Post-Game Talk: Kings vs Kings castoffs: 7:07PM

[EroCaps]

It's hysterical how many fans are on the Orlov bandwagon while simultaneously criticizing Carlson for the kind of **** Orlie does repeatedly.

New toys.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Like I said, he's only playing UP with injuries. Regular season spot duty and being able to man the position effectively in the playoffs are two entirely different situations. That also speaks to him being able to control the QOC...of course not, the coaches see to that based upon where they rank him as a defender. Adds some huge context to your "fewest shots and scoring chances per 60 minutes of any Capitals defenseman" claims in support of him getting some 1D time. You think in the next two seasons Orlov will be placed in the top pair because he's won the position? I don't see it. The 2nd pair, sure, that's doable.

I look at stats as I do any other valuable input, just adds to the information available. Orlov doesn't look risky because he makes end to end rushes or because of his dangling ability. It's all because of his defensive lapses. Look at the goals against scored when Orlov is on the ice. Blown defensive coverages, often with him completely out of position, or beaten badly which caused a jailbreak the other way....THOSE are the things that stick out in MY eye test of Orlov as risky. He makes PLENTY of good plays and honestly is better than I expected from him this year, but he's not 1D better.

 

[Calicaps]

I'm curious if you've ever spent any appreciable amount of time around George McPhee.

 

[txpd]

I mean he gives up the fewest shots and scoring chances per 60 minutes of any Capitals defenseman this season but I guess I'll take your anecdotal evidence over statistical evidence because your evidence certainly can't be skewed by your personal feelings while statistics just straight up lie to people.

I'll be sure to run for cover next time Orlov's on the ice because bad things are bound to happen, like more shots and goals for the Capitals!

he is not on the power play and he is not on the penalty kill.

 

[twabby]

he is not on the power play and he is not on the penalty kill.

All the stats I have mentioned relate to 5v5 play only.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

I wonder why Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon hate the Capitals so much (scroll down to the third video on this page):

http://espn.go.com/nhl/

I wonder why Wilbon still has a career in this town after blaming Sean Taylor for his murder. I wonder why Kornheiser has a career in media at all.

 

[sycamore]

I wonder why Wilbon still has a career in this town after blaming Sean Taylor for his murder. I wonder why Kornheiser has a career in media at all.

These two are hardly students of the game -- I'm willing to bet the last hockey game Kornheiser saw was some NY Rangers game 50 years ago -- yet they feel qualified enough to comment on the Caps and predict their fate this year.

 

[Langway]

Blowhards gonna blowhard.

 

[Calicaps]

I wonder why Wilbon still has a career in this town after blaming Sean Taylor for his murder. I wonder why Kornheiser has a career in media at all.

These two are hardly students of the game -- I'm willing to bet the last hockey game Kornheiser saw was some NY Rangers game 50 years ago -- yet they feel qualified enough to comment on the Caps and predict their fate this year.

Blowhards gonna blowhard.

And yet, they are not wrong. The Caps have a lot to prove. Win and shut them up.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

And yet, they are not wrong. The Caps have a lot to prove. Win and shut them up.

THis.

 

[g00n]

And yet, they are not wrong. The Caps have a lot to prove. Win and shut them up.

Sadly, I think when/if the Caps win a Cup they'll pivot to some kind of self-congratulatory story about how they were secretly long-suffering fans who were merely practicing tough love due to their unbearable disappointment, which is unique to the world and greater than any regular fan's torment because of their proximity to the team through the media.

Book that one.

 

[marcel snapshot]

Sadly, I think when/if the Caps win a Cup they'll pivot to some kind of self-congratulatory story about how they were secretly long-suffering fans who were merely practicing tough love due to their unbearable disappointment, which is unique to the world and greater than any regular fan's torment because of their proximity to the team through the media.

Book that one.

Exactly correct. The fact is they completely missed the Ovechkin story while it was developing. They were the Post's 2 main sports columnists, and basically said nothing about him almost until Rock The Red was in full swing. Kornheiser, in particular, is just a massive tool.

 

[Calicaps]

Sadly, I think when/if the Caps win a Cup they'll pivot to some kind of self-congratulatory story about how they were secretly long-suffering fans who were merely practicing tough love due to their unbearable disappointment, which is unique to the world and greater than any regular fan's torment because of their proximity to the team through the media.

