Kevyn Adams - New GM

[Chainshot]

I agree that it's a tough situation, but not addressing the issue isn't a solution. I know they don't want to disrespect a vet by sending him down to the minors and paying his salary (how does that work, btw, if there is no AHL season this year? or has the AHL confirmed they are playing?). Pegulas also weren't likely to greenlight a buyout. But if we are trying to prove to fans and our superstar that we have the means to make the post season, you have to do something even if it's the unpopular option of sending him down. Not like FAs are clamoring to come here anyways.



Agreed. The frustrating part for me is the fact that so many goaltenders were available this offseason. We could have seriously made an upgrade. I agree that they probably don't want to bury him and pay that salary, but what other options are there if you are looking to win games in what is likely a shortened season?

I would expect this won’t get addressed until everyone league-wide is done with arbitration hearings. Some teams are going to be squeezed, including the Sabres. It is hard to be patient though when dealing with this organization. Adams has inherited a mess and at the same time has another three years of eroded fan confidence in the ownership.

The Raanta idea is interesting.

 

[joshjull]

The issue with all of this is that Krueger, much like Adams, has zero track record of building a NHL team. He has zero proof of concept or success at a professional level. Sure, he had some success in the Austrian hockey league and some success running the Swiss national team (note: his success was that the swiss teams QUALIFIED for the olympics and WCs, not any actual winning), however, the bar to entry in the NHL is understandably MUCH higher.

All this is hinging on Krueger being able to succeed in the NHL, which is going to take a lot more than a 'positive mindset' or whatever platitude he's spewing today.

I know this is a thread about Adams, but the offseason moves have a clear Krueger influence to them, which is, at a minimum, is disturbing. It's not like we have a seasoned vet coach with years of proven experience and systems to work through and a deep knowledge of active NHL players and rosters. We have a coach who

A) Has never made the playoffs
B) Wasn't just not a head coach the last 6 years, not in the NHL for 6 years, he wasn't even in Hockey for 6 years.

Yet our GM is basically giving him his wishlist of players despite there being a disconnect between what the team needs are and what players they are adding.

We can all high five Adams for the Staal trade and signing Hall, but as I've said in other threads, this team had 5 major needs going into the offseason (Center depth, Scoring depth, defensive makeup, goaltending, and special teams)

This offseason:

1. Center depth - Partially Addressed (Staal for Johanssen is an obvious upgrade, Eakin in/Larsson out is at best neutral, if not a net negative)
2. Scoring depth - I'll give this one a fully addressed. Adding Staal and Hall clearly improves us in that area
3. Defensive Makeup - Completely unchanged. The depth signings don't address this at all
4. Goaltending - Unchanged
5. Special teams: PP potentially is better with better forwards. PK is probably about the same.

At best, I'd say Adams is halfway done with turning this from a lotto team to a playoff team.

You seem to be confusing my explanation of what Krueger/Adams are doing with me saying it will work. I have no idea if it will. I’m waiting to see on ice results before I start passing judgement.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

You seem to be confusing my explanation of what Krueger/Adams are doing with me saying it will work. I have no idea if it will. I’m waiting to see the on ice results first before I start passing judgement.

It’s worth noting that Krueger seems to legitimately believe in Eakin, Risto, and Montour. He knows what their numbers look like and still seems to actually want the these guys on the team, which is interesting. There may be reasons for his belief that isn’t showing up in RAPM, WAR, xGF, etc.

Miller and Hutton, on the other hand...I think he’d let go if he had the option.

 

[Team Cozens]

I am of the mind that the complete cap gridlock around the league may be to blame there. I doubt they want to park Hutton in Rochester and take on salary. But at the same time no one is likely eager to eat Hutton’s contract.

How do you go out and get one season of Staal and one season of Hall without addressing the goaltending. This should be an all in playoffs or bust mentality for the sake of Jack and resigning Hall next off season.

 

[Chainshot]

How do you go out and get one season of Staal and one season of Hall without addressing the goaltending. This should be an all in playoffs or bust mentality for the sake of Jack and resigning Hall next off season.

I would imagine they are trying but again, their is a lot of gridlock. I am expecting a move after arbitration ends.

 

[jc17]

It’s worth noting that Krueger seems to legitimately believe in Eakin, Risto, and Montour. He knows what their numbers look like and still seems to actually want the these guys on the team, which is interesting. There may be reasons for his belief that isn’t showing up in RAPM, WAR, xGF, etc.

Miller and Hutton, on the other hand...I think he’d let go if he had the option.

As much as I do value the stats available to us, I don't think the bad numbers are a death sentence.

