Proposal: Leafs/Canucks

[Horse McHindu]

I don't dispute that hockeydb is very basic.

But as long as the collection of data varies so much from playing surface to playing surface, I do not intend to put my faith in so-called "advanced metrics".

It's a nice shiny new toy that I often compare to the Emperor's New Clothes.

Per 60.

Exactly.

Advanced stats are great and all, and @Randy Randerson clearly has an excellent understanding of advanced analytics, but at the end of the day, Kapanen has been in the NHL for a few seasons now and has struggled.

There is a LOT more to hockey than Advanced Stats! Advanced Stats are a useful guide, but do not explain the entire picture.

It’s the same thing with Brendan Gaunce. The advanced stats community in Vancouver love this guy, but there’s also a valid reason as to why Gaunce has primarily been a 4th liner for most of his time in the NHL.

Kapanen thus far, has shown nothing other than impressing a bunch of dudes that can read a spreadsheet.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Nope, it'a start but it needs a wholla lot of fine tuning.

Their predictive value, in the meantime, is quite limited.

People putting all their faith into some of them... Well, it makes it easy for them.

Per 60.

again, the basic "advanced" stats are not predictive, they're a measure of what is actually happening - Corsi, Fenwick, all the High Danger versions of the same are not predictive by intent, though they do have a tendency to repeat after a certain sample size, and they absolutely line up with the eye test

btw, secondary assists have classically been the least consistently kept stats in the game, should we invalidate the scoring records?

Exactly.

Advanced stats are great and all, and @Randy Randerson clearly has an excellent understanding of advanced analytics, but at the end of the day, Kapanen has been in the NHL for a few seasons now and has struggled.

There is a LOT more to hockey than Advanced Stats! Advanced Stats are a useful guide, but do not explain the entire picture.

It’s the same thing with Brendan Gaunce. The advanced stats community in Vancouver love this guy, but there’s also a valid reason as to why Gaunce has primarily been a 4th liner for most of his time in the NHL.

Kapanen thus far, has shown nothing other than impressing a bunch of dudes that can read a spreadsheet.

the fact that you think he's struggled means that you're relying entirely on hockeydb to evaluate, he has been very good in his role (eye test included) for the last 2 seasons, so if you're watching you're seeing him play well. He only doesn't look good if you're evaluating by points per game, which of course also doesn't even account for that he plays 11 mins per game with no pp time

 

[Baksfamous112]

again, the basic "advanced" stats are not predictive, they're a measure of what is actually happening - Corsi, Fenwick, all the High Danger versions of the same are not predictive by intent, though they do have a tendency to repeat after a certain sample size, and they absolutely line up with the eye test

btw, secondary assists have classically been the least consistently kept stats in the game, should we invalidate the scoring records?


the fact that you think he's struggled means that you're relying entirely on hockeydb to evaluate, he has been very good in his role (eye test included) for the last 2 seasons, so if you're watching you're seeing him play well. He only doesn't look good if you're evaluating by points per game, which of course also doesn't even account for that he plays 11 mins per game with no pp time

weren’t those same advanced stats saying that Petry is a top 25 D in the league? And wasn’t it those stats that were definitive about Mark Barberio being a solid top 4 D and Shea Weber a 3rd pairing D? Those are only a few examples...

 

[Randy Randerson]

weren’t those same advanced stats saying that Petry is a top 25 D in the league? And wasn’t it those stats that were definitive about Mark Barberio being a solid top 4 D and Shea Weber a 3rd pairing D? Those are only a few examples...

A few examples that are terribly fabricated, yes. Barberio doesn't show well by possession metrics, Weber had been showing signs of decline but bounced back for the time he played last year and has always faced high end competition in big minutes, Petry is a very good possession player but plays against more middling level competition generally

You should stay on the sidelines of these types of discussions

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

btw, secondary assists have classically been the least consistently kept stats in the game, should we invalidate the scoring records?

What has that to do with anything ?

Numbers are numbers.

They don't mean anything by themselves, especially if the data collection is iffy.

The numbers are there and they will stay there.

The inferences you draw from them ?

That's where the shoe pinches.

 

[Randy Randerson]

What has that to do with anything ?

Numbers are numbers.

They don't mean anything by themselves, especially if the data collection is iffy.

The numbers are there and they will stay there.

