Helene St. James Kris Draper on Drafting Rasmus Dahlin: "He’d change us overnight."

[Flowah]

He wouldn’t change us into playoff contenders overnight yes, But he changes the organizations future overnight.

Matthews, Crosby, Toews, Kane, didn't turn their teams into contenders immediately, but you can sure as shit know that they were in a position to be contenders much sooner than if they never got those players.

Does Dahlin make us a cup threat overnight? No. But it absolutely changes the direction of this team from downward to upward overnight. An 18 year old bonafide 1D that everyone is slobbering all over themselves for? The undisputed top pick of a strong draft class?

 

[BinCookin]

I guess we are getting hung up on definitions. We need 1-3 superstars to make our team "best in the league". It would be pretty awesome to get 1. Its a great start. And any superstar added to our roster changes the makeup and outlook of the team.

It would be pretty sweet to luck out and win the lottery. But we should all know our odds of such an event are extremely low.

Its much more likely we pick 5-7th.

 

[Frk It]

That is hogwash: adding one player, no matter how good he is, is not going to change everything "overnight." Adding Dahlin is a very big "if," anyway. He cannot play every shift on every line. Plus, no one knows whether this kid will actually make it in the NHL where the game is very different from where he has been playing so far. I think a lot of this is on the coach. If Blash is unable to come up with a system that utilizes the strong sides of the available players, he is no NHL coach.

I know the Oilers are having struggles and whatnot, but some feel that he is the d man equivalent of McDavid as a prospect... so just keep that in mind. Yeah defenseman are harder to project, but he is special.

 

[Redder Winger]

Fantasy scenario.

1) Draft Dahlin.
2) Sign Tavares.
3) Trade Nielsen, Howard and whoever else needs to go.
4) Sign Karlsson or Doughty or OEL after next year.

Now, that's a list of 4 hard f***ing steps.
But, there's your quick turn around plan.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Fantasy scenario.

1) Draft Dahlin.
2) Sign Tavares.
3) Trade Nielsen, Howard and whoever else needs to go.
4) Sign Karlsson or Doughty or OEL after next year.

Now, that's a list of 4 hard ****ing steps.
But, there's your quick turn around plan.

I would lurk those Toronto boards every day

 

[TheMule93]

I was thinking about that like an hour ago. I came to a conclusion that there was a 0% of being able to afford them both, though i never actually verified that. So if i were to choose one over the other, it would depend on whether or not we got Dahlin.

If we got Dahlin, i target Tavares. If we miss Dahlin i go for Karlsson. Scenario 1 would be the dream, but i'd be happy with 2 as well.

 

[Frk It]

Fantasy scenario.

1) Draft Dahlin.
2) Sign Tavares.
3) Trade Nielsen, Howard and whoever else needs to go.
4) Sign Karlsson or Doughty or OEL after next year.

Now, that's a list of 4 hard ****ing steps.
But, there's your quick turn around plan.

As long as we knock our next two first rounders out of the park, we'll be fine... and I like the way those draft classes are shaping up relative to what we need.

Someone like Dobson/Bouchard in 18', then someone like Hughes/Turcotte/Suzuki in 19' and we are sitting in a good spot.

I think we can be a pretty good team again by 2020, just going to need a little patience.

 

[Redder Winger]

I know the Oilers are having struggles and whatnot, but some feel that he is the d man equivalent of McDavid as a prospect... so just keep that in mind. Yeah defenseman are harder to project, but he is special.

This game doesn't produce D-man equivalents of McDavid and hasn't for a long time.
In the 70s, there was Bobby Orr - the game's last legend on defense.

Since then we've had Gretzky and Lemieux at center.
Crosby is at that legend level, even if he's a step and a half below. Lindros was on his way there until the concussions stole it from him.

McDavid could certainly be the next one.

ANd by legends, I mean players who are a threat to take over the game every shift. The guys you pay money to go watch.

The question with McDavid is, can he drag a team long with him.
Lindros would have done it eventually, I'd guess.

The best defensemen I ever watched were Larry Robinson, Nick Lidstrom and Chris Pronger.
All three are obvious Hall of Famers. But none of these guys, great as they were, rose to the level of the superstar centers.

I think Karlsson was kind of close to hitting that level last year. His ability to attack the opposition ... just the threat of it... changed games.

All that said, as we saw with Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, you can do a lot with a great 1-2 punch at defense. Nashville is kind of showing that again - although it's more of a 1-2-3-4 punch.

