kings: alzner or kane?
- Thread starter LAKings88
- Start date
Scottkmlps
Registered User
but you need 6 dmen, so signing jj doesn't mean they can't use alznar too (assuming you project him as a #1 guy on the same level as the forwards available)...
looking at the kings system on forward you already have kopitar, frolov, brown, o'sullivan, cammalleri, tukonen, and lewis. thats 7 real good forward prospects so the top 2 lines look pretty set...but on the blueline the depth isn't nearly as good after jj.
now i agree that its a mistake to draft based on current needs but if you think alznar is on par with the forwards available i think that pick makes more sense for them.
I already posted this on the Kings board but I think it is rather pertinent to this discussion.
Who is the last defenseman to step in before the age of 20 and make an impact? Even Erik Johnson (a player touted for being NHL ready this year) still is not playing in the NHL....and even when he does he could have growing pains similar to what Bouwmeester had in Florida. Actually if you look at the defensemen drafted in the top 5 in the last 10 years there are more busts than those drafted in the latter part of the 1st round and beyond......which just proves how hard it is to predict the potential of a defenseman.
Here is a list of all the defensemen drafted in the top 5 in the last 10 years.
1997 - Eric Brewer -5th overall - Bust
1998 - Brad Stuart - 3rd overall - Good
****- Brian Allen - 4th overall - Bust
****- Vitali Vishnevsky - 5th overall - Bust
2000 - Rostislav Klesla - 4th overall - Bust
2002 - Jay Bouwmeester - 3rd overall - slow start....still good....not "great"
****- Joni Pitkanen - 4th overall - good start.....leveling off....good pick
****- Ryan Whitney - 5th overall - slow start......still to be determined
2004 - Cam Barker - 3rd overall - 1 NHL game......still to be determined
2005 - Jack Johnson - 3rd overall - "should" be good.....still to be determined
2006 - Erik Johnson - 1st overall - "should" be good.....still to be determined
So if you look at all of the defensemen selected in the top 5 over the last decade none of them have really reached their "potential". This is enough evidence to show me that Alzner probably will not either. Many if not most of these guys were touted even higher than Alzner is today. So how can anyone say he won't suffer a similar fate as the majority of these guys?
Who is the last defenseman to step in before the age of 20 and make an impact? Even Erik Johnson (a player touted for being NHL ready this year) still is not playing in the NHL....and even when he does he could have growing pains similar to what Bouwmeester had in Florida. Actually if you look at the defensemen drafted in the top 5 in the last 10 years there are more busts than those drafted in the latter part of the 1st round and beyond......which just proves how hard it is to predict the potential of a defenseman.
Here is a list of all the defensemen drafted in the top 5 in the last 10 years.
1997 - Eric Brewer -5th overall - Bust
1998 - Brad Stuart - 3rd overall - Good
****- Brian Allen - 4th overall - Bust
****- Vitali Vishnevsky - 5th overall - Bust
2000 - Rostislav Klesla - 4th overall - Bust
2002 - Jay Bouwmeester - 3rd overall - slow start....still good....not "great"
****- Joni Pitkanen - 4th overall - good start.....leveling off....good pick
****- Ryan Whitney - 5th overall - slow start......still to be determined
2004 - Cam Barker - 3rd overall - 1 NHL game......still to be determined
2005 - Jack Johnson - 3rd overall - "should" be good.....still to be determined
2006 - Erik Johnson - 1st overall - "should" be good.....still to be determined
So if you look at all of the defensemen selected in the top 5 over the last decade none of them have really reached their "potential". This is enough evidence to show me that Alzner probably will not either. Many if not most of these guys were touted even higher than Alzner is today. So how can anyone say he won't suffer a similar fate as the majority of these guys?
Few of the players you called "busts" may not be the best but are pretty darn solid. How about we go and do the same with forwards and see how it pans out. Will be the exact same....
Forwards....
1997...
- Joe Thornton
- Patrick Marleau
- Olli Jokinen
1998...
- Vincent Lacavalier
- David Legwand
1999...
- Patrick Stefan
- Daniel Sedin
- Henrick Sedin
- Pavel Brindl
- Tim Connelley
2000...
