Leafs - By the Numbers

[Twine Tickler]

5v5 is definitely a mild concern. But I dont think that will last.

The core guys will heat up and some depth guys seem over due for some garbage goals. Thougg obviously you can see why the Leafs are shopping for an extra forward.

A healthy Thornton and a healthy Robertson are another way to help out at even strength

I agree, I think that's an underappreciated aspect of this 7-2-1 record. We have had a fair share of injuries. Including a rookie star, who I am certain would be playing in place of soup on the second line right now, and likely more effective. Jumbo, who say what you will about him, but Jumbo/Matts/Marner has been our best 5v5 line all year. Commanding 73.7% xGF while on the ice together in comparison to 44.8% xGF when its X-Matts-Marner.

and then to a lesser degree we lost soup in the cage, which hasn't reared its ugly head yet.

 

[GlitchMarner]

For example, both Rielly and Matthews improve when playing with each other but Rielly falls off a literal cliff.

Rielly/Matthews together: 57.37

Rielly without Matthews: 48.82

Matthews without Rielly: 27.29

Are you sure these numbers are correct? Matthews is at 27.29% without Rielly or vice versa?

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Math was done before last nights game:

Top 3 Negative Hits Differential/Games Played followed by Penalty Minute differential/Games played:

1. Toronto: -8.556 (3.4 minutes less on the PP per game than their opponents)
2. Winnipeg: -6.286 (3 minutes more on the PP per game than their opponents)
3. Buffalo: -5.250 (3.7 minutes more on the PP per game than their opponents)

This is "by the numbers" and the numbers are saying its not just the eye test....The Leafs are getting screwed pretty hard so far this year.

Maybe last nights game finally didnt have a play that made you pull your hair out?

The ref was 20 feet away looking straight at that. I watch this f***** crap every game. Are our management gutless? The answer is yes. They should be calling it out. This is four years now this is going on. YFKM
It was half of the same incompetent pair as the last game. One from Alberta and the other from Saskatchewan. Kerry Fraser wannabes

 

[Zybalto]

Are you sure these numbers are correct? Matthews is at 27.29% without Rielly or vice versa?

Oops, corrected and thanks for catching it.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Math was done before last nights game:

Top 3 Negative Hits Differential/Games Played followed by Penalty Minute differential/Games played:

1. Toronto: -8.556 (3.4 minutes less on the PP per game than their opponents)
2. Winnipeg: -6.286 (3 minutes more on the PP per game than their opponents)
3. Buffalo: -5.250 (3.7 minutes more on the PP per game than their opponents)

This is "by the numbers" and the numbers are saying its not just the eye test....The Leafs are getting screwed pretty hard so far this year.

Maybe last nights game finally didnt have a play that made you pull your hair out?

See the ref there looking right at it very end of the gif, well that guy should be fired. This is not the weather channel we ate watching here and you get paid to be right half the time. The guy blatantly stold a powerplay from us. The video evidence of this is happening already this season is numerous already

 

[Wafflewhipper]

We had one of the two refs from last game last night. These guys have stats that screw away teams. The other moron was busy in Vancouver screwing the jets i suppose. Today’s NHL Referees and Linesmen – 1/30/21

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Share of PP time this year:

Winnipeg: 64.53%
Calgary: 58.59%
Edmonton: 51.42%
Ottawa: 51.27%
Montreal: 46.5%
Vancouver: 46.33%
Toronto: 37.88%

Can you drop these Numbers in the thread i opened to track these discrepancies plz Zybalto. Would appreciate it bro. You’ll see the thread in red listed as injury report lol

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Math was done before last nights game:

Top 3 Negative Hits Differential/Games Played followed by Penalty Minute differential/Games played:

1. Toronto: -8.556 (3.4 minutes less on the PP per game than their opponents)
2. Winnipeg: -6.286 (3 minutes more on the PP per game than their opponents)
3. Buffalo: -5.250 (3.7 minutes more on the PP per game than their opponents)

This is "by the numbers" and the numbers are saying its not just the eye test....The Leafs are getting screwed pretty hard so far this year.

Maybe last nights game finally didnt have a play that made you pull your hair out?

This video would be awesome in the video proof thread we are getting jobbed i tried to link on this ipad and can’t

 

[Critical13]

Apparently we are now on par with the likes of LA, San Jose, and Anaheim, and just ahead of Ottawa and Vancouver xGA

 

[zeke]

Here's how each line combo has done so far via xgf%.

I'm looking at every combo that's played at least 5min together, though any combo that has only played under 10 minutes together is in italics to highlight the small sample.

I've bolded the combos that have performed well so far.


Line 1:

The first line combos have generally been very good, other than the ones that include vesey (not a big surprise) and Tavares (a bit more worrisome).

