Post-Game Talk: Leafs beat the Bruins and the Refs

[The Podium]

You're clearly not listening to what I'm saying.... for the fourth time... it makes NO SENSE to compare Pastrnak's 18 and 19 YO seasons to Nylanders 20 and 21 YO seasons....

Pastrnak signed his deal after his D+3 season, which was the year he first played on a line with Marchand and Bergeron. He had 70 points in 75 games after 2 prorated mid 40 point seasons. He was 21 years old when he signed.

Nylander signed his deal after his D+4 seasons, he played 2 seasons with Matthews and had 61 points in 82 games and before that a short stint with the team at the end of a tanked season. He was 22 years old when he signed.

What exactly are you talking about?

 

[Nithoniniel]

I'm not sure why we are rehashing the Nylander contract comparable discussions again? We spent a year on that already. It's time to move on.

 

[Critical13]

It’s crazy to watch the difference between Bergeron line and Matthews line.

Bergeron line absolutely dogged in their pursuit of the puck on both ends of the rink.

Matthews line standing around following the puck looking like Timbits players in their own zone. No puck pursuit, no pressure, so many players left wide open.

Not sure if that’s system or player work ethic but it’s night and day when you compare it to a defensively sound line.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Huh?

You compare the players AT THE TIME of the contract.

At the time of the contracts. They had very similar
Stats. That would lead them to have similar contracts. They both had very similar numbers to other players. Who ALL got between 8.25-9.25% AAV.

Again. Like I said. Look at quality of teammates. Pasta was a 45-50pt player until he got on the best line in the league.

Coincidence?

Nylander spent the first 20 games of his career playing on a tanking team. He spent about 50 games on the 3-4th line too.

He got PP2. Time. He had back to back 60 pt seasons.

Pasta is absolutely making the most of his time. But to look at numbers post contract and think they have any weight in other players
contract negotiations is nuts.

Unless you think that it makes sense to compare every superstar who has had a slow start in contract negotiations.

“Thornton got like 8 pts in his rookie year..... look at him at 25”. Pay me like a hall of famer.

It works both ways.

I think it is a little disingenuous to say they had very similar stats. There is certaintly an extra weighting applied to the most recent year and Pasta paced for 37 goals and 77 points vs Nylander's 20 goals and 61 points. Getting close to double the goals...That isn't even going into the fact Nylander was a few years older and only bought 1 UFA year vs 2 for Pasta.

However one shouldnt discount the fact Nylander was more consistent even though Pasta didnt get any PP time before his final year and never had a full season until then largely due to injury

It is hard to say, Pasta likely took a discount so he isnt the best example as Nylander was clearly overpaid in comparison to Pasta.

Nylander's best comparable is likely Ehlers due to age, production etc. Ehlers didnt get good PP opportunities until his final year but posted pretty similar ES numbers to Nylander in both their 2nd last ELC season. Final year was similar with edge going to Nylander if I recall in very good ES production but poorer PP production.

Ehlers gave up 3 UFA years while Nylander gave up 1, however Nylander has the versatility of being able to play center so that bumps up his ask a bit too. He also did have better production than Ehlers so that would increase his value too. All in all I would say he was right in the ballpark (on the high end) to slightly overpaid if you ignore Pasta.

 

[PromisedLand]

It’s crazy to watch the difference between Bergeron line and Matthews line.

Bergeron line absolutely dogged in their pursuit of the puck on both ends of the rink.

Matthews line standing around following the puck looking like Timbits players in their own zone. No puck pursuit, no pressure, so many players left wide open.

Not sure if that’s system of player work ethic but it’s night and day when you compare it to a defensively sound line.

If you are talking about the time Matthews line got scored on that play was weird.

I forgot who’s the D was but he tried to flick the puck to clear the zone he didn’t get much elevation, Matthews gloves it down but Bergeron was right there and passed it to Pastrnak for a one timer.

It’s not like Matthews did not play that well

 

[MLSE]

I brought him up in like poll #15, saying how he's gotten underrated and to not forget about him. He was one of the better Marlies in the 2nd half last year.

Same thing, the answers ended up being about his skating..

"I like Timashov.

Has been in the AHL since he was 19, put up 50 points last season as a 22 year old.

2nd on the team in playoff scoring.

Hard to believe he had 0 votes, am I missing something here?"

