Rumor: Kevin Hayes

[The Abusement Park]

1) You think 6.6 million over 7 years is a fair deal for Hayes? I think anything over 6 is already an overpayment, and 7 years at over 6 is a huge overpayment.

2) The Flyers (and teams like them) exist. That's why he was always going to get overpaid. He'd have to turn down better offers to sign here if he was going to sign a reasonable deal here.

Honestly, are you trying to argue that he wouldn't get overpaid if not for the Flyers despite the clear evidence we have right in front of us that he wanted a 7 year deal at 7 million+? Do you think he'd have taken some sort of discount for the honor of playing for the Avs?

No I think that the Flyers panicked after making a trade for him. Talks didn’t seem to be going anywhere and then all the sudden Hayes gets a 7x7 deal with a NMC? I think the Flyers just really wanted to save face by not letting a guy they traded for go to UFA.

And I’d be fine with a 6.6x6/7 deal with Hayes.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Three years of NMC doesn't make much difference except for the expansion. (if you plan to try to dump him to seattle, no guarantee, you shouldn't sign him)

The term is the killer. I could have given him 7M for four years so it expires when MacK is due for his new shiny 15M deal.

He also has a modified NTC beyond the first 3 years that definitely plays a role in it.


7 years is a bit hefty also but 6 years would have been fine. Hayes is only 27 and I definitely think you'd get at least 4-5 more years of quality Top 6 forward play, and in the last year or two you likely still have an effective if overpaid 3rd line Center.


Its also a lot easier to move a bad contract with just one year left when they dont have any NTC protection like what we are seeing right now with Marleau.


The NTC/NMC is the real killer of that deal. Combined with the extra 500k/year that is already above market value IMO, and that 7th year... it combines for a really bad contract but take away the NMC and I think it would have been a deal you could handle and work with going forward.

 

[Raucherhusten]

Hayes needs to be a constant 60p scorer over the next 7 years to justify that contract even remotly. Call me crazy but i can't see that happening. This contract is bad bad super bad.

Just like Skinner's who needs to score 35-40 goals til he dies or EK's who needs to stay healthy for 8 straight years.

These contracts are nuts - all of them. And i'm extremely happy that these guys are not with the AVs for the next 7-8 years.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Except of course the guy who posted right above you...

And yeah a lot of people prefaced it, but I also had several arguments in which my entire point was he'll be overpaid and I had plenty of people telling me I was wrong.

You think 6M is overpaid for a quality 2C which is a ridiculous take to begin with.

 

[ASmileyFace]

I'm not the biggest Hayes fan to begin with so I wasn't stoked on the chance that we would sign him to a 6+ year long deal. Adding a NMC that overlaps with the expansion draft? Gross.

Glad the Flyers kept Hayes from hitting the open market. Lets find our 2c somewhere else.

 

[henchman21]

Okay, so with Hayes signing for 7.14 million over 7 years, can all the people who wanted Sakic to sign him please line up to eat some crow served up by those of us we knew Hayes would be severely overpaid and thus wasn't a good target for us?

I don't really enjoy saying "I told you so", but there were just too many people on this board absolutely convinced that he'd sign for 4-5 years at 6 million or less here, when all the evidence suggested he was a prime candidate to get a contract exactly like he ended up getting.

In any case it will make me happy to see people stop automatically adding Hayes into their expected Avs forward lines for next season.

It seems to me you enjoy it, or you wouldn't post this.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Hayes needs to be a constant 60p scorer over the next 7 years to justify that contract even remotly. Call me crazy but i can't see that happening. This contract is bad bad super bad.

Just like Skinner's who needs to score 35-40 goals til he dies or EK's who needs to stay healthy for 8 straight years.

These contracts are nuts - all of them. And i'm extremely happy that these guys are not with the AVs for the next 7-8 years.

I mean, I guess some people are just happy with mediocrity.

 

[MarkT]

It seems to me you enjoy it, or you wouldn't post this.

I was going to respond to this defending myself but I think you're just trying to bother me or something. Believe what you want.

You think 6M is overpaid for a quality 2C which is a ridiculous take to begin with.

Outside of last season he's a sub-50 point player who has scored more than 20 goals exactly once. To me that makes him a marginal 2nd liner. Even people arguing we should sign him were talking in positive terms about how he could drop down to the 3rd line in a few years. 6M for a 2nd liner is fine. 6M for a guy who could spend most of the deal on the 3rd line? That's terrible.

 

[Foppberg]

It seems to me you enjoy it, or you wouldn't post this.

It's his entire shtick lol

 

[MarkT]

It's his entire shtick lol

 

[Raucherhusten]

I mean, I guess some people are just happy with mediocrity.

Depth wins championships. I know that because i just watched the Finals.

When you start handing out these kind of contracts you'll get in trouble pretty fast because your bottom 6 and 3rd D pairing is a bunch of rookies and aging vets. Especially now when nobody knows how the Cap will change in the next few years.

Too much of a risk, too little to gain.

 

[henchman21]

We all laugh now, wait until Nyqvist is getting $7m here.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

We all laugh now, wait until Nyqvist is getting $7m here.

I mean, I'd be happy with it. So long as we dont go offering the full NMC and NTC as well.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Depth wins championships. I know that because i just watched the Finals.

When you start handing out these kind of contracts you'll get in trouble pretty fast because your bottom 6 and 3rd D pairing is a bunch of rookies and aging vets. Especially now when nobody knows how the Cap will change in the next few years.

Too much of a risk, too little to gain.

Except this is literally the exact formula to success.


Look at the team that just won the cup.

Gunnarsson and Dunn was the bottom pairing Defense. A vet and an ELC contract.


The bottom 6 had some combination of Blais, Sundqvist, Sanford, Barbashev, Thorburn, Fabbri, Thomas, and Bozak in it.


All players either on ELCs or making under 1M. Or veteran players filling a specific niche role within the bottom 6.



The way you win in this league is by paying for quality talent even if it means overpaying a little to get that talent. And then relying on good drafting to fill out the depth of the roster.

If the Avs are never willing to pay for that quality high end talent we will never win. Let alone the fact that our drafting is truly terrible over the last 10 years and doesn't have the most optimistic signs of improving yet either.