Prospect Info: Korshkov stays in Russia

[Al14]

Quick, make that trade before LA changes their mind!

Yeah, get on it now! Oh, and make sure L.A. includes Tyler Toffoli to even it out.

 

[4thline]

What's the smart move though? Have to say it's not a good sign if he can't make our Marlies top 6 next year.

If it's about money that's one thing, if he can't get a spot he's behind schedule (well behind). Keep in mind he turns 22 this summer.

It's not a binary though. Nothing about him staying in Russia indicates that he couldn't make the Marlies Top 6 next year if he came over.
Assumption A. Whether signed or not he's not making the Leafs next year
Assumption B. He has verbalized a strong commitment to playing for the Leafs in the NHL when ready, and demonstrated that commitment by only signing a 1 year deal in Russia.

What is there to gain by coming over now? He's not too good to develop further in the KHL, and if they trust that he's going to come eventually then there's nothing to be gained by getting his name on the dotted line. That leaves it as

Marlies- benefits- closer work with our development staff, adjustment to North America
Lokomotiv- benefits- more developed player in 1st year of ELC, more developed player in year 2 of ELC, player exempt from 2020 expansion draft

To me the difference in the Marlies vs. Lokomotiv does not outweigh the huge contractual benefits to the Leafs of him staying in Russia

 

[Gallagbi]

It's not a binary though. Nothing about him staying in Russia indicates that he couldn't make the Marlies Top 6 next year if he came over.
Assumption A. Whether signed or not he's not making the Leafs next year
Assumption B. He has verbalized a strong commitment to playing for the Leafs in the NHL when ready, and demonstrated that commitment by only signing a 1 year deal in Russia.

What is there to gain by coming over now? He's not too good to develop further in the KHL, and if they trust that he's going to come eventually then there's nothing to be gained by getting his name on the dotted line. That leaves it as

Marlies- benefits- closer work with our development staff, adjustment to North America
Lokomotiv- benefits- more developed player in 1st year of ELC, more developed player in year 2 of ELC, player exempt from 2020 expansion draft

To me the difference in the Marlies vs. Lokomotiv does not outweigh the huge contractual benefits to the Leafs of him staying in Russia

Those Lokomotiv benefits are a bit of a stretch and a huge assumption IMO. There's development opportunities through playing on NHL-size ice and potential call-ups that he just can't get over there. The KHL is obviously a good league, but it doesn't guarantee him better development. Contract is a fine argument, but reading the "glut of Marlies" (or whatever phrase was used) in the tweet and further posts terrifies me.

 

[Anthrax442]

Those Lokomotiv benefits are a bit of a stretch and a huge assumption IMO. There's development opportunities through playing on NHL-size ice and potential call-ups that he just can't get over there. The KHL is obviously a good league, but it doesn't guarantee him better development. Contract is a fine argument, but reading the "glut of Marlies" (or whatever phrase was used) in the tweet and further posts terrifies me.

The "glut of Marlies" was a remark from Mike from Buffalo, so it's basically a hot take

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[4thline]

@Gallagbi who said anything about "better development" my point is more development time equally better player at each contractual stage.

If Korshkov has it in him to be become an NHL player odds are that he will be a better player this time next year than he is today, regardless of if he plays for the Marlies or Loko. Therefore, unsigned this season would result in a better, more useful player in the 1st year of his elc (@ age 23 Sept 19 instead of 22 Sept 20). Carried forward another season- a better more useful player in the second year @ age 24 instead of 23. I think that's huge, especially considering the cap constraints we will be faced with in 19/20, 20/21.

It's weighing a full season of "free" development vs. the difference between an AHL/KHL development season. As long as the situation is good (ie, not Liljegren in Rogle) I'd take the full season everytime.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Well issue now would be that he has a good year there - we won't be that much different on RW with the big club and he'll sign with either SKA or CSKA.

I like him as a prospect, but perhaps we should consider moving him to a team with less wing depth for another prospect or even pick.

 

[4thline]

Well issue now would be that he has a good year there - we won't be that much different on RW with the big club and he'll sign with either SKA or CSKA.

I like him as a prospect, but perhaps we should consider moving him to a team with less wing depth for another prospect or even pick.

Or it takes him two season to get to the level he wants to be at and comes over as a 24 year old impact player on a one year deal like a Zaitsev.