All that said, you take Dahlin - a potential franchise defenseman at #1 overall.

But you can spend a decade in the basement with a franchise defenseman. Just ask Yotes fans.

 

[Frk It]

This game doesn't produce D-man equivalents of McDavid and hasn't for a long time.
In the 70s, there was Bobby Orr - the game's last legend on defense.

Since then we've had Gretzky and Lemieux at center.
Crosby is at that legend level, even if he's a step and a half below. Lindros was on his way there until the concussions stole it from him.

McDavid could certainly be the next one.

ANd by legends, I mean players who are a threat to take over the game every shift. The guys you pay money to go watch.

The question with McDavid is, can he drag a team long with him.
Lindros would have done it eventually, I'd guess.

The best defensemen I ever watched were Larry Robinson, Nick Lidstrom and Chris Pronger.
All three are obvious Hall of Famers. But none of these guys, great as they were, rose to the level of the superstar centers.

I think Karlsson was kind of close to hitting that level last year. His ability to attack the opposition ... just the threat of it... changed games.

All that said, as we saw with Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, you can do a lot with a great 1-2 punch at defense. Nashville is kind of showing that again - although it's more of a 1-2-3-4 punch.

Right, there's a pretty good reason defenseman usually don't go #1. But Dahlin is doing pretty unprecedented things for his age. And he is (miles) ahead of two very good wingers in Svecnikov and Zadina for a reason.

FYI those weren't even my words, Craig Button said that... and I think I heard Bob McKenzie say people around the league feel that way about Dahlin on his podcast as well.

 

[Redder Winger]

As long as we knock our next two first rounders out of the park, we'll be fine... and I like the way those draft classes are shaping up relative to what we need.

Someone like Dobson/Bouchard in 18', then someone like Hughes/Turcotte/Suzuki in 19' and we are sitting in a good spot.

I think we can be a pretty good team again by 2020, just going to need a little patience.

Even if Dobson and Bouchard are the real deal - and there's some question about that - I just don't know that a turnaround happens without some high quality veteran help.

You take a look at Chicago - they had two things going for them.
1) The defense (Seabrook, Keith and Hjalmarsson) were older than the forwards, which is good because D take longer to develop,
2) Chicago signed a Marian Hossa. They signed Campbell.


If the Wings get lucky and land their kid in this year's draft, I'd love to see them go all-in for Tavares -- assuming he hits the market.

How do you do that?
I don't know. But it starts with clearing out cap space. And we're hitting a window to do that.

 

[Oddbob]

This game doesn't produce D-man equivalents of McDavid and hasn't for a long time.
In the 70s, there was Bobby Orr - the game's last legend on defense.

Since then we've had Gretzky and Lemieux at center.
Crosby is at that legend level, even if he's a step and a half below. Lindros was on his way there until the concussions stole it from him.

McDavid could certainly be the next one.

ANd by legends, I mean players who are a threat to take over the game every shift. The guys you pay money to go watch.

The question with McDavid is, can he drag a team long with him.
Lindros would have done it eventually, I'd guess.

The best defensemen I ever watched were Larry Robinson, Nick Lidstrom and Chris Pronger.
All three are obvious Hall of Famers. But none of these guys, great as they were, rose to the level of the superstar centers.

I think Karlsson was kind of close to hitting that level last year. His ability to attack the opposition ... just the threat of it... changed games.

All that said, as we saw with Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, you can do a lot with a great 1-2 punch at defense. Nashville is kind of showing that again - although it's more of a 1-2-3-4 punch.

All that said, you take Dahlin - a potential franchise defenseman at #1 overall.

But you can spend a decade in the basement with a franchise defenseman. Just ask Yotes fans.

We aren't the Coyotes, they have been wholly mismanaged for basically their entire run as a team. We on the other hand cheer for a team in a market that cares about the game, and has owners that despite what some others on this forum say, are into having a successful hockey team. All this negativity about our mismanaged team, and we have had less than 5 seasons of not being a very good team, and only two where we were quite bad. A Dahlin type player could turn that around in a quick swoop.

 

[Redder Winger]

Right, there's a pretty good reason defenseman usually don't go #1. But Dahlin is doing pretty unprecedented things for his age. And he is (miles) ahead of two very good wingers in Svecnikov and Zadina for a reason.

FYI those weren't even my words, Craig Button said that... and I think I heard Bob McKenzie say people around the league feel that way about Dahlin on his podcast as well.

I can see Dahlin being a lot like Doughty.
We need to find his Kopitar.

