Leaf rookie scoring in historical context

[embracedbias]

Leafs rookies are up to 145 points after only 37 games (55 goals, 90 assists). If all the current rookies stayed in the lineup and kept up their current pace, we would finish with 339 points from rookies. I'm guessing we finish close to 300 or so.

The next highest team is Winnipeg with 48 points from rookies.

I decided to take a look at past years in order to gain some historical context. This was not systematic, as I simply looked at the top rookie scorers and took a guess as to which teams would be tops in the league. The logic is that if a team didn't have at least a couple to rookie scorers, they won't be close to the pace that the Leafs are at.

Pretty sure Chicago was the top team last year and they had 127 points from rookies.

Ottawa might have been the year before that with 131.

Tampon Bay had 201 in 13/14.

Nothing much for a few years (based on whether a single team had more than one top rookie scorer) until 10/11 when Edmonton had 163 points (year of Hall, Eberle, MSP, Omark).

Colorado had 166 in 09/10 (Duchene, O'Reilly).

The year Kane/Toews/Bolland broke into the league (07/08), Chicago had a grand total of 174 rookie points (Kane had 72 and Toews had 54).

Pittsburgh got 136 when Malkin/Staal were rookies (06/07). Colorado got 130 from Stastny/Wolski that year.

Washington got 143 from Ovechkin/Laich (few others) in 05/06.

Pittsburgh got 252 from Crosby/Armstrong/Whitney that year. And that was the first year after the lockout when there were basically 50 players scoring at close to PPG and 7 cracked 100 points. Tomas Kaberle had 7:30 on the PP per game that year.

Didn't check every team every year, but I think it's safe to say that 252 is a good post-lockout benchmark.

------

Out of curiosity, I looked at Winnipeg the year that Selanne/Tkachuk were rookies (92/93) and they got 330 points from rookies. Lemieux had 160 points in 60 games that year.

Gretzky and Messier accounted for 167 points in their rookie season (79/80), but I don't know what the total for Edmonton is because the NHL website doesn't apparently have that data.

One other thing I checked:
Atlanta got 162 points in 01/02 (when Heatley and Kovalchuk were rookies).

------

I'm hoping other people will check other years so that we can get a better sense of just how special this season has been for Leafs rookies. If someone wants to adjust the numbers based on league scoring, even better.

Click to read more...

 

[indigobuffalo]

Pretty awesome statistic. Romanuk better be taking notes.

 

[Slot]

You may want to change Tampa's name. Autocorrect wasn't your friend.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Auston Matthews leading the way

 

[Randy Randerson]

The Tampa Bay autocorrect wins.

While it's encouraging, it's probably prudent to look at how many rookie games played each of those teams had. I'm sure that we would still finish high on the list, but I don't think our group of rookies is the best in the cap era by a long shot, I think it's that we have so many of them hitting the league at the same time

rookie points per game might put that in context


either way, very happy with the performance of our kids

 

[Mats13]

You may want to change Tampa's name. Autocorrect wasn't your friend.

 

[embracedbias]

The Tampa Bay autocorrect wins.

While it's encouraging, it's probably prudent to look at how many rookie games played each of those teams had. I'm sure that we would still finish high on the list, but I don't think our group of rookies is the best in the cap era by a long shot, I think it's that we have so many of them hitting the league at the same time

rookie points per game might put that in context


either way, very happy with the performance of our kids

I think that's the impressive part. Particularly the Brown/Matthews/Hyman line, which is producing at a remarkable rate considering their inexperience and age.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think that's the impressive part. Particularly the Brown/Matthews/Hyman line, which is producing at a remarkable rate considering their inexperience and age.

Ya for sure, don't get me wrong I'm not saying that our group of rookies is pedestrian by any means, I just mean the sheer volume of the rookie games played in our lineup will inflate the point totals. Most teams, even teams in rebuilds like Wpg or the mid 2000's Pens, don't have 7-8 rookies in the lineup each night

Most rebuilding teams stagger the injection of rookies into their lineups as those rookies are drafted/become available. We have 3 premium guys starting in one year and a bunch more decent ones, I think that's very rare in volume

also I don't like that Zaitsev, Soshnikov or even Hyman get considered as rookies, they're men

 

[67Cup]

The Leafs rookie group of 1936/37 certainly did not total the number of points of this year's class, given the 50 Game season and lower scoring hockey. But three future Hall of Famers Syl Apps, Gordie Drillon and Turk Broda joined the team that year. Apps won the Calder, finishing second by only one point in the scoring race. He led the keague in assists, I believe. That woukd have to be the best individual season by a rookie in Leafs history.

