Keep the core together?

Transplanted Caper

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I still think we need to be patient, and to stay the course.

Leadership in sports is mythologized by success. It's the chicken and the egg. How can you win without leadership and how do you have leadership if you don't win. I'm old enough to remember when Steve Yzerman wasn't a leader because Detroit, full of regular season success, crashed and burned against Chicago, Toronto, and San Jose, not to mention later round losses against New Jersey and Colorado. Up until the 2018 final, virtually every conversation about Ovechkin came with a "yeah, but.." attached to it. Now? he's iconic for who he is as a player, and a person.

None of this guarantees anything, of course. But I do know we have two of the best players in the league in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. We have another elite centre in John Tavares. We have an incredibly gifted forward in William Nylander. When healthy, our depth is solid, if unspectacular. And in the playoffs, anything can happen. This fanbase lives and dies with every game more than most and blogs, Twitter, podcasts, and the constant churn of news and noise amplifies this even more.

There are issues here, of course. While we can't be sure from our couches, there looks like there's a compete level problem. The play from Andersen has been far too inconsistent, including a largely terrible last month. I wish we had a stronger blueline and that team played better defensively, but all teams have flaws, and they just have to battle through them. Hopefully Rielly can bounce back when he returns and Sandin and

I will add that, specifically, the main issue the last month has been goaltending. The other issues can be acknowledged, but when your starting is sporting a sub .900 SV% over that long a stretch, you're missing out on points. How many? Enough to be the difference between fighting for a spot and being comfortable in one, a difference that would no doubt change the outlook most have, even if the other issues still remain,

This group needs to find a way to fight through this.The solution isn't, in my view, to ship out a core piece, especially when the return may be 3 quarters in exchange for a dollar. A team, more than anything else, needs elite talent. Our core is just that. The solution is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Being patient, despite all our experience with it, sucks. We had every right to be as excited as we've ever been with this core. But we weren't wrong about the talent. No one is a bust. We're not here, in 2011 trying to squint and see a first pairing d-man in Luke Schenn or convincing ourselves Keith Aulie is sleeper just waiting to break out. But in the long run, the best call, in my view, is to bet on your elite talent. Bet it'll turn out, because I think the odds of that are better than reshaping and retooling each time we face adversity.
 

67Leafs67

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Nov 8, 2014
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The big four? Yes. The other two, not so attached to them. Both are on good contracts now, so no need to move them, but Rielly isn't exactly as good as his market value is, and Andersen's game has been pretty crappy this year (not that I'd get rid of him based on that mind you, goaltending is just weird and unpredictable, and I expect him to bounceback).

So I would say, yes, keep those six players and build around them, but if a move comes up that involves Andersen or Rielly that makes sense, I would do it. I guess the same could be said of the other four, but I'd be less willing to move on from them.
 

56 Years No Cup

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Nov 12, 2007
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No one knows for sure but I have heard the numbers are lower this year. Still some inflation but not much. Many of the southern teams have had to drop prices drastically to keep attendance. Even a couple northern teams are having trouble.
I know for a fact that the Red Wings have dropped prices because they suck and people won't go. Hockeytown my ass.
 

56 Years No Cup

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The problem is -- none of the big 4 have been really "bad". Matthews could win the Rocket Richard. Marner is on pace to hit 80 points despite missing 11 games. Nylander is on pace to score 35 (with an equal number of assists) despite missing a couple games. Tavares is still likely to be over 30 goals and at a point per game.

The problem is -- they're just paid too much. Dubas should have gotten another 2-3 years out of Matthews for him to get $11.6m. Marner is overpaid by about $1.5m. Nylander is overpaid by about $750k. That $2m+ would be absolutely huge to fixing the Leafs defensive woes this summer, and maybe even last summer to the point where they didn't need to trade Nazem Kadri.
And then there's the lack of "try hard" at times. Points aren't everything.

Find the leader of the Boys Club. Sit him down and have the final talk. If he doesn't listen, trade him.

The funny part is that depending who that player is, he might not care...
 
