Duchene was my favourite player and the idea of trading him was inconceivable but when he was moved, I loved the return and thought see ya later innovator. It was a necessary move, if Dubas needs to move one of the 4 forwards then he needs to move them, not idealize them as if they're 4 pillars that the team absolutely needs to win a cup in the future when they haven't even gone through one playoff series with them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JoeThorntonsRooster

Potrzebie

Registered User
Mar 25, 2010
2,326
2,889
Okay, I’ll compare them.

Tampa: 2.11 xGA/60 (4th best)
Toronto: 2.42 xGA/60 (18th best)
Tampa: 84.3 PK% (2nd best)
Toronto: 80.5 PK% (14th best)

The Leafs are not right behind them. And they could not beat them in a 7 game series.

Hey, anything's possible. Matthews could even hit 80 points one day.
 

Kamiccolo

Truly wonderful, the mind of a child is.
Aug 30, 2011
26,828
16,944
Undisclosed research facility
Okay, I’ll compare them.

Tampa: 2.11 xGA/60 (4th best)
Toronto: 2.42 xGA/60 (18th best)
Tampa: 84.3 PK% (2nd best)
Toronto: 80.5 PK% (14th best)

The Leafs are not right behind them. And they could not beat them in a 7 game series.

Why are you focusing on XGA? What about straight up GA and what I actually said which was high danger chances against.
 

Kamiccolo

Truly wonderful, the mind of a child is.
Aug 30, 2011
26,828
16,944
Undisclosed research facility
Hey, anything's possible. Matthews could even hit 80 points one day.

Do you really believe this or just trying to get a rise out of fans. He was PPG last year after putting up 40 goals and 69 points as a rookie, and now is on pace for 100 points. I think it's fair to say he is a 80 point player and will hit that number.
 

Nalens Oga

Registered User
Jan 5, 2010
16,780
1,053
Canada
The Leafs could definetely beat the Lightning in a playoff series next year imo. They'd need a new coach though. The problem is that it'll probably take an extra year or two to fire Babcock after this season (unless he goes deep which I doubt but you never know). By that point though, you've already used up one or two years of the Matthews contract and are entering more of a cap crunch than next year which is the ideal situation to go for it.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,360
25,417
Fremont, CA
Why are you focusing on XGA? What about straight up GA and what I actually said which was high danger chances against.

Because xGA is entirely a function of their skaters (and a superior metric to HDCA, where they rank 12th best per 60) where as GA includes goaltending which is definitely very strong but also isn’t sustainable IMO.
 

Kamiccolo

Truly wonderful, the mind of a child is.
Aug 30, 2011
26,828
16,944
Undisclosed research facility
Because xGA is entirely a function of their skaters (and a superior metric to HDCA, where they rank 12th best per 60) where as GA includes goaltending which is definitely very strong but also isn’t sustainable IMO.

Oh it includes goaltending. That makes sense. I wonder if you took out Sparks and Hutch's games I wonder what that number is.. Probably not possible. You realize Andersen was hurt since the beginning of December and played some bad hockey before being forced to be off for a month and then Sparks started a few and got concussed.. So they called up their AHL starter who played a bunch of games against good teams.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
So, Winnipeg having a higher points percentage against the East than the West, and a higher points percentage against both conferences than Toronto isn't evidence that Winnipeg isn't an inferior team who is "record padding against a weaker conference".

But ESPN's "strength of schedule" ranking is...

er, yeah, espn's strength of schedule metric is much better than whatever halfarsed thing you just tried to cobble together there.

How about the fact that Tampa is doing what they're doing with a 101.08 PDO, while Toronto has a 102.94 PDO? How about the fact that Tampa has a 1.55% higher xGF%? How about the fact that Tampa has a 3.8% higher PK%?

yep, tbay ranks 6th in xGF%, toronto ranks 9th. pretty close. and muzzin replacing hainsey on the top pair addresses the biggest possession sinkhole on the team this year, so it'll be no surprise to see that gap continue to close going forward. (already 59+xgf% since muzzin got here).

and yep, you're right - they've got an advantage on the PK too.

and hey, why didn't you use xGF% for the jets?
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Okay, I’ll compare them.