The inferences you draw from them ?

That's where the shoe pinches.

so again, are we back to there's nothing but eye test? If you put any stock in point totals then you're contradicting yourself

btw, there's a high level of correlation between the underlying possession metrics and winning teams as they're currently collected

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

(1) so again, are we back to there's nothing but eye test?
(2) If you put any stock in point totals then you're contradicting yourself (...)

(1) Where did I ever say this ?

The so-called "advanced metrics", as used by many posters, are nothing but magic beans.

I expect that they will one day be refined to a point where they will mean something.

That day has not arrived yet.

(2) I must humbly admit that I don't see in whichever way, shape or form you went from what I wrote to this.

 

[zeke]

weren’t those same advanced stats saying that Petry is a top 25 D in the league? And wasn’t it those stats that were definitive about Mark Barberio being a solid top 4 D and Shea Weber a 3rd pairing D? Those are only a few examples...

all those Examples are explained by foolishly ignoring quality of competition.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

all those Examples are explained by foolishly ignoring quality of competition.

Magic beans ?

Per 60.

 

[zeke]

Magic beans ?

Per 60.

you will change reality by repeating things on a message board.

keep fighting the good fight.

 

[Kent Nilsson]

Magic beans ?

Per 60.

It was funny the first three times.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

you will change reality by repeating things on a message board.

keep fighting the good fight.

I learned from the best (and the worst, and the middling).

I'll let you decide where you fit.

Per 60.

 

[zeke]

I learned from the best (and the worst, and the middling).

I'll let you decide where you fit.

Per 60.

try learning from reality.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

try learning from reality.

You really don't want me learning from you ?

At least, you're realistic.

Per 60.

 

[Liferleafer]

I learned from the best (and the worst, and the middling).

I'll let you decide where you fit.

Per 60.

Hey...look who's in another Leafs thread...hiw are the Habs looking?

 

[zeke]

You really don't want me learning from you ?

At least, you're realistic.

Per 60.

I don't care what you do.

you can ignore reality all you want.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Hey...look who's in another Leafs thread...hiw are the Habs looking?

On the main board ?

Are Canadiens' fans persona non grata ?

 

[Liferleafer]

On the main board ?

Are Canadiens' fans persona non grata ?

Nope...just figured you might want to talk abouf the Habs....

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

I don't care what you do.

you can ignore reality all you want.

You are probably getting tired.

Not your best retort.

And I have no intention to do what you do.

"Bozak was on pace for..." after his first half-season.

Good times.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Nope...just figured you might want to talk abouf the Habs....

You figured wrong.

Is that an habit ?

 

[Liferleafer]

You figured wrong.

Is that an habit ?

Habit....something one does consistantly or often.

Like you....posting in every Leafs thread.

 

[Randy Randerson]

(1) Where did I ever say this ?

The so-called "advanced metrics", as used by many posters, are nothing but magic beans.

I expect that they will one day be refined to a point where they will mean something.

That day has not arrived yet.

(2) I must humbly admit that I don't see in whichever way, shape or form you went from what I wrote to this.

(1) you continually cast dispersions on the validity of the data because of the way its collected (which is actually pretty consistent), so if advanced metrics (really don't think they should be called that anymore, they're part of the landscape now, let's call them "possession metrics") are to be called into question then box score stats (which are awarded less consistently) need to be called into question too

methinks you're clinging to the past, old man

(2) that's either hilariously ironic, or proves my point above

 

[zeke]

You are probably getting tired.

Not your best retort.

And I have no intention to do what you do.

"Bozak was on pace for..." after his first half-season.

Good times.

I used to deny reality too, finding every hole in the advanced stats and dismissing them. That was a mistake that led to many mistakes. I was smart enough to learn from mine.

But you do whatever makes you happy now that your team is in the crapper.

p.s. Bozak was on pace for 60pts as a rook. has paced 50pts for his career. paced 55 in his prime years. pretty close. Looking at his advanced stats, of course, would have given me a much better picture of what he was. But i was too busy dismissing the advanced stats back then. Like you.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Habit....something one does consistantly or often.

Like you....posting in every Leafs thread.

It's better than figuring something wrong, n'est-ce pas ?

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

methinks you're clinging to the past, old man

Best sign of someone losing an argument: resorting to personal attacks.