Prospect Info: Klim Kostin (31st overall in 2017)

[BlueMed]

Done for the year, more surgery. Maybe he can go live with Vladi in STL while rehabbing

Done for the year? Or are you jumping to conclusions? Even a physician would not have concluded that based on watching the play alone. I'm sure you didn't do Kostin's physical exam or looked at any of the imaging performed, because Army texted this morning that the injury is nothing serious and Kostin will not miss much time.

 

[BlueMed]

I think this is where the disconnect is, comparing him to NHL all stars like Backes or Schenn or Benn is assuming all the unknowns with Kostin go the right way (and in a big way) which is IMO pretty unrealistic. For every Backes/Benn that develops in the college/juniors/minors there are several Evgeny Grachevs or Valeri Nichushkins who don't. The most likely outcome is probably somewhere in the middle, so I don't think the Berglund/Stewart (big, enigmatic forwards) comparisons are too far off base. We knew he was gonna be a project when we drafted him, 2.5 years in, that hasn't changed, but he hasn't exactly set the world on fire either. But using a bunch of all stars as a comparison is certainly setting him up to disappoint.

I think the call-up forced this conversation, but we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the reason he got called up was because we had 3 injuries in a short period and Kyrou was still just getting back on the ice. It sucks he got injured yesterday because if there is a player that just needs ice time, it's him.

Are you really saying that it is unrealistic for Kostin to be like Backes or Schenn based on his first 4 NHL games as a 20 year old? I understand the notion that one shouldn't draw conclusions based on lack of results, but you basically drew a negative conclusion of Kostin's career trajectory based on FOUR games, which is perplexing.

 

[Quaz]

Done for the year? Or are you jumping to conclusions? Even a physician would not have concluded that based on watching the play alone. I'm sure you didn't do Kostin's physical exam or looked at any of the imaging performed, because Army texted this morning that the injury is nothing serious and Kostin will not miss much time.

Armstrong was quoted today saying that Kostin's injury isn't serious and he's not expected to be out long.

 

[BlueMed]

Armstrong was quoted today saying that Kostin's injury isn't serious and he's not expected to be out long.

That's what I literally just said. My first 2 questions were rhetorical and aimed at the poster who, like many others on this forum, enjoy jumping to conclusions based on little or no information.

 

[David Dennison]

Are you really saying that it is unrealistic for Kostin to be like Backes or Schenn based on his first 4 NHL games as a 20 year old? I understand the notion that one shouldn't draw conclusions based on lack of results, but you basically drew a negative conclusion of Kostin's career trajectory based on FOUR games, which is perplexing.

Not even in the least, my previous post was comparing his AHL to Schenns AHL stints at the same age. I even made the point that he wouldn't have been in the NHL had it not been for 3-4 injuries all occuring within a week or two. I don't put much stock into those few games and I am dumbfounded as to how you came to that conclusion.

He was drafted with a lot of unknowns, and he hasn't don't much to answer those unknowns since being drafted. Are there a lot of things working against him? Yep, injuries, playing time in the AHL at 18-19, language, etc.. But other players have produced with the same challenges. At some point a lack of production is indicative of a lack of high end skill or offensive hockey sense. Am I way off base here?

Barbashev was a top QMJHL scorer, only okay at the AHL at 19 (D+2), much better at 20 (D+3), and, while he is a solid player, even his offense hasn't exactly taken off in the NHL. I can probably count on one hand the number of players who developed into scorers in the NHL that didn't produce in the AHL or juniors.

 

[Ginger Papa]

Armstrong was quoted today saying that Kostin's injury isn't serious and he's not expected to be out long.

I am so relieved to read that. Thanks for the update. I watched the hit on the S.A. Rampage Site and it was as solid as they come, with Klim's arm kind of down across his chest where he's vulnerable rather than braced (if that makes sense). One thing is for sure, if Klim can bounce back from that quickly, it shows that the shoulder is alllll the way back and then some.

