Confirmed with Link: Kevin Hayes 5: signs 7 years, $50M

Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
127,486
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Armored Train
I have never said Voracek is terrible, and you know that, "fake news" is beneath you.
I've just said because of his defensive deficiencies, Voracek isn't worth his contract, compare to G.
Scoring is just one aspect of the game.

People overrate scoring, especially PP scoring.
Since the PP and PK are "mirror images," being a top PK guy should be as valuable as being a top PP guy.

47th PP forward - 5.5 pp/60. PP1
140th PP forward - 3.8 pp/60 PP2
3 minutes a game, 82 games - about 22 points.
2 minutes a game, 15 points
2 minutes a game, PP2, 10 points
1 minute a game, PP2, 5 points

So PP scoring reflects both the quality of the player and opportunity.

PK is harder to measure, let's try GA/60 and xGA/60
30th forward allowed 5.3 G/60, 6.0 xGA/60
90th forward allowed 7.4 G/60, 6.8 xGA/60

2 minutes a game, 14-15 goals v 17-18 goals

The 3-4 goals a year gained with top PK players is similar to top PP players since the 6-9 point gain is equivalent to 2-3 goals a season (2.5 points per goal).

You're always on Voracek's case, and now you're presenting being better than Voracek as a worthy measure. Consider the optics, man!
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
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Funny how the people who love Voracek hate Hayes.

To me, they're similar in many ways, both big but soft (though Hayes is more physical, neither player uses their body the way they should), both don't consistently back check, both hold the puck way too long in the O-zone and get stripped, both are good at using their bodies to gain entry. Although Voracek is the better skater, both players lack a great burst and quickness. Neither player has an exceptionally high Hockey IQ.

Voracek is a first rate playmaker (though he's had unsustainable puck luck the last two years, check his On-Ice Sh%), while Hayes is a better shooter and has had bad puck luck here.
Voracek is better on the PP, though the league has caught up to him, they play him to pass b/c they know he has a subpar shot.
Hayes was a solid PK last year, though not this season (injury? or coaching, passive PK doesn't really suit him).

Neither played up to their contract this past season, though neither was a disaster either.
 

flyerslducks

Registered User
Feb 15, 2017
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Funny how the people who love Voracek hate Hayes.

To me, they're similar in many ways, both big but soft (though Hayes is more physical, neither player uses their body the way they should), both don't consistently back check, both hold the puck way too long in the O-zone and get stripped, both are good at using their bodies to gain entry. Although Voracek is the better skater, both players lack a great burst and quickness. Neither player has an exceptionally high Hockey IQ.

Voracek is a first rate playmaker (though he's had unsustainable puck luck the last two years, check his On-Ice Sh%), while Hayes is a better shooter and has had bad puck luck here.
Voracek is better on the PP, though the league has caught up to him, they play him to pass b/c they know he has a subpar shot.
Hayes was a solid PK last year, though not this season (injury? or coaching, passive PK doesn't really suit him).

Neither played up to their contract this past season, though neither was a disaster either.
voracek scores more and hayes doesn't. next
one is a center and supposedly a defensively responsible one at that.
one is on the pk and was terrible at it

hayes was paid for all of these things and was terrible. It will only get worse later in the contract even if he is moved toward the wing because he isn't as offensively gifted as voracek. I highly doubt that he will score 60+ as a winger when he is 31 like voracek
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
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voracek scores more and hayes doesn't. next
one is a center and supposedly a defensively responsible one at that.
one is on the pk and was terrible at it

hayes was paid for all of these things and was terrible. It will only get worse later in the contract even if he is moved toward the wing because he isn't as offensively gifted as voracek. I highly doubt that he will score 60+ as a winger when he is 31 like voracek

He'll also be a significantly lower % of the cap when he's 31 in 3 seasons as the cap escalates again with the new TV deals.
Voracek was 10% at 31 this season, Hayes will probably be 8% or so in 2023-24 (if the cap rises to $88M, 5% a year after remaining flat next season).

Hayes will also be a better goal scorer at wing than Voracek, he's a better shooter, and he'll be better defensively than Voracek.
And we'll see if his PK play this season was an anomaly.
He actually played as well as Voracek on the PP this season 3-6 9 v 0-8 8. Hayes 18 GF/1 GA, Voracek 14/5. Voracek had the edge on xGF.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
89,441
155,158
Pennsylvania
Always remember guys:

Good offensively + Mediocre-to-Bad defensively = Unacceptable
Bad offensively + Mediocre-to-Bad defensively = Ideal player

As for Hayes, he just sucks in general because he's either insanely selfish or insanely stupid. Maybe both. There's a reason most players look drastically better away from him. Especially good players who we want to have the puck.
 

flyerslducks

Registered User
Feb 15, 2017
12,737
13,584
He'll also be a significantly lower % of the cap when he's 31 in 3 seasons as the cap escalates again with the new TV deals.
Voracek was 10% at 31 this season, Hayes will probably be 8% or so in 2023-24 (if the cap rises to $88M, 5% a year after remaining flat next season).

