Value of: Kyle Turris and Craig Smith

[maplepred]

Craig Smith is always a 20 goal scorer, Turris has always been a 50 point centre but had a bad year last year. He is looking like his old self so far this season. Nashville's predicament though is that we need another top six winger. We have Granlund - Duchene - Forsberg line, but Joey and Arvy need a legit winger. I wish they would just give Turris a shot at top six winger.

Who would be available potentially? We can also add high pick (s) or prospects for the right guy. Any suggestions? Just curious.

I think Smith walks in free agency anyways, and if we move him now, we still have a very solid bottom six of Bonino and Sissons as the centres, and Watson, Jarnkrok, Grimaldi and Carr/Pitlick/Tolvanen.

Just curious what kind of winger we could acquire, if we move Turris and Smith in a deal, the salary coming back does not matter at all.

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[rosscow]

Turris is a cap dump and Smith is not close enough as an incentive to even get rid of him. You will have to add a lot to get back a top 6 forward

 

[DingDongCharlie]

What teams out there could even absorb those contracts with moving out a winger?

Turris is a decent piece but 6 more years left, that’s just not at all enticing for anyone. The add would have to be a high end prospect.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Other than you’d have a line of 3 right shot players on the same line, why wouldn’t you put Jarnkrok on the 2nd line? He’s very underutilized as a defensive forward mainly. To me he seems like the perfect compliment to that line.

 

[The Nuge]

For Kyle Turris? Maybe Loui Eriksson or Kyle Okposo

 

[deckercky]

Deal with them for now. Pay Seattle to take them both and let them be Seattle's version of Marchessault/Smith.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

We can also add high pick (s) or prospects for the right guy. Any suggestions?

Taylor Hall has to be an obvious thought here, obviously depending on the + (not sure Kyle Turris moves the needle compared to what the Devils could get) and who else is in competition for him. If you're looking for term or you think the Devils will fare well by the deadline, then obviously acquiring him is not feasible.

 

[Mick Jagr]

If the cap space was available, I'd welcome Craig Smith on the Pens. Underrated player. Love his game.

 

[herzausstein]

Best chance would be move them separately (though I’d rather keep turris) and try and get Hoffman if his team continues to flounder

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

Smith for Bjugstad

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Cap is too valuable right now. Look at the Namestnikov trade. Nobody is taking Craig Smith unless it's in a swap for another player. He will be marketable as a trade piece at the deadline after Nashville has paid a huge chunk of his cap hit, and a team acquiring him only has to take the remainder of his cap.

Nobody is taking Turris unless term in the form of a different contract is going back to Nashville. 5 years is a very long time to commit top 6 money to a player just on the hope that they bounce back. Not to mention, Turris is entering his 30's. He has always had difficulties keeping size and weight on. Given that we have evidence that he is already on the decline, I don't think teams are going to want to risk that a player signed until they are 35 will trend any differently.

From the Senators perspective, the bad contract we have is Bobby Ryan. I am not even sure that I'd want Ottawa to swap Ryan for Turris. The Sens are terrible now, so I don't care if Turris might be an upgrade on Ryan. I wouldn't want to swap 3 years of bad money for 5 years of bad money. It just doesn't make much sense.

 

[maplepred]

What teams out there could even absorb those contracts with moving out a winger?

Turris is a decent piece but 6 more years left, that’s just not at all enticing for anyone. The add would have to be a high end prospect.

We can retain cap as well because I do understand it is a lot of cap to trade. Mind you the guy we got back would not matter his contract really as we would clear up a ton of space.

Someone above mentioned Taylor Hall, We could add a first and Tolvanen or something, let us resign him before a trade? Just spitballing..

 

[maplepred]

Cap is too valuable right now. Look at the Namestnikov trade. Nobody is taking Craig Smith unless it's in a swap for another player. He will be marketable as a trade piece at the deadline after Nashville has paid a huge chunk of his cap hit, and a team acquiring him only has to take the remainder of his cap.

Nobody is taking Turris unless term in the form of a different contract is going back to Nashville. 5 years is a very long time to commit top 6 money to a player just on the hope that they bounce back. Not to mention, Turris is entering his 30's. He has always had difficulties keeping size and weight on. Given that we have evidence that he is already on the decline, I don't think teams are going to want to risk that a player signed until they are 35 will trend any differently.