It would be amazing if this group could match that group's achievement.

 

[Cleetus]

You may want to change Tampa's name. Autocorrect wasn't your friend.

lol thats what ill be calling them from now on great name!!

 

[Caesium]

Totalling the points seems disingenuous to me, I'd view it as points and man games, not just games played by the team. If you have 9-10 rookies in the lineup, you're going to total a lot more than a team that has 3.

 

[embracedbias]

Totalling the points seems disingenuous to me, I'd view it as points and man games, not just games played by the team. If you have 9-10 rookies in the lineup, you're going to total a lot more than a team that has 3.

That's basically the point. Not disingenuous at all. It's about the collective contribution of rookies under the assumption that having lots of good contributing rookies is a good sign for the future. Tells us about organizational depth

 

[Doug Gilmour]

That's basically the point. Not disingenuous at all. It's about the collective contribution of rookies under the assumption that having lots of good contributing rookies is a good sign for the future. Tells us about organizational depth

 

[Jeypic]

Ya for sure, don't get me wrong I'm not saying that our group of rookies is pedestrian by any means, I just mean the sheer volume of the rookie games played in our lineup will inflate the point totals. Most teams, even teams in rebuilds like Wpg or the mid 2000's Pens, don't have 7-8 rookies in the lineup each night

Most rebuilding teams stagger the injection of rookies into their lineups as those rookies are drafted/become available. We have 3 premium guys starting in one year and a bunch more decent ones, I think that's very rare in volume

also I don't like that Zaitsev, Soshnikov or even Hyman get considered as rookies, they're men

Is brown a man? Is nylander a man? Is marner a man? Do you have to break into the league after your draft year to be considered a rookie? Or does marner get a pass with 1 more year of development? How bout nylander with 2 more years?

Where do we draw the line? I think it's easier if we just keep calling a first year nhler a rookie.

Also curious of what your definition of a man is lol.

 

[BayStreetBully]

That's basically the point. Not disingenuous at all. It's about the collective contribution of rookies under the assumption that having lots of good contributing rookies is a good sign for the future. Tells us about organizational depth

If we make a real run at the playoffs, the fact that we HAVE so many rookies in our lineup means that they will play a huge part in that run.

And since we weren't supposed to have a run at the playoffs this season, our team will have massively overachieved, thanks to our rookies. That's a big deal.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Is brown a man? Is nylander a man? Is marner a man? Do you have to break into the league after your draft year to be considered a rookie? Or does marner get a pass with 1 more year of development? How bout nylander with 2 more years?

Where do we draw the line? I think it's easier if we just keep calling a first year nhler a rookie.

Also curious of what your definition of a man is lol.

um...using age as the differentiator here, thought that would be obvious

Like for example, I take issue with Panarin winning the calder last year at 24 years old

Incase you don't know, Zaitsev is 25, Hyman is 24 and Soshnikov is 23. Marner, Matthews and Nylander will be on their second contracts before they're as old as the youngest of that group

I don't think it's fair that teenage rookies get held to the same measurement as mid 20's rookies, would be all for an age limit of ~21 to be considered a "rookie"

 

[AINEC*]

Pretty awesome statistic. Romanuk better be taking notes.

Paul Romanuk has taken one note in his entire life with regards to commentating hockey games. It is a cocktail napkin with "hokey?" scribbled on it.

 

[IBeL34f]

um...using age as the differentiator here, thought that would be obvious

Like for example, I take issue with Panarin winning the calder last year at 24 years old

Incase you don't know, Zaitsev is 25, Hyman is 24 and Soshnikov is 23. Marner, Matthews and Nylander will be on their second contracts before they're as old as the youngest of that group

I don't think it's fair that teenage rookies get held to the same measurement as mid 20's rookies, would be all for an age limit of ~21 to be considered a "rookie"

Your first year in the NHL is gonna be hard as hell, regardless of how old you are.

I think age should be taken into consideration when trying to award the Calder - if two players had similar seasons, but one is 6 years younger, I go with the younger guy - but I think it's ridiculous to put a deadline on when someone can be a "rookie", when it's a term used to literally describe a first-year athlete.

If anything, they could make some kind of rule about eligibility with regards to an amount of previous years spent in another professional League, such as the KHL, or something. But really, let first-year players be rookies, and if one of them is the best rookie that year, let them be the best rookie that year.

 

[nuck]

duplicate

 

[nuck]

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

From Hockey Reference, the year by year scoring gives additional context to comparisons. For instance there was 33% more scoring in Sellane's rookie year than in the last 10 seasons and about 13% more scoring in Crosby/Ovy's rookie year compared to this one.