 

[hector morrison]

Maybe explain game 7 last season.

Bruins powerplay was killing the leafs in first six games.

In game 7 the refs called the leafs for ....count'em. ZERO penalties.

Only game in al four rounds of last years play offs where a team was not given a single powerplay.

Yea, the refs love them Bruins.

You sure about that? I think yer arse is sucking wind! Maybe go check that stat sheet ! I don't recall accurately but I'm reasonably sure it wasn't that bad!.

Besides,the effect of penalties are much more than just 'how many'...the timing of them is critical as well. If it provides a team with an early lead ,they can play differently,sometimes that means safer,low risk hockey.

As fans ,we will have our bias but we're not blind. More to my point , I take it you don't watch Chara (always thought he was great ,but gets away with all manner of shyte)...it really is astounding. He cheats ,because he can't turn around well...yet rarely gets called. If you watched last nite...the Kerfoot chip in was a perfect example of what Chara gets away with...brutal reffing.

 

[The Podium]

I think it is a little disingenuous to say they had very similar stats. There is certaintly an extra weighting applied to the most recent year and Pasta paced for 37 goals and 77 points vs Nylander's 20 goals and 61 points. Getting close to double the goals...That isn't even going into the fact Nylander was a few years older and only bought 1 UFA year vs 2 for Pasta.

However one shouldnt discount the fact Nylander was more consistent even though Pasta didnt get any PP time before his final year and never had a full season until then largely due to injury

It is hard to say if Pasta took a discount so he isnt the best example as Nylander was clearly overpaid in comparison to Pasta.

Nylander's best comparable is likely Ehlers due to age, production etc. Ehlers didnt get good PP opportunities until his final year but posted pretty similar ES numbers to Nylander in both their 2nd last ELC season. Final year was similar with edge going to Nylander if I recall in very good ES production but poorer PP production.

Ehlers gave up 3 UFA years while Nylander gave up 1, however Nylander has the versatility of being able to play center so that bumps up his ask a bit too. He also did have better production than Ehlers so that would increase his value too. All in all I would say he was right in the ballpark (on the high end) to slightly overpaid if you ignore Pasta.

Nylander was exactly 1 year older and had 2 years of top 6 quality production vs. Pastrnak's 1

 

[Nithoniniel]

It’s crazy to watch the difference between Bergeron line and Matthews line.

Bergeron line absolutely dogged in their pursuit of the puck on both ends of the rink.

Matthews line standing around following the puck looking like Timbits players in their own zone. No puck pursuit, no pressure, so many players left wide open.

Not sure if that’s system or player work ethic but it’s night and day when you compare it to a defensively sound line.

The Bergeron line is the best line in hockey for a reason. Three terrific players in perfect sync with each other, with Bergeron as the best two-way player in the league and a ridiculously good example for his line to follow. Marchand is quite frankly overrated defensively, but he is up there with Bergeron in his consistency of effort and attention to detail. And Pastrnak is getting better each year.

We should remember that it was just 4 games ago that the Matthews line was lauded for being terrific at even strength, with Nylander getting praised for his forechecking and how he kept his feet moving, and Matthews looking downright dominant at times. Both of them really struggle with consistency in parts of their game, Willy in particular.

 

[Legion34]

I think it is a little disingenuous to say they had very similar stats. There is certaintly an extra weighting applied to the most recent year and Pasta paced for 37 goals and 77 points vs Nylander's 20 goals and 61 points. Getting close to double the goals...That isn't even going into the fact Nylander was a few years older and only bought 1 UFA year vs 2 for Pasta.

However one shouldnt discount the fact Nylander was more consistent even though Pasta didnt get any PP time before his final year and never had a full season until then largely due to injury

It is hard to say if Pasta took a discount so he isnt the best example as Nylander was clearly overpaid in comparison to Pasta.

Nylander's best comparable is likely Ehlers due to age, production etc. Ehlers didnt get good PP opportunities until his final year but posted pretty similar ES numbers to Nylander in both their 2nd last ELC season. Final year was similar with edge going to Nylander if I recall in very good ES production but poorer PP production.

Ehlers gave up 3 UFA years while Nylander gave up 1, however Nylander has the versatility of being able to play center so that bumps up his ask a bit too. He also did have better production than Ehlers so that would increase his value too. All in all I would say he was right in the ballpark (on the high end) to slightly overpaid if you ignore Pasta.

