Salary Cap: Laine's contract in 19/20

kunekune

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Feb 17, 2016
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10 million aav is a pay cut for Laine.

Chevy is a genius if he can get Laine for 8 x 10.
 

surixon

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Jul 12, 2003
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There is very, very little likelihood of Laine signing @ $6.5 long term, whether he likes Winnipeg or not. Yes, cap management is important, but goal scorers get paid, especially someone that has so much potential ahead of him. See Ovie, Stamkos, etc.

I don't like the Ovie comp myself as Ovie impacted the play far more his first few years in the league. He was much more dynamic all around offensive player and had a top 3 scoring finish to his name through his first couple of seasons.

Stamkos is a center who won a rocket his second year and finished top 5 in total points.

Laine looks to only have their goal scoring equaled but has a ways to go to equal their total offensive impact as he will have 30th and somewhere in the 20 finish in regards to total points.

I'd say he's a level or two below them pay wise.

Also all of these big ticket deals have been for Centers which have typically gotten paid more then wingers even back when Stamkos and co signed their deals.
 

YWGinYYZ

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Jul 3, 2011
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@surixon: don't disagree about Ovechkin's impact, but (under the old CBA), he did garner a $10M contract back in 2008. Laine is not a fully developed product so we'd be paying for potential. Not sure it's going to be $10M, but I could see somewhere in the neighborhood of $8x8, to spitball.

Neither of these were intended to be direct comps, just stating that goal scorers (especially young ones) tend to get paid pretty handsomely.
 

surixon

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Don't take this the wrong way but that's a two-way street. His agent would just encounter with a scent of sarcasm "yeah, he certainly has enjoyed playing with Little for the majority of his career". You are right about Stastny though, they really need to find a way to keep him. If not, here's to hoping Roslovic is ready for second line center duties next year. I think the Little contract will start seriously biting the team in the ars* in the coming years.



I don't agree with this at all. There's noway I would put Hall in the same ballpark with Laine, not even close. Lets look at their first two years (with Laine so far):

Hall 2010-11: 65 games and 42 points (22 + 20) with average TOI 18:13
Hall 2011-12: 61 games and 53 points (27 + 26) with average TOI 18:13

Laine 2016-17: 73 games and 63 points (36 + 28) with average TOI: 17:55
Laine 2017-18: 66 games and 61 points (38 +23) with average TOI: 16:33

Now lets think about these numbers a little. Patrik Laine has outscored Taylor Hall by a significant margin in goals alone while hitting the 30 goal barrier both of his seasons. Hall did not, granted that he did also play less games. Laine has also better PGP and P/60 on both seasons and hasn't even finished the second year yet. Nevermind what comes to point production especially on the second season, Laine's average ice time isn't even close to Hall's (nearly 2 minutes less). Should we value goals or assists more? Well I personally think goal scorers are far more valuable and far more harder to come by at this level (once in a generation or so). I didn't dig up any data on Hall's most frequent line mates during those years but I would take a wild guess with RNH and Eberle? For Laine, Ehlers and Little where he's shared pretty much no on ice chemistry with the latter who I think by now is his most common line mate (probably close with Ehlers). If one wanted to build a case for Taylor Hall over Laine, you could maybe make an argument of him being the better line driver during his first two seasons (as he is fast as hell), but at the same time you could make an argument of Laine being the better game breaker. I don't see them being equals however and Laine has always been the superior force.

So no, they are not really even all that close and if/when Laine breaks the 40 goal benchmark this season that will further separate them. Does anyone here seriously believe that prime Laine would be traded to Adam Larsson? Kid me not! As far as the contract comes I think it's Laine's bench who will dictate considering the market value for these young superstars has already been set and if the Jets want to fight, it will be really bad pr, but here's to hoping he will take some discount unlike McDavid and Eichel. He could cash in right now but I'm almost hoping he won't sign until the ELC is over so that they won't try to snowball him with low TOI at 18-19, making him mad even before entering the negotiation table (try get a discount from Laine playing him 16+ minutes a game in average by the third year - could turn out difficult).

Laine also played with significantly more talent including spending a lot of time with a top 5 C in the league. That is something Hall never got in Edmonton outside a small handful of games woth McDavid 2 seasons ago. Hall also didn't have the luxury of being sheltered as he was brought in due to lack of depth. I stand the notion that both are equivilint talents.
 

surixon

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@surixon: don't disagree about Ovechkin's impact, but (under the old CBA), he did garner a $10M contract back in 2008. Laine is not a fully developed product so we'd be paying for potential. Not sure it's going to be $10M, but I could see somewhere in the neighborhood of $8x8, to spitball.