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Toronto makebeleifs

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Jul 4, 2014
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Marner makes the most sense to move. Tavares and Matthews are here to stay, and I believe that Nylander provides the better value on his contract compared to Mitch.

Having 3 forwards making $11 million is already crazy to start with. He's a great playmaker but goalscoring is always more coveted and the rarer skillset, and it's something Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander can all do better. The latter three can also all play centre, a more coveted position than winger.

Marner would also bring back the most in a trade compared to Nylander. Could get an actual top pairing D-man one for one and would likely still have dollars leftover to address an area of need.

Marner has also probably rubbed the organization the wrong way the most. His contract negotiation as far as I'm concerned was the dirtiest of the three. Nylander took till the final minute yes, but his camp never ran to the media stirring up controversy and drama. Nylander's contract is also looking like the best of the three. Nylander for all the work ethic criticism thrown his way has scored a ton of his goals from the front of the net, and has shown a marked improvement in his game. Matthews has as well, while Mitch seems to have stagnated.

The biggest reason to move him would be the message it would send. The hometown boy, drafted here and signed long term gets traded sends the message that no one is safe and that management is not satisfied with anything less than excellence. It would be a real wakeup call for this team that seems to have developed it's own version of blue and white disease.

Mitch is still insanely talented and who knows, maybe they do grow up and figure it all out. But as it stands right now this team as it's currently constructed can't and won't compete for anything substantial.

Deal Marner, and go forward with a core of Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Rielly, Muzzin, New top pairing D-man, and Andersen.
Only thing is, what top level young-ish defenceman with control, a good contract, and preferably right handed could the leafs target with marner? Jones is pretty much out of the question; pulock isn't a lock; doughty doesn't give any cap flexibility; Chabot is likely untouchable. That leaves like... ekblad. I don't trade marner for ekblad
 

Trapper

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Nov 21, 2013
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I still think we need to be patient, and to stay the course.

Leadership in sports is mythologized by success. It's the chicken and the egg. How can you win without leadership and how do you have leadership if you don't win. I'm old enough to remember when Steve Yzerman wasn't a leader because Detroit, full of regular season success, crashed and burned against Chicago, Toronto, and San Jose, not to mention later round losses against New Jersey and Colorado. Up until the 2018 final, virtually every conversation about Ovechkin came with a "yeah, but.." attached to it. Now? he's iconic for who he is as a player, and a person.

None of this guarantees anything, of course. But I do know we have two of the best players in the league in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. We have another elite centre in John Tavares. We have an incredibly gifted forward in William Nylander. When healthy, our depth is solid, if unspectacular. And in the playoffs, anything can happen. This fanbase lives and dies with every game more than most and blogs, Twitter, podcasts, and the constant churn of news and noise amplifies this even more.

There are issues here, of course. While we can't be sure from our couches, there looks like there's a compete level problem. The play from Andersen has been far too inconsistent, including a largely terrible last month. I wish we had a stronger blueline and that team played better defensively, but all teams have flaws, and they just have to battle through them. Hopefully Rielly can bounce back when he returns and Sandin and

I will add that, specifically, the main issue the last month has been goaltending. The other issues can be acknowledged, but when your starting is sporting a sub .900 SV% over that long a stretch, you're missing out on points. How many? Enough to be the difference between fighting for a spot and being comfortable in one, a difference that would no doubt change the outlook most have, even if the other issues still remain,

This group needs to find a way to fight through this.The solution isn't, in my view, to ship out a core piece, especially when the return may be 3 quarters in exchange for a dollar. A team, more than anything else, needs elite talent. Our core is just that. The solution is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Being patient, despite all our experience with it, sucks. We had every right to be as excited as we've ever been with this core. But we weren't wrong about the talent. No one is a bust. We're not here, in 2011 trying to squint and see a first pairing d-man in Luke Schenn or convincing ourselves Keith Aulie is sleeper just waiting to break out. But in the long run, the best call, in my view, is to bet on your elite talent. Bet it'll turn out, because I think the odds of that are better than reshaping and retooling each time we face adversity.
We have no choice to be patient since Dubas is the GM. Doesn’t mean we have to like what we see.
And that’s where we are in the moment.
But not every collection is right.
You talk about Yzerman (and kudos to him) but he also had different types of players, not all the same. Fedorov was a world class 2-way forward who could play D for the team. They traded 50 goal scorer Ray Shepard to bring in Larionov. Out went Coffey and Primeau for Shanahan. It didn’t finish the way it started and could be unlikely for us. It could be only Matthews and Nylander at the end or Nylander and Marner. Those teams evolved.