IMO i would go right back to Thornton up here when he's ready, and hopefully he can keep up all year.


Line 2:

The 2nd line combos have generally been poor. The only exceptions being the time Hyman played on that line (no surprise), and the time Kerfoot was the 2nd line C with matthews out. Again this is a worrisome trend for Tavares.

This combo with Mikheyev has pretty much been a disaster so far.

IMO we really should try Hyman here again and hope it keeps working. Imo it should as Hyman and willy really complement Tavares well. I'd give mikheyev a shot on matthews line to see if it works while waiting for Thornton to come back.


Line 3:

Funnily enough, the only 3rd line combo that hasnt done well is the original mikheyev-kerfoot-hyman line. That line was surprisingly worse than the current Vesey-Kerfoot-Simmonds line which isn't a great line on paper but is doing well so far. This might just indicate that Hyman really does work best as a complementary player on a scoring line rather than a line driver on a checking line.

I have my doubts that the current 3rd line will keep up this solid play but no reason to break it up for now, which means mikheyev can stay up in the top 6 for now.


Line 4:

I'm surprised by how bad the 4th lines have been. The only effective combo yet maybe isn't too surprising - I.e. it features both Engvall and Spezza, who the eye test has also pretty clearly agreed have been the 2 best players in this mix so far. So hopefully Engvall is a fixture going forward.


In general, even though the overall team numbers have been nowhere near good enough, there's some hopeful signs that the right combos may be able to get us closer to team dominance at some point.

Imo the most urgent thing for Keefe to do with the lines right now is a) try that Hyman-Tavares-Nylander 2nd line out again, and b) keep Engvall in the lineup. Something like this for now:

Mikheyev-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Vesey-Kerfoot-Simmonds
Xxxxxx-Engvall-Spezza

Then when Thornton/Robertson are healthy there's the option of bumping mikheyev back to the 3rd line or keeping him up there and just using thornton/Robertson to upgrade the bottom 6.

 

[zeke]

The defense combos are a much easier analysis because they've been so consistent and because the problem area is clear.

I would pretty much ignore the bottom "odd" combos there completely- those seem to be mostly odd shifts that come in situations where a PK expires and a combo is pinned in the zone still for a bit and things like that.

The top 4 combos there are the only ones that really matter, and its a simple analysis - rielly-brodie has been bad, muzzin-holl has been great, dermott-bogo has been good and clearly better than lehtonen-bogo as the bottom pair.

Personally i wouldn't change anything. The top pair should fix itself eventually, and the 2nd pair is too good to split up. The bottom pair choice also seems pretty clear right now, though I guess it wouldn't hurt to take a look at dermott and lehtonen together.

But overall that top pair is the biggest worry spot on the team so far - if they can't be much better then its going to be really hard for the team to dominate overall at any point. I'm pretty sure they'll figure it out but there's no guarantees there. For now I'd keep playing them as is and expect them to improve.

 

[Critical13]

Penalty Kill sitting at 76.9%, 21st in the league.

This is an area which will hopefully improve as we avoid penalties moving forward and out pairings get comfortable.

So far I like Holl and Brodie's work, along with Mik and Marner. Muzzin looks a bit panicked. Will improve, in my opinion, when we shave 1 or 2 penalties per game off.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Penalty Kill sitting at 76.9%, 21st in the league.

This is an area which will hopefully improve as we avoid penalties moving forward and out pairings get comfortable.

So far I like Holl and Brodie's work, along with Mik and Marner. Muzzin looks a bit panicked. Will improve, in my opinion, when we shave 1 or 2 penalties per game off.

On the other hand Toronto's power play is currently 1st in the league at 43.3%, although I do agree that their penalty kill should improve.

 

[Critical13]

On the other hand Toronto's power play is currently 1st in the league at 43.3%, although I do agree that their penalty kill should improve.

It looks sustainable, too (not the 40%, but being the cream of the crop). Tons of high danger chances every single PP, reminds me of the Alfie-Heater-Spezza PP back in the dark days.

 

[LeafsNation75]

It looks sustainable, too (not the 40%, but being the cream of the crop). Tons of high danger chances every single PP, reminds me of the Alfie-Heater-Spezza PP back in the dark days.

I'm not saying their power play percentage will remain over 40% or in 1st, however it would be nice if it did. So does it have a better chance if Keefe keeps the same two lines and doesn't load up with Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, and Rielly. Although I can see him doing that if the situation called for it like needing when they are down by 1 goal late in the 3rd period or getting a late chance in a tie game. Plus I'm sure once Thornton returns he will be on one of their two power play lines.

