Prospect Info: Kole Lind, Pt. II | Is not being taken, etcetera

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Jay Cee

P4G
May 8, 2007
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People are talking like Gaunce took lots of heat for how poor he has been thus far in the NHL. Given his draft position and how other first round or second round picks have been treated, I think he has fared pretty well. Gaunce has 12 points in 114 NHL games. He is probably 2 or 3 years away from playing in Europe.

If Lind is that poor of a player he will likely get called out just as much if not more.
 

Icebreakers

Registered User
Apr 29, 2011
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Brendan Gaunce was never expected to produce in the NHL though... even his draft 2 in junior he had meh production on a stacked team.

He progressed well into the AHL and put up really good numbers there. I think Gaunce turned out how we all expected him to turn out. Sure his offense hasnt translated but I would have projected him to be a 25 point player max anyways.

Lind is a different story. If hes not scoring you cant play him on the ice.
 
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M2Beezy

Objective and Neutral Hockey Commentator
May 25, 2014
45,287
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Its interesting that we keep complaining about giving up draft picks for useless bandaids, but also complain that when we keep the picks we don't pick decent players ....
Maybe pick decent players then

Or just stop making them bad trades
 

F A N

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Aug 12, 2005
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Brendan Gaunce was never expected to produce in the NHL though... even his draft 2 in junior he had meh production on a stacked team.

He progressed well into the AHL and put up really good numbers there. I think Gaunce turned out how we all expected him to turn out. Sure his offense hasnt translated but I would have projected him to be a 25 point player max anyways.

Lind is a different story. If hes not scoring you cant play him on the ice.

I disagree. Gaunce wasn't "expected to produce in the NHL" because realistically he fell to us because of questions over his offensive upside. But he was expected to develop into a 3rd line C, not someone who can go 94 games without a goal.

Kole Lind isn't "expected to produce in the NHL" because realistically he's a late 1st/early 2nd round pick because of questions over his ability to produce offensively in the NHL. If you think he's a top 6 or bust type where his defensive game will hold him back from the NHL, then I question your knowledge of Lind as a prospect and player.
 

Johnny Canucker

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Jan 4, 2009
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My agenda lol. I don’t make the picks. If you can justify another team screwing up more 1st round picks recently than we have, please let me know.

Jensen
White
Guance
Virtanen
Juolevi
Hodgson
Nathan smith
Josh Holden
Chris McAllister

Etc etc etc. Do you want me to go on?

With the stat of 80% of first rounders playing 50 or more NHL games , we are way way under expectations. Can’t win a cup when you continuously botch your 1st rounders. That’s how you build a team. The alternative is a recipe for mediocrity.



Lucky for you and your agenda, no.
 

member 290103

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My agenda lol. I don’t make the picks. If you can justify another team screwing up more 1st round picks recently than we have, please let me know.

Jensen
White
Guance
Virtanen
Juolevi
Hodgson
Nathan smith
Josh Holden
Chris McAllister

Etc etc etc. Do you want me to go on?

With the stat of 80% of first rounders playing 50 or more NHL games , we are way way under expectations. Can’t win a cup when you continuously botch your 1st rounders. That’s how you build a team. The alternative is a recipe for mediocrity.

I never said you were wrong. I just said that the facts fit well with your agenda. That's not always the case, but here it is. I am truly happy for you.
 
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Johnny Canucker

Registered User
Jan 4, 2009
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I forgot to add Koltsov to that list. Man oh man....


My agenda lol. I don’t make the picks. If you can justify another team screwing up more 1st round picks recently than we have, please let me know.

Jensen
White
Guance
Virtanen
Juolevi
Hodgson
Nathan smith
Josh Holden
Chris McAllister

Etc etc etc. Do you want me to go on?

With the stat of 80% of first rounders playing 50 or more NHL games , we are way way under expectations. Can’t win a cup when you continuously botch your 1st rounders. That’s how you build a team. The alternative is a recipe for mediocrity.
 

