Kitchener Rangers 2018-19 Season Thread (Part 3)

[OHLFan90]

I never expected this team to be above .500 so that is a good thing. They are playing some decent hockey lately so I have no issues with getting our money's worth at the moment. All these stats can change in a hurry from season to season so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in something that is on a spread sheet. The OHL is full of surprises every year.(Yantsis) Some of the young players are getting decent ice and coud step up huge next season and put up some good numbers.

Doesn't mean you should ignore them.

It's one thing if we are talking about like a 5 to 10 game serving but at this point people have been tracking all season. This team is the only one that is above .500 that is in the negatives across the board.

We live in a world where statistics have been proven. It's taking over and changing the way the game is thought.

They can change you are correct but this team is still allowing more goals at 5 vs 5 then they are scoring. Gotta solve that problem

 

[Ward Cornell]

I never expected this team to be above .500 so that is a good thing. They are playing some decent hockey lately so I have no issues with getting our money's worth at the moment. All these stats can change in a hurry from season to season so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in something that is on a spread sheet. The OHL is full of surprises every year.(Yantsis) Some of the young players are getting decent ice and coud step up huge next season and put up some good numbers.

The OHL hockey yr is of two seasons, one pre-trade deadline and post-trade deadline, having the stats for the entire is a bit skewed.
I would like to see these stats minus a teams 5 best and worst games and see where the team is trending with the playoffs approaching.

Stats that I would like to see and I'm not sure they exist is a goalie save percentage at full strength vs shorthanded. Kind of like a pitchers ERA doesn't take into account runs scored due to an error.

Having a team near the top in PK and the top PP I suspect speaks volumes of the coaching and systems.

 

[bobber]

Doesn't mean you should ignore them.

It's one thing if we are talking about like a 5 to 10 game serving but at this point people have been tracking all season. This team is the only one that is above .500 that is in the negatives across the board.

We live in a world where statistics have been proven. It's taking over and changing the way the game is thought.

They can change you are correct but this team is still allowing more goals at 5 vs 5 then they are scoring. Gotta solve that problem

Seb I agree every team looks at stats but sometimes depending on the way the team is structured at any given moment it is what it is.
I am sure our staff is well aware of every stat available. They hired an analytics person. I doubt these stats are ignored by management.

 

[EvenSteven]

I agree it's great to have really good special teams, but if you are below average at even strength, it'll come back to bite you when the post season rolls around.

That's when the officials tend to put the whistles away.

 

[rgr4life]

They can change you are correct but this team is still allowing more goals at 5 vs 5 then they are scoring. Gotta solve that problem

I agree, but I don't think either the problem or solution are at the offensive end of the rink.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Stats are important, but how one interprets those stats and the context of those stats is just as important. IMO these stats suggest we are over achieving, and I think given our place in the standings many would agree. Most thought 6th was our absolute best bet, with many thinking 7-8 was more realistic, others thought we'd be out of the playoffs.

If we keep our OAs who are part of the key to our current production, our rookies and inexperienced players are statistically likely to produce more at even strength next season (on average players improve year after year, sometimes significantly so from 16 to 17 year old season). Due to that alone I don't really see an impending regression for 5 on 5 goal scoring being likely or expected outcome, but rather the opposite (and stagnation being more likely than regression).
If our young, inexperienced D take steps forward and we replace what our current OA D bring to the table(steady, decent defense but no offense players aren't to costly) that will also improve the goals against part of the goal differential.
The main problem with our goal differential IMO is lack of steady, quality goaltending. If your goalie is keeping more pucks out, you're differential improves. Another chart that twitter person posted showed us in the bottom 6-8 in terms of overall Save% in the league.
I'd say goaltending and our inconsistent defensive play this year are of more of an issue than overall goal scoring going forward in regard to improving goal differential.

 

[dirty12]

Just to add to this. Someone on twitter has been stat tracking Kitchener.






This is a very dangerous route for Kitchener and the team is almost certainly going to digress. Maybe not this year, but possibly next year.

The chart shows that while the team is winning, they are winning due to a strong PP and above average PK. The team itself is one of the worst teams at producing at 5 on 5. Allowing more goals then they are scoring.

That's not good. So while you may use the Mash, Bunns, and Sherwood as an example, its not a good one.

It's good to have a good power play, no one is saying its a bad thing. But this team is relying on the power play an awful lot. That drys out and so do the wins.



Food for thought.

4/5 rangers scoring better than a pt/g should return for one more year. I doubt the team will digress next season.

 

[OHLFan90]

So after doing a bit of research myself, i made these up

It's got every game's worth of data in it.