Cheers

P.S. My apologies to DBrownsss & BlueMed for not quoting you as well, I'm still getting used to the functions when I use my phone.

 

[BlueMed]

Not even in the least, my previous post was comparing his AHL to Schenns AHL stints at the same age. I even made the point that he wouldn't have been in the NHL had it not been for 3-4 injuries all occuring within a week or two. I don't put much stock into those few games and I am dumbfounded as to how you came to that conclusion.

He was drafted with a lot of unknowns, and he hasn't don't much to answer those unknowns since being drafted. Are there a lot of things working against him? Yep, injuries, playing time in the AHL at 18-19, language, etc.. But other players have produced with the same challenges. At some point a lack of production is indicative of a lack of high end skill or offensive hockey sense. Am I way off base here?

Barbashev was a top QMJHL scorer, only okay at the AHL at 19 (D+2), much better at 20 (D+3), and, while he is a solid player, even his offense hasn't exactly taken off in the NHL. I can probably count on one hand the number of players who developed into scorers in the NHL that didn't produce in the AHL or juniors.

You are off base here. You acknowledge the challenges that Kostin has faced since his draft year including his injuries, moving here from a different country, learning a new language, adjusting to a different sized rink, playing limited minutes, etc. and yet you try to compare him statistically to other players like Schenn who haven't had any of those same challenges.

It's also difficult to translate AHL into NHL production because some players light up the AHL and don't in the NHL and vice versa for numerous reasons. Army even mentioned at the beginning of the season that some players play better in the NHL because it is more structured.

The truth is, we will all have to wait and see, but writing him off at this point is premature, especially considering that Kostin is trending in the right direction. He has improved tremendously since last year, and he is only 20 years old. If he didn't start to improve since his draft year, then that would be a different story.

 

[Dbrownss]

I think were just not on the same page with comparisons. I'm speaking to style and not career trajectory. Career wise, I think Kostin can be a good middle 6'er 50ish point guy.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Done for the year? Or are you jumping to conclusions? Even a physician would not have concluded that based on watching the play alone. I'm sure you didn't do Kostin's physical exam or looked at any of the imaging performed, because Army texted this morning that the injury is nothing serious and Kostin will not miss much time.

Yes I was jumping to conclusions based on what I saw. That looked like a surgery-necessitating injury based on how he crumpled, writhed, and immediately bolted. Not to mention, two previous injuries to his shoulder in his draft year. If I’m wrong, thank god, but I’m also not convinced “week-to-week” doesn’t turn into something else. We’ll see, but if history has taught us anything, it’s not to assume somebody is ok just because they aren’t immediately put onto IR or whatever. Really hoping for the best here, but not counting my chickens before they hatch, and that certainly looked like something worse on the screen. We need Klim to be healthy and confident. I hope the new year rolls around and he’s just that.

 

[Dbrownss]

I don't really blame anyone for jumping to conclusions....that looked brutal.

 

[STL BLUES]

Assuming it’s a subluxation and he will be back in action in three weeks. Multi shoulder subluxations are never a good thing for a hockey player. Surgery may be needed during the off season. Wounder if it’s the same shoulder repaired pre draft?

 

[67Blues]

Reading the SA news feed, they say he will be week to week.

 

[Coach Nate]

Reinke was week to week and it took him exactly 4 weeks to return.

Husso was week to week last year and, well, we all know how that went.

I'm guessing there was no structural damage and he just needs time to get through the pain and get back into game shape. I think 3 weeks is a pretty decent guess.

 

[EXTRAS]

For the people who watch San Antonio, how close is Kostin to being an impact player at the NHL level? Could he join now, next season, or does he probably need another season and a half in the AHL?

 

[execwrite1]

Kostin has five goals and 10 points in his last 10 games. Maybe he's found his game and is heading in the right direction now.

