Kyrou signed for 2 years @ 2.8M AAV

Ginger Papa

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Hi everyone,

Nice number for a player that I’m excited to see in your lineup over a full season. Really interested how the Blues will look with this new core group coming of age. Hopefully Thomas has a bounce back Season, he’s one of my favourites on your Team.

Some memes in celebration of the Signing…
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Mike Liut

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It seemed like the first half the year every time he stepped on the ice, he created a good scoring chance. He’s an exciting player to watch for sure. I have high hopes for him and Thomas too.
 

Majorityof1

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I am pretty happy with this signing. Wish it was a little longer though because I think Kyrou is going to become 60+ point guy. It would have been nice to have a couple of more cheap years.

We couldn't have gone anymore. 4 years walks him right to UFA at 27 years old. 3 years is doable. However, we risk him taking us to arbitration for 1 year and walking at 27 anyway. With 2 years of RFA left, we have more leverage to negotiate his next deal.
 
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Brian39

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We can't walk away from a Sanford arbitration award unless the AAV is greater than $4.5M. If Sanford gets a number we don't like then we are stuck with the contract (although we could still trade him).

But I'm not at all concerned about making the cap work. Sunny might start on LTIR because his "re-evaluation" date isn't until the start of training camp. He will be 6 months post-torn-ACL at that point, so there is a pretty decent chance that he won't be ready to start the year. Even if he is fit to play, I wouldn't mind a month of him skating to strengthen the surrounding muscles and be extra careful. If we are in a genuine cap crunch, the league will almost certainly allow it. Sanford shouldn't be a problem to move if we can't make his number work because he's not going to get an albatross deal in arbitration. He may not return value in a trade, but I'd be surprised if we couldn't find a team to take him for nothing.

Army has repeatedly proven to be very, very skilled at maneuvering around the cap rules to buy himself time and get all the deals done at a number that fits. I think there is a less than 1% chance that he has signed (and announced) these last couple deals without a concrete plan to make it work with Tarasenko on the roster to start the season. Nothing about his tenure as a GM in this league suggests that he would unwittingly back himself into a corner that he doesn't want to be in by RFAs without arbitration rights.
 

GoldenSeal

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We can't walk away from a Sanford arbitration award unless the AAV is greater than $4.5M. If Sanford gets a number we don't like then we are stuck with the contract (although we could still trade him).

But I'm not at all concerned about making the cap work. Sunny might start on LTIR because his "re-evaluation" date isn't until the start of training camp. He will be 6 months post-torn-ACL at that point, so there is a pretty decent chance that he won't be ready to start the year. Even if he is fit to play, I wouldn't mind a month of him skating to strengthen the surrounding muscles and be extra careful. If we are in a genuine cap crunch, the league will almost certainly allow it. Sanford shouldn't be a problem to move if we can't make his number work because he's not going to get an albatross deal in arbitration. He may not return value in a trade, but I'd be surprised if we couldn't find a team to take him for nothing.

Army has repeatedly proven to be very, very skilled at maneuvering around the cap rules to buy himself time and get all the deals done at a number that fits. I think there is a less than 1% chance that he has signed (and announced) these last couple deals without a concrete plan to make it work with Tarasenko on the roster to start the season. Nothing about his tenure as a GM in this league suggests that he would unwittingly back himself into a corner that he doesn't want to be in by RFAs without arbitration rights.

Army's got something up his sleeve, that's obvious af. If Sanford wants the money, maybe he's being packaged with 91 to upgrade? I think the rumors have heated up suddenly with other teams because Army added something of value not just to get players back but maybe even to get Cap so we can sign who we have and get something for Sanford? 7.5m off the books would open the door wide for us right now.

Maybe Sign and Trade him?

Just a thought. I'm waiting to see how Army approaches it.
 

Mike Liut

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Kyrou will lead the Blues in goals with 28, two ahead of Buchnevich at 26. ROR, Schenn and Perron will be around 25 and Saad at 23. Thomas, Kostin and Sanford will be around 20

Do you want this weeks lotto numbers too?
 

Falco Lombardi

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I think we have to be somewhat careful of repeating our Dunn situation. While we definitely wanted to move on from Dunn at a certain point because of his play, I'm sure Dunn's camp was looking forward to a change of scenery too.

I don’t disagree but Thomas will presumably have a chance at minutes and a role that Dunn was never going to be trusted with
 

tfriede2

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Kyrou will lead the Blues in goals with 28, two ahead of Buchnevich at 26. ROR, Schenn and Perron will be around 25 and Saad at 23. Thomas, Kostin and Sanford will be around 20

Do you want this weeks lotto numbers too?
If Thomas and Kostin are around 20, we’ll be tops in scoring in the West. I’m thinking 10 each
 
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The Note

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Kyrou will lead the Blues in goals with 28, two ahead of Buchnevich at 26. ROR, Schenn and Perron will be around 25 and Saad at 23. Thomas, Kostin and Sanford will be around 20

Do you want this weeks lotto numbers too?
This is 212-ish (give or take a couple accounting for the "around" in there) goals from 9 guys. For reference, the Avs were the highest scoring team in the league last year and averaged 3.5 GF/G, which would be 288 goals over 82 games. Going back to the last full season the Blues had, they only scored 240 goals total, in the COVID stoppage season, they were on pace for 257 over 82. Hope springs eternal I guess but I don't see this team possessing as much firepower as you have here. I think some of the projections you laid out are reasonable (Perron, ROR, Saad) but there is a lot of projection in the others, particularly Thomas/Kostin/Sanford.
 

