Prospect Info: Leafs 2018 3rd Rd Draft Pick (#76 OA via STL) - Semyon Der-Arguchintsev (5'10", 159 lbs, C, OHL)

[Warden of the North]

I did. My point is there are many ways to be successful.
People were calling him a bust and a wasted pick. Success for SDA might not even equate to NHL level, he could return something in trade or become a valuable piece with the marlies. Who knows at this point? But the post you replied to was touching on the posts that were calling him a bust last season and he is looking like anything other than that now. He is looking like he will have some value in the future.

If he doesnt make the NHL, hes a bust as an NHL draft pick.

Theres no crow to be eating right now because hes had a hot start to his D+2 season in the OHL.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Positive start for SDA. He really needed this after last season. I'd still like to see him shoot more.

 

[Stephen]

It's hard to envision a path for SDA to make the NHL when someone like Jeremy Bracco looks hard pressed himself, but I guess if they can program Timashov into a solid bottom 6 option you never know.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

It's hard to envision a path for SDA to make the NHL when someone like Jeremy Bracco looks hard pressed himself, but I guess if they can program Timashov into a solid bottom 6 option you never know.

I think Bracco is definitely going to play a handful of NHL games at some point in his career - it just might not necessarily happen next season nor with the Maple Leafs. But since 2000, how many players in the AHL who have averaged at least 1 PPG prior to his 22nd birthday has never played at least 50 games in the NHL? Don't have the stat on me, but I'm going to guess that it's pretty close to 10%, if not actually 0%.

 

[Stephen]

I think Bracco is definitely going to play a handful of NHL games at some point in his career - it just might not necessarily happen next season nor with the Maple Leafs. But since 2000, how many players in the AHL who have averaged at least 1 PPG prior to his 22nd birthday has never played at least 50 games in the NHL? Don't have the stat on me, but I'm going to guess that it's pretty close to 10%, if not actually 0%.

I guess it remains to be seen if drafting these “economy size” forwards, developing them for 3-5 years will end up being a good way or building tradeable assets. Looks like you could get a decent return on Andreas Johnsson if need be. But if you don’t have room in the NHL to play them to they end up like a Nic Petan or Brendan Leipsic who carry zero value?

 

[WilliamInLondon]

I guess it remains to be seen if drafting these “economy size” forwards, developing them for 3-5 years will end up being a good way or building tradeable assets. Looks like you could get a decent return on Andreas Johnsson if need be. But if you don’t have room in the NHL to play them to they end up like a Nic Petan or Brendan Leipsic who carry zero value?

yeah, I agree with this. I think Bracco is definitely going play in the NHL, but in terms of what context, role, and duration remains to be seen. If Dubas sees him well below the depth chart of current players, then he's best served to deal Bracco at peak value; it's hard to say what that might be, but I think he could be packaged at the draft for picks if he has another PPG+ season in the AHL. He could explode on another team become a consistent 50-60 point per season guy in the NHL, but if it's determined that he'll never get that shot with the Leafs over the next 3 years from today, then his value will be higher as an unknown high-achieving AHL commodity than as a Petan or Leipsic who will fetch a low round pick in spite of what he ends up becoming in the NHL.

 

[hobarth]

Right now I'm thinking Bracco is on the same path as Seth Griffith, a superior AHLer but with so many limitations that any real NHL time will only happen with a very bad team.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

It's hard to envision a path for SDA to make the NHL when someone like Jeremy Bracco looks hard pressed himself, but I guess if they can program Timashov into a solid bottom 6 option you never know.

I think guys like Moore /Robertson /SDA maybe Bracco etc will play an important role on our team when cap casualties come knocking.

Matthews / Tavares and Marner will remain the constants up front.
I won't say Kapanen/Johnsson/Nylander/Hyman are toast, but a revolving door of wingers will happen in this cap world.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I think guys like Moore /Robertson /SDA maybe Bracco etc will play an important role on our team when cap casualties come knocking.

Matthews / Tavares and Marner will remain the constants up front.
I won't say Kapanen/Johnsson/Nylander/Hyman are toast, but a revolving door of wingers will happen in this cap world.

I would put Nylander in that top group but yes Johnsson/Kapanen/Kerfoot/Hyman are the types you cycle out and move when things get too tight

 

[saltming]

If he doesnt make the NHL, hes a bust as an NHL draft pick.

Theres no crow to be eating right now because hes had a hot start to his D+2 season in the OHL.

I agree about the no crow, but not the bust. 3rd round picks seldom make it. The norm would be for him not to make it.
How can doing what is expected be a bust?

 

[Kiwi]

I agree about the no crow, but not the bust. 3rd round picks seldom make it. The norm would be for him not to make it.
How can doing what is expected be a bust?

If you give up an asset to acquire said player (3rd round pick) and get no value from it it's a bust, even though getting nothing is the probable outcome

 

[deletethis]

Right now I'm thinking Bracco is on the same path as Seth Griffith, a superior AHLer but with so many limitations that any real NHL time will only happen with a very bad team.

