Proposal: Kuemper to Toronto

[Leaf Fans]

Exactly. You can make a valid argument that Darcy is the better goalie for sure, but the difference between the two is extremely minimal. Freddy regularly stands on his head and steals games for a team whose run and gun style of play is very unforgiving for a goalie and results in more high danger scoring chances against than most teams in the league. He's been a top 10 goalie in the league for the last few years.

Yes, it is extremely minimal.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I'm a Leafs fan.

Andersen might not be a pretty good goalie anymore, last season he was pretty bad.

Its not for one year, its for two years of an elite goalie at a good price.

It is an extreme overpayment for 2 years of better but not by much goal keeping.

 

[seanlinden]

Kuemper has been a lot better than Murray or Andersen over the past two years, if we need to debate that point then why do you even want to do the trade ? And in your scenario TOR does not spend anything to have a better goalie at a cheaper price for one more year ? Come on !

Better than Murray? yes absolutely. But Murray is 26 years old with 2 Stanley Cups, and has long term upside to be the #1 goalie for the Sens for a long time. He fits into the timing of their rebuild very well as well.

Better than Andersen? Depends on your context. He's played 75% of the games that Andersen has over the past 2 seasons, on a substantially better defensive team.

In 2018-19, Andersen was .4GAA and .015 Sv% better than his backup, in 19-20 Andersen was .8GAA and .023 sv% better than his backup. In 18-19 Kuemper was .5GAA and .022 sv% better than Raanta, who had very similar numbers to Hill. In 19-20, Kuemper was .4GAA and .007 sv% better than Raanta. Raanta's a better goalie than either Sparks or Hutchinson -- but you do have to be concerned that regardless of who plays net for the Coyotes, they all seem to put up really good numbers, whereas the guys who have played behind Andersen in the past 2 years have atrocious numbers.

It is very reasonable to believe that if Andersen had a competent backup, and/or played slightly fewer games, or a more defensive team infront of him, that his numbers would be much better than they are.

There is also the effect of the 2 years prior to the sample described above, where Andersen played 66 games each year and had very consistent .918 save percentages. Kuemper was a backup.

 

[seanlinden]

Also, according to Pierre Lebrun at the Athletic, the Canes are fine coming back with Mrazek and Reimer at this point and always were if they couldn't considerably upgrade.

The fact that despite Andersen being clearly available, they have continued to inquire about Keumper, and Fleury, and make a pitch to Markstrom tells me they don't find Andersen to be a "considerable upgrade" for the price he will command for one season of control.

All it says is that they couldn't come to a deal with the Leafs over Andersen... with the goalie market largely complete, Andersen doesn't become available unless at minimum a 1A goalie goes back to Toronto.

 

[AZviaNJ]

DK would make an excellent back up especially in our conference with the Knights having Fluery and Lehner

Kuemper is the best goaltender in the Pacific.

 

[GoldiFox]

Andersen wasn't even a top-30 goalie in 5v5 save % or GAA last year. Of the 41 goalies that played more than 1400 5v5 minutes Andersen was #33 in SV% (0.915) and #30 in GAA (2.59). Kuemper was #3 in 5v5 SV% (0.932) and GAA (2.05).

There is no debate about which one the Canes would prefer. Kuemper >>> Andersen in goal, contract term, and Cap hit.

I think the Canes would have their 2021 1st or possibly Bokk on the table in a Kuemper deal.

 

[MinJaBen]

Better than Murray? yes absolutely. But Murray is 26 years old with 2 Stanley Cups, and has long term upside to be the #1 goalie for the Sens for a long time. He fits into the timing of their rebuild very well as well.

Better than Andersen? Depends on your context. He's played 75% of the games that Andersen has over the past 2 seasons, on a substantially better defensive team.