CanaFan

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
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1st round pick as a 13th forward on a terrible team. That’s not efficient drafting.

When that 1st round pick is 26th overall though?

Eh, it’s not great but it’s probably average-above average. What’s the hit rate on late 1sts anyway? No point evaluating him to the same standard as top 10 or 15 picks.
 

Johnny Canucker

Registered User
Jan 4, 2009
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First round picks (the whole round) are 80% chance to play 50+ NHL games. Not a great pick, regardless of where in the round he went. We took him before Brady Skeji and Tanner Pearson ... gross.


When that 1st round pick is 26th overall though?

Eh, it’s not great but it’s probably average-above average. What’s the hit rate on late 1sts anyway? No point evaluating him to the same standard as top 10 or 15 picks.
 

VanJack

Registered User
Jul 11, 2014
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Guys like Gaunce, Jensen, Hodgson and Schroeder--all picks by the previous Gillis regime--simply underscore how hard it is for many first-round draft picks to dramatically improve their games after they're drafted. The 'holes' in their game in junior and college, just became 'bigger holes' once they turn pro. All of these guys played a least few games in the league and showed flashes, but no consistent improvement.

In the case of Gaunce, the Canucks drafted him for his size and character (he was a captain in the OHL), but skating was always an issue....and guess what, six years after he was drafted it's still an issue. But taking a positive spin, it seems with the current regime, the fundamentals of even their later-round draft picks are better. Kids like Lockwood, Gaudette, Lind, Gadjovich, Jasek, Palmu and even this year's third rounder Madden can all skate and handle the puck. Seems to me there's a better foundation for them moving forward, and more likely they're going to make it eventually.
 

Shareefruck

Registered User
Apr 2, 2005
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Vancouver, BC
First round picks (the whole round) are 80% chance to play 50+ NHL games. Not a great pick, regardless of where in the round he went. We took him before Brady Skeji and Tanner Pearson ... gross.
That kind of doesn't tell us much, though. I'd be curious what the hit rate for late 1st rounders/early 2nd rounders are as well.
 

CanaFan

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
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First round picks (the whole round) are 80% chance to play 50+ NHL games. Not a great pick, regardless of where in the round he went. We took him before Brady Skeji and Tanner Pearson ... gross.

Right but the “1st round” is skewed by the higher success rates of players taken 1-15 or so. Gaunce was taken 26th so it’s inaccurate to set a benchmark for him based on guys taken 20+ picks earlier. That’s why I say he should be evaluated based on the success rates of players taken 25-30, whatever that is.

I mean if you look at the players taken immediately after Gaunce there are two “hits” (Skjei and Pearson) and the rest are duds (Samuelsson, Matteau, Dansk, Moroz, Collberg, Pokka, Finn, Kerdiles). So while Gaunce isn’t one of the hits, he’s at least an NHLer while the median outcome for his part of the draft is a non-NHLer. It’s crazy to consider him a terrible pick when the majority of players that were left are even worse.
 
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forty47seven

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May 2, 2009
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iceburg

Don't ask why
Aug 31, 2003
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Here we go once again putting way too much stock in the success rates based on data sets that contain huge variations between points. While Cullen's analysis is interesting, the numbers can't be used to conclude much of anything. Take, for example, the 15th and 26th overall picks. He says there is a 41.7% chance of 15th overall picks playing 100 games and a 75% chance of the 26th overall playing 100 games. That should pretty much tell you all you need to know. The error bars in this analysis are huge.
 
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Shareefruck

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Apr 2, 2005
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Vancouver, BC
Putting stock into it or not, that does sound about what I would have expected. I would be very surprised if late first rounders on average are significantly MORE successful than that, such that an NHL 4th liner is an outright bust. Let alone in a draft class as weak as the one Gaunce was in.
 
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krutovsdonut

eeyore
Sep 25, 2016
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gaunce can still aspire to be an elite 4th liner like manny.

991 games in a career shortened by injury is not a bust even if you never score more than 14 goals in a season.
 
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