Prospect Info: Leafs' 2019 3rd-round (#84) -- D Mikko Kokkonen -- Liiga Finland 5' 11" /200 lbs

[Warden of the North]

Guy who made Corsica is a random dude? :/

He's also posted updated NHLe comparison charts yearly.

Uh yes?

Hes an unverified twitter account describing himself as a male model from Quebec with relatively few followers. Pardon me for not knowing who he is.

And again, have his past models proven correct?

Just because you have a model doesnt mean its any good

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I'm not vouching for him or anything but he's well known and liked among the analytics community. He makes projections models and all that stuff.

EDIT: Here's his top 62 pre-draft projection

Not saying anything either way, but that projection also has Alex Beaucage as #11 overall.

 

[SprDaVE]

Not saying anything either way, but that projection also has Alex Beaucage as #11 overall.

Yes. It's just pure analytical rankings of players. It provides additional information to go with the scouting eye. It's not meant to completely suggest Beaucage will be better than someone like Turcotte, but there's likely a lot of value of drafting someone like Beaucage where the Avs did.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Yes. It's just pure analytical rankings of players. It provides additional information to go with the scouting eye. It's not meant to completely suggest Beaucage will be better than someone like Turcotte, but there's likely a lot of value of drafting someone like Beaucage where the Avs did.

Oh I 100% agree. Would be interesting to read his past projections. Are they readily available? Or is this a 1st year list?

 

[SprDaVE]

Oh I 100% agree. Would be interesting to read his past projections. Are they readily available? Or is this a 1st year list?

I have no idea, to be honest. I think he wiped his account awhile back? Not totally sure. I just see his work retweeted once in awhile.

I wouldn't hold his projection/opinion to levels of being gospel or anything. It's more interesting than anything.

 

[Morgs]

How has his past draft projections turned out? Thats really what matters

I think this is the 2nd year he's actually focused on the draft. And when he did, he basically blew every other analytic model out the water.

Need more time/sample size to know if his rankings are good/worth reading yet, but as an analytic/production guy, I enjoyed looking at it.

 

[Warden of the North]

I have no idea, to be honest. I think he wiped his account awhile back? Not totally sure. I just see his work retweeted once in awhile.

I wouldn't hold his projection/opinion to levels of being gospel or anything. It's more interesting than anything.

Wiping his account of past projections really doesnt give the appearance that theyre any good.

I dont mean to pick on the guy, but peoe are posting his tweets like theyre supposed to mean anything more then mine or your opinions.

 

[Morgs]

Wiping his account of past projections really doesnt give the appearance that theyre any good.

I dont mean to pick on the guy, but peoe are posting his tweets like theyre supposed to mean anything more then mine or your opinions.

He posts inappropriate shit, so he deleted everything to get a new start as it seemed he was focusing on getting a job in hockey. Posted only hockey analysis & betting information.

He got bored of it, so he went back to a lot of innapropriate shit coupled with arguably the 1st/2nd best analytic analysis/website in hockey. No offense to moneypuck and more but EvolvingWild & Corsica >

 

[ijuka]

Wiping his account of past projections really doesnt give the appearance that theyre any good.

I dont mean to pick on the guy, but peoe are posting his tweets like theyre supposed to mean anything more then mine or your opinions.

He's one of the most respected analytics guys in the business. I'd trust his opinion over the average NHL GM.

 

[SprDaVE]

Wiping his account of past projections really doesnt give the appearance that theyre any good.

I dont mean to pick on the guy, but peoe are posting his tweets like theyre supposed to mean anything more then mine or your opinions.

It was for other reasons I think but I don't him all that much and don't care enough.

I agree overall though. Just wanted to give some form of context to what he does and who he is.

It should be taken with a grain of salt and really not much more than that.

 

[Faltorvo]

TBH, we have a lot of RD prospects right now. I don't know why people were so concerned about adding more over LD. Our RD is probably better than our LD in our pool right now.

LD: Sandin, Greenway, Kral, O'Connell, Kivihalme, Rosen, Borgman, Koster
RD: Liljegren, Duszak, Hollowell, Lindgren, Rasanen, Kokkonen, Loponen

well i think it comes down to this

we have our #1 lhsD in MR and our #1 prospect is also a lhsD and we have Dermott/rosen

can we say for sure we have a top pair rhsD? littlegrin can turn into top4 but a #2?? ,lets say he does become a top 2,,fine,,do we have another safe top 4 call on the right side???

