Keeping Barrie/Defense Past This Season

[namttebih]

Right off the bat, do the following look like plausible contract extensions for Barrie and Dermott?

Barrie 7 x $7.75
Late 20s UFA comparables:
Spurgeon 7 x $7.58, McDonagh 7 x $6.75, Carlson 8 x $8.0

Dermott 2 x $2.75
Early 20s RFA comparables
Sanheim 2 x $3.25 Carlo 2 x 2.85

Secondly, I realize that top 4 minutes will be a lot to ask for for a sophomore in Liljegren but this is just to be used as an example.

2019/20
Muzzin/Barrie
Rielly/Ceci
Dermott/Liljegren
Sandin 9 games
Cap hit of $18.476

2020/21
Rielly/Barrie
Dermott/Liljegren
Sandin/700K
Cap hit of $17.92

My point is that all of the talk that Barrie will walk next year may not be in the cards. Also that our defense going forward should be as great of a concern as some make it out to be.

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[Advanced stats]

We can actually keep muzzin as well, based off of my numbers above.
Trade Kerfoot, bridge Dermott

Substitute any of the sub-1 million guys as you like.

Next year's cap might actually be easier than this season.

 

[Legion34]

View attachment 255485 View attachment 255487 View attachment 255489 We can actually keep muzzin as well.
Trade Kerfoot, bridge Dermott

Substitute any of the sub-1 million guys as you like.

Next year's cap might actually be easier than this season.

Yep those are options. If Kerfoot doesn’t work out as a C. Then you can trade him for cheaper options. Or mango.

Either way. There are tons of free agents on the market. We will have 8-11 million in cap. For 2 D.

We will be fine.

 

[namttebih]

View attachment 255485 View attachment 255487 View attachment 255489 We can actually keep muzzin as well, based off of my numbers above.
Trade Kerfoot, bridge Dermott

Substitute any of the sub-1 million guys as you like.

Next year's cap might actually be easier than this season.

I think that Muzzin would get $5+ on the open market

 

[Advanced stats]

Yep those are options. If Kerfoot doesn’t work out as a C. Then you can trade him for cheaper options. Or mango.

Either way. There are tons of free agents on the market. We will have 8-11 million in cap. For 2 D.

We will be fine.

I'm trading Kerfoot, because I'm probably least attached to him of all of our guys in and above that pay grade.

I also believe Nylander is at his best when he's playing center.

 

[Legion34]

I'm trading Kerfoot, because I'm probably least attached to him of all of our guys in and above that pay grade.

I also believe Nylander is at his best when he's playing center.

Maybe? I would personally trade AJ.

But we will see how it goes.

 

[Advanced stats]

I think that Muzzin would get $5+ on the open market

I'll admit, I am counting on him taking a bit of a hometown discount to stay in Toronto.

That said, the UFA market is getting odd and smarter, as evidenced by Gardiner's deal.

Even so, we could pay him near 5 million, and then run a 22 man roster. Options are there.

 

[qqaz]

Right off the bat, do the following look like plausible contract extensions for Barrie and Dermott?

Barrie 7 x $7.75
Late 20s UFA comparables:
Spurgeon 7 x $7.58, McDonagh 7 x $6.75, Carlson 8 x $8.0

Dermott 2 x $2.75
Early 20s RFA comparables
Sanheim 2 x $3.25 Carlo 2 x 2.85

Secondly, I realize that top 4 minutes will be a lot to ask for for a sophomore in Liljegren but this is just to be used as an example.

2019/20
Muzzin/Barrie
Rielly/Ceci
Dermott/Liljegren
Sandin 9 games
Cap hit of $18.476

2020/21
Rielly/Barrie
Dermott/Liljegren
Sandin/700K
Cap hit of $17.92

My point is that all of the talk that Barrie will walk next year may not be in the cards. Also that our defense going forward should be as great of a concern as some make it out to be.

I really like the numbers and comparables you have for Barrie and Dermott. Either guy could end up with more or less what you're describing here.