Neither of these were intended to be direct comps, just stating that goal scorers (especially young ones) tend to get paid pretty handsomely.

No doubt as I showed with those comps i think 7 at 8 or 8 at 8.5 are reasonable if Laine isn't trying to squeeze everything out of the deal. I just don't think you can use the Ovie deal as any sort of basis given that its illegal under the new CBA and was essentially a career contract.
 

YWGinYYZ

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For sure: wasn't using it as a direct comparable - more just making a point that those type of players get paid. The old CBA was rather ... generous. :D
 

grieves

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Laine also played with significantly more talent including spending a lot of time with a top 5 C in the league. That is something Hall never got in Edmonton outside a small handful of games woth McDavid 2 seasons ago. Hall also didn't have the luxury of being sheltered as he was brought in due to lack of depth. I stand the notion that both are equivilint talents.

Laine has played in the ELL line though. That's a major reason his production is only at the level it is currently. Not the only reason, but a HUGE reason nonetheless. It kind of diminishes the "quality of linemates" by A LOT (not because the linemates are bad, but because the line is bad).

I think Laine would already be sitting at 50 goals had he played with a more suitable center from the beginning. ELL was a good move by the management.

Also, Ovi's rookie season is Laine's next season comparatively.
 

surixon

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Laine has played in the ELL line though. That's a major reason his production is only at the level it is currently. Not the only reason, but a HUGE reason nonetheless. It kind of diminishes the "quality of linemates" by A LOT (not because the linemates are bad, but because the line is bad).

I think Laine would already be sitting at 50 goals had he played with a more suitable center from the beginning. ELL was a good move by the management.

Also, Ovi's rookie season is Laine's next season comparatively.

Its still signifiantly better than what Hall got to work with. The Oilers leading scorer In his rookie year had 43 points, last season the Jets had 7 players eclipse that mark 5 of them by a significant amount. Hall played a lot with Shawn Horcoff as his center. The crying about Little is getting a bit silly here, plenty of other young players have had to work with far worse. I don't think people realize how putrid those Oiler teams where.

People are free to disagree but i feel them equivilint talents and have a very hard time seeing Laine perform as well has he has for us if he was stuck on those Oiler teams Hall was his first two years.
 

grieves

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Its still signifiantly better than what Hall got to work with. The Oilers leading scorer In his rookie year had 43 points, last season the Jets had 7 players eclipse that mark 5 of them by a significant amount. Hall played a lot with Shawn Horcoff as his center. The crying about Little is getting a bit silly here, plenty of other young players have had to work with far worse. I don't think people realize how putrid those Oiler teams where.

People are free to disagree but i feel them equivilint talents and have a very hard time seeing Laine perform as well has he has for us if he was stuck on those Oiler teams Hall was his first two years.

No-one is crying about Little. That is why I said the problem was not the linemates, it was the line. This is obvious (and was obvious already from last season) to anyone who watched the games.

I don't know how well Hall's unit functioned so I can't say about what kind of chemistry and quality he was working with, but ELL was a disaster on wheels. Surely you are not denying that at this point, because then it is clear that we have an extremely differing opinion about reality here.

Chalking it up to "crying about Little" is inaccurate, and frankly I'm getting tired of that strawman-nonsense at this point. People were saying that Laine fans will blame all of Laine's centers but that didn't happen with Copp, Scheifele, or Stastny. Just Little because they clearly did not mesh in the slightest.
 

DRW204

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Hall's contract was 10% of the cap at the time...equates to 8M AAV for Laine. I think that's the absolute floor potentially basement of what he makes at this point
 
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surixon

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No-one is crying about Little. That is why I said the problem was not the linemates, it was the line. This is obvious (and was obvious already from last season) to anyone who watched the games.

I don't know how well Hall's unit functioned so I can't say about what kind of chemistry and quality he was working with, but ELL was a disaster on wheels. Surely you are not denying that at this point, because then it is clear that we have an extremely differing opinion about reality here.

Chalking it up to "crying about Little" is inaccurate, and frankly I'm getting tired of that strawman-nonsense at this point. People were saying that Laine fans will blame all of Laine's centers but that didn't happen with Copp, Scheifele, or Stastny. Just Little because they clearly did not mesh in the slightest.

I don't think they where the disaster on wheels that you are making them out to be. They generated chances at a solid rate but couldn't cash which made the line appear worse then it actually was. Just as the PS centered line looks better than it actually is because they are currently scoring on everything. Laine scored quite well with Little last season, do you really think they lost all of their chemistry?

Sure Statsney is a more natural fit but Laine ratcheted his game up prior to him getting here and is even on record as saying the demotion to play with Copp woke him up and he started playing a more engaged and quick brand of hockey.
 

