Hayes is a young, big center who has scored in the mid 40's while being mostly relegated to a 3rd line C. He is a 2nd line C this season. There should be little doubt he can return a 1st at the TDL w/o a dump coming back. That seems silly to even suggest it in a serious tone.
What players have returned 1st round picks at the TDL in the last 4 years that were UFAs at season's end? Honestly, is Hayes in that category?
2018 -Stasney, Nash (Brassard had 40% retained and had another year on his deal, Kane got a 2nd rounder with a conditional 1st if he signed an extension, Hartman was an RFA)
2017 - Shattenkirk, Hanzal
2016 - Ladd
2015 - Vermette (Coburn and Perron still had an additional year on their deals)
So there are 1 or 2 trades per year for UFAs that do return a 1st. Most often it's a 2nd + now. You can look at the Hanzel and Vermette trades and hope someone does something similar with Hayes but I think most people thought that Hanzal trade was terrible for the Wild. Is Hayes the only available center at the deadline like Vermette was? (Duchesne says hi)
There were a couple other bigger trades with multiple pieces heading each way where part of the return was a 1st but not for just the rental. I would be shocked if someone gave up a 1st for Hayes. I think it's fine for the Rangers to hope for a 1st for Hayes. I will be surprised if someone pays that price and don't agree that there is "little doubt" he can return a 1st. All those above players were 1st line players on the teams trading them away.
Hayes is a valuable piece. I'd love for the Jets to add him. I wouldn't pay a 1st rounder for him and if that's what it took I'd walk away.