Montour was at 56.5 GF% and 44.5 xGF%. We're told that GF% is deceptive because of sample size and that xGF is better, but the reality is that neither does a great job of predicting future outcomes. I think xGF is slightly better, but many people look at it as a sign the player's GF% WILL regress to that number which isn't the case. At the end of the day, I would prefer our coach and GM try to get players that pass the eye test and look good in the metrics, but when they don't I don't think all hope is lost.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

As much as I do value the stats available to us, I don't think the bad numbers are a death sentence.

Montour was at 56.5 GF% and 44.5 xGF%. We're told that GF% is deceptive because of sample size and that xGF is better, but the reality is that neither does a great job of predicting future outcomes. I think xGF is slightly better, but many people look at it as a sign the player's GF% WILL regress to that number which isn't the case. At the end of the day, I would prefer our coach and GM try to get players that pass the eye test and look good in the metrics, but when they don't I don't think all hope is lost.

I guess it's best to not put too much stock in one single figure, whether it's CF, xGF, or whatever. If a few of those numbers look bad, I don't think anything of it -- it's when ALL of the numbers look consistent (eg. Risto) when I start to put some stock in the story being told.

Anyway, Miller's numbers were really good before he got here and we saw what happened to him. Still waiting for an explanation from the analytics folks. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like a lot of these stats are still not good enough at isolating the individual player impacts -- proven by the fact that they tend to change significantly when a player changes teams.

 

[jc17]

I guess it's best to not put too much stock in one single figure, whether it's CF, xGF, or whatever. If a few of those numbers look bad, I don't think anything of it -- it's when ALL of the numbers look consistent (eg. Risto) when I start to put some stock in the story being told.

Anyway, Miller's numbers were really good before he got here and we saw what happened to him. Still waiting for an explanation from the analytics folks. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like a lot of these stats are still not good enough at isolating the individual player impacts -- proven by the fact that they tend to change significantly when a player changes teams.

The same way you say you if all the numbers look bad, I think the numbers project better with a bigger sample size. A guy's numbers for 500 minutes in a season might not predict the future, but multiple seasons of success or struggles is definitely a stronger sign, which seems to be one of the bigger concerns with eakin.

 

[Aladyyn]

I guess it's best to not put too much stock in one single figure, whether it's CF, xGF, or whatever. If a few of those numbers look bad, I don't think anything of it -- it's when ALL of the numbers look consistent (eg. Risto) when I start to put some stock in the story being told.

Anyway, Miller's numbers were really good before he got here and we saw what happened to him. Still waiting for an explanation from the analytics folks. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like a lot of these stats are still not good enough at isolating the individual player impacts -- proven by the fact that they tend to change significantly when a player changes teams.

Miller was still one of the 3 defensemen on this team to post a positive RAPM xG impact fwiw.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Miller was still one of the 3 defensemen on this team to post a positive RAPM xG impact fwiw.

Exactly. And the coach still sat him. Does that mean the coach ignores those stats or is it that those stats don't adequately measure the traits that he wants in a player?

Anyway, those RAPM charts often change noticeably whenever someone changes teams, which makes me question the amount of useful info we're really getting from them.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

I would expect this won’t get addressed until everyone league-wide is done with arbitration hearings. Some teams are going to be squeezed, including the Sabres. It is hard to be patient though when dealing with this organization. Adams has inherited a mess and at the same time has another three years of eroded fan confidence in the ownership.

The Raanta idea is interesting.

I find it amazing to consider a GM coming into his first job in the NHL with arguably two top 10 assets in the league (both under 25/locked up) and be considered a mess. I know I'm Mr. Positive and things REALLY need to improve but even with as bad as we were we were just 6 wins beind the leafs...Infact just 6 weeks before the league shut down we were 2nd to Boston ahead of the cup champs and TOR! There are pieces, Filled in 2 of our top 3 needs. Top winger/2C/Now it's the goalie (Obviously there are other holes and spots to be ideally filled but this is just major needs.) I think Ullmark deserves a chance, it was just his 2nd season as a starter or 50/50 guy. Again he had this team in 2nd place before getting hurt a month and a half 2 before it shut down, and I think the additions, with the year older development and the chances that SKinner will bounce back (as that is his career trajectory, also reunited with Eric) while guys like Cozens or Mittlestadt could break out with Eakin. Though picking up a Rantaa or someone like him would be smart, there's also UPL maybe soon too..as I know you're well aware

Sorry if that was a lot of Rambling Chainshot and Believe me I get the fed up/were trash attitude I do. I just haven't said anything on this board in almost a year and wanted to remind fans (Not paticularly you as I know you're intelligent) that there are worse organizations to join....or rosters I should probably change that too. LOL

 

[Sabre Dance]

I really didn't want to praise Adams this offseason but he's doing very well.

 

[OkimLom]

I really didn't want to praise Adams this offseason but he's doing very well.