Vekke

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Feb 28, 2018
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Laine also played with significantly more talent including spending a lot of time with a top 5 C in the league. That is something Hall never got in Edmonton outside a small handful of games woth McDavid 2 seasons ago. Hall also didn't have the luxury of being sheltered as he was brought in due to lack of depth. I stand the notion that both are equivilint talents.
We all know that he was sheltered on his first year and now he enjoys easy match ups, that has been made clear by many posters. I believe the first mistake about your estimation is that Hall entered the league on 2010. It is 8 years ago and things have changed after that. Laine has also piled up more goals than anyone during his time in the NHL and he has done this before his 20th birthday. He is a generational talent at scoring and he wont't sign longterm with figure 6 or 7 in front. For Jets sake I hope it is 8-9M$ and there is discount included.
 
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grieves

silent prayer
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I don't think they where the disaster on wheels that you are making them out to be. They generated chances at a solid rate but couldn't cash which made the line appear worse then it actually was. Just as the PS centered line looks better than it actually is because they are currently scoring on everything. Laine scored quite well with Little last season, do you really think they lost all of their chemistry?

Sure Statsney is a more natural fit but Laine ratcheted his game up prior to him getting here and is even on record as saying the demotion to play with Copp woke him up and he started playing a more engaged and quick brand of hockey.

They did not have chemistry last year. It was maybe slightly better, but still very bad, as the numbers indicated. Even before ELL was assembled the first time this season, I knew it was going to be terrible, and so did many others. Little and Laine are the absolute last pairing this team should use.

If you think ELL was fine, then we indeed disagree on such a fundamental level about reality that further discussion is not going to be very fruitful.
 
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surixon

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We all know that he was sheltered on his first year and now he enjoys easy match ups, that has been made clear by many posters. I believe the first mistake about your estimation is that Hall entered the league on 2010. It is 8 years ago and things have changed after that. Laine has also piled up more goals than anyone during his time in the NHL and he has done this before his 20th birthday. He is a generational talent at scoring and he wont't sign longterm with figure 6 or 7 in front. For Jets sake I hope it is 8-9M$ and there is discount included.

I used the same percentage of the cap hit that Hall signed for adjusted for what the Cap is estimated to be. That is how most agents and GMs negotiate now. It's not so much about the dollars but about how much of the cap they take.

For instance McDavids (16.67%) contract is roughly the same percentage of the cap that Crosby's (17.30%) second contract was. The only difference is the cap has gone up which in turn pushes the salary up.

Edit looking at it a bit further how the heckndid Buffalos GM allow himself to get bent over so much by Echiel. Every other star center that wasn't a generational type talent like Crosby, McDavid, Malkin got within 11 to 11.99 % of the cap. Echiel got 13.33.......

That list includes the following players second contracts.

Toews
Kopitar
Stamkos
Backstrom

Just stupid GMing, even Draisital fits in that range dispite not having earned a spot with those players..
 
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kelsier

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Laine also played with significantly more talent including spending a lot of time with a top 5 C in the league. That is something Hall never got in Edmonton outside a small handful of games woth McDavid 2 seasons ago. Hall also didn't have the luxury of being sheltered as he was brought in due to lack of depth. I stand the notion that both are equivilint talents.

So Laine played ~half a season in total out of two full seasons with Scheifele where Hall probably played mostly with Eberle (does anyone have any specifics on this by the way?), therefore Laine has some kind of an edge? Laine's most regular center has been Little not Scheifele, and there's no need to even go there. Furthermore Hall's points, let alone goals where never anywhere near Laine's despite of playing more minutes, so quite frankly I'm not sure where you coming with all this.

Laine is the leading goal scorer of the NHL since entering it. Hall has absolutely nothing equivalent in the resume and they absolutely are NOT in the same ballpark.

I don't like the Ovie comp myself as Ovie impacted the play far more his first few years in the league. He was much more dynamic all around offensive player and had a top 3 scoring finish to his name through his first couple of seasons.

Stamkos is a center who won a rocket his second year and finished top 5 in total points.

Laine looks to only have their goal scoring equaled but has a ways to go to equal their total offensive impact as he will have 30th and somewhere in the 20 finish in regards to total points.

I'd say he's a level or two below them pay wise.

Also all of these big ticket deals have been for Centers which have typically gotten paid more then wingers even back when Stamkos and co signed their deals.