Book that one.

I'm sure you're right. I certainly didn't mean to suggest they are not both colossal ***** where the Caps are concerned. But at least they'll have to stop calling them choking dogs if they win.

 

[txpd]

All the stats I have mentioned relate to 5v5 play only.

so, the coaching staff likes his play so much that he gets no special teams time either way.

 

[twabby]

so, the coaching staff likes his play so much that he gets no special teams time either way.

The power play has been the best in the league for 4 years so I understand them not putting a LHD on the point when there has been a RHD there since Oates implemented the 1-3-1. I think he will see time there sooner rather than later because eventually teams will figure out the current 1-3-1.

As far as penalty killing, I think he should get a shot there. Maybe they like their other options more but I don't think that precludes Orlov from being a good option in the next few years.

Again, my statement isn't that he's a #1 now. My statement is I bet he's a #1 in the next few years because based on my eyes, his stats, and the trend in the NHL for more mobile and offensive defensemen, his early-career has been similar to those of other current #1s.

 

[HunterSThompson]

I really don't like feeling like I have to bash Orlov as often as I do. I like Orlov. I really like Orlov as a third pairing defenseman in low risk situations against teams third lines. He also definitely has the raw skills to eventually move up the lineup. Based on his defensive zone, I don't really see it as a first pairing guy. But a higher end second pairing offensive defensemen, sure.

A couple of stats:

Of the Capitals defensemen with 100 or more individual shot attempts for (5 of them), Orlov ranks last with a 34.2% block percentage. The top Capitals defenseman in this regard is John Carlson at 28.2%. Over 1/3 of Orlov's individual shot attempts are blocked by the opposing team.

I already mentioned his giveaways per TOI as being the highest on the D corp as well. While these are not a complete measure of risk because risk away from the puck is pretty impossible to measure, it may be some indication of his risk with it on his stick.

Orlov has been the best player for the Caps in relation to shot attempt differential%. It is interesting to note that he is not the best when it comes to actual shot differential%.

CA/SA - this will look at how many shot attempts it takes the opposing team to get a shot on net (in my mind this seems to be some sort of an indication of a player getting in lanes forcing blocks and misses and/or a lower shot quality). The higher the better.

Carlson 2.06
Alzner 2.01
Niskanen 2.00
Schmidt 1.97
Orlov 1.82

CF/SF This looks at the ability to get shot attempts on net. If you miss the net or get a shot blocked, there was a zero percent chance of it going in the net. (in my mind this may be an indication of poor shot choice and/or an inability to get others in a good shooting position). Lower is better.

Carlson 1.77
Alzner 1.85
Niskanen 1.88
Schmidt 1.89
Orlov 1.94

It is important to note that Chorney ranked lower than Orlov by two hundredths on the CF/SF scale, and ranked second last on the CA/SA scale, but his total shot attempt numbers were so far lower than everyone else, I just did not like it as close in sample size.

Now, it is certainly possible that his opponents play a role in these numbers. Perhaps he is playing against forwards that get in shooting lanes well, but have a hard time hitting the net on the other end of the ice (more or less a typical bottom six player). That is definitely possible and kinda part of the argument anyway.

 

[Raikkonen]

That's too complex of an analysis (based on some advanced stats which aren't conclusive much).

Orlov is 3rd pair D. Playing on his off side many nights. Playing after a year and half lost.

He's progressing. But he's worse than other dmen in some defensive aspects. We should wait another year and see where he is at then.

Orlov is tied with Alzner for ES points lead (19). 4 more points than Carlson. Niskanen has 12, Schmidt 13.

Whatever bad shot stats Dima generates, he's an offensive machine relatively speaking. You don't need to go advanced (enhanced TM) to see that.

We have good system, good D coach, Orlov is hard working, humble guy. And he happens to play better than in October. He'll be OK.

While he has no playoff experience we can't say what level of play he will be able to show in those circumstances. Same with Schmidt.

The bottom line. Those current advanced stats mean very little. He will either handle the pressure of fold under it.