I don't know if well is the term, I just think we've been so accustom to incompetent management, that we think he's doing a great job. He's doing BETTER than his predecessors.

 

[TehDoak]

I really didn't want to praise Adams this offseason but he's doing very well.

Eh. I'll save my judgement of him until later. He's resolved two major issues (Scoring and 2nd line center in Staal and Hall), though, on a very short term (1 year)

His fixes for goaltending (none), 3C/4C (Eakin and Lazar) and defense (none) are not good.

The RFA deals are fine. Would have liked to see a long term deal with Reinhart

Swap a RHD for a LHD and upgrade Hutton and I'd give him a B for the offseason. I have him at a C for now.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Eh. I'll save my judgement of him until later. He's resolved two major issues (Scoring and 2nd line center in Staal and Hall), though, on a very short term (1 year)

His fixes for goaltending (none), 3C/4C (Eakin and Lazar) and defense (none) are not good.

The RFA deals are fine. Would have liked to see a long term deal with Reinhart

Swap a RHD for a LHD and upgrade Hutton and I'd give him a B for the offseason. I have him at a C for now.

It's obviously not a final judgment but he's doing a good job.

 

[Buffaloed]

Final judgement is for when the Pegulas fire him and chant a new mantra as they dance around the rotting carcass.

 

[BloFan4Life]

Eh. I'll save my judgement of him until later. He's resolved two major issues (Scoring and 2nd line center in Staal and Hall), though, on a very short term (1 year)

His fixes for goaltending (none), 3C/4C (Eakin and Lazar) and defense (none) are not good.

The RFA deals are fine. Would have liked to see a long term deal with Reinhart

Swap a RHD for a LHD and upgrade Hutton and I'd give him a B for the offseason. I have him at a C for now.

The guy adds probably over 125 player points to the team during a pandemic and he gets a C. Get the heck out of here.

 

[TehDoak]

It's obviously not a final judgment but he's doing a good job.

The guy adds probably over 125 player points to the team during a pandemic and he gets a C. Get the heck out of here.

Let's take a step back: He's made two moves of consequence.

The Staal trade was undoubtedly a good move. We moved a player that didn't really fit with a veteran center with some tread left on the tire. A+ move.
The Hall signing was good as well. We added a former MVP one a 1 year deal. It was opportunistic. The high cap hit gives us some handcuffs, but still, in the big picture, a solid addition. Another A+ move.

After that though, things start to fall off the wagon. Girgensons, 3 years, 6.6M. I doubt he gets over 1-2 years 1M AAV on the open market. We overpaid in both term and dollars. Not a HUGE deal in the big scheme of things.

Eakin: 2 years, 2.25M. Again, a pretty meh deal. Guy was traded for a 4th rounder last year. He's a pretty average bottom 6 center. Another overpay for meh player.

Rieder and Lazar are both fine.

RFA deals are fine.

Really, the issue comes with what he hasn't addressed:

Goaltending and Defense.

While I get it isn't Adams fault the team is in bad shape, it's his responsibility to fix it. The job is still half finished, and I imagine the deals left to be made will be harder than the Staaal/hall deals.

He's fixed half the issues (on paper) so he gets a passing grade. To get a good grade, he has to at least address the defense and goaltending issues. Going in with the same 6D and 2 G as last year is asking for the same results.

 

[SabresFanNorthPortFL]

Doak, I think you should go from a C to B just because they actually have assembled a team. Instead of just putting a bunch of guys together, this offseason they actually "look" like they were looking at roles. I'm looking forward to this season just because of that. As Josh said, don't know if Krueger's system will work but at least they have identified how they want to play, the structure and players that will fit in that system...for that alone they get a B.

 

[OkimLom]

The guy adds probably over 125 player points to the team during a pandemic and he gets a C. Get the heck out of here.

His bottom 6 moves are at best equal to the talent this team had prior. He didn't move the needle much, even if he brought in a "true center", the talent level of that "true center" is still low for the "3C".

His top 6 is better, but it's for a short term growth (until they re-sign Hall to a longer deal, he's still not a part of the future; Same with Staal, and Reinhart) of 1 year. While some might justify that by saying he's buying time for guys like Cozens and Quinn, the fact is, those two players shouldn't be leaned on for another 2-3 years at the earliest. Right now, he's just kicking problems into next year.

For the 2020-2021 season he gets maybe a B-, but for structuring for longer term purposes, he's at a D+ for me at this time.

 

[BloFan4Life]

Let's take a step back: He's made two moves of consequence.

The Staal trade was undoubtedly a good move. We moved a player that didn't really fit with a veteran center with some tread left on the tire. A+ move.
The Hall signing was good as well. We added a former MVP one a 1 year deal. It was opportunistic. The high cap hit gives us some handcuffs, but still, in the big picture, a solid addition. Another A+ move.