Ehlers singed with 1 year of good production. Not 2

 

[Gallagbi]

It’s crazy to watch the difference between Bergeron line and Matthews line.

Bergeron line absolutely dogged in their pursuit of the puck on both ends of the rink.

Matthews line standing around following the puck looking like Timbits players in their own zone. No puck pursuit, no pressure, so many players left wide open.

Not sure if that’s system or player work ethic but it’s night and day when you compare it to a defensively sound line.

We play scared, they play confident. It's one of the biggest issues on this team IMO, we look terrified to be out of position and that causes the team to stop skating and watch.

For all the questions Babs gets, this is the one that concerns me most. We have a talented team with a high skill level. They should be comfortable taking risks and confident with the puck, not scared to make a mistake.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Ehlers singed with 1 year of good production. Not 2

Like I said, his 2nd last year and Nylander's 2nd last year were very similar at ES. Ehlers just didnt get good PP opportunities.

Once Ehlers got good PP opportunities he put up a similar season although Nylander's Pp dropped a lot in his final year with his ES numbers increasing. Ehlers and Nylander are each others best comparable all things in.

Trying to compare to a guy who paced for nearly doubled the goals of the other guy just doesnt make sense. Goals are a huge premium in this league as we have been told many times.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Like I said, his 2nd last year and Nylander's 2nd last year were very similar at ES. Ehlers just didnt get good PP opportunities.

Once Ehlers got good PP opportunities he put up a similar season although Nylander's Pp dropped a lot in his final year with his ES numbers increasing. Ehlers and Nylander are each others best comparable all things in.

Trying to compare to a guy who paced for nearly doubled the goals of the other guy just doesnt make sense. Goals are a huge premium in this league as we have been told many times.

None of the better contract prediction models had Ehlers as Nylander's best comparable. Furthermore, Ehlers has the best contract out of any player in the range by a significant margin. If Nylander came close to that contract, it would have been great (at the time).

Instead, Cane had him at 6x7, pretty much exactly what he got. EvolvingWild had him at 6x6.8 if I remember correctly, slightly less. The Athletic's prediction had him at 6x7.1 based on his ten closest comparables. It was an average contract when it was signed.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Nylander was exactly 1 year older and had 2 years of top 6 quality production vs. Pastrnak's 1

Pasta was injuried for much of the first 2 years while receiving literally no PP opportunities. I'm so sick of people saying how important context is when looking at contracts then turning a blind eye to it when it justifies their beliefs.

As soon as Pasta was given a top 6 opportunity with PP time and wasn't dogged by injuries he put up a 37 goal and 77 point pace.

I also think it I'd disengieous to call both top 6 production. Nylander's is lower end 1st line production while Pasta's was borderline star 1st liner production. Goals are a premium and Pasta nearly doubled Nylander's.

It is okay to say that Nylander was paid on the high side of his comparables and it is okay to admit it. Doesnt make him any worse a player and he will be the best value contract on the leafs as soon as Rielly gets his extension

 

[ToneDog]

None of the better contract prediction models had Ehlers as Nylander's best comparable. Furthermore, Ehlers has the best contract out of any player in the range by a significant margin. If Nylander came close to that contract, it would have been great (at the time).

Instead, Cane had him at 6x7, pretty much exactly what he got. EvolvingWild had him at 6x6.8 if I remember correctly, slightly less. The Athletic's prediction had him at 6x7.1 based on his ten closest comparables. It was an average contract when it was signed.

As you said, it is time to stop discussing contracts. Nylander's actually looks good compared to Matty's and Marners and I was upset when Dubas made Willie whole after his holdout. What counts now is what they do on the ice and in the playoffs.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I'm not sure why we are rehashing the Nylander contract comparable discussions again? We spent a year on that already. It's time to move on.

THIS. KEEP THE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE GAME PLEASE.

 

[On-the-Fly]

Babcock will likely never trust him. It's well documented for about as long as he's coached in the league that he doesn't easily change opinions on players in this regard.

So there is hope yet. Only thing is that Willy needs to commit to a 200 foot game which I know he is well capable of but he needs to make a decision to play that game.

I think with time he might realize that if he plays well defensively that means he has the puck more which means higher probability of putting up points

These things combined make for an intriguing storyline.