 

[Kamiccolo]

What a terrible pick he was. Not sure why they would take him so high. He hasn't done much since the draft and is a risk to not come over. Just a bad pick all around, especially considering some of the talented defense that was still on the board..

 

[Rare Jewel]

Or it takes him two season to get to the level he wants to be at and comes over as a 24 year old impact player on a one year deal like a Zaitsev.

In two seasons he's a UFA though.

It seems like he wants make the NHL right away or he'll stay in Russia. I don't blame him for it because that's the case for a lot of Russians, but I don't think he'll just walk onto the team in next year or two given his position.

 

[Knies iT]

What a terrible pick he was. Not sure why they would take him so high. He hasn't done much since the draft and is a risk to not come over. Just a bad pick all around, especially considering some of the talented defense that was still on the board..

He is an NHL caliber player already at 21; to get that in the 2nd round is a total score.

Problem is that he's a typical Russian who wants to be handed opportunity rather than grow with the organization like Kapanen, Dermott, Johnsson, Nylander, etc. etc. etc. have. Will continue to be a problem come contract negotiations when he attempts to use the KHL as leverage for more coin. Unless you're looking at a ridiculously skilled player, ala Tarasenko, Kucherov, Kuznetsov, etc. I would not ever bother with these Russians in the draft.

 

[Gabriel426]

He is an NHL caliber player already at 21; to get that in the 2nd round is a total score.

Problem is that he's a typical Russian who wants to be handed opportunity rather than grow with the organization like Kapanen, Dermott, Johnsson, Nylander, etc. etc. etc. have. Will continue to be a problem come contract negotiations when he attempts to use the KHL as leverage for more coin. Unless you're looking at a ridiculously skilled player, ala Tarasenko, Kucherov, Kuznetsov, etc. I would not ever bother with these Russians in the draft.

But what if he turns into a Kucherov. You won't know unless you draft them.
Personally, I think he sees KHL as a better league than the AHL. He knows that as long as he produces(thats what he meant by being a leader on his team), he will have a better shot at making the NHL with the Leafs. If we know Marlies got a tons of wingers, don't you think he knows that too. Say all you want about needing players with confidence....but if I have to choose between a sure top line spot with PP time vs need to fight it out with a whole bunch of others for the top line spot and PP time, I will take the sure spot any day.
Its has nothing to do with handing a spot....say he comes over and got homesick or a few bad games, he is demoted to the 3rd line and his stats suffer and he drops in the pecking order. By staying in the KHL, he knows even if he has a few bad games, he is on the top line and PP.

 

[Yamazaki]

I was hoping we would draft Hart or Debrincat. I didn’t know much about him when we drafted him but I do like his game. This is the gamble you take when drafting Russians but I think we have to wait at least 2 years before making a judgement call. These bigger players take longer to develop and I think he may not be 100% over his injury.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

In two seasons he's a UFA though.

It seems like he wants make the NHL right away or he'll stay in Russia. I don't blame him for it because that's the case for a lot of Russians, but I don't think he'll just walk onto the team in next year or two given his position.

Augello is wrong. Doesn't understand that Russian/Swiss system and the non-transfer rule. He's assuming he's like a normal European, but he's not. We keep his rights until he's 27.

There may not be a spot for next year, since both Leivo, Johnsson and Kapanen could be getting full time wing roles next year in over some of the UFA's, but there could be spots after next year, especially if Leivo doesn't pan out.

 

[Knies iT]

But what if he turns into a Kucherov. You won't know unless you draft them.
Personally, I think he sees KHL as a better league than the AHL. He knows that as long as he produces(thats what he meant by being a leader on his team), he will have a better shot at making the NHL with the Leafs. If we know Marlies got a tons of wingers, don't you think he knows that too. Say all you want about needing players with confidence....but if I have to choose between a sure top line spot with PP time vs need to fight it out with a whole bunch of others for the top line spot and PP time, I will take the sure spot any day.
Its has nothing to do with handing a spot....say he comes over and got homesick or a few bad games, he is demoted to the 3rd line and his stats suffer and he drops in the pecking order. By staying in the KHL, he knows even if he has a few bad games, he is on the top line and PP.

He will never be a Kucherov, he is at best a Backes, which is still a valuable player. My point is that I would not even bother with these guys unless they have unbelievable tools with a high ceiling like Kucherov. A couple unproven examples would be Kaprizov, Denisenko, Kravtsov, etc. It's just not worth the headache of making exceptions for a non-outstanding player.