and for all of those teams there is still Marleau and Thornton who never won. Gretzky never won without Edmonton, but the Oilers did. Ray Bourque had to leave Boston. Roy was able to win with both teams. It’s evolution.

You can’t just look in a vacuum and say, yes, this must be the final core. Things may also have to change.

But not change for panic but the GM might have to realize, yes, something must change. Or eventually he might be.

Your final core will be the one that gels the best in all aspects of the game.
 

seanlinden

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Apr 28, 2009
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The big four? Yes. The other two, not so attached to them. Both are on good contracts now, so no need to move them, but Rielly isn't exactly as good as his market value is, and Andersen's game has been pretty crappy this year (not that I'd get rid of him based on that mind you, goaltending is just weird and unpredictable, and I expect him to bounceback).

So I would say, yes, keep those six players and build around them, but if a move comes up that involves Andersen or Rielly that makes sense, I would do it. I guess the same could be said of the other four, but I'd be less willing to move on from them.

Morgan Rielly is going nowhere. At $5m, the team could never even hope to replace his contributions. He's one of the leaders of the team (in a good way, their up and down efforts have mostly come with him being away from the team). Given the way he skates, he's also a guy who they could comfortably commit 8 years to (in order to keep his cap hit down) in a couple of years. No, he hasn't had the best year -- he was playing hurt for a large chunk of it, before getting shut down.

Andersen on the other hand, I think there could be a deal out there that makes sense for him, while allowing the Leafs to save a little money and get a little more cost certainty. I don't believe the Leafs would do it though. Rightfully or wrongfully, they believe that Freddy is the #1 guy that can put up 2.40s and .920s consistently if they can figure out the game infront of him. I don't think they're prepared to risk bringing in an unknown.

Interesting stat on Andersen / goalies in general by the way by the way.... there have been 36 goalies who have played 30 or more games this year. The only ones with save percentages at .920 or higher, or GAAs under 2.5 have been:

- Jarry (PIT): 30GP, 2.23 / .927
- Merzlikins (CBJ): 32GP, 2.39/.922
- Raanta (ARI): 32gp, 2.65/.921
- Korpisalo (CBJ): 33gp, 2.48/.914
- Rask (BOS): 36gp, 2.17 / .928
- Varlamov (NYI): 40gp, 2.47/.920
- Bishop (DAL): 417gp, 2.45/.922

There are 12 goalies who have played between 43 and 53 games, none of whom meet that criteria.

What does this tell you? only 7 out of the top 36 played goalies would have what most would consider "excellent" stats. None of those 7 are pacing above 55 games played.

Unsurprisingly, they are all on teams that are the league's best in terms of GAA (Boston #1, Columbus #2, Dallas #3, Arizona #4, Islanders #5, Pittsburgh #8). What might be suprising, is that for all of these guys, their backups/partners also have VERY good numbers with the exception of Matt Murray in Pittsburgh.
- Merzlikins and Korpisalo have each other.
- Raanta has Kuemper who is 2.17 and .929 in 25 games, plus an unknown in Adin Hill who is 2.62 and .918 in 13 games.
- Rask has Halak who is 2.42 and .918 in 29 games
- Varlamov has Greiss who is 2.65 and .916 in 28 games
- Bishop has Khudobin who is 2.26 and .928 in 26 games

What does this say to me? Goalies only put up these kinds of numbers if the teams infront of them allow them to... and a heavy workload seems to be counterproductive to getting good goaltending.