With JT and Hyman back in the lineup the weight of its conclusion should be dramatically lessened. It may, though, affect another intriguing storyline, which is Matthews' icetime.

 

[X66]

Couple things.

First, Matthews is an amazing player but he’ll never reach his true potential if he doesn’t use his size to make it hard on his opponents. I’m not saying he has to go around running everyone, but he’s way stronger, way more athletic and way more skilled than Bergeron, he should make that match up hell for him physically, but he doesn’t.

Second, good win without a lot of regulars out of the line up, Tavares, Hyman, Johnsson(most of the game) and Dermott are all huge parts of this team.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

None of the better contract prediction models had Ehlers as Nylander's best comparable. Furthermore, Ehlers has the best contract out of any player in the range by a significant margin. If Nylander came close to that contract, it would have been great (at the time).

Instead, Cane had him at 6x7, pretty much exactly what he got. EvolvingWild had him at 6x6.8 if I remember correctly, slightly less. The Athletic's prediction had him at 6x7.1 based on his ten closest comparables. It was an average contract when it was signed.

From what I can see some of those models seem to over predict on the mid tier RFAs and underestimate on the high tier RFAs.

Who did they have as the best comparable statistically (not comparing their contracts their actual production)? Curious

I agree, he was right in the ball park on the higher end likely due to his versatility.

Edit: I agree with your earlier post of not turning this into a Nylander debate so I will try not to comment further

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

If you are talking about the time Matthews line got scored on that play was weird.

I forgot who’s the D was but he tried to flick the puck to clear the zone he didn’t get much elevation, Matthews gloves it down but Bergeron was right there and passed it to Pastrnak for a one timer.

It’s not like Matthews did not play that well

Huh? Matthews dropped the puck and chopped at it at the same time Bergeron did, but then just gave up and let Marchand skate away with it. Rielly was slow to react to Marchand and Marner was just standing around watching the puck instead of covering the wide-open Pastrnak.

If those three hadn't combined for the OT goal they'd be getting a lot more flak, especially since Matthews was ineffective most of the rest of the game.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

It is nothing short of laughable that multiple people on the Bruins board are calling it a well reffed gamd

Honestly I think they're so used to that kind of reffing advantage they can't even see how biased it is. Those posters are right about one thing though: at least 2 of our penalties were because we were completely hemmed in for long stretches. It's the non-calls against the Bruins that drive me nuts.

 

[Nineteen67]

Huh? Surprised about what?



Huh? Who is "y'all"? I didn't say that. And what does that have to do with what we are talking about?

Are you still drunk from last night?

Informally, 90% of Leafs fans (I imagine the Southern Ontario based fans) said they don’t watch hockey other than than Leafs games. And boy does it show.

No drinking yesterday as I was cleaning up the mess Nestor left

 

[IPS]

Mikheyev, Moore, Timo....suddenly this team has some skill guys with sandpaper in their games. Might be exciting times, we’ve mostly focused on “other” things so far, but the emergence of this real quality depth is an amazing plus this year.

Throw in Korshkov and Hyman coming back and that's a fair bit of grit throughout the lineup.

 

[Ifittex il Verita]

It’s crazy to watch the difference between Bergeron line and Matthews line.

Bergeron line absolutely dogged in their pursuit of the puck on both ends of the rink.

Matthews line standing around following the puck looking like Timbits players in their own zone. No puck pursuit, no pressure, so many players left wide open.

Not sure if that’s system or player work ethic but it’s night and day when you compare it to a defensively sound line.

I must have said this exact same thing 1000x. And I used that same comparison too.
What we need more than ever is for our top-6 to replicate the workmanship that our boys Timashov, Moore, and Mik are putting out on a normal basis.
The way Matthews has been avoiding contact the last few games has been embarassing, I really want someone on the team to call him out for it.

 

[CanadasTeam]

It’s crazy to watch the difference between Bergeron line and Matthews line.

Bergeron line absolutely dogged in their pursuit of the puck on both ends of the rink.

Matthews line standing around following the puck looking like Timbits players in their own zone. No puck pursuit, no pressure, so many players left wide open.

Not sure if that’s system or player work ethic but it’s night and day when you compare it to a defensively sound line.

This is because Matthews line self-brainwashed themselves in the sense that they only need to play smarter, not necessarily harder in any game situation (which kinda sucks).