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Prospect Info: Kirill Kaprizov lll

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Dr Jan Itor

Dr Jan Itor

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thestonedkoala said:
Just like el Nino? or Parise? Kaprizov hits 60 points his first full season, contract expires. Sign him for 6 million for 5 years. He doesn't hit 60 points again, or hit 30 goals. Good contract right?
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Kaprizov hits 60 points his first two full seasons. Sign him for 8 million for 8 years. He doesn't hit 60 points again or hit 30 goals. Good thing he had the extra year right?
 

thestonedkoala

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Dr Jan Itor said:
Kaprizov hits 60 points his first two full seasons. Sign him for 8 million for 8 years. He doesn't hit 60 points again or hit 30 goals. Good thing he had the extra year right?
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There is more data to back up that he'll hit 60+ points if he continues to do it. Even in hockey there is something called a sophomore slump, so if he hits 60 points in his second season, that's pretty good.

However, there is also a good example of that in Mikael Granlund; he hit 60 points twice and hasn't been able to hit it again (yet). He wanted what was it 8-9 million a season? Do you think he'll get it?

Furthermore, if you have two years of data where he hit 60 and then hit 40, it's easier to debate contract based off the most recent season and meet somewhere in the middle.
 
2Pair

2Pair

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thestonedkoala said:
There is more data to back up that he'll hit 60+ points if he continues to do it. Even in hockey there is something called a sophomore slump, so if he hits 60 points in his second season, that's pretty good.

However, there is also a good example of that in Mikael Granlund; he hit 60 points twice and hasn't been able to hit it again (yet). He wanted what was it 8-9 million a season? Do you think he'll get it?

Furthermore, if you have two years of data where he hit 60 and then hit 40, it's easier to debate contract based off the most recent season and meet somewhere in the middle.
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What do you do when he scores 30 points the 1st season and then 100 points in the 2nd season?:scared:
 
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P10p

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thestonedkoala said:
There is more data to back up that he'll hit 60+ points if he continues to do it. Even in hockey there is something called a sophomore slump, so if he hits 60 points in his second season, that's pretty good.

However, there is also a good example of that in Mikael Granlund; he hit 60 points twice and hasn't been able to hit it again (yet). He wanted what was it 8-9 million a season? Do you think he'll get it?

Furthermore, if you have two years of data where he hit 60 and then hit 40, it's easier to debate contract based off the most recent season and meet somewhere in the middle.
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You're literally making up completely random scenarios that have no barring on reality and you're arguing for them as though they're peer reviewed data.

Absolutely ludicrous that people think like this....
 
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P10p

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What happens if he changes his position to goalie and wins the vezina than we have to pay him 8x8
 
AKL

AKL

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P10p said:
What happens if he changes his position to goalie and wins the vezina than we have to pay him 8x8
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I think he would need to win 2 Vezina’s and maybe get some Hart votes before we’d need to give him 8x8
 

P10p

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AKL said:
I think he would need to win 2 Vezina’s and maybe get some Hart votes before we’d need to give him 8x8
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But what if he wins two Vezina's and than we have to buy him out. We would be totally screwed.
 

thestonedkoala

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P10p said:
You're literally making up completely random scenarios that have no barring on reality and you're arguing for them as though they're peer reviewed data.
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Sophomore slump is real and the data behind it is relevant. You realize that players don't just play a game, and then go home for the next game right? That they actually practice, watch tape on players (especially goalies) and game plan around certain players?

You get guys like Elias Pettersson, who haven't encountered it. Or Brady Tkachuk.

You get guys like Andrei Svechnikov, who had a good season as a rookie, but you know can do better (and has).

Brock Boeser has been good, but he has had health issues. And he has scored less every season since his breakout in 2017-2018 going from 29 goals to 26 goals to 16 goals (but only 57 games played).

Barzal had an outstanding rookie season at 85 points, but followed that up with 62. More goals this year in 68 games. He should have hit 70 points this season (unless he hit a slump). Would you pay him more than 10 million a year and hope the trend swings back up where he is a point per game player or would you be okay with hitting around the middle (and around 7-8 million) as a 70 point player?

Clayton Keller went from 23 goals to 14 back up to 17, but hasn't hit 60 points since his rookie season.

Can't forget Yanni Gourde and his 64 points and how Tampa Bay paid him 5.1 million. He is starting to already decline.

Hischier has his struggles, including health.

DeBrincat tore it up dispelling the sophomore slump? Or did he? Because after tearing it up with 41 goals, he is sitting at less than 20 (and probably wouldn't have hit 25 this season). He may get lucky and hit 60 points.

You can find data to back up really anything, peer reviewed or not. Is there a sophomore slump? You'll say no, others will say yes.

But paying a player based off of one good season can be dangerous. A good example of this is Chucky. Is he worth 4.9 million a season? He had a 30 goal campaign two seasns before he signed his third contract (15-16 he had 30 goals, he was still trending up with 17 goals in 61 games). So the Canadiens signed him to a three year deal at 4.9 million. Is he worth it? Was Rask worth his 4 million dollar contract that he signed shortly after hitting 21 goals and 48 points? That is the going rate for a 20+ goal scoring and 48 point center...
 
2Pair

2Pair

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Dr Jan Itor said:
If there was ever a time to throw a true wildcard into a playoff-type scenario, I can't think of a better one than this.
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If Stalock or Kahkonen can match or even outplay the other teams goalies, then the Wild can beat anyone in the West.
 
Nsjohnson

Nsjohnson

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Can you imagine if they let him play.

And he hits the icing running.

Scoring big goals. Huge smiles.

Instant fan favorite. Instant hero. Instant mega hype for next season. I would be SO stoked.
 
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