Stats: GF at 5 VS 5 - The OHL Collective

Stats: Goals Allowed 5 VS 5 - The OHL Collective

Kitchener at 5 on 5 has scored 133 goals at even strength, an average of 2.37 a game which places them 4th worst in the league overall.

Kitchener at 5 on 5 has been scored on 167 times for an average of 2.98 a game which has the Rangers 6th worst in the league.

It's nice to have an elite power play. The Rangers have a powerplay that teams with the big guns wish they could have. However, as I mentioned earlier they have become too reliant on the power play.

You gotta find a way to still play the other 50-52 minutes a game without giving up more goals then the other team and the Rangers are not doing that.

It's actually amazing that they are above .500 and likely going to hit that 5-6 spot.

And Dirty12 I full heartedly disagree with you. I've seen teams still return their top 4-5 scorers and finish worse. I know teams that have returned 8 out of 10 of their top scorers and they digressed. Just because you have a few guys who can score with the best of them, doesn't translate to team success.

This team is going to digress if they can't find a way to start producing more 5 on 5.

That's all I am saying.

Not trying to be negative in any bit. I think what they have done is awesome. But as someone who is slowly getting into statistics and hockey analytics, it is getting easy to see where the Win's and Losses are coming from

 

[OHLFan90]

Also in saying all this I am going to look into other things like scoring chances, shot attempts at even strength, look deeper into the defence. Maybe there is an underlying issue leading to this

 

[bobber]

I find analytics interesting but like I said the Rangers are aware of these numbers. I still lean towards of what dirty mentioned. I think with returning players , rookies stepping up , free agent or 2 and maybe a trade here and there this team will improve the GD. Just my opinion going forward.

 

[OHLFan90]

I find analytics interesting but like I said the Rangers are aware of these numbers. I still lean towards of what dirty mentioned. I think with returning players , rookies stepping up , free agent or 2 and maybe a trade here and there this team will improve the GD. Just my opinion going forward.

100%

It's interesting.

It is hard to project progression. Like nobody predicted Yantsis. So rookies can take the league by storm next year and no one who have predicted it.

 

[dirty12]

So after doing a bit of research myself, i made these up

It's got every game's worth of data in it.

Stats: GF at 5 VS 5 - The OHL Collective

Stats: Goals Allowed 5 VS 5 - The OHL Collective

Kitchener at 5 on 5 has scored 133 goals at even strength, an average of 2.37 a game which places them 4th worst in the league overall.

Kitchener at 5 on 5 has been scored on 167 times for an average of 2.98 a game which has the Rangers 6th worst in the league.

It's nice to have an elite power play. The Rangers have a powerplay that teams with the big guns wish they could have. However, as I mentioned earlier they have become too reliant on the power play.

You gotta find a way to still play the other 50-52 minutes a game without giving up more goals then the other team and the Rangers are not doing that.

It's actually amazing that they are above .500 and likely going to hit that 5-6 spot.

And Dirty12 I full heartedly disagree with you. I've seen teams still return their top 4-5 scorers and finish worse. I know teams that have returned 8 out of 10 of their top scorers and they digressed. Just because you have a few guys who can score with the best of them, doesn't translate to team success.

This team is going to digress if they can't find a way to start producing more 5 on 5.

That's all I am saying.

Not trying to be negative in any bit. I think what they have done is awesome. But as someone who is slowly getting into statistics and hockey analytics, it is getting easy to see where the Win's and Losses are coming from

You have example(s) of teams returning 4 players that produced better than a pt/g at 18-19 but the team regressed when they were 19-20 while other teams graduated their previous OA(s) and some of their best 19 yr olds? Did those examples trade all their top scorers by the trade deadline?

 

[Rangers True Blue]

I find analytics interesting but like I said the Rangers are aware of these numbers. I still lean towards of what dirty mentioned. I think with returning players , rookies stepping up , free agent or 2 and maybe a trade here and there this team will improve the GD. Just my opinion going forward.

100%

It's interesting.

It is hard to project progression. Like nobody predicted Yantsis. So rookies can take the league by storm next year and no one who have predicted it.

Exactly, stats are not the be all....they're another tool in the tool box. Who could have seen Azevedo, Halischuk, and Spaling?.....and yes, this season, Yantsis. I'm with Bobber and others on this....GD will improve next season....and the draft is key to how this team continues to build.

 

[OHLFan90]

Exactly, stats are not the be all....they're another tool in the tool box. Who could have seen Azevedo, Halischuk, and Spaling?.....and yes, this season, Yantsis. I'm with Bobber and others on this....GD will improve next season....and the draft is key to how this team continues to build.

We aren't really talking about the progression of players though. I too am in agreement with bobber. Player progression is great and the player can and will take steps forward.

However, this team is not scoring enough goals at even strength and allowing too many whiles at 5 on 5.

