I'd keep Pasta and Eichel over Vas. Unles goalies are weighted very heavily in your league. I don't like to keep or draft goalies high it's by far the most inconsistent position
I'll respectfully disagree with your philosophy on goalies, given that there are only approximately 25 true starters (some tandems) in the league and 16 playoff goalies. While a goalie may be inconsistent year to year (Price is a glaring recent example of this) the team a goaltender plays for also factors in. There are approximately 8 contenders for the cup in any given year - in a 12 team league, there is no guarantee a good goalie on a decent team is available without picking a goalie early, especially with 36 keepers being retained.
I'd go with Pasta, Vasilevskyi, Karlsson and Tarasenko as the keepers given the information you've provided.
Karlsson should be performing at a high level from game 1 this year. Tarasenko should trend up from a down year by his standards, Vasilevskyi (and Tampa) should continue strong - I can't see them not contending for the division crown as well as the cup this spring.
Pasta showed a whole new level of play in the playoffs, to back good regular season numbers - I wonder how much more he can improve in the upcoming season.
Eichel, concerns me injury wise. He's got the biggest room to improve, simply by playing an 82 game season... Should he do that, it's a coin flip between him and Pasta - but I think BOS (especially the Marchand, Bergeron, Pasta line) is a safer bet for +/- which I believe is a standard category.