From the Senators perspective, the bad contract we have is Bobby Ryan. I am not even sure that I'd want Ottawa to swap Ryan for Turris. The Sens are terrible now, so I don't care if Turris might be an upgrade on Ryan. I wouldn't want to swap 3 years of bad money for 5 years of bad money. It just doesn't make much sense.

Turris is a lot better than Ryan, by miles.
Turris has one bad year man..

 

[danielpalfredsson]

What teams out there could even absorb those contracts with moving out a winger?

Turris is a decent piece but 6 more years left, that’s just not at all enticing for anyone. The add would have to be a high end prospect.

The only way Turris gets moved is for another long bad contract.

After the Lucic/Neal swap took them off the table, I can't think of any players with bad term/cap hit equivalent to Turris. There are some with less term like:

Eriksson 3 x 6 (VAN)
Ryan 3 x 7.25 (OTT)
Schneider 3 x 6 (NJD)

Over the lifetime of the contracts involved, Nashville would be asking VAN or NJD to take on 12M in bad cap, or they'd be asking Ottawa to take on 8.25M. It cost Toronto a 1st in a very strong 2020 draft to move a few million dollars in real cash and 6.25M in dead cap. Nashville isn't going to give these teams two 1st rounders to move out from Turris, these teams won't accept Turris' term without a huge addition, meaning a trade won't ever happen. There's no incentive from either side.

Ottawa is the most likely candidate because the added cap is the lowest, and the Senators might value lowering their salary in the short term even if it means adding long term bad cap. But there is also baggage there with Turris and the "lolgate", so it might not be realistic. It would have to be something like Turris, a 2020 1st, and another asset for Bobby Ryan. At that point, shouldn't Nashville just buyout Turris and eat the 18.6M+ of dead cap that would be spread over 8 seasons? (2M per season along with at least 650k+ to fill the roster spot for the four years Turris would have been under contract and presumably taking up a roster spot).

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Turris is a lot better than Ryan, by miles.
Turris has one bad year man..

Look at the cap landscape.

This isn't a Sens fan coming in and trying to "win" some fantasy trade board stuff. For example, I've told Sens fans on the Sens board that I think Ryan would be impossible to unload at HALF RETAINED.

This is just the reality of the cap era.

Teams are NOT taking a risk on players with cap hits and term. They just can't do it. It's way too risky. Teams don't care that it's just 1 bad season and 1 mediocre season. They don't care that Turris is 3 years removed from being Ottawa's top line center. All they look at is the possible burden of having a declining ectomorphic center on the books for the next 5 seasons at 6 million. The upside of Turris bouncing back is not worth the risk of being anchored with that contract. There's no incentive for a team to take him.

The Namestnikov trade is a great example of how difficult it is to unload cap. He was reportedly available for a long time. The only team that bit was the rebuilding Senators. The Rangers had to basically give away a productive middle 6 forward because his (retained) cap hit was 3.25M. That's an expiring contract.

Show me a recent example of a team moving an under performing player with term like Turris? The only examples are trades like Lucic for Neal or Clarkson for Horton where there is a strong cap or financial element that offsets the burden of the team taking the contract.

This is the reality, the Preds are stuck with a huge chunk of the Turris cap hit. There's no way out of it if he remains healthy enough to play. They might find a swap of bad contracts, but they won't get out of the entire cap. Turris could put up 50 points this season, it won't matter one bit. NOBODY is taking the risk of that contract just for the upside of getting a 2C. People need to understand that cap is an asset just like draft picks, prospects, or other players. So even proposing a team take Turris for "free", the actual cost is not free. The cost is 30 million in cap. That's a tremendous cost for a player who appears that he might be on the decline.

 

[maplepred]

Look at the cap landscape.

This isn't a Sens fan coming in and trying to "win" some fantasy trade board stuff. For example, I've told Sens fans on the Sens board that I think Ryan would be impossible to unload at HALF RETAINED.

This is just the reality of the cap era.

Teams are NOT taking a risk on players with cap hits and term. They just can't do it. It's way too risky. Teams don't care that it's just 1 bad season and 1 mediocre season. They don't care that Turris is 3 years removed from being Ottawa's top line center. All they look at is the possible burden of having a declining ectomorphic center on the books for the next 5 seasons at 6 million. The upside of Turris bouncing back is not worth the risk of being anchored with that contract. There's no incentive for a team to take him.