Again I reiterate because it's clearly been missed because everyone is overlooking the fact, the team needs to improve play at even strength other wise when the power play's don't come like in the playoffs, you aren't going to win.

If you ask me, whoever is in charge of special teams should be the head coach. Unless its Jay McKee running it then I must commend him on that.


The other thing that concerns me is the same problem I saw with the Attack, inconsistency. The same 5 names were showing up on the score sheet.

Look at the Rangers scoring stats. Look how top heavy it is and then how badly it falls off. Between the teams, 5th and 6th leading scorers is a 32 point difference.

Between the teams 5 leading scorers, they have missed a combined 16 games. They've been really healthy. Somewhat of a luxury these days.

This team has some underrated rookies. Sebrango and Langdon have been unreal. Valade seams to be adjusting well. Can we expect them to develop into something bigger next season? We as fans have had countless arguments over the last 4 years about rookies who were great as rookies but fell off in their 17-year-old season. Hell, we had it this year with VUK. While yes progression should be expected, we arguably haven't seen a ton of it over the past 5 seasons.

All I am saying is this team needs to improve its play at even strength. They have relied on special teams to get by and that is a major problem. It's good to have elite special teams. But if you can't find a way to skate with teams and play the other 50-52 minutes a game without allowing more goals then you score, you are going to digress.

Again I am not trying to be negative, just clearly stating that the team needs to be producing at 5 on 5 if they want to continue to be successful. And really really hope that players take a step forward next year.

Lipanov is gone (Not the biggest loss) Hugg is gone next year and that is massive. Gentles and Cameron are gone, Currently, the only 2 defencemen on the team with a plus rating and they are the steady eddies of the team. The 2 defensemen play the PK and Hugg is arguably the teams most complete player with Damiani.


Ill track the rest of the season.

Shot attempts, individual players, scoring chances, and other analytics.Will share the results here as well.

I work from 2-2 every day so stats will be posted on weird days. Usually stuck watching replays or recordings. If you have something you want tracked, let me know and I can try my best.

 

[RangerDanger]

We aren't really talking about the progression of players though. I too am in agreement with bobber. Player progression is great and the player can and will take steps forward.

However, this team is not scoring enough goals at even strength and allowing too many whiles at 5 on 5.

Again I reiterate because it's clearly been missed because everyone is overlooking the fact, the team needs to improve play at even strength other wise when the power play's don't come like in the playoffs, you aren't going to win.

If you ask me, whoever is in charge of special teams should be the head coach. Unless its Jay McKee running it then I must commend him on that.


The other thing that concerns me is the same problem I saw with the Attack, inconsistency. The same 5 names were showing up on the score sheet.

Look at the Rangers scoring stats. Look how top heavy it is and then how badly it falls off. Between the teams, 5th and 6th leading scorers is a 32 point difference.

Between the teams 5 leading scorers, they have missed a combined 16 games. They've been really healthy. Somewhat of a luxury these days.

This team has some underrated rookies. Sebrango and Langdon have been unreal. Valade seams to be adjusting well. Can we expect them to develop into something bigger next season? We as fans have had countless arguments over the last 4 years about rookies who were great as rookies but fell off in their 17-year-old season. Hell, we had it this year with VUK. While yes progression should be expected, we arguably haven't seen a ton of it over the past 5 seasons.

All I am saying is this team needs to improve its play at even strength. They have relied on special teams to get by and that is a major problem. It's good to have elite special teams. But if you can't find a way to skate with teams and play the other 50-52 minutes a game without allowing more goals then you score, you are going to digress.

Again I am not trying to be negative, just clearly stating that the team needs to be producing at 5 on 5 if they want to continue to be successful. And really really hope that players take a step forward next year.

Lipanov is gone (Not the biggest loss) Hugg is gone next year and that is massive. Gentles and Cameron are gone, Currently, the only 2 defencemen on the team with a plus rating and they are the steady eddies of the team. The 2 defensemen play the PK and Hugg is arguably the teams most complete player with Damiani.


Ill track the rest of the season.

Shot attempts, individual players, scoring chances, and other analytics.Will share the results here as well.

I work from 2-2 every day so stats will be posted on weird days. Usually stuck watching replays or recordings. If you have something you want tracked, let me know and I can try my best.

 

[RangerDanger]

Are the Ststs available for the number of shorthanded goals scored against the Rangers this year and how this impacts on their power play goals percentage and comparison to others. The true success of a PP needs to also account for goals for and against (similar to the 5 on 5 stat) in order to properly compare it to the 5 on 5 stat.