- Dany Heatley
- Marian Gaborik
- Raffi Torres
- Ilya Kovalchuk
- Jason Spezza
- Alexandr Svitov
- Stephen Weiss
- Stanislav Chistov
2002...
- Rick Nash
2003...
- Eric Staal
- Nathan Horton
- Nikolai Zherdev
- Thomas Vanek
2004...
- Alexander Ovechkin
- Evgeni Malkin
- Andrew Ladd
- Blake Wheeler
2005...
- Sidney Crosby
- Bobby Ryan
- Benoit Pouliot
2006...
- Jordan Staal
- Jonathan Toews
- Niklas Backstrom
- Phil Kessel
I don't know about you but the mjority of these guys are way better than any defenseman drafted over the last 10 years....especially the players in BOLD.
interesting that none of the bolded ones except Crosby were under 6' tall or weighed less than 200 lbs. Kane may turn out to be a fabulous NHL player but he will have a risk premium assigned to him on draft day because of his size. Scouts will have to access his abillity to overcome that at the NHL level. Shiny junior stats are nice but projection at the next level is even more important. That is why Alzner, Couture, and even vanReimsdyk may well go before Kane on draft day. we'll see...
Notice though how just as many players you left out are about equivalent to the number of failed defenders. If you make percentages I am sure it is pretty darn close. If we get Kane so be it I won't complain. I much rather have his teammate in Gagner though, or few other forward. What says Kane won't be just like P. Stefan, Daigle, etc. Skill does not mean talent. I'll take the player with a great overal game and hockey sense over the flashy player who lacks what it takes. Not saying Kane will not make it just saying nothing says he will, and nothing shows him as really being better then Alzner or few other forwards for that matter.
ukyo
Registered User
No, it's not that hard to predict potential of defensemen, it is hard to have the patience to allow them the required time to develop. Every guy you have on your list that isn't "still to be determined" is already a solid defenseman that is STILL DEVELOPING. In fact, the only guy you have listed as good (Stuart) I would say is the least valuable among them. Watermark is 4-5 years of NHL experience; it's been that way for decades. Sure there are some guys that light it up coming into the league like Phaneuf and Weber have recently but more often than not they are going to struggle for a few years while they gain their bearings.
Gump Hasek
Spleen Merchant
Thanks. You make a great point about Gagner's age as well, meaning that since he is almost one full year younger than Kane, one could argue that his development as a player actually exceeds that of Kane.
Not only that, but I'd bet that many of the same people that complained about Gagner's play at the WJC this year also complained about Toews not really standing out in the tournament last year. I'm not saying that by any means did Gagner in his first year on TC play as well as did Toews in his first year, just that it is a bit unrealistic to expect a barely 17 year old player to stand out in what amounts to a 19 year old tournament, especially when that 17 year old is relegated minor role - one that he is unaccustomed to.
If I was put into a position to select either player, I'd take Gagner straight up without any hesitation. Many pro scouts are probably thinking along the same lines, given the size and age disparity between the two.
daynus
Registered User
where do some of you people
figure that we are saying great things based on the WJC in regards to Alzner.
come on man, we watch hockey in the great white north. as well as smoke pot and drink beer. but seriously i've spendt more time watching him play, than the time i spend with my girlfriend.
I like the comparsion of Dave Ellet as downside and Wade Redden as upside.
figure that we are saying great things based on the WJC in regards to Alzner.
come on man, we watch hockey in the great white north. as well as smoke pot and drink beer. but seriously i've spendt more time watching him play, than the time i spend with my girlfriend.
I like the comparsion of Dave Ellet as downside and Wade Redden as upside.
Gump Hasek
Spleen Merchant
Agreed. I also see a bit of Ken Daneyko in his potential as well, which is certainly not a slight by any means.
Jared Ramsden
Registered User
I'm biased because I see Alzner play all the time, but the idea of having JJ and Alzner in your system would be pretty darn tough to pass up. That, and the fact that the Kings seem to have some good young talent up front already with the likes of Kopitar, O'Sullivan, Cammileri, Frolov etc...
sbtatter
Registered User
- Feb 27, 2005
- 2,371
- 9
There's a name from the past, man, was he a good take care of his zone defenceman. If I was Alzner I'd take a Ken Danenkyo career!! Good call.
