Salary Cap: Leafs’ core moving forward

[Nithoniniel]

This looks pretty accurate.

Though I do wonder how management views Gardiner vs Rielly with regards to the team's future

I don't know actually. Good question. My feeling is that they view Rielly as more important long-term, but I don't think I have something to base that on.

 

[MJ65]

$6-7M for Gardiner?!

Wow. Not if I had a say.

Gardiner has another season left after this one before his contract expire and lot can happen between now and then so I would worry about that as yet

 

[Joedoggy]

The time is "The next 2 yrs to WIN"....if its Going to happen its now.....things have a way of going sideways as time moves on.....The Team has a the proper mix in place...the only thing that can go wrong is over coaching/overplaying players. This core talk is loser/wishful thinking mentality...Now is the time to win.

Moving forward can be moving backward ...the Wings also had this problem and are getting back on track.

 

[jrgtml67]

A thought. If we sign Zaitsev countrymen in Igor (Og whatever), that would drastically change things. He is a big body, right shot, and that shot is a huge bomb apparently. The lets say that Lily makes the team. So you would potentially have this.

Rielly-Gardiner
Zaits-Oggy
Borgman-Lily

So where does Rosen go? Where would Dermott fit? What if Dermott has a better camp than both Rosen and Borgman. Suddenly we have a log jam back there. Also Doughty would be nice but cannot see how we can afford him. Assume Nylander gets a simliar contract to Ehlers, if not a little more so maybe 7 and change. The Matthews signs pretty close to Mcdavids deal ( I think he take a bit less if asked to make sure we can sign Marner) who would get again same as Ehlers if not a bit more. So 14million with Nylander and Marner, Matthews at 11million, so that is 25million with 3 guys. Then it remains to be seen if we re up JVR on a friendly deal. We have Lupul coming off which accounts for 5.25mill of Nylander deal for next season that is.

Rielly-5m
Zaits-4.5
Gard-4m
Hainsey-3m (up when Matthews Marner are due)

So next year that is--5+4.5+4+3+7 which is 23.5million.
Then the forwards

Marleau-6.25m
Kadri-4.5m
Martin-2.5m
Hyman-2.5m
Brown-2.5m
Matthews-925k
Marner-895k

Total-17million (rounding)--total hit with JVR and Bozak is then 50.5million. Add Kessel 1.25million, Andersen 5million, Horton 5.3million.

Total-62million

Now keep in mind we still have 2 holes with JVR and Bozak unless will fill those with say, Kasper and Aaltonenn. Then Pickard is the backup or Sparky. If we fill from within we have around 5million left. So therefore no room for a Doughty, and unless he takes a serious cut to play here, and I cannot see that. The only way it works is if we some how get Horton off our books he is eating a huge amount of salary. But I cannot think of a deal. The only one that makes a bit of sense, and trade some of our wing depth and get a team to take the dump on Horton.

Thankfully the leafs are really good with cap crunching so I guess it is possible. Also in ties with this, the same goes for people saying we can afford Johnny T. This may be more likely because thus far he has not performed to his potential. That then could mean we get him for around that 5million mark. Question is this. People think Nylander will be center next year.

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Marleau-Nylander-Brown
Kasper-Johnny-Komarov (if re signed)
Martin-Aaltonenn-Grundstrom

Rielly-Gardiner
Zaits-Oggy
Borgman-Lily

The last part is what then would Zaitsev's compatriot be worth? If Johnny does not sign here then I would think Fehr/Moore one is staying anyway and Aaltonenn is our 3rd line guy.

Cutting it super close. I guess we will see. But I cannot see Doughty at all. I have no clue how he fits, unless we unload one of Rielly, Gardiner or Zaitsev. Zaitsev I think is a lock especially if his buddy is coming over. So I guess if it meant we lose Rielly or Gardiner for Doughty that is not a bad trade off at all.

 

[Swedish Gretzky]

Ok let's play this game. Here's what I expect for the Leafs lineup in the near future.

Hyman - AM34 - Marner
Grundstrom - Nylander- Kapanen
xxxx - Kadri - Brown
Martin - xxxx - Bracco/xxxx

xxx - Zaitsev
Rielly - xxxx
Dermott - Liljegren
7th: Borgman

lost to free agency/traded: Gardiner, komorov, JVR, bozak, soshnikov, leivo, hainsey, andreas Jonnsson
darkhorses: Korshkov, Middleton,

 

[cupcrazyman]

Which site is more accurate ?

Cap Friendly vs NHL Numbers

 

[Minus Mitch]

Kadri but not Brown as core? Good lord.

 

[Bullseye]

Leafs Core:

Matthews
Rielly
Andersen

#1C, #1D, Goalie The Leafs can afford to be patient with everyone else.