In 2018-19, Andersen was .4GAA and .015 Sv% better than his backup, in 19-20 Andersen was .8GAA and .023 sv% better than his backup. In 18-19 Kuemper was .5GAA and .022 sv% better than Raanta, who had very similar numbers to Hill. In 19-20, Kuemper was .4GAA and .007 sv% better than Raanta. Raanta's a better goalie than either Sparks or Hutchinson -- but you do have to be concerned that regardless of who plays net for the Coyotes, they all seem to put up really good numbers, whereas the guys who have played behind Andersen in the past 2 years have atrocious numbers.

It is very reasonable to believe that if Andersen had a competent backup, and/or played slightly fewer games, or a more defensive team infront of him, that his numbers would be much better than they are.

There is also the effect of the 2 years prior to the sample described above, where Andersen played 66 games each year and had very consistent .918 save percentages. Kuemper was a backup.

You are making the case to keep Andersen. And yet, you don't want to....do you actually believe what you are arguing?

 

[Jerkbait]

Let's keep it simple. I like the Leafs skaters. I would like to upgrade on Freddy Andersen.

Andersen + 2021 1st (top 3 protected) for Kuemper

The Coyotes cut payroll with Andersen making only $1 million. They get a desperately needed 1st round pick and a competent starter if they want to try and make the playoffs. Or, an additional asset to flip at the deadline if things go badly.

The Leafs get a better starter with an extra year of control for $500k less against the cap. They lose a valuable 1st rounder, but I believe the 2021 draft seems a little weak and they already have a fairly deep prospect pool imo.

This is idiotic... move along ... no team wouod do this

 

[13pacheco31]

Andersen wasn't even a top-30 goalie in 5v5 save % or GAA last year. Kuemper was #3 in 5v5 save %.

There is no debate about which one the Canes would prefer. Kuemper >>> Andersen in goal, contract term, and Cap hit.

I think the Canes would have their 2021 1st or possibly Bokk on the table in a Kuemper deal.

Andersen has the heaviest work load on one of the worst defensive teams in the league, kuemper is basically a backup. How is this even a debate? And before you stop bashing my backup comment, tell me how many times has he played 40+ games in a season?

 

[GoldiFox]

Andersen has the heaviest work load on one of the worst defensive teams in the league, kuemper is basically a backup. How is this even a debate? And before you stop bashing my backup comment, tell me how many times has he played 40+ games in a season?

Yes and among Andersen's peer group of goalies with heavy workloads he was one of the worst in the league last year. Of the 14 goalies who played more than 2000 5v5 minutes Andersen was #11 last year in SV% and #10 in GAA. Playing a lot doesn't necessarily mean a goalie is good. David Rittich had similar stats with the same workload.

There is no debate. The Canes would prefer Kuemper 100/100 times. You seem to be confused about what the Canes goal is. In this trade the Canes would have both Mrazek and Kuemper. The Canes don't need a 50-60 game starter (although Kuemper started 55 games in 2018-19). They need a talented 1A/1B addition who is among the best goalies in the league in the games he plays. The regular season isn't the goal, the goal is to win a Cup. In his given chances Andersen has struggled to win Playoff series.

 

[seanlinden]

You are making the case to keep Andersen. And yet, you don't want to....do you actually believe what you are arguing?

Leafs cannot afford him beyond this year. That is the ONLY reason to move him.

Andersen is almost certainly going to see a large uptick in his numbers as the compressed schedule, presence of Jack Campbell reduce his workload, and with the defensive improvements the Leafs have made bringing in Brodie & Bogosian.

At that point, he's going to simply say:

"look at the deal Markstrom got in the worst UFA-situation since the salary cap came in"

and

"Heck, look at my numbers compared to Carey Price over the last 4-5 years"

And it's going to quickly become a number that the Leafs simply cannot afford. Probably to the tune of $6.5m x 5 years, or the same $6x6 deal that Markstrom got.

I would like the Leafs to pursue Kuemper, because I think the Leafs have a solid 1B guy in Jack Campbell, that can play more than Sparks/Hutchinson have, especially if Kuemper gets hurt; and because it saves Toronto $500k on the cap this year, and probably $2m on the cap next year, while buying the team 2 years to figure out a longer term solution in goal.