 

[bobber]

Every team in the league probably uses advance stats or analytics now. It is interesting to look at these spread sheets and see where your team stands at any given moment. When you read articles on hockey analytics some coaches complain that players are taking shots on purpose from low percentage areas to improve their Corsi stats regardless of whether they score or not. There are so many variables in hockey that contribute to winning and losing that make it almost impossible to predict an out come.

 

[bobber]

No disciplinary action for Toropchenko for his hit on Langdon. Shoot a puck out. Automatic 5. Go figure.

 

[OHLFan90]

Every team in the league probably uses advance stats or analytics now. It is interesting to look at these spread sheets and see where your team stands at any given moment. When you read articles on hockey analytics some coaches complain that players are taking shots on purpose from low percentage areas to improve their Corsi stats regardless of whether they score or not. There are so many variables in hockey that contribute to winning and losing that make it almost impossible to predict an out come.

That's the one thing about stats. They tell a deeper story. Sometimes the old eye test does win.

Plus it is junior hockey. In the NHL you are what you are. But at any given time a 5 goal scorer in one year turns to a flirt with 50 the next. Hard to predict.

I will keep track of certain stats and keep the fans here updated. That way we can see the areas they excel in that we may miss.

 

[bobber]

That's the one thing about stats. They tell a deeper story. Sometimes the old eye test does win.

Plus it is junior hockey. In the NHL you are what you are. But at any given time a 5 goal scorer in one year turns to a flirt with 50 the next. Hard to predict.

I will keep track of certain stats and keep the fans here updated. That way we can see the areas they excel in that we may miss.

Having a positive GD is always a stat every team should strive for if possible . Some teams have great stats and then run into a hot goalie in the play offs and get put out.

 

[OHLFan90]

Having a positive GD is always a stat every team should strive for if possible . Some teams have great stats and then run into a hot goalie in the play offs and get put out.

I'd be curious to be in the rooms with the analytics staff to see where they place the most value.

I am curious to track goalies as well. Just because I want to know if Richardson is better then his stats suggest. Same with a goalie like Raaymakers. He's been a good ohl player but always seem to be questions about his skill

 

[Connected]

When a team's scoring relies on a single line, your PP numbers will outweigh 5v5 scoring substantially.

Your top players, as elite offensive producers, should dominate the PP. Then at even strength your three remaining lines, which of course are weaker, will likely get outscored consistently (just look at +/- for a quick confirmation). This will outweigh the success of your top players at 5v5. Another factor is the inconsistent goaltending the Rangers have seen, which drives down your 5v5 numbers.

The Rangers at 5v5 struggle with 3/4 of their lines. There's your analytical conclusion. No story to tell, no deeper meaning supported by numbers.

5v5 numbers will improve as the development of the younger forwards improves the Rangers depth at forward.

If you have time to kill, IMO, a more telling analytical venture would examine the performance of individual players with statistics such as breakout pass %, turnovers, takeaways, quality of shots, errors leading to goals or penalties, shot attempts vs SOG, save % at 5v5, zone starts, TOI/60, etc. These insights could tell a story that box-scores or quick eye tests may not. (last thing: regress, not digress) est of luck with your project!

 

[Jeffy3535]

w

No disciplinary action for Toropchenko for his hit on Langdon. Shoot a puck out. Automatic 5. Go figure.

You beat me to it. I logged on for the first time in a while to make that exact point haha. I was expecting 5 and still planned on getting pissed off about it. 1 game is actually scary. I can't imagine how Langdon or his folks feel. No player wants to hit someone in the head but this tells the kids' in the league to be more careful about flipping a puck over the glass than properly hitting an opponent.

 

[Connected]

delete

 

[OHLFan90]

When a team's scoring relies on a single line, your PP numbers will outweigh 5v5 scoring substantially.

Your top players, as elite offensive producers, should dominate the PP. Then at even strength your three remaining lines, which of course are weaker, will likely get outscored consistently (just look at +/- for a quick confirmation). This will outweigh the success of your top players at 5v5. Another factor is the inconsistent goaltending the Rangers have seen, which drives down your 5v5 numbers.

The Rangers at 5v5 struggle with 3/4 of their lines. There's your analytical conclusion. No story to tell, no deeper meaning supported by numbers.

5v5 numbers will improve as the development of the younger forwards improves the Rangers depth at forward.

If you have time to kill, IMO, a more telling analytical venture would examine the performance of individual players with statistics such as breakout pass %, turnovers, takeaways, quality of shots, mistakes leading to penalties, etc. These insights could tell a story that box-scores or eye tests may not. (last thing: regress, not digress) Best of luck with your project!

I am going to try with that. I just don't know who to focus on. I guess we will see. I am thinking I might track some rookies and maybe guys like Yantsis and Joey G.


And Regress is the word I have been looking for thank you lol.