Hayes will also be a better goal scorer at wing than Voracek, he's a better shooter, and he'll be better defensively than Voracek.
And we'll see if his PK play this season was an anomaly.
He actually played as well as Voracek on the PP this season 3-6 9 v 0-8 8. Hayes 18 GF/1 GA, Voracek 14/5. Voracek had the edge on xGF.

he scores like a few more than him a season lol. Why we acting like he scores 15 more goals lol. Voracek was paid to score and he does it even though its a little too much $$ at this time of his contract. Later in hayes contract, he will be much slower than he is now (he isn't a great skater already and will decline more than voracek who is still a better skater now than hayes) & wont be used for his position mostly if moved to wing (which is what he was pretty much brought here for). So if he isn't going to be all that defensively reliable given he will slow down, wtf is he going to do since he isn't the scorer like voracek is later in the contract?

end of the day, well just have to agree to disagree about this lol/wait it out until we see how hayes ends up
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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Hayes, players with and without last two seasons:

Giroux xGF 55.60%, without 53.33%
Voracek xGF 46.99%, without 50.76%
JVR xGF 56.45%, without 53.98%
Farabee xGF 49.57%, without 48.14%
Laughton xGF 49.82%, without 48.18%
TK xGF 50.46%, without 54.72%

So four players played better WITH Hayes, two players played better away from Hayes
 

CSKA1974

Registered User
Feb 10, 2010
6,282
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Flyerville
Hayes, players with and without last two seasons:

Giroux xGF 55.60%, without 53.33%
Voracek xGF 46.99%, without 50.76%
JVR xGF 56.45%, without 53.98%
Farabee xGF 49.57%, without 48.14%
Laughton xGF 49.82%, without 48.18%
TK xGF 50.46%, without 54.72%

So four players played better WITH Hayes, two players played better away from Hayes
Honest question from the person that is completely ignorant about these metrics.
Are the differences significant in all 6 cases? I.E. is there a statistical or relevant difference in Roo's 55.6% vs. 53.3%. What is the margin of error on these data?
 
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deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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Honest question from the person that is completely ignorant about these metrics.
Are the differences significant in all 6 cases? I.E. is there a statistical or relevant difference in Roo's 55.6% vs. 53.3%. What is the margin of error on these data?

Who knows? Haven't seen standard deviation numbers for any of these stats.
And it would depend on sample size, I just used the players with significant minutes with Hayes.

Not surprised that Hayes - Voracek doesn't look good, am surprised by TK.
Farabee and Laughton are small enough to be "noise," the other four are pretty substantial.
 

CSKA1974

Registered User
Feb 10, 2010
6,282
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Flyerville
Who knows? Haven't seen standard deviation numbers for any of these stats.
And it would depend on sample size, I just used the players with significant minutes with Hayes.

Not surprised that Hayes - Voracek doesn't look good, am surprised by TK.
Farabee and Laughton are small enough to be "noise," the other four are pretty substantial.
Thank you! Appreciate the honest answer.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
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Jake on average scores 20 more points a season.

If Hayes scored 65 points a season, he would much more tolerable. And Jake gets PLENTY of backlash even with averaging over 65+ points every year with us. Let's no pretend that Jake only gets praised on a daily basis around here.

Hayes doesn't need to score like Voracek, he just needs to score like "normal" Hayes and play the PK like normal Hayes.
As a center, as generally a better defensive player, better goal scorer, you don't expect the same level of overall scoring.

Hayes scores at a 2C level, and as a PP2, but he needs to play better defense and PK than last season.
He could also use some stability at wing, Farabee and Allison on a steady basis might be the answer.

Pairing him with Voracek is like pairing Braun and Hagg, you wonder what coaches are looking at when they watch film.
 

wasup

Registered User
Mar 21, 2018
2,443
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Injury,s quite often explain things and we are not privy to that info . It's good to hear that something was wrong rather than he was just playing poorly cause he had quit .
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
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Some injuries, the doctors tell the player you can't make it worse, so it comes down to pain tolerance. If it's only a 1-2 month rehab, then players often choose to play through an injury.
I think if Patrick is playing his normal game and Frost is healthy, they shut down Hayes.

Which also explains why players have different views of teammates at times than fans, when players know a teammate is playing through a painful injury to help make the playoffs, he gets a lot of brownie points.

It probably impacted his burst, sounds like the kind of injury that hurts when you push off, but not as much once you're moving.
 
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