 

[hockeynorth]

well i think it comes down to this

we have our #1 lhsD in MR and our #1 prospect is also a lhsD and we have Dermott/rosen

can we say for sure we have a top pair rhsD? littlegrin can turn into top4 but a #2?? ,lets say he does become a top 2,,fine,,do we have another safe top 4 call on the right side???

Our RHD depth is way better then our left right now for prospects. Also I think Lindgren becomes a player

 

[Faltorvo]

Our RHD depth is way better then our left right now for prospects. Also I think Lindgren becomes a player

our rhd is not remotely close to our lhd long term depth

MR (just 25) remember
derm
Sandin
rosen
borg

all could play nhl minutes ,,,

we have only 1 rhsd 25 and under that could play right now or next year. Littlegrin.

 

[Morgs]

Our RHD depth is way better then our left right now for prospects. Also I think Lindgren becomes a player

Yeah, honestly defense as a whole is an organizational strength at this point. Rielly and Muzzin are top-pairing guys. Dermott is top-4. Rosen, Liljegren, and Sandin could all be bottom-pairing guys tomorrow.

We also have Lindgren, Hollowell, Kivihalme, and Kokkonen with legit NHL potential.

 

[Hockeyisl1fe]

17 years old as a full time player in the Liiga. Tied for most points by a defenseman for his team. I'm saying it in full homer glory: how was this guy still available in the 3rd round?

Jukurit is the worst team in the FEL. You could say his totals are impressive because of it, but on the other hand he wouldn't have got nearly as big of a role offensively in better teams. I doubt he would've even been a regular for top tier teams (yes, the gap is that big). Also about his skating; it has improved to an acceptable level and it's decent enough in the FEL, but it's still a pretty big concern in regards for his possible NHL career (especially since he is under 6ft tall). That's pretty much how he was still available, not saying he wasn't a solid pick though.

 

[67Cup]

but he's playing against men?

Sorry, I probably wasn’t clear enough. The Black Book was not just speaking about this year but about several years worth of competition, including times when he played against prospects his own age. They speculated he may have been dominant because he matured earlier than that competition. Once again, I am only reporting the viewpoint, not endorsing it. The main thing I was saying was actually about the likelihood he will continue to grow. If they are right that he did indeed mature early, he may not grow much more.

 

[Orfieus]

The kid is a friggin tree stump, I wonder if Toronto is going to try to get him to lose some weight and be a lean 190lbs? I think the kid is going to dominate physically on NA ice

With how bad his team is do you think Toronto will try to get him over to NA hockey ASAP?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The kid is a friggin tree stump, I wonder if Toronto is going to try to get him to lose some weight and be a lean 190lbs? I think the kid is going to dominate physically on NA ice

With how bad his team is do you think Toronto will try to get him over to NA hockey ASAP?

Why would they want him to lose weight, unless it was bad weight? I doubt it's bad weight. He's already pro-sized. If anything, they want guys like Kalle Loponen, who are 5'11", 190, to fill out more like Kokkonen has.

Just because you are not over 6'0" doesn't suddenly mean you need to be some light puck mover. He can be a 5'11" (or likely 6'0"/6'1" when he's done growing), 200+ lbs defenseman who can still move the puck but also be a physical force.

 

[Orfieus]

Why would they want him to lose weight, unless it was bad weight? I doubt it's bad weight. He's already pro-sized. If anything, they want guys like Kalle Loponen, who are 5'11", 190, to fill out more like Kokkonen has.

Just because you are not over 6'0" doesn't suddenly mean you need to be some light puck mover. He can be a 5'11" (or likely 6'0"/6'1" when he's done growing), 200+ lbs defenseman who can still move the puck but also be a physical force.

I was thinking of his skating TBH, losing any bad weight he has will definitely improve his skating. I honestly don't care about height, I'm all about the weight

 

[taurine330]

The kid is a friggin tree stump, I wonder if Toronto is going to try to get him to lose some weight and be a lean 190lbs? I think the kid is going to dominate physically on NA ice

With how bad his team is do you think Toronto will try to get him over to NA hockey ASAP?

Would be great to have him in Marlies. Even for part time duties. But just to train at the Leafs facilities and with the Marlies.

 

[Morgs]

The more I read and watch on Kokkonen, the more I feel like team's just believed he "stagnated" after being so far ahead of the rest of the class 2 years ago. Feels like a Chychrun/Liljegren situation, but to an even higher degree as he dropped 2 full rounds.