 

[twabby]

I really don't like feeling like I have to bash Orlov as often as I do. I like Orlov. I really like Orlov as a third pairing defenseman in low risk situations against teams third lines. He also definitely has the raw skills to eventually move up the lineup. Based on his defensive zone, I don't really see it as a first pairing guy. But a higher end second pairing offensive defensemen, sure.

A couple of stats:

Of the Capitals defensemen with 100 or more individual shot attempts for (5 of them), Orlov ranks last with a 34.2% block percentage. The top Capitals defenseman in this regard is John Carlson at 28.2%. Over 1/3 of Orlov's individual shot attempts are blocked by the opposing team.

I already mentioned his giveaways per TOI as being the highest on the D corp as well. While these are not a complete measure of risk because risk away from the puck is pretty impossible to measure, it may be some indication of his risk with it on his stick.

Orlov has been the best player for the Caps in relation to shot attempt differential%. It is interesting to note that he is not the best when it comes to actual shot differential%.

CA/SA - this will look at how many shot attempts it takes the opposing team to get a shot on net (in my mind this seems to be some sort of an indication of a player getting in lanes forcing blocks and misses and/or a lower shot quality). The higher the better.

Carlson 2.06
Alzner 2.01
Niskanen 2.00
Schmidt 1.97
Orlov 1.82

CF/SF This looks at the ability to get shot attempts on net. If you miss the net or get a shot blocked, there was a zero percent chance of it going in the net. (in my mind this may be an indication of poor shot choice and/or an inability to get others in a good shooting position). Lower is better.

Carlson 1.77
Alzner 1.85
Niskanen 1.88
Schmidt 1.89
Orlov 1.94

It is important to note that Chorney ranked lower than Orlov by two hundredths on the CF/SF scale, and ranked second last on the CA/SA scale, but his total shot attempt numbers were so far lower than everyone else, I just did not like it as close in sample size.

Now, it is certainly possible that his opponents play a role in these numbers. Perhaps he is playing against forwards that get in shooting lanes well, but have a hard time hitting the net on the other end of the ice (more or less a typical bottom six player). That is definitely possible and kinda part of the argument anyway.

I can't let this post go. This is basically trying to come up with stats to make Orlov look bad. I guess I'll bite. I compared Orlov to some elite defensemen in the league. The main conclusion is these stats are kind of worthless for measuring defensemen, and even if they were worth something Orlov doesn't rate poorly in any of them:

Percentage of individual shots blocked:

Name				iCF Block %
Mark.Giordano		0.410628019
Justin.Faulk			0.390374332
Hampus.Lindholm		0.364864865
Erik.Karlsson		0.36013986
Duncan.Keith		0.349693252
[B]Dmitry.Orlov			0.346774194[/B]
Victor.Hedman		0.345
Oliver.Ekman-Larsson	0.326829268
P.K..Subban		0.319526627
Drew.Doughty		0.293532338
Shea.Weber		0.279069767
Dustin.Byfuglien		0.270531401
Aaron.Ekblad		0.224489796

Giveaways/minute:

Name				Giveaways/min
P.K..Subban		0.059926124
Dustin.Byfuglien		0.046848922
Hampus.Lindholm		0.045239348
Erik.Karlsson		0.038357653
Drew.Doughty		0.037676394
[B]Dmitry.Orlov			0.036189834[/B]
Victor.Hedman		0.030458346
Aaron.Ekblad		0.028147448
Justin.Faulk			0.027409498
Mark.Giordano		0.026318868
Duncan.Keith		0.023554099
Shea.Weber		0.018369912
Oliver.Ekman-Larsson	0.016375756

Percentage of shots against that are blocked by the below player when on the ice:

Name				iBS/CA
Mark.Giordano		0.112691466
Victor.Hedman		0.098554534
Erik.Karlsson		0.089160839
Hampus.Lindholm		0.081830791
Duncan.Keith		0.075242718
Shea.Weber		0.074844075
Justin.Faulk			0.05978898
Dustin.Byfuglien		0.058411215
[B]Dmitry.Orlov			0.056782334[/B]
Drew.Doughty		0.054982818
P.K..Subban		0.054229935
Aaron.Ekblad		0.048175182
Oliver.Ekman-Larsson	0.045054945