I never said that Kane would be #1 over all the other forwards......But I honestly think that Alzner is a level below many of the forwards in this draft group (including Kane).
I saw another article on HF ranking players in the WHL.....Alzner was ranked behind Cody Franzen (drafted 79th overall in 2005), Kris Russell (drafted 67th overall in 2005), and Ty Wishart (drafted 16th overall in 2006). Which leads me to believe that if Alzner was a available in 2005 or 2006 he would not be a top 10 drafted player.....but in 2007 he is? That shows more of a weakness in defensemen in this draft than a strength for Alzner. I still think Alzner will be selected in the top 10. But he is not deserving of a top 5 pick in this years draft.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
And on HF, Datsyuk was once ranked the 11th best Wings prospect and Zetterberg was ranked the 20th best Wings prospect. I wouldn't put much stock in ANY of HF's prospect rankings. Remember, they also ranked O'Sullivan higher than Kopitar 
And on HF, Datsyuk was once ranked the 11th best Wings prospect and Zetterberg was ranked the 20th best Wings prospect. I wouldn't put much stock in ANY of HF's prospect rankings. Remember, they also ranked O'Sullivan higher than Kopitar
But those were guys playing in different leagues......this article was comparing players from the "same" league. Of course it is hard to compare someone like Kopitar against someone like O'Sullivan because they have entirely different levels of competition.
Karamazov
Registered User
You bring up interesting points but you stating several of those d-men are BUSTS is comlpetely ridiculous. It's obvious many d-men often take much longer to develope than do forwards. I'm no Brewer fan but he's certainly no bust. Vitali Vishnevsky (a punishing stay at home defender, and one of the league's best hitters) is a bust because he doesn't put up 50 points?! I'd gladly have him on my team. Rusty Klesla is already a bust is he? Nevermind he's an invaluable leader to his team and relied on in all key situations; because he hasn't dominated offensively (forgetting about his myriad injures which have slowed his progress?) he's a BUST. Mind boggling. Look at guys like Hainsey who many wrote off but are finally coming around after all these years. Brian Cambell took awhile too and people jumped all over him a couple years ago. Jovo would certainly have been a bust on your list before he came around. Just have patience with the kids on the back end before declaring them failures before they've had time to prove themselves...
Karamazov
Registered User
Gump Hasek
Spleen Merchant
I just drew that comparison because both play a sort of similar well rounded game of defense, are fundamentally solid, keep the game simple, & are strong in their own end of the rink.
I'm a big fan of Alzner's game.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
Depends what league you are talking about. Also look at the talent surrounding the prospect and evaluate that. Kopitar was playing in a much more competitive league on a below average team in Sodertalje. Same with Zetterberg and Datsyuk in Europe. They were playing against men, meaning they have to be pretty mature and well-rounded to be playing at such a high level.
Now when you compare a forward to a defenseman, you have to look at the impact the forward is going to bring to the team compared to a defenseman. The defender obviously draws on the tougher assignments, usually logging more minutes and playing in many various situations, with the man-advantage, with a disadvantage, protecting a lead, shutting down a sniper, etc.
You don't have to be flashy to be successful, especially if you are a defenseman. Look at the high and low end of the prospect. Alzner will be an NHL defenseman and regular roster player, and it is always a positive to select a prospect who will be an NHL player, just as all of those defenseman you listed.
I won't be disappointed if the Kings selected Kane and I won't be disappointed if the Kings selected Alzner. I want to see them draft an NHL player.
Well I agree with that....but when you are talking a top-5 pick would you be happy draftting the next Aaron Miller when the next Kariya or Frolov is still available?
I have already addressed this in another thread but......when a player is selected in the 1st round getting a solid NHL player is considered a success. But when drafting a guy with a top 5 pick the expectations go up just a bit. GM's expect a 1st line forward / 1st pairing defenseman / franchise goalie ....when they use a top 5 pick on a player. I called these guys busts not because they are bad players.....but becasue they definitely did not live up to the expectations that were set for them when they were originally drafted.
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