Leafs - Bruins forward match-up RAPM xG

[Sperss1997]

Zeke made a thread about Leafs blueliners are good enough, but Toronto is one of the bottom teams when it comes to expected goals against. If Zeke is right, logically the forward group has to be bad defensively. I looked at the leafs forward group RAPM xG stats and compared them to our first round oppenent in the playoffs.

It turned out that Zeke might be right!
At least defense doesn't get any help from offense.

Leafs forward group is way better than Bostons offensively. When it comes to defense though, Leafs forward group is getting crushed by a huge margin.

I have enclosed an explanation on RAPM (thumbnail)

(sorry for being lazy, not listing the xGF60 numbers. Data from before last nights game vs Oilers. )

Click to read more...

 

[Leafblooded]

I am reminded of Christmas, but what does it all mean?

 

[Sperss1997]

I am reminded of Christmas, but what does it all mean?

RAPM measures a players impact, compared to league average independant on strength of teammates and opponents.

 

[Sperss1997]

I am reminded of Christmas, but what does it all mean?

In other words
Leafs forward group (the one I chose) contributes with +0.685 expected goals per 60 minutes at even strength compared to league average. Unfortunately they let in too many exp. goals 0.217 more than league average, so their net contribution is 0.468 better than league average, which is pretty good. Boston however, has a better expected contribution by their forward group (the one that i chose) with whopping 1.127 goals more than league average. They are worse offensively but much better defensively, as almost all forwards are good in their own end.

Bruins are just a heck of a team and will be favorites versus Leafs in the playoffs if you ask me. Division is brutal with Tamba on top.

All of this is even strength. Special teams not included

 

[Nithoniniel]

I'm really not a big fan of RAPM. Like, not at all. I'm skeptical to most single-number metrics at this point, but most of them you can kind of understand the logic behind the results.

RAPM's expected goal differential per hour has our 15th to 17th best players as the following: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner. This team has apparently been led this season by the combined might of Jake Gardiner and Zach Hyman. It's too bad we gave up our fourth best player in Josh Leivo for nothing.

I mean, in any kind of model you will get results that are clear outliers where there's something missing. But when the results are this ridiculous, it's better to just throw it out.

 

[WilliamNylander]

The difference can be explained with coaching and systems play.

 

[Nineteen67]

Does this mean Marchand contributes the least to us team in terms of RAPM? I get why Matthews contributes the least to the Leafs ( he’s a -2) but Marchand?

 

[Mickey Marner]

Just so everyone is clear, RAPM is a basketball statistic. Evolving-hockey is just trying to piggyback off of the clout of the RAPM name, like other pseudo-statisticians have done with WAR.