It's suprising, that an acclaimed math whiz like Dubas, wouldn't use his 2 guys in more of a 1a / 1b type situation.
 
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leburn98

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Jan 28, 2013
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I wonder what would happen to his save percentage if we got competent defending.

It's hilarious seeing fans try to put the blame on freddy.

It's a team sport and the leafs can not defend.
I don't solely blame Freddy, but his play this year is certainly a concern and a contributing factor to the Leafs struggles this year. Given the injuries to Rielly, Muzzin and Dermott, the Leafs are not too far off from last year's team defensively. In High Danger Shots, the Leafs are actually middle of the pack which suggests that they may allow more shots than other teams, but do a decent job at lowering the quality of shots.

The only real difference from last year and this year defensively is the goaltending (Freddy/Hutch) have been collectively worst than last year (Andy/Sparks).

5oVlcAK.jpg


Note: The SA rank is from best to worst, whereas the HDS is ranked from worst to best.
 

Barilko14

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Morgan Rielly is going nowhere. At $5m, the team could never even hope to replace his contributions. He's one of the leaders of the team (in a good way, their up and down efforts have mostly come with him being away from the team). Given the way he skates, he's also a guy who they could comfortably commit 8 years to (in order to keep his cap hit down) in a couple of years. No, he hasn't had the best year -- he was playing hurt for a large chunk of it, before getting shut down.

Andersen on the other hand, I think there could be a deal out there that makes sense for him, while allowing the Leafs to save a little money and get a little more cost certainty. I don't believe the Leafs would do it though. Rightfully or wrongfully, they believe that Freddy is the #1 guy that can put up 2.40s and .920s consistently if they can figure out the game infront of him. I don't think they're prepared to risk bringing in an unknown.

Interesting stat on Andersen / goalies in general by the way by the way.... there have been 36 goalies who have played 30 or more games this year. The only ones with save percentages at .920 or higher, or GAAs under 2.5 have been:

- Jarry (PIT): 30GP, 2.23 / .927
- Merzlikins (CBJ): 32GP, 2.39/.922
- Raanta (ARI): 32gp, 2.65/.921
- Korpisalo (CBJ): 33gp, 2.48/.914
- Rask (BOS): 36gp, 2.17 / .928
- Varlamov (NYI): 40gp, 2.47/.920
- Bishop (DAL): 417gp, 2.45/.922

There are 12 goalies who have played between 43 and 53 games, none of whom meet that criteria.

What does this tell you? only 7 out of the top 36 played goalies would have what most would consider "excellent" stats. None of those 7 are pacing above 55 games played.

Unsurprisingly, they are all on teams that are the league's best in terms of GAA (Boston #1, Columbus #2, Dallas #3, Arizona #4, Islanders #5, Pittsburgh #8). What might be suprising, is that for all of these guys, their backups/partners also have VERY good numbers with the exception of Matt Murray in Pittsburgh.
- Merzlikins and Korpisalo have each other.
- Raanta has Kuemper who is 2.17 and .929 in 25 games, plus an unknown in Adin Hill who is 2.62 and .918 in 13 games.
- Rask has Halak who is 2.42 and .918 in 29 games
- Varlamov has Greiss who is 2.65 and .916 in 28 games
- Bishop has Khudobin who is 2.26 and .928 in 26 games

What does this say to me? Goalies only put up these kinds of numbers if the teams infront of them allow them to... and a heavy workload seems to be counterproductive to getting good goaltending.

It's suprising, that an acclaimed math whiz like Dubas, wouldn't use his 2 guys in more of a 1a / 1b type situation.

Maybe Dubas would prefer a tandem situation, but as he inherited a No. 1 goalie has not yet been able to implement. If Sparks had played well maybe he'd still be here and playing 30 games.

After Sparks was gone, they didn't really have the budget to bring in a 1B goalie, and until recently the backups have not been able to provide strong goaltending to give this team that option.