After that though, things start to fall off the wagon. Girgensons, 3 years, 6.6M. I doubt he gets over 1-2 years 1M AAV on the open market. We overpaid in both term and dollars. Not a HUGE deal in the big scheme of things.

Eakin: 2 years, 2.25M. Again, a pretty meh deal. Guy was traded for a 4th rounder last year. He's a pretty average bottom 6 center. Another overpay for meh player.

Rieder and Lazar are both fine.

RFA deals are fine.

Really, the issue comes with what he hasn't addressed:

Goaltending and Defense.

While I get it isn't Adams fault the team is in bad shape, it's his responsibility to fix it. The job is still half finished, and I imagine the deals left to be made will be harder than the Staaal/hall deals.

He's fixed half the issues (on paper) so he gets a passing grade. To get a good grade, he has to at least address the defense and goaltending issues. Going in with the same 6D and 2 G as last year is asking for the same results.

I don't even know why I'm responding, but all I'm going to say that if you think adding Staal, Hall, Cozens, Thompson, Rieder, and Eakin, isn't going to change how your D and G produce, then it's tough to say anymore.

I think Ullmark is more than capable of winning you a Stanley Cup as a goalie in this league. He is good enough in this day and age of the NHL. With a shortened season, how many games is Hutton even going to play this year?

The D has pieces, they just didn't play all that well enough. If we were scoring more, I feel like I don't think I would care about the defense. Could they be better, absolutely, but I also feel like they were put in really bad spots when the offense was so bad.

I'm glad we are building the offense and not the defense. I will always be an advocate of scoring more versus defending more.

 

[BloFan4Life]

His bottom 6 moves are at best equal to the talent this team had prior. He didn't move the needle much, even if he brought in a "true center", the talent level of that "true center" is still low for the "3C".

His top 6 is better, but it's for a short term growth (until they re-sign Hall to a longer deal, he's still not a part of the future; Same with Staal, and Reinhart) of 1 year. While some might justify that by saying he's buying time for guys like Cozens and Quinn, the fact is, those two players shouldn't be leaned on for another 2-3 years at the earliest. Right now, he's just kicking problems into next year.

For the 2020-2021 season he gets maybe a B-, but for structuring for longer term purposes, he's at a D+ for me at this time.

Thompson-Eakin-Cozens
Rieder-Lazar-Girgensons

Please tell me your kidding when you say that is the same talent this team had prior. What prior are you talking about? Last year?

This league is a year to year league. Even guys on long term deals don't mean crap if they will be with the team. ROR had a long term deal. Skinner on the other hand came in with 1 year. There are a lot of situations going on right now with the league (Expansion draft, financial problems, etc.).

D+ Hahahahahahaha. Wanna know what is best long term for this team....MAKING THE PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR!!!!!!

 

[OkimLom]

Thompson-Eakin-Cozens
Rieder-Lazar-Girgensons

Please tell me your kidding when you say that is the same talent this team had prior. What prior are you talking about? Last year?

This league is a year to year league. Even guys on long term deals don't mean crap if they will be with the team. ROR had a long term deal. Skinner on the other hand came in with 1 year. There are a lot of situations going on right now with the league (Expansion draft, financial problems, etc.).

D+ Hahahahahahaha. Wanna know what is best long term for this team....MAKING THE PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR!!!!!!

Thompson-Eakin-Cozens - Thompson is a promising, but underwhelming player at the NHL level so far in his career. Eakin is a lesser player talent wise than Vesey was; even if he plays the "natural center" that we didn't have last season. Cozens is an unknown commodity right now, stating otherwise, you're doing so in bad faith.
Rieder-Lazar-Girgensons - Whether you have Rieder or Okposo on this line, it's still a worse version of the LOG line last season.

Making the playoffs this year, based on Kevyn's work so far, would be a small footnote in Sabres history surrounded by lack of playoffs if this is how Adams handles the future.

This isn't even factoring how much other teams around us has gotten better, and is further along for contention.

 

[Buffaloed]

This isn't even factoring how much other teams around us has gotten better, and is further along for contention.

The Leafs are killing it

• Wayne Simmonds
• Joe Thornton. ...
• Aaron Dell. ...
• Jimmy Vesey. ...
• Zach Bogosian. ...
• TJ Brodie
• Acquire Joey Anderson from New Jersey.

 

[OkimLom]

The Leafs are killing it

• Wayne Simmonds
• Joe Thornton. ...
• Aaron Dell. ...
• Jimmy Vesey. ...
• Zach Bogosian. ...
• TJ Brodie
• Acquire Joey Anderson from New Jersey.

because the leafs are the only team we need to worry about.