There's wiggle room, for sure. If Barrie can be extended, then it's going to take some clever wiggling. But you've shown it is possible. If Barrie doesn't stay past this season, then we have a whole bunch of options open up. I don't know if any are better than just keeping him, but they're there.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Barrie is a guy we have a backup for in Sandin after 2-3 years in nhl. We may lose a little for a year or two.
Muzzy we have no backup for his type.
Lily can replace a 2nd liner.
Muzzy resigned at 4-5M per for 3 years. Dermott bridged.
Ceci is a ???????. If he plays great we keep him 1 more year or we let him hit UFA or we trade for 1st rounder next year to replace Marleau lost pick.

Next Season:
Rielly Dermott
Muzzy Lily
Harpur Sandin

 

[Leafsdude7]

I think you can penny-pinch your way to being able to keep both Barrie and Muzzin at reasonable contracts.

Am I nuts to think we could keep Barrie at 7x7? Maybe 7x7.25? That cuts another 500k at least. Duszak, Aberg and Shore could be replaced with 750k guys, and you could cut one of them outright to save that money as well. That gets you up to 1.6M. Dermott's at 3M in your CapFriendly numbers when you made a good argument he should be limited to $2.75M, so there's another 250k.

Give Muzzin 5x5.5 (I think that's a reasonable offer?) and it should fit.

 

[The Iceman]

I think Dubas is opposed to signing guys into their mid 30s. don't think you have to give out those long deals anymore unless it is a top-tpo player. See Gardner.

 

[moon111]

2013-2019 NHL Defensemen 1st assists.
#1 Erik Karlsson 160 447gp
#8 Tyson Barrie 121 442gp
#10 P.K. Subban 115 443gp
#18 Morgan Rielly 91 470gp
#28 Jake Gardiner 77 479gp
#35 Jake Muzzin 71 470gp
#62 Code Ceci 49 440gp
#90 Ron Hainsey 38 477gp
#154 Roman Polak 22 413gp
#189 Luke Schenn 17 377gp
#199 Carl Gunnarsson 15 357gp
#228 Connor Carrick 12 201gp
#231 Martin Marincin 11 201gp
#259 Travis Dermott 9 101gp
#306 Ben Harpur 5 103gp
#320 Jordan Schmaltz 4 42gp

 

[mydnyte]

I'd trade the lot of them... and grab some cheap talented youth.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Barrie would have to take a bit of a discount from his rumored asking price in order to also keep Muzzin, who I don't think would get paid significantly more than he is right now. The Leafs have more cap space next season than people realize and I think its certainly possible to keep Barrie and or Muzzin next season, but it will be a bit tight in the short term, but the long term outlook is much better

 

[leburn98]

I would rather let this year play out before determining what the D should look like. A lot can happen in a year. Maybe someone like Moore improves or a Marlie is called up and steals a spot, making one of Johnsson/Kappy expendable. Maybe Sandin comes in and becomes a legit replacement for Muzzin on the left side. Heck, Barrie and/or Kerfoot could be total disasters and we could be wishing for them to leave. We also don't know who could be available in UFA or via trade.

 

[nuck]

It really depends on how he plays, and the guys coming up underneath him. He isn't worth $7.75 x 7 to me unless he is better than Rielly who they would trade to make space. He Morgs and Muzzin would make this team top heavy on D just like the forwards except two of these guys would have fat deals into their mid 30s. If he absolutely lights it up then let Muzzin go because LD are a lot easier to find, but they need some friendly contracts to offset their crazy spending on forwards. Dermott and Sandin may have a big say in that decision

 

[gabeliscious]

View attachment 255485 View attachment 255487 View attachment 255489 We can actually keep muzzin as well, based off of my numbers above.
Trade Kerfoot, bridge Dermott

Substitute any of the sub-1 million guys as you like.

Next year's cap might actually be easier than this season.