 

[Redder Winger]

We aren't the Coyotes, they have been wholly mismanaged for basically their entire run as a team. We on the other hand cheer for a team in a market that cares about the game, and has owners that despite what some others on this forum say, are into having a successful hockey team. All this negativity about our mismanaged team, and we have had less than 5 seasons of not being a very good team, and only two where we were quite bad. A Dahlin type player could turn that around in a quick swoop.

Aaron Eklbad is four years into his NHL career and looks like he's about to miss the playoffs again. And you look at his defense, he's got another good young defense in Matheson.


Darnell Nurse has all the tools of a franchise defenseman. He's sitting outside the playoffs.


Look at the 2012 draft if you want to see the perils of a "D-heavy draft." Those kids are 24 now.

So, sure, the team could turn it around just by drafting a Dahlin. It's possible.

But very unlikely. We've got need for more than 1 D. We've got more need than D. And D take longer to develop.

At the end of the day, the best way to develop a good young D is to have them play at a great defenseman and a great center - two things we don't have.

 

[pz29]

I would lurk those Toronto boards every day

Well, yeah, that would be sweet, but I didn't realize Tavares, Karlson, and Doughty were available.

 

[Redder Winger]

I was thinking about that like an hour ago. I came to a conclusion that there was a 0% of being able to afford them both, though i never actually verified that. So if i were to choose one over the other, it would depend on whether or not we got Dahlin.

If we got Dahlin, i target Tavares. If we miss Dahlin i go for Karlsson. Scenario 1 would be the dream, but i'd be happy with 2 as well.

I don't know.
What's going to cost?

So I signed Larkin to $4.2, Mantha to $3.5 and AA to $2.1.
I traded Howard ($1.5M retained) and Ericsson.

I LTIRed Kronwall and Franzen.

I signed Tavares for $12Mx7.

This is the team for $75.6M

Tatar Tavares Mantha
Zetterbeg Larkin Athanasiou
Abdelkader Nielsen Nyquist
Bertuzzi Helm Frk
(Glendening)

Dahlin/Daley
Dekeyser/Hronelkl
XO/Jensen
Lashoff

Mrazek/Coreau

So looking at that team. How do we get $12M more for Karlsson or Doughty?

Let's assume the cap I had at $80M goes up to $82M.
We're 7.5M below the cap.
We lose Nyquist to UFA. We're at $12M.

I'd work to trade Nielsen or Helm and keep Gus.
If you trade Nielsen, you can offer $12M for Karlsson or Doughty. You can replace Helm and Nielsen with Rasmussen and Turgeon. Zetterberg probably retires too, after next season.

Tatar-Tavares-Mantha
Nyquist-Larkin-AA
Abdelkader-Rasmussen-Frk
Bertuzzi-Glendening-Turgeon (whoever

Dahlin Doughty
Dekeyser Hronek
Choloski-Daley


After 19-20, You need to replace Daley, but hopefully Hicketts or Saarijarvi are ready.

The big concern is Larkin/Mantha and maybe AA.
But 20-21 will be the last year of the contract for Tatar and Helm and Glendening, so you'll have options.

I wonder how many goals Mantha would score next to JT

 

[Redder Winger]

Well, yeah, that would be sweet, but I didn't realize Tavares, Karlson, and Doughty were available.

JT is this year.
Karlsson, Doughty and OEL the next.

 

[PelagicJoe]

Fantasy scenario.

1) Draft Dahlin.
2) Sign Tavares.
3) Trade Nielsen, Howard and whoever else needs to go.
4) Sign Karlsson or Doughty or OEL after next year.

Now, that's a list of 4 hard ****ing steps.
But, there's your quick turn around plan.

That would be awesome. We should have the cap room to sign Tavares if the cap is going up like everyone says. Get on that g.d. phone, Kenny.

 

[Redder Winger]

That would be awesome. We should have the cap room to sign Tavares if the cap is going up like everyone says. Get on that g.d. phone, Kenny.

Even if you don't draft Dahlin, this would be a way to rebuild the team.
If you draft Hughes or Bouchard or Dobson or Boquist, this plan can still turn your franchise around.

The thing is, getting Dahlin is one of those things that gives your franchise a boost as your market yourself to a UFA.

Maybe landing Dahlin gives a Tavares some hope for the future in Detroit.
Maybe without it, there's virtually no hope, even with a massive overpay.

 

[Oddbob]

Aaron Eklbad is four years into his NHL career and looks like he's about to miss the playoffs again. And you look at his defense, he's got another good young defense in Matheson.