 

[Critical13]

Why Toronto's penalty complaints are legitimate, and symptoms of a league-wide problem • The Faceoff Circle

Some of you may find this article interesting. There are a few things I don’t like about it but it builds off of a similar article about game management from last season.

I think this kind of thing really affects teams that have a lot of scoring potential and play a possession game.

 

[ponder]

Here's how each line combo has done so far via xgf%.

I'm looking at every combo that's played at least 5min together, though any combo that has only played under 10 minutes together is in italics to highlight the small sample.

I've bolded the combos that have performed well so far.


Line 1:

View attachment 390910

The first line combos have generally been very good, other than the ones that include vesey (not a big surprise) and Tavares (a bit more worrisome).

IMO i would go right back to Thornton up here when he's ready, and hopefully he can keep up all year.


Line 2:

View attachment 390911

The 2nd line combos have generally been poor. The only exceptions being the time Hyman played on that line (no surprise), and the time Kerfoot was the 2nd line C with matthews out. Again this is a worrisome trend for Tavares.

This combo with Mikheyev has pretty much been a disaster so far.

IMO we really should try Hyman here again and hope it keeps working. Imo it should as Hyman and willy really complement Tavares well. I'd give mikheyev a shot on matthews line to see if it works while waiting for Thornton to come back.


Line 3:

View attachment 390913

Funnily enough, the only 3rd line combo that hasnt done well is the original mikheyev-kerfoot-hyman line. That line was surprisingly worse than the current Vesey-Kerfoot-Simmonds line which isn't a great line on paper but is doing well so far. This might just indicate that Hyman really does work best as a complementary player on a scoring line rather than a line driver on a checking line.

I have my doubts that the current 3rd line will keep up this solid play but no reason to break it up for now, which means mikheyev can stay up in the top 6 for now.


Line 4:

View attachment 390914

I'm surprised by how bad the 4th lines have been. The only effective combo yet maybe isn't too surprising - I.e. it features both Engvall and Spezza, who the eye test has also pretty clearly agreed have been the 2 best players in this mix so far. So hopefully Engvall is a fixture going forward.


In general, even though the overall team numbers have been nowhere near good enough, there's some hopeful signs that the right combos may be able to get us closer to team dominance at some point.

Imo the most urgent thing for Keefe to do with the lines right now is a) try that Hyman-Tavares-Nylander 2nd line out again, and b) keep Engvall in the lineup. Something like this for now:

Mikheyev-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Vesey-Kerfoot-Simmonds
Xxxxxx-Engvall-Spezza

Then when Thornton/Robertson are healthy there's the option of bumping mikheyev back to the 3rd line or keeping him up there and just using thornton/Robertson to upgrade the bottom 6.

Great post, agree with your current lines. I think Tavares/Nylander are more of a methodical, grinding/cycling pair, while Matthews/Marner have more of a "quick strike/dangerous in transition" element, and Hyman is a great fit for cycling, while Mikheyev is a bit more of a transition guy. Obviously Matthews is incredible on the cycle too, but overall I think those pairings would work better for now.

For the 4th line, agreed that Engvall and Spezza are a tier above the rest - been very impressed by Engvall, playing with a lot of energy/hustle, like he was in the first half of last season, not the 2nd half. He looks hungry. No real preference for the final winger, maybe Boyd a hair above Barabanov/Anderson/Brooks.

When 100% healthy I'd go:

Thornton - Matthews - Marner
Nylander - Tavares - Hyman
Vesey - Kerfoot - Mikheyev
Engvall - Spezza - Simmonds

Main concern would be the 3rd line - there's solid offensive talent there, but they're no longer a shutdown line, it leaves our top 2 lines often matching up against the top opposing line. I think that's probably OK though.

 

[Notsince67]

Why Toronto's penalty complaints are legitimate, and symptoms of a league-wide problem • The Faceoff Circle

Some of you may find this article interesting. There are a few things I don’t like about it but it builds off of a similar article about game management from last season.

I think this kind of thing really affects teams that have a lot of scoring potential and play a possession game.

I'm guessing that before 15 years is up, we have an ai automaton reffing games

 

[LeafsNation75]

Why Toronto's penalty complaints are legitimate, and symptoms of a league-wide problem • The Faceoff Circle

Some of you may find this article interesting. There are a few things I don’t like about it but it builds off of a similar article about game management from last season.

I think this kind of thing really affects teams that have a lot of scoring potential and play a possession game.

If Toronto wasn't leading 2-0 when Kerfoot got that penalty in the 2nd period which was a bad call and it lead to Hyman's penalty giving the Oilers a 5v3 and they scored because of that, would the first penalty on Kerfoot even get called?

 

[Twine Tickler]

Here's how each line combo has done so far via xgf%.