Tampa: 2.11 xGA/60 (4th best)
Toronto: 2.42 xGA/60 (18th best)
Tampa: 84.3 PK% (2nd best)
Toronto: 80.5 PK% (14th best)

The Leafs are not right behind them. And they could not beat them in a 7 game series.

interesting. splitting up xgf and xga as if they're not directly dependant on each other. that's solid stats spin.

I gather you agree that the Leafs are a much better offensive team than the bolts, then?

TOR 2.65xgf/60 #4
TBL 2.46xgf/60 #11
 
  • Like
Reactions: unitedstars87

member 290103

Guest
So he should just let AM walk instead or do you think someone would had forced him to sign something cheaper?

I think it's funny that first everyone was saying Dufas was this boy genius that was going to magically build a cup winner. Jim Benning could have put together the deals he has thus far though. His performance has been dismal.
 

member 290103

Guest
So he should just let AM walk instead or do you think someone would had forced him to sign something cheaper?

I think it's funny that first everyone was saying Dufas was this boy genius that was going to magically build a cup winner. Jim Benning could have put together the deals he has thus far though. His performance has been dismal.
 

Grimmas

Registered User
Mar 13, 2009
251
44
Toronto, Ontario
I think it's funny that first everyone was saying Dufas was this boy genius that was going to magically build a cup winner. Jim Benning could have put together the deals he has thus far though. His performance has been dismal.

1. Signed Tavares
2. Signed Nylander
3. Traded for Muzzin without giving up anything on his roster
4. Signed Matthews

Nope that looks like a great record so far to me. You might have missed it, but Leafs are a Cup contender right now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: thunder16

Stubu

Registered User
Dec 16, 2015
4,097
4,758
F.
It’s the same thing. It’s just written differently. Just as people say “he has a .930 SV%” or whatever.

A ratio is more like this:

Toronto to Winnipeg, against the East: .675:.640 or 1.054:1.

Toronto to Winnipeg, against the West: .667:.650 or 1.026:1.
Not to take this OT too far, but... of course they represent the same thing. But if would be fairly daft to claim a percentage is the same thing as a ratio. Let's not throw the vocabulary completely off kilter... And those ratios of ratios of yours are just weird as examples. However, there isn't really anything to disagree on here so maybe let's just drop the subject. It's OT anyway. (Mea culpa.)
 

nturn06

Registered User
Nov 9, 2017
3,582
2,855
So he should just let AM walk instead or do you think someone would had forced him to sign something cheaper?

Unless you really believe that your GM is incompetent, there should be an alternative to either sign him to a bad deal or let him walk...
 

Grimmas

Registered User
Mar 13, 2009
251
44
Toronto, Ontario
Unless you really believe that your GM is incompetent, there should be an alternative to either sign him to a bad deal or let him walk...
Well he did sign him to a fair deal, so that is what happened.

What would you have done? How are you a better GM? You would force him to sign less, which he wouldn't or trade him or let him walk or sign him to the fair deal he signed for?
 

member 290103

Guest
1. Signed Tavares
2. Signed Nylander
3. Traded for Muzzin without giving up anything on his roster
4. Signed Matthews

Nope that looks like a great record so far to me. You might have missed it, but Leafs are a Cup contender right now.

1. Gifted to him
2. Terrible contract, should have traded him.
3. Decent move
4. Terrible contract.

So, thus far, he's been gifted a player, made two horrible moves and one solid move. Sounds very sub-mediocre to me.
 

Grimmas

Registered User
Mar 13, 2009
251
44
Toronto, Ontario
1. Gifted to him
2. Terrible contract, should have traded him.
3. Decent move
4. Terrible contract.

So, thus far, he's been gifted a player, made two horrible moves and one solid move. Sounds very sub-mediocre to me.

1. Nobody thought he was going to Toronto up until he did. Everybody thought he was resigning, if not going to SJ. You are re-visioning history.
2. LOL
3. ok
4. LOL

Fair deals are not terrible. Got it.

You will be amazed after this summer and all these big RFAs resign for terrible contracts in your book..
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->