Brian39

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Sanford won't touch 4.5 in arbitration though. Could easily see something we don't like though.
I definitely wasn't suggesting that Sanford might actually reach $4.5M. That is simply the threshold where a team can choose to walk away from an arbitration award. His award will be less than that, so we won't be allowed to simply walk away from it. I agree with you that he has a decent chance of getting an award that we don't like. That's why I wouldn't have qualified him (after trying to trade him for something obviously).
 

Brian39

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Kyrou will lead the Blues in goals with 28, two ahead of Buchnevich at 26. ROR, Schenn and Perron will be around 25 and Saad at 23. Thomas, Kostin and Sanford will be around 20

Do you want this weeks lotto numbers too?
I think all of these are reasonable individual predictions, but it is unreasonable to think that all of them are likely. That's six 20+ goal scorers with another 3 guys getting near 20. There just aren't enough goals to go around for that.

14 goals this season is the equivalent of 20 goals in an 82 game season. Colorado had 6 guys with 14+ and their 8th and 9th best forwards scored 10 (14.6 goal pace). The Pens had 4 guys with 14+. Vegas had 7 guys with 14+, but then saw a large dip after that (8 and 6 goals from #8 and #9). Florida had 6 guys with 14+, but then saw a steep drop (10, 7 and 6 out of the next 3 forwards). Washington had 4 guys score 14+. Those were the top 5 highest scoring teams in the NHL last season. I also want to include Tampa, since they had an incredible 3rd line. They had 6 forwards score 14+ goals and their 8th and 9th forwards scored 9 goals (13 goal pace).

Your prediction would put us as a top 5 offense in the league with a near-unheard-of level of production from the middle 6. I agree with you that we are going to have a good offense that will have 4-7 guys who score 20+. I also think that we can be a top 10 offense in the league without a 30+ goal guy. But there will be some drop off in production after the top 6-7 scorers that will prevent everyone in the top 9 from approaching the 20 goal mark. There just aren't enough goals to go around (and luck to avoid injuries) for everyone in the top 9 to pot 15+.
 

Brian39

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I don’t disagree but Thomas will presumably have a chance at minutes and a role that Dunn was never going to be trusted with
I don't have much concern about negotiations souring Thomas on the organization. Even excluding on-ice usage, there are massive differences between Dunn and Thomas.

Thomas just turned 22. He is a 3 year NHL veteran, but he is also very young and started making an NHL salary quickly. He started making an NHL salary as a 19 year old and we know he hit some of his bonuses over the last 2 years. He topped the $1M earnings mark before turning 20 and he made at least $3M in his career before his 22nd birthday. He also got the kid gloves treatment as such a young NHLer, living rent-free with an alum and getting NHL perks as a rookie (no busses, per diems, etc).

Dunn spent his first pro year in the AHL making $70k (on top of his $90k signing bonus). This caused his ELC to slide, putting off the time he could earn his 2nd contract for another year. While Thomas got paid his first million as a teenager, Dunn didn't hit that mark until around his 22nd birthday. He hit RFA a couple months before his 24th birthday and had made roughly $2.5M playing pro hockey. He also rode the bus in the AHL in his first pro year and was responsible for finding his own place to live. Simply put, by the time he hit RFA, Dunn had "paid his dues" in a way that Thomas never had to. The development path chosen for him by the Blues limited his earning potential much more than it did for Thomas and that absolutely impacts what a guy expects from his next payday.

On top of that, Dunn didn't have a big question mark season in the year leading up to his negotiation. He took a small step back in terms of production, but still put up great possession numbers and stayed healthy. Thomas had by far the worst season of his career that was impacted by some unknown degree by an injury. He has more incentive (and earnings potential) to look for a 1 year prove it deal than Dunn did.

Thomas is 2 years younger than Dunn was, has earned more money than Dunn had (at comparable ages and off his total ELC) and he has more financial incentive to take a 1 year prove it deal than Dunn had. Negotiations should start in a better place, there is more common ground and the roster shows a much clearer path for Thomas to play himself into a $5M+ role than Dunn had after we signed Krug long-term. I'm not worried about souring the relationship with a just-turned-22 Robert Thomas. We have 4 more years of team control and if he develops into the guy we think he'll be then this negotiation will be a distant memory by the time that bill comes due.
 

joe galiba

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I am calling for 10 with 20+
we did it once, we can do it again


we also had paul maclain (324 career goals) and joe mullen (502 career goals) in the minors that year
 
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Mike Liut

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babych, pettersson, sutter, turnbull, federko, zuke, currie, patey, dunlop, chapman

I am calling for 10 with 20+
we did it once, we can do it again


we also had paul maclain (324 career goals) and joe mullen (502 career goals) in the minors that year



if all play 82, it very well could happen.
 

Blueston

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babych, pettersson, sutter, turnbull, federko, zuke, currie, patey, dunlop, chapman

I am calling for 10 with 20+
we did it once, we can do it again


we also had paul maclain (324 career goals) and joe mullen (502 career goals) in the minors that year
Have you seen goalies from back then? I coulda scored 10. And I was like 8 and can’t skate.
 

joe galiba

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Have you seen goalies from back then? I coulda scored 10. And I was like 8 and can’t skate.

you would have to use the wood sticks from back then with no whip and almost no curve so it all evened out


plus the stacked pads and stick saves from back then are pretty cool
 
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