I'm looking at every combo that's played at least 5min together, though any combo that has only played under 10 minutes together is in italics to highlight the small sample.

I've bolded the combos that have performed well so far.


Line 1:

View attachment 390910

The first line combos have generally been very good, other than the ones that include vesey (not a big surprise) and Tavares (a bit more worrisome).

IMO i would go right back to Thornton up here when he's ready, and hopefully he can keep up all year.


Line 2:

View attachment 390911

The 2nd line combos have generally been poor. The only exceptions being the time Hyman played on that line (no surprise), and the time Kerfoot was the 2nd line C with matthews out. Again this is a worrisome trend for Tavares.

This combo with Mikheyev has pretty much been a disaster so far.

IMO we really should try Hyman here again and hope it keeps working. Imo it should as Hyman and willy really complement Tavares well. I'd give mikheyev a shot on matthews line to see if it works while waiting for Thornton to come back.


Line 3:

View attachment 390913

Funnily enough, the only 3rd line combo that hasnt done well is the original mikheyev-kerfoot-hyman line. That line was surprisingly worse than the current Vesey-Kerfoot-Simmonds line which isn't a great line on paper but is doing well so far. This might just indicate that Hyman really does work best as a complementary player on a scoring line rather than a line driver on a checking line.

I have my doubts that the current 3rd line will keep up this solid play but no reason to break it up for now, which means mikheyev can stay up in the top 6 for now.


Line 4:

View attachment 390914

I'm surprised by how bad the 4th lines have been. The only effective combo yet maybe isn't too surprising - I.e. it features both Engvall and Spezza, who the eye test has also pretty clearly agreed have been the 2 best players in this mix so far. So hopefully Engvall is a fixture going forward.


In general, even though the overall team numbers have been nowhere near good enough, there's some hopeful signs that the right combos may be able to get us closer to team dominance at some point.

Imo the most urgent thing for Keefe to do with the lines right now is a) try that Hyman-Tavares-Nylander 2nd line out again, and b) keep Engvall in the lineup. Something like this for now:

Mikheyev-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Vesey-Kerfoot-Simmonds
Xxxxxx-Engvall-Spezza

Then when Thornton/Robertson are healthy there's the option of bumping mikheyev back to the 3rd line or keeping him up there and just using thornton/Robertson to upgrade the bottom 6.

great analysis there. TBH I am a bit surprised by some of that data.

I think your current lineup is exactly what I would do as well.

When jumbo/robby come back id go with something like this:

Jumbo-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Willy
Vesey-Kerf-Simmonds
Robby-Boyd-Spezz

engvall

Honestly I know some people love Engvall, I just have not been impressed aside from 1 game. He looks disengaged to me, and panics with the puck on his tape. I know the data doesn't necessarily support that observation, but I just haven't liked his game this year in its entirety

 

[The Iceman]

wouldn't hate healthy scratching Vesey once in a while...very meh

 

[Twine Tickler]

wouldn't hate healthy scratching Vesey once in a while...very meh

ya I could get behind this. especially when Robby comes back. The data @zeke provided show a bit of chem with Kerfoot. Which should come as no shock, given their history. But I think his time in my top 6 would be done. Just didn't take advantage of the open ice he was given, almost looked like he got in JT and willy's way at times

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Here is a neat one:
Our top 10 players at 5vs5 even strength in ice time including 4 defensemen and 6 forwards are - 25 ratio for takeaways and giveaways. Ha just a curious stat

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Why Toronto's penalty complaints are legitimate, and symptoms of a league-wide problem • The Faceoff Circle

Some of you may find this article interesting. There are a few things I don’t like about it but it builds off of a similar article about game management from last season.

I think this kind of thing really affects teams that have a lot of scoring potential and play a possession game.

Gist of the article (with LOTS of stats/facts to back it up).

As pretty much everyone knows, game management is rampant. There is a strong inclination for refs to try and "balance" overall penalties, to give losing teams an opportunity to get back in it, etc.

Such game management is a big disadvantage for teams built on puck possession that also take very few penalties.

And the leafs are the perfect storm for getting the short end of the stick in this regards.

Long story short, the leafs possess the puck a lot, and also take very few penalties. This makes it very very hard for the refs to "game manage". In order to keep a balance of penalties (game management), they have to start letting the opposing team get away with murder while at the same time looking for the leafs to commit even the very slightest hint of a penalty. And all of a sudden Marner get's a "holding" penalty for his hand being near Darnell Nurse, while Nurse can literally get away with grabbing Mikhevev with both hands and pulling him to the ice.

Great article. Shows that what we're all seeing is in fact true, and that it's clearly not a grand conspiracy.

 

[willmma]

So how are the numbers now?