 

[ITM]

Hey guys, I was thinking this through the other day. The prevailing mentality seems to be to lock up a core of 5-7 key players and then continually build and prune around them as necessary. Assuming that’s the general consensus on how to build a perennial contender, what does everyone think this team looks like moving forward as far as contracts? I’m not a big salary cap junkie so I’ll leave the number crunching up to others more intelligent than myself but my thinking is that it’s pretty unarguable as to who the Leafs’ core 5-7 guys would be. In no particular order:

1. Auston Matthews
2. William Nylander
3. Mitch Marner
4. Frederik Andersen
5. Morgan Rielly
6. Nikita Zaitsev
7. Jake Gardiner
8. Timothy Liljegren (assuming he pans out as expected, and then you probably have a decision to make somewhere among the defence)

What does everyone think? Thoughts, opinions, different list than mine? I’m also curious as to what people think the team’s salary cap situation would look like with that setup (or whatever setup you envision).

There's a number of assumptions that we can't operate under and one of them entails that the mismanagement of one team or another won't yield assets that are better than some of those listed in the eight above. We also can't determine to insist that if we don't have a championship by the time Matthews is 24 or 25, that we've failed and have to blow what we've built to smithereens. It could very well be that by the time this club wins, that some of these identified core players won't be here. In fact the only player I think we can reasonably presume is going to be here for the duration of his career is Auston Matthews. I've been a constant supporter of Gardiner, Andersen, Marner and Nylander, but it never fails on me that Andersen's prime may have passed by the time we win a cup and Marner and Nylander deemed necessary to acquire players of certain preference.

Ovechkin, Backstrom and Holtby haven't won a Cup. Thorton and Marleau and Pavelski look like they're going to retire without a Cup. It may well be that Lundqvist retires without one too. All this to say, it seems that in most instances, we'll be lucky to have a couple of championship quality core pieces. The only piece I think represents that is Auston Matthews in the long term sense of the idea of what other perennial contenders appear to have and as importantly pieces that were once deemed "necessary" only to be moved for other preferred assets i.e. Dubinsky and Stepan for the Rangers, Shattenkirk for St.Louis and Washington, Mike Richards and Jeff Carter for Philadelphia.

I would compartmentalize a tier of core players placing Matthews in a category of one.

In the second tier (at present) it should be:

1. Andersen
2. Kadri
3. Reilly

We lose these pieces (Andersen excluded) and the third tier of: Nylander, Marner and Gardiner, Zaitsev can't supplement the loss. At least not right now. And we need some form of hedge to continue to allow Nylander (especially) and the likes of Marner the room to grow into leaders. I don't know if that involves maintaining JVR's presence or Marleau's, but what this club needs is championship experience on the ice. I thought Justin Williams might have been a good get, but perhaps there's similar options in the off-season.

Liljegren is an X-factor at the moment. Obvious talent, but we need to step back from anointing him as Reilly 2.o and moreover stop insisting that Reilly is a number one D in a championship mold, when he absolutely cannot be defined as such in the here and now. I think what management needs to prioritize is to acquire the D equivalent of Marleau, but a much younger equivalent. Enter Drew Doughty...As a number of us have repeated, the absolute ideal free agent signing for this club.

So over the next couple of seasons, we'll wrap up Matthews at a high price and hopefully sign Nylander and Marner to friendly-ish contracts. We've got fantastic contracts in Andersen and Kadri - something to be very thankful for. And the same with Hyman and Brown. These guys are the kind of glue type players that ultimately some will say they said so in saying these two were also "core" players...And in a Martin Lapointe sort of way that wouldn't be a bad thing.

We also need to focus on shifting our scouting department towards Andersen's heir. Before the draft that saw Carter Hart head to the Flyers (at 48?) , I had mentioned that that was who I wanted (along with Kale Clague) at 31. Hindsight's 20/20, but beginning to focus on insurance for Andersen outside of Mac's yeoman like service, is another step towards legitimate contention. Is it Sparks? Is it Woll? It's no coincidence that Vasilevsky turning the corner in Tampa or Holtby emerging in Washington or Murray in Pittsburgh, that those goalies groomed from within the organization have such a profound residual effect on the organization when then the likes of a Casey Desmith or Tristan Jarry just slot in and perform wonderfully.

Many more steps to take yet.

 

[Sypher04]

eh, for me, "fairly easily replaceable" isn't "core".

And yet, our struggles to find a quality goaltender for such a long time would indicate that "fairly easily replaceable" is not accurate when assessing Andersen.

EDIT: didn't notice the date on this thread when I replied.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Tier One
Matthews

Tier Two
Rielly, Nyladner, Marner

Tier Three
Kadri, Anderson, Zaitsev

Hopefuls
Liljegren, Dermott
Kapanen, Brown

 

[Apotheosis]

You ear mark Marner, Matthews and Nylander as the forwards. Andersen as the goalie. Rielly as the D. Unless anyone else establishes themselves beyond doubt that they should be a core piece, everything else is interchangeable.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I know I'll get hated on this because omigod iluvzreims, but looking at those core pieces, the guy that's most expendable for me is Andersen.

Based on his overall body of work, I would say he's been one of the most valuable players on the team.

 

[thewave]

As it stands.

Marner 5.5-6m
Nylander 5.5-6m
Matthews 8m

I cant justify giving Matthews more money than Stamkos. I don't care if its short or long term deal but not paying him 11 considering how he handles the game when we tighten up.