 

[Stealth JD]

From Wheeler, again at the Athletic:

Kostin has fine top speed but I think his skating is often overstated for being stronger than it actually is. He lumbers from a standstill, which makes it difficult to keep as many plays alive as he probably should. He’s also just not that skilled. He doesn’t make a ton of plays as a cross-ice passer, he’s not a major threat on the power play and his release isn’t the type to surprise goalies, nor is his shot powerful enough to blow pucks past them. The result, for me, has always been a player whose game probably translates fairly well at the NHL level but won’t become more than a bottom-six option.

 

[MissouriMook]

For the people who watch San Antonio, how close is Kostin to being an impact player at the NHL level? Could he join now, next season, or does he probably need another season and a half in the AHL?

I haven't seen much of his AHL play this year, but we've been waiting for a while for him to start dominating at that level. He's still only 20, and he showed some decent promise in his brief NHL stint, but he is still the type of player (at least to me) that always leaves you wanting more. You see the game in there, you just don't see it come out often enough.

@RampageNate has probably seen more of him than the rest of us combined, and one thing he has been pointing out is that he still has a very long way to go with his play away from the puck.

 

[Dbrownss]

From Wheeler, again at the Athletic:

That was an odd description of him, especially his shot. The comment section has taken him to task for it too.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

From Wheeler, again at the Athletic:

I’m a Kostin skeptic, but I think this assessment undersells him a lot. I’m a lot less worried about any of those individual tools and more concerned about his hockey sense and ability to integrate with linemates. But this season has gone a long way toward showing promise in the category.

 

[rumrokh]

Every time somebody makes prospect evaluations, things change. I remember some times when the Blues had highly touted prospect pools that ended up terrible. It's incredibly rare that these pools full of apparent can't-miss guys even mostly hit. And, miraculously, the Blues keep producing impact talent. Not only with higher round picks, but Parayko, Blais, Binnington, McEachern, and Sanford all came out of nowhere if you go by lists like that. Mikkola looks like a potential gem, too.

I think what happened with Kostin is that he was mentioned over and over in the same breath as Thomas (because he was picked just eleven spots later in the same year). As a result, people examined him against very high end prospects and came away thinking he's worse than he really is. Prospect journalism has never been about projects or depth guys who play with grit, it's all about attaching your name to the prospects people are most excited about. The highest scoring and/or the prospects of the popular teams. Most people don't read those to find real insights or to hear they might be getting a really good 3rd liner in a few years.

 

[DoubleK81]

I think what happened with Kostin is that he was mentioned over and over in the same breath as Thomas (because he was picked just eleven spots later in the same year). As a result, people examined him against very high end prospects and came away thinking he's worse than he really is.

Not only that, but nearly everyone had him going way earlier in the first and attributed his drop to the shoulder injury pre-draft.

 

[execwrite1]

The key with Kostin will be patience. Can the Blues wait on him or will they give up - or will he head back to Russia.

The player and the team need to stay committed to his development here. He probably would have been better off playing two years of Canadian juniors but that didn't happen.

I still think he'll be a top six scorer with some beef - a "Big Rig" with 25 goals a season. He definitely has the tools and a nasty streak.

 

[DatDude44]

I have a real good feeling when Klim is 22 yrs old he'll be middle 6 force for us that can play on any line and provide scoring ability and physicality.

 

[MissouriMook]

I have a real good feeling when Klim is 22 yrs old he'll be middle 6 force for us that can play on any line and provide scoring ability and physicality.

I don’t know if he’ll be a force, but I can see him being a 20-25 goal, 25-30 assist player at his peak if he’s getting enough PP time.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

I have a real good feeling when Klim is 22 yrs old he'll be middle 6 force for us that can play on any line and provide scoring ability and physicality.

This was my thought as well. Well, minus the "force" part.

I've recently thought of Kostin as a bottom-9 player. He is somewhat of a weird one because he has some plus tools at his disposal that could be utilized on a top line as well as a 4th line. I don't think he's a "top line" player or a "4th line" player, but rather he has tools that could be utilized in both scenarios. He's a great complimentary player. Nothing irreplaceable, but someone that is always welcome.