Darnell Nurse has all the tools of a franchise defenseman. He's sitting outside the playoffs.


Look at the 2012 draft if you want to see the perils of a "D-heavy draft." Those kids are 24 now.

So, sure, the team could turn it around just by drafting a Dahlin. It's possible.

But very unlikely. We've got need for more than 1 D. We've got more need than D. And D take longer to develop.

At the end of the day, the best way to develop a good young D is to have them play at a great defenseman and a great center - two things we don't have.

Aaron Ekblad was never anywhere near the hype of Dahlin, not even close. No one had him miles and away ahead of every one else, ala McDavid. Darnell Nurse, Matheson, come on, these guys were never considered elite franchise turning d-men, besides maybe Panthers and Oilers fans, and including them in an argument is really silly when talking about hype for a d-man that I personally don't remember hearing any more hype about any other draftable d-man in all the time I have been watching hockey of nearly 30 years.

 

[Henkka]

Aaron Ekblad was never anywhere near the hype of Dahlin, not even close. No one had him miles and away ahead of every one else, ala McDavid. Darnell Nurse, Matheson, come on, these guys were never considered elite franchise turning d-men, besides maybe Panthers and Oilers fans, and including them in an argument is really silly when talking about hype for a d-man that I personally don't remember hearing any more hype about any other draftable d-man in all the time I have been watching hockey of nearly 30 years.

That Ekblad draft seems to be very weak on defencemen. He could be the best of those guys, but It could mean he never lives up his 7.5M contract.

Like our "great" 2011 defenceman draft. We pretty much took the best guys of the whole group since the Ouellet pick but all were average or never turned to anything. Josh Manson is the only defenceman who has succeded to TOP4 role after our Ouellet pick.

2011 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com

Lots of forward were picked on later rounds, but no defenceman. It was really weak defenceman draft. This was our drafting problem with Jim Nill. they didn't know which year to go after strong forward group or strong defenceman group. It looks like just random because of organizational need.

Now, this 2018 draft is overall strong for defencemen and the best of the group could be best of his era.

There's huge differencies between drafts.

 

[Oddbob]

That Ekblad draft seems to be very weak on defencemen. He could be the best of those guys, but It could mean he never lives up his 7.5M contract.

Like our "great" 2011 defenceman draft. We pretty much took the best guys of the whole group since the Ouellet pick but all were average or never turned to anything. Josh Manson is the only defenceman who has succeded to TOP4 role after our Ouellet pick.

2011 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com

Lots of forward were picked on later rounds, but no defenceman. It was really weak defenceman draft. This was our drafting problem with Jim Nill. they didn't know which year to go after strong forward group or strong defenceman group. It looks like just random because of organizational need.

Now, this 2018 draft is overall strong for defencemen and the best of the group could be best of his era.

There's huge differencies between drafts.

Not sure what you are getting at, as that is what I was saying, none of the defencemen in recent history have had the hype of Dahlin.

 

[Redder Winger]

Not sure what you are getting at, as that is what I was saying, none of the defencemen in recent history have had the hype of Dahlin.

Hedman had a ton of hype.
Is Tampa what they are without Stamkos and Kucherov etc?


The NHL doesn't often have defensemen go #1 overall.

Aaron Ekblad
Erik Johnson
Chris Phillips
Bryan Berard
Ed Jovanovski
Rom Hamrlik
Gord Kluzak
Rob Ramage
Rick Green
Greg Joly
Dennis Potvin
Rick Pagnutti
Barry Gibbs

Of that group, it's interesting that only Dennis Potvin lived up to it.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Hedman had a ton of hype.
Is Tampa what they are without Stamkos and Kucherov etc?


The NHL doesn't often have defensemen go #1 overall.

Aaron Ekblad
Erik Johnson
Chris Phillips
Bryan Berard
Ed Jovanovski
Rom Hamrlik
Gord Kluzak
Rob Ramage
Rick Green
Greg Joly
Dennis Potvin
Rick Pagnutti
Barry Gibbs

Of that group, it's interesting that only Dennis Potvin lived up to it.

Don't draft Dahlin, got it.

 

[Dotter]

Don't draft Dahlin, got it.

We probably won't get to anyhow. He'll be way drafted before our 9th overall pick.

 

[Red Stanley]

We probably won't get to anyhow. He'll be way drafted before our 9th overall pick.

We'll just pick Rasmussen at 9th.