Like ffs, he scored the most points ever (in Liiga) as an U-18 defenseman on one of the worst teams in the league, where he was 5th in ice-time for defenseman. Nowhere do I see "probem with: defense, skating, offense, attitude", all I see is "are his tools already maxed out?" (which is silly for people to say about a 17 year old) or I see "he doesn't excel at one particular thing". Like okay, just because someone is good at everything is that a problem?

Idk man, seems like a fantastic, possibly steal of a pick to me in the 3rd. I'd love to see what he can do in NA next season on a non-bottom feeder team, but If Jukurit plans to play and develop him I'm happy to keep him in Liiga. He's got 4 years before we're forced into a decision - hopefully he's in NA sooner than later.

 

[Randy Randerson]

The more I read and watch on Kokkonen, the more I feel like team's just believed he "stagnated" after being so far ahead of the rest of the class 2 years ago. Feels like a Chychrun/Liljegren situation, but to an even higher degree as he dropped 2 full rounds.

Like ffs, he scored the most points ever (in Liiga) as an U-18 defenseman on one of the worst teams in the league, where he was 5th in ice-time for defenseman. Nowhere do I see "probem with: defense, skating, offense, attitude", all I see is "are his tools already maxed out?" (which is silly for people to say about a 17 year old) or I see "he doesn't excel at one particular thing". Like okay, just because someone is good at everything is that a problem.

Idk man, seems like a fantastic, possibly steal of a pick to me in the 3rd. I'd love to see what he can do in NA next season on a non-bottom feeder team, but If Jukurit plans to play and develop him I'm happy to keep him in Liiga. He's got 4 years before we're forced into a decision - hopefully he's in NA sooner than later.

I've seen lots of skating concerns but also lots of belief that they can improve. Seems like some of it is "he's shorter and heavy, so we don't know how much faster he can get, and he doesn't appear to have a massive offensive ceiling". But ya, there was lots of talk of him as a potential 1oa in his prospect thread in 2016/17, so feels like he fell way further than he should have

you'd also think that if he's already close to his ceiling, that would mean he'll be ready sooner as well

 

[Morgs]

I've seen lots of skating concerns but also lots of belief that they can improve. Seems like some of it is "he's shorter and heavy, so we don't know how much faster he can get, and he doesn't appear to have a massive offensive ceiling". But ya, there was lots of talk of him as a potential 1oa in his prospect thread in 2016/17, so feels like he fell way further than he should have

you'd also think that if he's already close to his ceiling, that would mean he'll be ready sooner as well

I've seen skating concerns too, but they don't seem like they're legit concerns or like it's an actual problem. It's like "yeah his skating is fine/good enough, but like he's not an elite skater so can he make it?" It reminds me of Chychrun and how people have been watching him so long that they're trying their best to nitpick something that isn't actually a legit concern. Even the offensive concerns are silly imo. Points are mostly a horrible way to grade players (especially defenseman), but we're talking about the guy who on a poor team, 5th in TOI for defenseman scored the most points ever as a U18 in Liiga.

Here is how he matches up to the other Liiga defenseman that were drafted in the first/second/third round since 2017 (all brackets are ranking by team, TOI is only defenseman)(also left out Anttoni Honka because he played for two teams and got lazy):

Kokkonen (84th OA, 2019):
Team Record: 21-27-12
TOI: 17:25 (6th)
PPG: 0.339
CF%: 42.6% (18th)
Offensive Zone Starts %: 40.2% (24th)

Heiskanen (3rd OA, 2017) -
Team Record: 30-25-5
TOI: 18:59 (5th)
PPG: 0.27
CF%: 52.9% (3rd)
OZS%: 51.5% (8th)

Urho Vaakanainen (18th OA, 2017)
Team Record: 37-14-9
TOI: 14:57 (5th)
PPG: 0.146
CF%: 56.3% (T-1st)
OZS%: 57.7% (1st)

Robin Salo [late birthday] (46th OA, 2017):
Team Record: 21-28-11
TOI: 20:23 (2nd)
PPG: 0.296
CF%: 51.9% (8th)
OZS%: 49% (11th)

Ville Heinola (20th OA, 2019)
Team Record: 31-21-8
TOI: 18:54 (3rd)
PPG: 0.412
CF%: 50.8% (14th)
OZS%: 51.3% (18th)