 

[the Chad Kilger]

lol at adding a first

 

[seanlinden]

Yes and among Andersen's peer group of goalies with heavy workloads he was one of the worst in the league last year. Of the 14 goalies who played more than 2000 5v5 minutes Andersen was #11 last year in SV% and #10 in GAA. Playing a lot doesn't necessarily mean a goalie is good. David Rittich had similar stats with the same workload.

There is no debate. The Canes would prefer Kuemper 100/100 times. You seem to be confused about what the Canes goal is. In this trade the Canes would have both Mrazek and Kuemper. The Canes don't need a 50-60 game starter (although Kuemper started 55 games in 2018-19). They need a talented 1A/1B addition who is among the best goalies in the league in the games he plays. The regular season isn't the goal, the goal is to win a Cup. In his given chances Andersen has struggled to win Playoff series.

You will find a direct inverse correlation between games/minutes played, and goalie numbers.

There were 15 goalies who played more than 2500 minutes last year. Not one of them had a GAA under 2.56, and only one of them had a Save Percentage above .918 (Hellebuyck).

You take goalies 16-30 (in terms of minutes played); and there are 3 guys over .920 (Bishop, Lehner, Rask), and 3 guys at 2.50 or under (Bishop, Rask, Hart).

When you get into goalies 31-45, it includes Francouz (2.41/.923), Halak (.919/2.39), Raanta (.921/2.63), Merzlikins (.923/2.35), Kuemper (.928/2.22), Khudobin (.930/2.22).

Most people realize that it's a lot tougher for a goalie to put up great numbers when they have huge workloads, part of the reason why Hellebuyck won the Vezina despite Rask having ridiculous numbers.

 

[XX]

Why are the Leafs paying an absolute premium to "upgrade" on Andersen with Kuemper? I would barely add anything to Andersen to get Kuemper. If this is the only trade available I would rather keep Andersen and hope he is motivated during his contract year to out perform his normal years. If you lose him next year, big deal. Looks like this is probably all going to happen again next year due to the flat cap so you might be able to snag a goalie next year for cheap as well.

I think Dubas would like to parlay his extras into one of the best starters in the league after the offseason he has had. Banking on Andersen returning to form doesn't seem super appetizing.

 

[Dustin]

I think Dubas would like to parlay his extras into one of the best starters in the league after the offseason he has had. Banking on Andersen returning to form doesn't seem super appetizing.

Kuemper has one season where he has played 50 or more games. Before we start anointing him "one of the best starters" perhaps he should have to do it more consistently.

Second off the exact same thing is going to happen next year in terms of Free Agency due to a flat cap and expansion. Again why are we paying an absolute premium for a position that has seen its stock drop since Covid and will be in the same situation a year from now?

 

[DougGilmour93]

Andersen>Kuemper

End of story.

 

[XX]

Second off the exact same thing is going to happen next year in terms of Free Agency due to a flat cap and expansion. Again why are we paying an absolute premium for a position that has seen its stock drop since Covid and will be in the same situation a year from now?

Kuemper is signed for next year. Not unlikely that Andersen is the best goalie on the FA market and walks to Markstrom money.

Not having to worry about it until 22-23 is more ideal. Saves a small amount of cap. Costs you mediocre picks/extras. It's not like the Coyotes would be asking for prime prospects. The novelty for them would be freeing up the cash right now to use on another forward.

 

[Dustin]

Kuemper is signed for next year. Not unlikely that Andersen is the best goalie on the FA market and walks to Markstrom money.

Not having to worry about it until 22-23 is more ideal. Saves a small amount of cap. Costs you mediocre picks/extras. It's not like the Coyotes would be asking for prime prospects. The novelty for them would be freeing up the cash right now to use on another forward.

