Salary Cap: Laine's contract in 19/20

[Aavco Cup]

@allan5oh do you work for NHL.com?

 

[Board Bard]

I think the Jets are going to try to sign him for maximum term. And I think it's really easy to compare Laine to Ovechkin as a player. Therefore, we should expect to see a contract with similar numbers.

I'm going to guess it will take at least $10 million aav to sign Laine to a long term deal. And I think that's a fair market rate. If Chevy can get it done for less than $10m, he's a genius.

I also was thinking of Ovechkin numbers. I think that has a symmetry that would appeal to Laine.

 

[robertocarlos]

If Laine wants to one up Ehlers then Laine should sign for 9 million a year and then play that Hendrix song If Six Was Nine.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Will be interesting to see if Laine will feel like he has to take less than he could get because the 2 other young stars are only at 6m deals

 

[scelaton]

I'd be shocked if he is signed for $10Mx8.
A month ago he was not worth any more than Ehlers, based on his 5v5 P/60 and defensive play. This current streak 5x5 is great, but not a reason to undermine the internal economics of a team built for SC contention over many years.
It is generally accepted that Patrik's goal is also to win a SC and that requires a balanced approach to our many great players. If I were Chevy, I would offer him 8 years in term, front load the contract as much as possible so that Patrik and his family were quickly made financially secure for the rest of their lives, then reduce the back end of the contract to the limits of the CBA.
Eg, 10/10/7.5/7.5/7.5/7.5/5/5....AAV=7.5

 

[Critical Mass]

Will be interesting to see if Laine will feel like he has to take less than he could get because the 2 other young stars are only at 6m deals

I think the NHLPA would have something to say to him if he ended up agreeing to a materially undervalued deal. Factor in the Winnipeg market and his desire to stay here, he's still not going to be signing in the $6.5m range.

 

[Channelcat]

I'd be shocked if he is signed for $10Mx8.
A month ago he was not worth any more than Ehlers, based on his 5v5 P/60 and defensive play. This current streak 5x5 is great, but not a reason to undermine the internal economics of a team built for SC contention over many years.
It is generally accepted that Patrik's goal is also to win a SC and that requires a balanced approach to our many great players. If I were Chevy, I would offer him 8 years in term, front load the contract as much as possible so that Patrick and his family were quickly made financially secure for the rest of their lives, then reduce the back end of the contract to the limits of the CBA.
Eg, 10/10/7.5/7.5/7.5/7.5/5/5.

I agree that there is a recency bias. I recall when many people on this board were saying we'd need to pay Buff 10M$. Laine is amazing and I'm a huge fan, but the numbers being thrown around are way high. Furthermore, I don't think we can pay any one player 10M$ and still be a contender. If that money is better spend elsewhere, then I would do it.

 

[Daximus]

The bar has been set for high end centers. But not wingers yet really. Kane is the closest and he only got his big contract after winning 3 cups.

 

[surixon]

I agree that there is a recency bias. I recall when many people on this board were saying we'd need to pay Buff 10M$. Laine is amazing and I'm a huge fan, but the numbers being thrown around are way high. Furthermore, I don't think we can pay any one player 10M$ and still be a contender. If that money is better spend elsewhere, then I would do it.

There really isn't any recency bias imo. At the end of this year he will have back to back 35 plus goal seasons and a career ppg around .9. Not sure why people are bringing up Ehlers as his accomplishments when he signed his extension weren't in the same stratosphere as Laine's. Expecting Laine to come in around Ehlers deal is just not realistic as he's shown to be in a different class.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The bar has been set for high end centers. But not wingers yet really. Kane is the closest and he only got his big contract after winning 3 cups.

The bar was at a much lower level than it is now when Kane came off his ELC.

 

[Daximus]

The bar was at a much lower level than it is now when Kane came off his ELC.

True but it's pretty tough to gauge. Wingers usually get less than centers regardless of how good they are. I think 10 mil is a bit of a stretch even for a top young winger. 8 mil is a solid range.

 

[Aavco Cup]

There really isn't any recency bias imo. At the end of this year he will have back to back 35 plus goal seasons and a career ppg around .9. Not sure why people are bringing up Ehlers as his accomplishments when he signed his extension weren't in the same stratosphere as Laine's. Expecting Laine to come in around Ehlers deal is just not realistic as he's shown to be in a different class.

He'll also be among a select group of players that actually achieved schedule B bonus money. It's a really small group. To be top ten in the league in any of those categories would give a player so much leverage in arbitration. Ehlers didn't and still doesn't have the same bargaining leverage. Probably never will.

 

[Aavco Cup]

True but it's pretty tough to gauge. Wingers usually get less than centers regardless of how good they are. I think 10 mil is a bit of a stretch even for a top young winger. 8 mil is a solid range.

Ovi did sign 13 x $9.5M with a much lower cap

I can see 8 x $9.5M

 

[Daximus]

Ovi did sign 13 x $9.5M

Well if that is the comp he's signing for league max. Highly unlikely.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Well if that is the comp he's signing for league max. Highly unlikely.