I get the rationale behind his choice, but I know for a fact that management is attempting to create a culture of discipline by "paying your dues", which is part of the reason why this team is so tight knit, because most of them have climbed the ranks together with the Marlies. These Russians don't seem to want to do that.

 

[Gabriel426]

He will never be a Kucherov, he is at best a Backes, which is still a valuable player. My point is that I would not even bother with these guys unless they have unbelievable tools with a high ceiling like Kucherov. A couple unproven examples would be Kaprizov, Denisenko, Kravtsov, etc. It's just not worth the headache of making exceptions for a non-outstanding player.

I get the rationale behind his choice, but I know for a fact that management is attempting to create a culture of discipline by "paying your dues", which is part of the reason why this team is so tight knit, because most of them have climbed the ranks together with the Marlies. These Russians don't seem to want to do that.

Kucherov was drafted in the 50s. My point is you never know. I think Hunter must have seen something for them to draft him that high considering Hart was still on the board.

I just think he is doing what is best for his career.

 

[Menzinger]

“Give me an NHL spot or I’m not coming”

Up to him now to prove this seasons he’s worth it.

 

[4thline]

In two seasons he's a UFA though.

It seems like he wants make the NHL right away or he'll stay in Russia. I don't blame him for it because that's the case for a lot of Russians, but I don't think he'll just walk onto the team in next year or two given his position.

Nope, 5 years. Russian/Swiss rights are held until they reach full UFA age at 27. I like because it's a nice alternative development pipeline that doesn't take up organizational roster/ contract spots and with the stretched time horizon can lead to the injection of key pieces in their prime.

Thought experiment- in a universe where Burke isn't xenophobic, doesn't make the Biggs trade up and we pick Percy @ 30 and double over age Zaitsev at 39 in 2011. Fast forward to 2013- people are loving the Percy and Leivo picks- what's not to like, strong post draft CHL development that has been closely monitored by fans, good late season pro appearances. But Zaitsev? Terrible pick, what were they thinking. No development at all just look at his db page. Fast forward to Fall 2016...

 

[ITM]

I was hoping we would draft Hart or Debrincat. I didn’t know much about him when we drafted him but I do like his game. This is the gamble you take when drafting Russians but I think we have to wait at least 2 years before making a judgement call. These bigger players take longer to develop and I think he may not be 100% over his injury.

I posted before the draft wanting Hart or Clague.

Hopefully, Korshkov pans out.

 

[Rare Jewel]

ope, 5 years. Russian/Swiss rights are held until they reach full UFA age at 27. I like because it's a nice alternative development pipeline that doesn't take up organizational roster/ contract spots and with the stretched time horizon can lead to the injection of key pieces in their prime.

Well that's a bit better.

Still the roster spot and possibly playing in the AHL could still be an issue.

 

[4thline]

Well that's a bit better.

Still the roster spot and possibly playing in the AHL could still be an issue.

Maybe, but I don't think a huge one. The team has already shown a willingness to let no doubt NHL calibre player directly onto the roster without having to go through the AHL on principle.

I was dumb, shoehorning the Zaitsev example to fit when we had our own near carbon copy success story. Shocking similarities to Nik Kulemin, and Komarov out of the same 06 draft was another "draft & stash" Russian (I know he's finnish) success story. A player somewhere on that impact spectrum -hopefully closer to pre-crash Kulemin- being injected directly onto the roster in 1-4 seasons on an elc will be huge

 

[francis246]

yeah I know. I'm just thinking that he wants to come to NA eventually, but only to play in the NHL

Komarov did the same thing with us. It took him a while to get him over here but eventually he came

 

[PromisedLand]

this sucks wanted to see him with the marlies; looks like he is not interested;

 

[Nalens Oga]

I hated this off the board pick then and I hate it now considering how many good players were available 30-45ish that year.

I don't blame him for staying in Russia either, too much on the depth chart here and probably would have to wait a while to get an opportunity under Babcock unless he's older.

 

[Stephen]

I don’t mind if he doesn’t come over right away and is on the slower development path as long as he comes over at some point. If he is indeed a Backes type power forward that’s exactly what we’ll need in a couple of years. It’s not like a power forward really comes to the NHL and dominates at 21-22 anyway. Let him do things on his own career timetable and see what happens. The good thing about a developmental system that works is you don’t need everything right away.