Keep the Vegas Pick?

Do you keep the pick?


  • Total voters
    54

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,377
London, ON
I wonder what the difference is (if any) between a high 20 something pick and #12?

I get what you're saying about the #6 pick overall - just that Holland is the type that might listen to offers.

Solid Question which i can actually answer.
As you all know i redrafted a lot of the draft years and can tell you all the 12 vs 20th picks:

Year: 12th pick vs 20th pick
2005: Hornqvist vs Sobotka
2006: Brassard vs C. Stewart
2007: Muzzin vs B. Sutter
2008: Henrique vs Scandella
2009: M. Hoffman vs Kulikov
2010: Faulk vs K. Hayes
2011: Zibanejad vs Manson
2012: Galchenyuk vs Skjei

(I.e. a pretty solid difference)
these are redraft positions so eliminates busts and includes all home run picks.


Edit: Oh, I also noticed I misread the question... High 20 something pick would be much much worse than 20.

Actual Drafts:

2005: M. Staal vs McArdle
2006: B. Little vs D. Fischer
2007: McDonagh vs Esposito
2008: Myers vs Del Zotto
2009: De Haan vs Josefson
2010: Fowler vs B. Bennett
2011: R. Murphy vs C. Murphy
2012: Grigorenko vs S. Laughton

I think #20 has been uncharacteristically a crappy pick for a while.
But there is a big difference between 12 and 20 IMO.

In reality huge difference
In a Re-draft, still fairly significant

Edit: i just saw you said high 20 something not "20" exactly...

so if we are talking our #27.... its going to be a massive difference.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: FMichael

ShelbyZ

Registered User
Apr 8, 2015
3,799
2,561
Historically, draft day (or in the days leading up) deals that involve picks at the end of the 1st round are most often moved in trade up or trade down scenarios involving only picks.

I think if Holland moves the Vegas 1st, it's in some kind of move up or move down situation on draft day.

I doubt after touting about how many picks the Wings were able to hoard, Holland goes and packages this pick with a 2nd or 3rd to move up in the 1st. The more likely scenario would be Holland moving the pick to "move down" and turn the pick into a couple of other early round picks.

Wouldn't be a surprising move from Holland as he's done it a few times in his tenure as GM:

-1998 Draft: Traded #41 for #55 and #111
-2006 Draft: Traded #29 and #152 for #41 and #47
-2009 Draft: Trader #29 for #32 and #75
-2011 Draft: Traded #24 for #35 and #48

That being said, those moves were likely made to make up ground during a period of time where the Red Wings would usually be a pick or more short from making additions at the trade deadline.

I could see a trade like the one from 2006 making the most sense as the Wings would move down slightly in one sense but way up for another. They could package the Vegas 1st with one of the 3rds from the Pens or Flyers for a couple of 2nds. Not sure who that would work with though. Montreal has #35, #38, #56 and an additional pick that will end up #57-62. The Islanders have #41 and #43, but they also already have #11 and #12 in the 1st.

Another possibility might be to shop the pick to a team that is short some or doesn't have any early picks. Of note, and as it currently sits, Nashville's first pick doesn't come until late in the 3rd (#86-93) and the Flames don't pick until #105. While the Sharks will have their late 1st, they don't have a 2nd or 3rd and won't have a 1st or 2nd in 2019. Deals like that might pick up a decent player, a prospect or a package of future picks. The Red Wings would also have competition since the Rangers have the 1sts from Boston and Tampa, and Chicago has Nashville's.

As far as trading for a "young defensemen" goes, if it's a top 4 guy ready to step in the line-up, the pick probably doesn't make it happen on it's own. You can use some recent draft day trades made with late 1sts to gauge value:

2016: #30 and a 2nd in the next years draft to get the RFA rights to Andersen (and IIRC, they had already agreed on a contract)
2017: #30 and Oskar Sundkvist for one year of Ryan Reaves and #51
2017: #27, a conditional 1st from 2018 or 2019 and Jori Lehtera (a cap dump likely somewhat offsetting one of the 1sts) for 4 years of Brayden Schenn

IMO, they should just draft a player with the Vegas pick.
 
  • Like
Reactions: njx9

ShelbyZ

Registered User
Apr 8, 2015
3,799
2,561
Knowing Kenny he might package the 6th with a crap contract trade down a couple picks.

Did the datsyuk trade with zona at the draft recently.

To give up a top 10 pick, the other team would have to be taking on more than one crap contract... The Vegas 1st or even one of the early 2nds would be more than ideal to couple with a bad deal, if they are indeed desperate to move space.