Not according to the OP. There is no way the Leafs are trading their 1st plus Andersen for Kuemper just to hopefully have him stay the same goalie for a year. ONE YEAR because then we will be one year away again and I guess we could add our 1st to Kuemper then and grab another goalie for 2 years.

I think Kuemper is a great goalie and I'd be happy if the Leafs had him but I'm not going to spend any real assets on him. Not when Andersen hasn't really been the issue anyway. And even more so when like I said next year the goalie market will be up the air again

The Leafs probably feel the same way as the only trade we've really heard that involved Anderson was for a defenceman.

 

[Halla]

Leafs send Andersen only making 1mil this year and a 1st for Kuemper?

no thanks. Kuemper has had a solid year and a half but his numbers wouldnt be as great in TO. If the leafs were truly concerned about freddie (doubtful as dude gets .917+ every year minus ONE down year) they probably woulda made a play for Markstrom

 

[Halla]

Kuemper is signed for next year. Not unlikely that Andersen is the best goalie on the FA market and walks to Markstrom money.

Not having to worry about it until 22-23 is more ideal. Saves a small amount of cap. Costs you mediocre picks/extras. It's not like the Coyotes would be asking for prime prospects. The novelty for them would be freeing up the cash right now to use on another forward.

Markstrom money is 6mil. The leafs can easily absorb that

Andersen + Campbell = 6.65

next year Andersen + cheap backup (Dell maybe?) = 6.80

 

[JKG33]

so the leafs get a better, slightly cheaper goalie for nothing and ARI gets a way worse goalie for only a second ? Sure... no such thing as a free lunch. That is the kind of deal you would look for though.

More realistically, you would have

To Toronto:
- Kuemper
- 2nd CAR

To Carolina
- Andersen

To Arizona
- Reimer
- 1st TOR

That is more enticing to ARI, does not change anything for CAR, while TOR only goes back one round at the draft to improve from Kuemper to Andersen. Really if I am ARI mgmt, I have few assets with value, why would I trade Kuemper for less than a 1st ?

One problem with your proposal, Toronto isn't going to pay a draft pick so Carolina can turn Reimer into Andersen.

If anything Carolina trades Reimer and a 1st to Toronto for Andersen. Then Toronto trades Reimer, a 1st (whichever is the later pick between CAR and TOR) and maybe a 3rd to Arizona for Kuemper

 

[RationalExpectations]

One problem with your proposal, Toronto isn't going to pay a draft pick so Carolina can turn Reimer into Andersen.

If anything Carolina trades Reimer and a 1st to Toronto for Andersen. Then Toronto trades Reimer, a 1st (whichever is the later pick between CAR and TOR) and maybe a 3rd to Arizona for Kuemper

But then Ari czn trade directly with CAR as mentioned above

 

[Martin Skoula]

Markstrom money is 6mil. The leafs can easily absorb that

Andersen + Campbell = 6.65

next year Andersen + cheap backup (Dell maybe?) = 6.80

Why would we want to do that?

 

[Chrispy]

One problem with your proposal, Toronto isn't going to pay a draft pick so Carolina can turn Reimer into Andersen.

If anything Carolina trades Reimer and a 1st to Toronto for Andersen. Then Toronto trades Reimer, a 1st (whichever is the later pick between CAR and TOR) and maybe a 3rd to Arizona for Kuemper

Again: why wouldn't Carolina just go get the better goalie who is signed longer in this scenario.

There's no reason Carolina should pay a 1st for a rental goalie who hasnt been much better than Mrazek the past 2 seasons.

 

[JKG33]

But then Ari czn trade directly with CAR as mentioned above

Again: why wouldn't Carolina just go get the better goalie who is signed longer in this scenario.

There's no reason Carolina should pay a 1st for a rental goalie who hasnt been much better than Mrazek the past 2 seasons.

Then I dont think there's a deal to be had.

The first isn't just for Andersen. In this market it should cost a draft pick to dump Reimer, and if im Toronto im not paying that draft pick for Carolina.