I cannot see the leafs playing nylander on the 3rd line. I think the guy them move is kapanen. We need kerfoot because he is a center. If he sucks a center for us then that is a different story but i think kaps the guy.

Johnsson. Matthew. Nylander
Hyman. Tavares. Marner
Mikheyvev. Kerfoot. Bracco?
Moore. Goat. Xxxxx

Rielly. Dermott
Muzzin. Barrie
Sandin. Lily

Would be very tight. Barrie would nee to be in the $7.5 range. Dermott in the $2.5 range and muzzin in the $5 range. Would love it but would not bet on it

 

[namttebih]

I think Dubas is opposed to signing guys into their mid 30s. don't think you have to give out those long deals anymore unless it is a top-tpo player. See Gardner.

I think that the top tier true #1 guys are closer to $9-11 per. The guys that I listed are all second tier guys IMO. Still top pair but not elite. I think that Gardiner is in the next tier below that. I would include Muzzin in that group and think that he would sign for 4 years. I think that the caveat with Gardiner for AAV was the uncertainty of his back.

 

[namttebih]

2013-2019 NHL Defensemen 1st assists.
#1 Erik Karlsson 160 447gp
#8 Tyson Barrie 121 442gp
#10 P.K. Subban 115 443gp
#18 Morgan Rielly 91 470gp
#28 Jake Gardiner 77 479gp
#35 Jake Muzzin 71 470gp
#62 Code Ceci 49 440gp
#90 Ron Hainsey 38 477gp
#154 Roman Polak 22 413gp
#189 Luke Schenn 17 377gp
#199 Carl Gunnarsson 15 357gp
#228 Connor Carrick 12 201gp
#231 Martin Marincin 11 201gp
#259 Travis Dermott 9 101gp
#306 Ben Harpur 5 103gp
#320 Jordan Schmaltz 4 42gp

Sorry, what's your point? (Not being a dick, genuine question)

 

[namttebih]

I'd trade the lot of them... and grab some cheap talented youth.

Trade who? When?
Isn't Rielly, Dermott, Liljegren and Sandin enough?

 

[MJ65]

It's not going to be cheap - the prices are going to go up

Barrie $8.5 - $9 M
Muzzin $5.5 - $6 M

You can sign one of those or else you need to trade some one of our current roster

 

[Gary Nylund]

Sorry, what's your point? (Not being a dick, genuine question)

My guess is that there isn't a specific point, just sharing information that he thought some might find interesting (I did).

 

[Buds17]

Beyond a cap issue, there might also be some long term projecting at play here. If the intention is to build a group including Rielly, Dermott, Liljegren and Sandin, what roles are the latter three projected to grow into? If three or all four of them could be part of a future top four, it might make more sense to consider shorter term (up to, and including, 4 years) options instead of Barrie and/or Muzzin, assuming either or both are looking for long term deals (5+ years).

I'd like to think Dubas wouldn't have traded for either if he had zero intention of re-signing them, but there's obviously risk and reward with both signing sooner and signing later on.

 

[Trapper]

We will have to see how the season goes.
We want to win now with 5 years of Matthews + JT.

If Muzzin/Barrie form one of the leagues best D pair it’s going to be hard not to keep them.
Sandin/Lily/etc. sound great but are so NHL unproven. You can’t run 40 mil in forwards and a 10 cent D + support.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We will have to see how the season goes.
We want to win now with 5 years of Matthews + JT.

If Muzzin/Barrie form one of the leagues best D pair it’s going to be hard not to keep them.
Sandin/Lily/etc. sound great but are so NHL unproven. You can’t run 40 mil in forwards and a 10 cent D + support.

I agree. I'd be willing to part with some forward talent if it meant we could keep Rielly, Barrie, Muzzin and Dermott for our top 4 next season.

That said, long way to go. Maybe they don't perform the way we hope they will. Maybe Ceci is better than people think and we'd want to keep him instead if he's good enough and better value. A lot of other variables in the mix as well so we'll see what happens.