The Namestnikov trade is a great example of how difficult it is to unload cap. He was reportedly available for a long time. The only team that bit was the rebuilding Senators. The Rangers had to basically give away a productive middle 6 forward because his (retained) cap hit was 3.25M. That's an expiring contract.

Show me a recent example of a team moving an under performing player with term like Turris? The only examples are trades like Lucic for Neal or Clarkson for Horton where there is a strong cap or financial element that offsets the burden of the team taking the contract.

This is the reality, the Preds are stuck with a huge chunk of the Turris cap hit. There's no way out of it if he remains healthy enough to play. They might find a swap of bad contracts, but they won't get out of the entire cap. Turris could put up 50 points this season, it won't matter one bit. NOBODY is taking the risk of that contract just for the upside of getting a 2C. People need to understand that cap is an asset just like draft picks, prospects, or other players. So even proposing a team take Turris for "free", the actual cost is not free. The cost is 30 million in cap. That's a tremendous cost for a player who appears that he might be on the decline.

If Turris puts up 50 points why would he have no trade value? A lot of teams would want a 50 point centre making $6 million a year, which is about accurate for a 2/3 line centre anyways. The dude had one bad year as I said, I do not think he has negative trade value. He is looking like his old self again this season playing quite well, and was great for Team Canada this offseason as well as their captain. I think you are being a little hard on Turris after one day season, it is not like he is 38 years old, he is only 30. Turris has always been very reliable and also well liked among teammates. Definitely worth a ton more than Ryan lol. He is not a cap dump, unless he has another bad year like last which does not look like it will be the case. He is playing very hard out there.

 

[BKarchitect]

Smith is a solid player I’m surprised he’s viewed so lowly here and confused as to why the Preds who need wing scoring depth for a run this season would move him when you’d just have to replace his production at the trade deadline anyways. I mean, view him as a nice versatile rental who already fits with the team and then let him walk if you want next summer when Tolvanen is ready.

I guess if you really wanted to trade him, there would be no shortage of suitors for a guy who is a guaranteed 20-25 goals and is a good versatile teammate with an expiring contract. Lots of good teams would be happy to add that kind of player for a run.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If Turris puts up 50 points why would he have no trade value? A lot of teams would want a 50 point centre making $6 million a year, which is about accurate for a 2/3 line centre anyways. The dude had one bad year as I said, I do not think he has negative trade value. He is looking like his old self again this season playing quite well, and was great for Team Canada this offseason as well as their captain. I think you are being a little hard on Turris after one day season, it is not like he is 38 years old, he is only 30. Turris has always been very reliable and also well liked among teammates. Definitely worth a ton more than Ryan lol. He is not a cap dump, unless he has another bad year like last which does not look like it will be the case. He is playing very hard out there.

Teams would not want to risk taking on that cap and term by acquiring Turris next off season. The upside of a 50 point 2nd line center is not worth the downside of having a useless 30 point center taking up 24 million of cap over 4 years.

There's not much else I can say. I don't think there are any examples of recent trades that support what you're stating. I also don't think we're going to agree, so it's fine if we agree to disagree.

 

[maplepred]

Smith is a solid player I’m surprised he’s viewed so lowly here and confused as to why the Preds who need wing scoring depth for a run this season would move him when you’d just have to replace his production at the trade deadline anyways. I mean, view him as a nice versatile rental who already fits with the team and then let him walk if you want next summer when Tolvanen is ready.

I guess if you really wanted to trade him, there would be no shortage of suitors for a guy who is a guaranteed 20-25 goals and is a good versatile teammate with an expiring contract. Lots of good teams would be happy to add that kind of player for a run.

We have the forsberg duchene granlund line. And then we have joey and arvy. Smith is not on the same level as any of those guys. If Smith does not play with guys more talented than him he will not produce, as you can see from his one assist this season, and he played with joey and arvy to start season. That’s the problem, we need a legit top six winger to round out the top six.

 

[maplepred]

Teams would not want to risk taking on that cap and term by acquiring Turris next off season. The upside of a 50 point 2nd line center is not worth the downside of having a useless 30 point center taking up 24 million of cap over 4 years.

There's not much else I can say. I don't think there are any examples of recent trades that support what you're stating. I also don't think we're going to agree, so it's fine if we agree to disagree.

