Player Discussion Kirill Kaprizov

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2Pair

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I agree that McDavid is the far and away favorite....but who would be the other 2 finalists? Maybe Hedman and Matthews? Are they more valuable to their teams than Kaprizov is to the Wild?
McDavid, MacKinnon, and Matthews would be my 3 finalists for the Hart. Kaprizov should finish top 10
 

f7ben

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McDavid, MacKinnon, and Matthews would be my 3 finalists for the Hart. Kaprizov should finish top 10
North division players shouldn’t count. What an absolute dumpster fire of defensive ineptitude.
 
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space321

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Can someone make a case why Kaprizov shouldn't be considered for Hart Trophy finalist? McDavid will probably win, but Kaprizov can make a case as well.

Make a case for top 5 or top 10 sure. Not really top 3.
 

ThatGuy22

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Little bored this morning, so I did some digging into Kaprizov's shooting percentage. If we're going to pay this guy upwards of 9 million, might be helpful to know how repeatable his very high 17.8 % shooting percentage is.

The good news is, it appears it might be relatively inline with his normal shooting percentage.

He was a career 15.7 % shooter in the KHL, but that includes his predraft and D+1 season were he only shot 9%. His last 4 years in the KHL, he had a 17.4 % shooting percentage, all seasons between 15% - 19% (so it wasn't buoyed by one big year or anything). Shooting percentage's in the KHL tend to be a bit higher based on some anecdotal checking of other big KHL scorers, but Kaprizov's shooting percentage certainly stands out among players who have came to the NHL from the KHL (or vice versa).

Kovalchuk had a big drop in shooting percentage when he headed to the KHL, but it seems to have started the previous 2 years in NJ where he failed to crack 10% after being a consistent 14+% guy.

Gusev similiarly had a big drop coming to the NHL from the KHL, but also seemed to start the season before. May be age releated (or bad luck in his still small NHL sample size)

Radulov only had a minor 1% drop heading to the KHL looking at career numbers. Might be the closest example we can find of high percentage shooters playing in both leagues in their prime.

Grigerenko, similiarly has a bout a 1% drop in his career NHL numbers compared to KHL numbers.

Edit: Not sure why I spaced on checking Panarin. Career 14.6% in NHL, 12.4% his last 4 years in KHL (but 15.5% his last two years in KHL).

Just some food for thought. While his shooting percentage seems sky high, it might be pretty close to his expected norm. Wonder if anyone has ever done a large scale NHL to KHL shooting percentage comparison between the leagues. Basic look it appears to hold within a percentage point or two. That's very good for us.
 
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MNNumbers

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I have no idea how feasible this is, but I think the best idea is a short contract at 7M/yr, and then figure to really pay him in 2 or 3 years. By that time, it may be obvious that Parise is going to LTIR retire. (It's too early for that right now, but in 2 years, when he has only 2 years left on his contract, and is playing even less, it would be very possible). Parise's cap space goes to Kaprisov, and you can pay him 9.5M then if you have to.
 

Bazeek

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I have no idea how feasible this is, but I think the best idea is a short contract at 7M/yr, and then figure to really pay him in 2 or 3 years. By that time, it may be obvious that Parise is going to LTIR retire. (It's too early for that right now, but in 2 years, when he has only 2 years left on his contract, and is playing even less, it would be very possible). Parise's cap space goes to Kaprisov, and you can pay him 9.5M then if you have to.
He's set to become a UFA in 2023-24, right? A 2-3 year deal would be suicide.

Edit: Nevermind, I can't count. Only the 3 year deal is suicide.
 
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StateofCelly

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2 year is suicide as well. Shouldn't let him get anywhere near UFA. Pay the man his money and don't fart around.
100% all it would take is someone to swoop in with an unmatchable number and you could lose him. I think in order to get term the Wild will have to pay up though.
 

Val

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Just some food for thought. While his shooting percentage seems sky high, it might be pretty close to his expected norm. Wonder if anyone has ever done a large scale NHL to KHL shooting percentage comparison between the leagues. Basic look it appears to hold within a percentage point or two. That's very good for us.
Methinks Kaprizov plays better than in KHL year ago. He always got better goals than assists
 

guitarhunterdude

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Just some food for thought. While his shooting percentage seems sky high, it might be pretty close to his expected norm. Wonder if anyone has ever done a large scale NHL to KHL shooting percentage comparison between the leagues. Basic look it appears to hold within a percentage point or two. That's very good for us.

Just based on guys who I figured had similar traits (phenomenal stick work and ability to get to high danger areas, excellent release, great accuracy, above average velocity) I'm figuring him as a career 14% shooter who can probably generate 200-250 shots a year. So figure that to be a 30-35 goal, 65-75 point wing.

I love watching the guy more than I've ever enjoyed watching anyone who's donned a Wild jersey, but I dunno if that's worth 9 a year. Then again, if we draft (or have drafted... Marco pls) a 1C and Kaprizov's total numbers see an uptick with a competent pivot... maybe that's a contract I like.

All hinges on how Boldy and Rossi turn out, and whether or not Parise LTIRs in time to get everyone paid.
 

TJL48

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Just based on guys who I figured had similar traits (phenomenal stick work and ability to get to high danger areas, excellent release, great accuracy, above average velocity) I'm figuring him as a career 14% shooter who can probably generate 200-250 shots a year. So figure that to be a 30-35 goal, 65-75 point wing.

I love watching the guy more than I've ever enjoyed watching anyone who's donned a Wild jersey, but I dunno if that's worth 9 a year. Then again, if we draft (or have drafted... Marco pls) a 1C and Kaprizov's total numbers see an uptick with a competent pivot... maybe that's a contract I like.

All hinges on how Boldy and Rossi turn out, and whether or not Parise LTIRs in time to get everyone paid.


I don't think he is a 65-75 point player. He is on a 70 point pace this year playing basically without a C. Get him a competent center and I think he'll easily be a ppg.
 

MNNumbers

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He's set to become a UFA in 2023-24, right? A 2-3 year deal would be suicide.

Edit: Nevermind, I can't count. Only the 3 year deal is suicide.

I am not in the know about the UFA age limit rules and how they are affected by service time. Thanks for the help. Can you post more detail about how this works, or give me a link?

Thanks a bunch
 

Bazeek

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I am not in the know about the UFA age limit rules and how they are affected by service time. Thanks for the help. Can you post more detail about how this works, or give me a link?

Thanks a bunch
There's an overview of the UFA rules here, but Kaprizov's a weird case. Hockey Wildness had a post that outlines most of it (which I think is mostly cribbed from Russo).
 
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MNNumbers

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There's an overview of the UFA rules here, but Kaprizov's a weird case. Hockey Wildness had a post that outlines most of it (which I think is mostly cribbed from Russo).

Thanks. Basically, he's an RFA. He has 3 years until he becomes a UFA. Thanks.
 

Bruce Granville

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McDavid, MacKinnon, and Matthews would be my 3 finalists for the Hart. Kaprizov should finish top 10
For me it‘s the 3 great Russians…Barkov, Kaprizov and McDavidov.

All 3 making the difference between a playoffs team and a drafting in the top 10 team.
 

Dakota Sioux

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