Laine has already passed Stamkos as the better goal scorer with era adjusted statistics and has 16 more games left to play. See for yourself:

One stat that puts Patrik Laine’s teenage years into legendary status - Article - BARDOWN

He will also outscore Stamkos in era adjusted total points barring an injury. So yeah, definitely tier if not four below pay wise! This example at least is a notch better than the one with Hall. I just wonder who comes next. :)

I understand the need to look for whatever possible statistics or data to justify a lower salary hit, but this is a bit ridiculous and certainly won't be determined at the HFboards.
 

Howard Chuck

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I think those guessing between $8 - $10 M are in the ball park depending on a few factors. Matthews will set the ceiling and I think he gets what Eichel got. So $10 is the high end. After that is how the rest of Laine's season plays out. Does he remain on a tear or does he flatten out. In the playoffs does the scoring continue or drop off, or does he raise it another level? After that is how badly he wants to get every last cent Vs. something a little more manageable to sign the other talent around him. So assuming a 8 year deal I'll guess $8.5 - $9 M AAV with a big signing bonus and a little lockout protection. I just think Laine will side a little bit more towards being able to keep a contending team together over getting every last cent.

I certainly don't know him personally, but he seems the type to want a winning team over being the highest paid.

At least I hope so! :)
 

Farmboy Patty

Senior Hockey Analyst
Nov 2, 2017
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I sure hope that Laine says no thanks in case he gets lowballed by Chevy. However, I don't think that Chevy would do that. Goal scorers like Laine just don't come around that often, and I'm sure that he gets it. Most GM's never get to face the pleasant dilemma when a generational talent lands in your lap at the draft. If Laine becomes too expensive, then trade him. The buyers would be lining up the second he becomes available.
 

Howard Chuck

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You said earlier "there really isn't any recency bias". But there's always recency bias around here!!
It seemed to me that there were a lot of armchair GMs offering huge amounts of money, and placing our franchise at some risk, based in part on a hot streak. That's not how I would operate.

Try this instead:

"We like you a lot, Patrik, and you seem happy here. We think you have Ovechkin-like potential, but our team--your team-- comes first. We think you can be part of a SC contender for years to come, but we need to keep Nikki, Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor and Helle here too; maybe Trouba too, and maybe even offer Paul Stastny a UFA contract. You sort of like playing with him don't you? Well, we can't keep him and also pay you like McDavid. So, how about we offer you 60 million dollars over 8 years, 20 million over the first 2 years. Is that enough to keep you and your family happy?
Think about it....what, you've thought about it already?? You just want to play on a winner, score goals and play PlayStation with your good buds.....OK, great, sign here....."

Ok, I vote scelaton as contract negotiator!
 
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surixon

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So Laine played ~half a season in total out of two full seasons with Scheifele where Hall probably played mostly with Eberle (does anyone have any specifics on this by the way?), therefore Laine has some kind of an edge? Laine's most regular center has been Little not Scheifele, and there's no need to even go there. Furthermore Hall's points, let alone goals where never anywhere near Laine's despite of playing more minutes, so quite frankly I'm not sure where you coming with all this.

Laine is the leading goal scorer of the NHL since entering it. Hall has absolutely nothing equivalent in the resume and they absolutely are NOT in the same ballpark.



Laine has already passed Stamkos as the better goal scorer with era adjusted statistics and has 16 more games left to play. See for yourself:

One stat that puts Patrik Laine’s teenage years into legendary status - Article - BARDOWN

He will also outscore Stamkos in era adjusted total points barring an injury. So yeah, definitely tier if not four below pay wise! This example at least is a notch better than the one with Hall. I just wonder who comes next. :)

I understand the need to look for whatever possible statistics or data to justify a lower salary hit, but this is a bit ridiculous and certainly won't be determined at the HFboards.

Era adjusted points.... The goals per game are higher this season then Stamko's second season (There is nothing to adjust). Stamkos won a rocket his second season in the league (Laine might do it as well) Stamkos also finished 5th in total points Laine won' crack the top 20 this year. Stamkos had greater impact relative to his peers his second year in the league compared to Laine. No disrespect to Laine but Stamkos had a superior second season.
 
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Howard Chuck

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I sure hope that Laine says no thanks in case he gets lowballed by Chevy. However, I don't think that Chevy would do that. Goal scorers like Laine just don't come around that often, and I'm sure that he gets it. Most GM's never get to face the pleasant dilemma when a generational talent lands in your lap at the draft. If Laine becomes too expensive, then trade him. The buyers would be lining up the second he becomes available.

I can't think of a single instance of Chevy trying anything underhanded with the players. TNSE in general seems to bend over backwards for the players. I have exactly zero worry about this negotiation. I think they both want what is best for the player and the team. If anyone can work out an amicable deal it's Chevy and Laine.

...... I don't know about Laine's agent though.
 
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