You can't do a deal like that anymore. But it would be paying him like his idol would it not?

 

[Channelcat]

There really isn't any recency bias imo. At the end of this year he will have back to back 35 plus goal seasons and a career ppg around .9. Not sure why people are bringing up Ehlers as his accomplishments when he signed his extension weren't in the same stratosphere as Laine's. Expecting Laine to come in around Ehlers deal is just not realistic as he's shown to be in a different class.

Only in terms of goals. Lets not forget he's 27th in points and fairly average defensively. Plus he's a winger. Just trying to keep it real.

 

[kelsier]

I think the Jets are going to try to sign him for maximum term. And I think it's really easy to compare Laine to Ovechkin as a player. Therefore, we should expect to see a contract with similar numbers.

I'm going to guess it will take at least $10 million aav to sign Laine to a long term deal. And I think that's a fair market rate. If Chevy can get it done for less than $10m, he's a genius.

I agree. Should they go into negotiation table today and Chevy reached for a long contract, that's what his agent would ask and what he would get (10 or 10+m/y). You simply cannot do much better than Laine has in such a short time. Should he chose to go under 10m/year then that is out of his own good will and of course, pocket.

 

[DRW204]

the contract comparisons between Laine and Matthews will be very interesting. If Laine keeps up this pace and wins/2nd to the Rocket, and has a strong PO showing, he could really flirt with 10M+ AAV. Matthews has proven a tad more in the NHL than Laine to date IMO, but Laines numbers are starting to become otherworldly. The next 16 games/POs/Awards season are going to tell a lot

 

[surixon]

Only in terms of goals. Lets not forget he's 27th in points and fairly average defensively. Plus he's a winger. Just trying to keep it real.

Ehlers has one top 30 place in points and a 38 point rookie season at the time of his deal. Laine will have back to nack 65 plus point seasons. Teams also tend to pay more for goals. I like Ehlers but Laine is ahead of him from an overall production standpoint heading into the summer and has more leverae in terms of accomplishments. His comps are the Taresenkos and Gudreaus of the world.

 

[TheDeuce]

I think the NHLPA would have something to say to him if he ended up agreeing to a materially undervalued deal. Factor in the Winnipeg market and his desire to stay here, he's still not going to be signing in the $6.5m range.

I've heard this sentiment expressed before and I'm skeptical that the NHLPA has any bearing on an individual negotiation. If a player wants to sign for less that's his business, no? The NHLPA might not like it but there's nothing they can do about it.



m.

 

[GNP]

In a way it isn't good for the Jet's that Laine has went on this scoring binge, as it will cost a lot more to sign him. I think they were hoping to get lucky, as with Scheif, and hoped he had a mediocre season, and sign him for $ 7 to $ 7.5 mil- long term.

Now he'll likely score 45-50 goals this year, and it's gonna cost big bucs $$$ I'd like to see him sign in the $ 8 to $ 8.5 mil range, but it may be around $ 9 mil-long term.

Be nice if they could sign him for about $ 8.5 mil, over 8 years, or something like that.

The "good thing" about Laine's recent scoring, is the Jet's are winning.

NOTE - The signing of Laine could mean waiving "good bye" to Buff - and we need Buff !!!

 

[Vekke]

Laine might be tricky one. If he is going to get something huge then others might start asking also. It might cause a domino effect. One thing is sure, this season and next one will be crucial SC wise.

 

[Wizard204]

Only in terms of goals. Lets not forget he's 27th in points and fairly average defensively. Plus he's a winger. Just trying to keep it real.

Honestly I don’t get how people keep saying he is average defensively. He is winning board battles, chipping the puck out and always one of the first forwards to backcheck. He isn’t more of a defensive liability than ehlers, wheeler, conner and roslovic. Yes he had a rough beginning to the season but even then he isn’t as bad defensively as people here are making him out to be.

Also you are making it seem like 27th in points is a bad thing.

 

[Tommigun]

I agree that there is a recency bias. I recall when many people on this board were saying we'd need to pay Buff 10M$. Laine is amazing and I'm a huge fan, but the numbers being thrown around are way high. Furthermore, I don't think we can pay any one player 10M$ and still be a contender. If that money is better spend elsewhere, then I would do it.

He has had more goals than any other player since entering the league as an 18-year old. You guys are severely underselling him right now. Let me repeat that, he’s produced the most goals in the entire league since he entered it. How can those numbers be way high? I really hope he takes a team-friendly deal but what you guys are saying is a bit ridiculous.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Honestly I don’t get how people keep saying he is average defensively. He is winning board battles, chipping the puck out and always one of the first forwards to backcheck. He isn’t more of a defensive liability than ehlers, wheeler, conner and roslovic. Yes he had a rough beginning to the season but even then he isn’t as bad defensively as people here are making him out to be.

Also you are making it seem like 27th in points is a bad thing.

What you described sounds very much like someone who is average defensively. Makes mistakes but has the basics down. Ehlers, Connor etc are pretty average as well.