I believe the rangers just signed Hayes to a deal paying significantly more than what turris makes and for longer term as well. Hayes and turris are similar age but Hayes had never even had a 50 point season. How’s that for a good example?

Turris is a better and more complete player than Hayes and makes less. Again, only one bad season my friend. Laine had a bad year last year too and look at him now.

 

[Remember2004]

L oooooch?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think it's pretty obvious that there is no market for trading Smith or Turris right now that would fit with the Preds' priorities. We want to contend, and they are certainly useful players to us as well. It's just not the right time to deal them.

I'd trade Turris near the deadline or in the summer for a prospect or draft pick, or possibly for a useful player with significantly reduced term back, if such deals were available. But if it was a player, he would have to be seriously useful, and ideally just have 1 year of term left (i.e. not Eriksson or Okposo types). If that wasn't available, I'd just keep him. He's still a good player (in his fashion). Not an ideal use of the cap space for us, given our situation up the middle, but not somebody we should trade at negative value either.

I wouldn't trade Smith at all. I mean, unless in the unlikely event that we're just out of the playoff race at the trade deadline. But that doesn't seem too likely. Smith either re-signs with us for something on the order of 5x$5M or walks as a UFA if we don't have the cap space (signing Granlund may take priority over Smith).

I don't think there's any strong motivation or much likelihood of the Preds trading either of these players.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I believe the rangers just signed Hayes to a deal paying significantly more than what turris makes and for longer term as well. Hayes and turris are similar age but Hayes had never even had a 50 point season. How’s that for a good example?

Turris is a better and more complete player than Hayes and makes less. Again, only one bad season my friend. Laine had a bad year last year too and look at him now.

Hayes is 3 years younger than Turris.

Hayes is not an ectomorph (which would raise huge redflags about long term durability).

Hayes has never had a season after developing as bad as the seasons Turris has had with Nashville.

Hayes was a big player who became a UFA at the right time when a team filled with big brutes just won the cup. That also upped his value. It is a copy cat league, big players are coveted.

There's not anything more I can say. Find me a player with term, who is signed into their mid 30s, who has had as great of a decline as Turris. Then find me one who has been traded without it being a contract swap. Very simple task.

You will not be able to.

 

[justafan22]

Hayes is 3 years younger than Turris.

Hayes is not an ectomorph (which would raise huge redflags about long term durability).

Hayes has never had a season after developing as bad as the seasons Turris has had with Nashville.

Hayes was a big player who became a UFA at the right time when a team filled with big brutes just won the cup. That also upped his value. It is a copy cat league, big players are coveted.

There's not anything more I can say. Find me a player with term, who is signed into their mid 30s, who has had as great of a decline as Turris. Then find me one who has been traded without it being a contract swap. Very simple task.

You will not be able to.

The Leafs got to lottery protect their 1st, but the sentiment remains.

 

[maplepred]

Hayes is 3 years younger than Turris.

Hayes is not an ectomorph (which would raise huge redflags about long term durability).

Hayes has never had a season after developing as bad as the seasons Turris has had with Nashville.

Hayes was a big player who became a UFA at the right time when a team filled with big brutes just won the cup. That also upped his value. It is a copy cat league, big players are coveted.

There's not anything more I can say. Find me a player with term, who is signed into their mid 30s, who has had as great of a decline as Turris. Then find me one who has been traded without it being a contract swap. Very simple task.

You will not be able to.

To name a few just going back to June here:

Anisimov for Zack smith
Soderberg for connauton and a third
Niskanen for gudas


The point though is that turris is not on a decline and there has not been bad seasonS as you stated above it’s only been one season and he was injured. Before that he’s consistently a 50 plus point guy. All guy have a bad year once in a while, Laine last season for example.
Every time a guy has an off year he’s instantly “declining” and is a write off for the future?

Turris is looking good now that he is injury free, we just have too many centres is that problem when we could use someone better at wing. With josi contract and Granlund needing to be signed as well, Smith is gone after this season which is why I am suggesting using him with turris for an upgrade. And Preds can add picks or prospects if need be for the right guy.

A lot of teams would covet a 50 plus point centre making $6 million a year. A lot. Just needs to keep showing it was just an off year, I am confident he is doing just that.


You think Hayes is a better hockey player than turris? Honestly?