Now, Andersen needs all the games he can get to find his game again.
 

sxvnert

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Nov 23, 2015
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What the D should look like next season:

Muzzin Pietrangelo
Sandin Brodie
--------- Holl

Trade: Rielly, Dermott, Liljegren
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Playmakers are just as important, if not more than goal scorers.
Lmao. No.
Playmakers make their linemates better. Countless players have had career years playing next to mitch.
The same can not be said for Auston.
This is not true. Players have had career years next to Matthews. You might not have noticed, due to the countless rookies, 4th liners, AHLers, broken down old men, etc. that Matthews has played with.
Auston does not have a history of being a big game player.
This is also not true.
That's with marner taking the harder match ups for the most part.
This is also not true. Marner's line took the negligibly harder match-up in 1 of 3 years.
Trading matthews makes a lot more sense.
Trading Matthews would be the single stupidest thing this franchise could ever do.
 

Dekes For Days

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I wonder what would happen to his save percentage if we got competent defending.
I think you mean what would happen if we became the best defensive team in the history of the league and never let him see a shot or chance again in his career. Because that seems to be the standard that people want from their defense in Toronto.

Defense has not been the issue for Andersen this year.
 
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JT AM da real deal

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Oct 4, 2018
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This is not true. Revenue is increasing, and it was either this year or next that overall salaries were seeing a drop, because lockout fears were worked into some contracts.
This is what the union is telling the team reps and team reps are telling the players ... you may not like it but that is what is going on ... revenue is increasing in some markets, stable in other and down in a lot .. the CAP number is not a pure math equation it is ultimately a negotiation every year between the league and its players ... and some of the inner variables get modified each year based on those negotiations ... but bottom line the players will fight every move designed to increase escrow holdback to the end
 

Dekes For Days

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the CAP number is not a pure math equation it is ultimately a negotiation every year between the league and its players
No, it is a calculation with set parameters, and then players have the option to increase it beyond that with the escalator. The cap is going up; guaranteed. The players do not decide this. It's only a matter of how much.
 
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JT AM da real deal

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No, it is a calculation with set parameters, and then players have the option to increase it beyond that with the escalator. The cap is going up; guaranteed. The players do not decide this. It's only a matter of how much.
You are not close enough to how it actually works ... each year the parameters change and are negotiated within CBA formula between the union and the league. In fact I think they are modifying the formula itself slightly this year to accommodate the players. This is not the almighty bible you think it is. The union and league only tell us the final result. All the inner negotiations are private. The only thing any of us know is reports to union reps which talk about things in a general way.
 

Dekes For Days

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You are not close enough to how it actually works
Actually we all know how it works. It's literally mandated in their CBA. You thinking you're an insider and spreading doom-and-gloom false statements doesn't change reality.

The cap is going up. The players do not have control over this; only over how much, in a very limited way. And in every single year under the salary cap, they have used the escalator to some extent.
 

JT AM da real deal

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Actually we all know how it works. It's literally mandated in their CBA. You thinking you're an insider and spreading doom-and-gloom false statements doesn't change reality.

The cap is going up. The players do not have control over this; only over how much, in a very limited way. And in every single year under the salary cap, they have used the escalator to some extent.
You can continue to live in a dreamworld with white picket fences. I don't really care.
 

Cappuccino

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If they sign Spezza for 700K, Dermott for 2M and Clifford for 1.5M they are at this years cap, with Mikheyev still unsigned. If the plan is to use Dermott as a RD, the rising cap may be enough to sign Mikheyev.

If they want to trade for D, they need to trade away as much cap as they bring in.

Johnnson/Kapanen/Kerfoot + Dermott will get you a 5.4M D and I guess in most cases you will need to add your 2021 1st round pick also.

I definitely would try to trade Marner (because I don't see them trading Tavares) for another (quality) winger + RD and maybe even some picks. This will save you some cap to be able to resign Hyman and that kind of players.
 