Maybe. I thought Brad Boyes was going to be this type of player as he was kind of a perimeter guy with nice hands but he etched out of a nice career after taking a lot of AHL development. Kyle Wellwood is another example of a dipsy doodler type who managed to play nearly 500 with an eSports physique.

 

[Orfieus]

If he doesnt make the NHL, hes a bust as an NHL draft pick.

Theres no crow to be eating right now because hes had a hot start to his D+2 season in the OHL.

Oh I very much disagree, you need players to also fill out your minor leagues. Having a minor league that is consistently fighting for championships is the perfect development program for any potential player

If SDA never makes it onto the Marlies or only plays 1yr on the Marlies then I will agree that pick is a bust

 

[saltming]

If you give up an asset to acquire said player (3rd round pick) and get no value from it it's a bust, even though getting nothing is the probable outcome

Earlier in the convo I said if he gets a return it's a success, but @Warden of the North said he has to make the NHL or he is a bust

 

[Kiwi]

Earlier in the convo I said if he gets a return it's a success, but @Warden of the North said he has to make the NHL or he is a bust

I think he needs to add value to the franchise or he's a bust, so he needs to return something if he's traded or add value to the Marlies at least

 

[saltming]

I think he needs to add value to the franchise or he's a bust, so he needs to return something if he's traded or add value to the Marlies at least

What does the average 3rd round draft pick amount to or return?

 

[Kiwi]

What does the average 3rd round draft pick amount to or return?

If the pick or player you acquired returns nothing of value to the franchise it's a bust asset

 

[nuck]

Maybe. I thought Brad Boyes was going to be this type of player as he was kind of a perimeter guy with nice hands but he etched out of a nice career after taking a lot of AHL development. Kyle Wellwood is another example of a dipsy doodler type who managed to play nearly 500 with an eSports physique.

Well put!

 

[nuck]

If the pick or player you acquired returns nothing of value to the franchise it's a bust asset

Its what the word means to you I guess. To me that's kind of a strong term for a pick outside the top 60. Brandon Convery at #8 = bust. Grigorenko was a top 12 pick but only played 212 games so a bust.
My success for top 20 is not the same as my success for a 60-80 picks who have to be considered a win if they play over 200 games in the show. A player outside the top 180 cost almost no value so can they ever be a bust?

If Bracco doesn't play 100+ games for the Leafs or get dealt for an asset worth more than the 61st pick I will give him the tag but it seems kind harsh to use the same term as we did for Tyler Biggs. Maybe Biggs needs an elite category as worst 1st rounder since Ernie Moser

 

[Kiwi]

Its what the word means to you I guess. To me that's kind of a strong term for a pick outside the top 60. Brandon Convery at #8 = bust. Grigorenko was a top 12 pick but only played 212 games so a bust.
My success for top 20 is not the same as my success for a 60-80 picks who have to be considered a win if they play over 200 games in the show. A player outside the top 180 cost almost no value so can they ever be a bust?

If Bracco doesn't play 100+ games for the Leafs or get dealt for an asset worth more than the 61st pick I will give him the tag but it seems kind harsh to use the same term as we did for Tyler Biggs. Maybe Biggs needs an elite category as worst 1sr rounder since Ernie Moser

I don't really care about the percentage of likelihood of the asset turning into something of value

Every pick, prospect or player has a value or negative value

If you use something of value (every draft pick has some form of value from the 1st OA to the 7th round) and you get nothing of value from it that's a bust of the asset

It went from having value to having no value even if it's of limited value like a 3rd

 

[hockeynorth]

I don't really care about the percentage of likelihood of the asset turning into something of value

Every pick, prospect or player has a value or negative value

If you use something of value (every draft pick has some form of value from the 1st OA to the 7th round) and you get nothing of value from it that's a bust of the asset

It went from having value to having no value even if it's of limited value like a 3rd

Agreed, value everything we have. Some would be bigger busts then others (duh) but a 0 value return is a failure on anything, save for a negative value return.

 

[saltming]

If the pick or player you acquired returns nothing of value to the franchise it's a bust asset

So all those 5th and 6th rounders are busts?

 

[saltming]

I don't really care about the percentage of likelihood of the asset turning into something of value

Every pick, prospect or player has a value or negative value

If you use something of value (every draft pick has some form of value from the 1st OA to the 7th round) and you get nothing of value from it that's a bust of the asset

It went from having value to having no value even if it's of limited value like a 3rd

To be fair the original argument you jumped on on said SDA HAS to make the NHL or he is a bust.
Agree or disagree?

 

[Kiwi]

So all those 5th and 6th rounders are busts?

If they become nothing of value? Yes they are because beforehand even a 5th or 6th has some value

To be fair the original argument you jumped on on said SDA HAS to make the NHL or he is a bust.
Agree or disagree?

If he adds value on the Marlies you can argue he's brought something of value to the franchise, so no

If he doesn't do that though it's a bust of a 3rd which had some value

 

[saltming]

If they become nothing of value? Yes they are because beforehand even a 5th or 6th has some value



If he adds value on the Marlies you can argue he's brought something of value to the franchise, so no

If he doesn't do that though it's a bust of a 3rd which had some value

Ok so you are agreeing with me