That said, the Datsyuk situation was unique. His deal was completely dead money for the Wings, but since he was playing in the KHL it would cost the acquiring team $0 in actual money being paid out.

And that trade was more than just trading down a couple picks to get rid of a bad contract. In fact, Arizona was getting rid of a bad contract (for them at least) as well. The Wings traded #16 and Datsyuks last year (which would cost the Coyotes $0 in real money) for #20, #53 and the rest of Joe Vitale's contract (a player that was essentially LTIRetired, which meant unlike Datsyuk, he still needed to be paid real $$ for 16-17). #16 for #20 and #53 is actually a pretty good trade on its own. The rest of it was the Red Wings getting around $6.3M in cap relief in exchange for giving the Coyotes additional salary floor protection and saving them $1,116,667 of real salary due to a LTIRetired player for 16-17.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Oddbob and rhef3

razor ray

Registered User
May 8, 2011
1,510
1,586
I think the NYI would be good trade partners for Det if they keep Tavares. Perhaps something like this with JT staying:

Det:
#12 Pick
Greiss

To NYI
AA
Howard
Vegas Pick


NYI parts ways with a terrible goalie and gets an upgrade in Howard. NYI also adds AA to a good forward group. Det continues with the tanking with Griess and adds another good prospect at #12. Det would then have picks

#6
#12
#33
#36
#61
#81
#87
 

masta8

Registered User
Apr 26, 2018
355
94
I think the NYI would be good trade partners for Det if they keep Tavares. Perhaps something like this with JT staying:

Det:
#12 Pick
Greiss

To NYI
AA
Howard
Vegas Pick


NYI parts ways with a terrible goalie and gets an upgrade in Howard. NYI also adds AA to a good forward group. Det continues with the tanking with Griess and adds another good prospect at #12. Det would then have picks

#6
#12
#33
#36
#61
#81
#87
if JT stays in NY then I will guess that he will talk management into pursuing a better starting goalie this offseason as chip for wanting to stay and I doubt howard would cut it. if this was 5 years ago then maybe
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,377
London, ON
if JT stays in NY then I will guess that he will talk management into pursuing a better starting goalie this offseason as chip for wanting to stay and I doubt howard would cut it. if this was 5 years ago then maybe

What better starter is available?
 

razor ray

Registered User
May 8, 2011
1,510
1,586
if JT stays in NY then I will guess that he will talk management into pursuing a better starting goalie this offseason as chip for wanting to stay and I doubt howard would cut it. if this was 5 years ago then maybe

I actually think the trade favors the NYI because they shed the salary of Griess for the next two years, add a young piece like AA, get a starting Goalie for 1 or maybe 2 years, and still have 2 first round picks.
 

masta8

Registered User
Apr 26, 2018
355
94
What better starter is available?
Corey Schneider could be a possibility after losing the starting job late in the season or even Grubauer from Washington. Those are just two I can think of from the top of my head.
 

ShelbyZ

Registered User
Apr 8, 2015
3,799
2,561
I think the NYI would be good trade partners for Det if they keep Tavares. Perhaps something like this with JT staying:

Det:
#12 Pick
Greiss

To NYI
AA
Howard
Vegas Pick


NYI parts ways with a terrible goalie and gets an upgrade in Howard. NYI also adds AA to a good forward group. Det continues with the tanking with Griess and adds another good prospect at #12.

That's an absolute steal for the Islanders. Adding Greiss' contract (especially with no retention) drags down the value of that #12 pick to being almost equal with whatever the Vegas pick ends up, so they basically get AA('s rights) and Howard as a bonus. Howard could probably fetch a package of mid round picks on his own, and AA would bring in at least a 2nd on his own.

If I'm the NYI, the only way I'm trading one of those 1sts is if it's bringing back some quality additions on D and the PK. They allowed the most shots against in the league (Average of 35.5 per game, 20 games with 40 or more, 15 games with less than 30...) and had the worst PK (73.19%).

What better starter is available?
Corey Schneider could be a possibility after losing the starting job late in the season or even Grubauer from Washington. Those are just two I can think of from the top of my head.

Kinkaid is a UFA after next season, so I'd imagine the Devils want to see if he can keep it up next year and get him locked down before parting with Schneider.

As for who's available:

-You also have the next round of "gamble on an overachieving backup" (aka Scott Darling/Antti Raanta roulette) with guys like Hutton, Khudobin, (trading for) Grubauer, etc.