Looks to me like he was trusted by far the most by his coach in the defensive zone, giving him some of the hardest starts on his team (plus by far harder than any other draft eligible defenseman out of Liiga)(plus plus the 3rd hardest starts for any defenseman in the league that played 10 or more games this sesason). Although he may have struggled in those minutes with the very bad looking CF%, he played for arguably the worst team (only rivaled by Salo), and we know that the DZS have a large effect on the CF%. Not only that, he only played more minutes/game than Vaakanainen, and came away with the 2nd best PPG. Obviously this isn't enough information to make any real decisions on, but he compares relatively well to all of these defenseman and I don't know if he really should have been close to a 3rd round pick.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I've seen skating concerns too, but they don't seem like they're legit concerns or like it's an actual problem. It's like "yeah his skating is fine/good enough, but like he's not an elite skater so can he make it?" It reminds me of Chychrun and how people have been watching him so long that they're trying their best to nitpick something that isn't actually a legit concern. Even the offensive concerns are silly imo. Points are mostly a horrible way to grade players (especially defenseman), but we're talking about the guy who on a poor team, 5th in TOI for defenseman scored the most points ever as a U18 in Liiga.

Here is how he matches up to the other Liiga defenseman that were drafted in the first/second/third round since 2017 (all brackets are ranking by team, TOI is only defenseman)(also left out Anttoni Honka because he played for two teams and got lazy):

Kokkonen (84th OA, 2019):
Team Record: 21-27-12
TOI: 17:25 (6th)
PPG: 0.339
CF%: 42.6% (18th)
Offensive Zone Starts %: 40.2% (24th)

Heiskanen (3rd OA, 2017) -
Team Record: 30-25-5
TOI: 18:59 (5th)
PPG: 0.27
CF%: 52.9% (3rd)
OZS%: 51.5% (8th)

Urho Vaakanainen (18th OA, 2017)
Team Record: 37-14-9
TOI: 14:57 (5th)
PPG: 0.146
CF%: 56.3% (T-1st)
OZS%: 57.7% (1st)

Robin Salo [late birthday] (46th OA, 2017):
Team Record: 21-28-11
TOI: 20:23 (2nd)
PPG: 0.296
CF%: 51.9% (8th)
OZS%: 49% (11th)

Ville Heinola (20th OA, 2019)
Team Record: 31-21-8
TOI: 18:54 (3rd)
PPG: 0.412
CF%: 50.8% (14th)
OZS%: 51.3% (18th)

Looks to me like he was trusted by far the most by his coach in the defensive zone, giving him some of the hardest starts on his team (plus by far harder than any other draft eligible defenseman out of Liiga). Although he may have struggled in those minutes with the very bad looking CF%, he played for arguably the worst team (only rivaled by Salo), and we know that the DZS have a large effect on the CF%. Not only that, he only played more minutes/game than Vaakanainen, and came away with the 2nd best PPG. Obviously this isn't enough information to make any real decisions on, but he compares relatively well to all of these defenseman.

It's interesting that his possession was so bad, but I'm guessing that usage has a lot more effect on that in large-ice leagues, getting the puck back in your own and clogging lanes is a lot harder in space. I wonder if that's one of the reasons he fell, and if the Leafs have some metrics that explain the concern away. I've heard that his team was also pretty awful which would be a contributing factor I guess.

But it definitely shows how much his coaching staff trusted him, is there any QoC stats available for Liiga?

 

[Morgs]

It's interesting that his possession was so bad, but I'm guessing that usage has a lot more effect on that in large-ice leagues, getting the puck back in your own and clogging lanes is a lot harder in space. I wonder if that's one of the reasons he fell, and if the Leafs have some metrics that explain the concern away. I've heard that his team was also pretty awful which would be a contributing factor I guess.

But it definitely shows how much his coaching staff trusted him, is there any QoC stats available for Liiga?

I haven't seen any QoC stats, but here is where I got all the stats: Player stats | Advanced | Regular season 2018-2019 | Stats | Liiga

I ninja edited, and I doubt you saw it.. but he had the 3rd hardest zone starts of any defenseman in the league that played 10 or more games. It's crazy that a coach trusted a U18 defenseman that much in a men's league, and honestly based on the CF% it was probably far too much, far too soon. I'd love to see if his stats change with easier zone starts, or just improvement with age, or if he's just another Ristolainen.