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JT AM da real deal

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I'm living in reality. The cap is going to go up, and in a few years, pretty significantly. Not sure why you're trying to misrepresent how the cap works.
The next 2 years the CAP will go up modestly very modestly. We will see what happens in 3rd year with the supposed holy grail tv deal from Gary and the new team.
 

seventieslord

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It looks like the Leafs, thanks to a series of drafts in which they drafted high and took the best available player and that was a high-end forward, they are now a better version of the Oilers circa 2016. The whole hockey world could see they needed to do something to balance out their team. Of course, what they did was not advisable, but there's no doubt Hall for Larsson balanced the team in a big way.

I was just spitballing with a friend the other night. Not necessarily an advocate for any of this but if you want to do something radical and realistic to reshape the team almost immediately, how about this:

- Matthews for Aho and Slavin

(there are going to be wildly divergent opinions on who should say no for this trade, but it makes sense in a number of ways. Toronto gets a stud #1 D that brings exactly what they've lacked for decades. They get a great, but not franchise center back. They get back players who are better salary cap values. I realize that when you're talking about a player of Matthews' caliber, the value of the player on the ice, in a trade, and what you have to expect to pay them goes up exponentially, so by no means do I think Matthews is just 11% better than Aho because he's 11% more productive over the past two seasons combined; those extra goals are the gravy on what would otherwise be a good steak. Carolina gets a truly game-breaking scorer like they have literally never had in their franchise's history. They have an incredibly strong defense corps. They are probably the only team in the league where you could completely remove their #1 and they could still claim to be above average in the league. This costs us about 1.5M on the cap in total).

- Sign UFA Pietrangelo (7 years, 9M)

(it's not that I advocate signing a 30 year old for 7 years, but let's be honest, someone will give him 7 years so we will have to. We can at least afford to front load it so that it's easier to move as he hits 35+. Pietrangelo has always been a truly elite player and has never stopped being one. He's going to be great for a few years still. He's the most accomplished PK defenseman of this generation. He's the proverbial "good Ontario boy" who you can imagine would like to come here. He's a righty.)

- Ceci and Barrie walk

(replaced by Sandin and Lilljegren as full-time players. We can disagree on how ready those two players are, but if they're just getting 3rd pairing and 2nd PP duty to the tune of about 15-16 sheltered minutes a game, they can handle that at their ages. You might be wondering, what about Holl and Dermott? You're right, they are both NHL players too, even if they're nothing special. For starters, there's nothing wrong with having 8 good defensemen. You can expect one of them to be injured at any time, so we have 7. Then you just swap them out as needed throughout the season. If one proves to be a problem - i.e. they don't like being shuffled in and out, they prove to be too good to be a rotating 5-6-7, then they are an asset we can trade. Ceci and Barrie's salaries in exchange for an entry level deal saves us about 5.75 on the cap)

This would be the first time since, let's say 1993-94 (arguably, 2002-03) that the Leafs could say they have an above average defense corps. Wouldn't that be nice for a change? And it wouldn't just be above average. Jake Muzzin as your #4, that's incredible. If you wanted, you could have Rielly, Pietrangelo or Slavin on the ice at all times.

In total, those three moves put us up 4.75 on the cap compared to right now. When I add up everything that's on the books for next year, minus the out, plus the in, plus the kessel money, I have us at 91.3, so at about $8M over the cap, something else would have to give:

- Andersen (saves us 4M if he's replaced with a bargain backup. Some teams rely on a goalie, some teams have such strong D that the goalie doesn't matter all that much. We would have to hope we're the lattter. Campbell's early returns are great too, if you haven't noticed)
- Nylander (His contract actually looks really moveable right now, doesn't it? assume we get back a younger cheaper roster player and picks, we save about $4M with this)
- Kapanen (We don't necessarily need an NHLer back in this deal, just assume we replace him with a Moore/Engvall type player and save $2M)
- Holl (He's a useful #5 to nearly any team and on a fair salary for 3 more years, as nice as it would be to keep him, we wouldn't need to. Saves us $2M)

Is this a reasonable framework for reshaping the team? Hey, I'm as attached to Matthews as anyone else, but the goal is having a better team and winning the cup, not holding onto players without a larger goal in mind.
 

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