-Sounds like Buffalo is ready to move on from Lehner. Also, I'm sure their respective teams would be happy to move guys like Craig Anderson, Jake Allen or Steve Mason.
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
9,470
8,336
I could see a trade like the one from 2006 making the most sense as the Wings would move down slightly in one sense but way up for another. They could package the Vegas 1st with one of the 3rds from the Pens or Flyers for a couple of 2nds. Not sure who that would work with though. Montreal has #35, #38, #56 and an additional pick that will end up #57-62. The Islanders have #41 and #43, but they also already have #11 and #12 in the 1st.

I can see Kenny doing something like this in the past, but I don't like the concept of having multiple swings at lesser prospects with our current state. If a team like Calgary wants to pick up a first because they don't have an early pick, I would be all for taking advantage of the situation and send someone like AA/Nyquist and the Vegas first and try to take whatever high end D prospect we can get. I think that the Vegas first should be used unless we are trading something with it to get one piece in return with greater value, either a higher first or a prospect. Having #6 overall and 11 total picks right now gives a chance to be aggressive, but at a certain point picking up more and more picks is just going to over-saturate our prospect pool with middling prospects from the same draft year which has the chance to put us in roster management hell.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SirloinUB

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,377
London, ON
.

As for who's available:

-You also have the next round of "gamble on an overachieving backup" (aka Scott Darling/Antti Raanta roulette) with guys like Hutton, Khudobin, (trading for) Grubauer, etc.

-Sounds like Buffalo is ready to move on from Lehner. Also, I'm sure their respective teams would be happy to move guys like Craig Anderson, Jake Allen or Steve Mason.

Howard seems better than all those names.
 

njx9

Registered User
Feb 1, 2016
2,161
340
Howard seems better than all those names.

He probably is, but he's also got a history of breaking his groin in half.

Not that I like that trade, but as the dude gets older, I doubt many teams would be banking on him completing a season.
 

lilidk

Registered User
Mar 4, 2008
9,592
3,426
We are no longer rebuild on the fly. Deal with that. We might get better player than 6overall .so many good players available. Holland said that we will get as many draft as we can. Stick with your GM , be patient.
 

JustJokinenAround

just a goofball
Feb 5, 2018
1,015
536
a local rink
The better question is would there be a young top 4 defenseman available for that package ?

My guess is we end up keeping the vegas pick and hope for the best, only way I see kenny trading a draft pick is to move up in the draft.
I think they end up with two picks in the top 20, there is no way they use all 11 in the first 3 rounds, thats just way to many draft picks to make.
 

saska sault

Registered User
Jun 5, 2010
3,694
2,822
Sault Ste. Marie
Keep picks, hoard them, use the odd one to move up if you are high on a certain player.. but for the most part 1st and 2nd rounders should be kept. Trust the scouts, and make the picks... we need talent everywhere . If that means some mid level prospects lose their spots thats fine.. competition is needed.
 
Jul 30, 2005
17,660
4,588
I mean, what is location, really
What + do you think would get it done? I'd think it would have to be a serious + right now.
I would think it would need to involve somebody who can improve Calgary right now. Well, or draft picks to fill that void for them this year.

I dunno if they want AA, but LV 1st+AA+another pick could work. Maybe a 3rd. Valimaki is a good prospect, but he's not a break the bank guy. He was taken 16th. That's probably already paying too much, but I really like his game.

Picking up Bouchard and then Valimaki would be a huge infusion of talent. Bouchard can run your PP, and Valimaki can be your all-situations two-way guy.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
10,851
8,576
Exercise in theory here.

For the sake of argument, let's assume a ''worst case scenario" of Vegas winning it all, so their pick is 31.

What would be the combined value of 31+34+36 overall? Is that enough to be worth a top 10 pick? A top 5 pick? I've seen draft charts from a few years ago that suggest it's worth as much as 3 or 4 overall, but I'm not convinced that Montreal or Ottawa would go for that deal.

I'm not necessarily advocating for Detroit to make a move like this. Just trying to gauge the currency of the picks. But, if something like that ended up being on the table, would any fans here be willing to exchange all 3 of those picks for having another top 10 (or maybe even a top 5) to go with the 6th overall pick? I'm normally not interested in relinquishing extra picks once acquired, but the thought of coming away with both a Bouchard/Hughes/Dobson AND either another one of those same defensemen, or a Wahlstrom/Kotkaniemi, gives me pause...
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->