Keep the core together?

Stamkos4life

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Oct 25, 2018
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Marner makes the most sense to move. Tavares and Matthews are here to stay, and I believe that Nylander provides the better value on his contract compared to Mitch.

Having 3 forwards making $11 million is already crazy to start with. He's a great playmaker but goalscoring is always more coveted and the rarer skillset, and it's something Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander can all do better. The latter three can also all play centre, a more coveted position than winger.

Marner would also bring back the most in a trade compared to Nylander. Could get an actual top pairing D-man one for one and would likely still have dollars leftover to address an area of need.

Marner has also probably rubbed the organization the wrong way the most. His contract negotiation as far as I'm concerned was the dirtiest of the three. Nylander took till the final minute yes, but his camp never ran to the media stirring up controversy and drama. Nylander's contract is also looking like the best of the three. Nylander for all the work ethic criticism thrown his way has scored a ton of his goals from the front of the net, and has shown a marked improvement in his game. Matthews has as well, while Mitch seems to have stagnated.

The biggest reason to move him would be the message it would send. The hometown boy, drafted here and signed long term gets traded sends the message that no one is safe and that management is not satisfied with anything less than excellence. It would be a real wakeup call for this team that seems to have developed it's own version of blue and white disease.

Mitch is still insanely talented and who knows, maybe they do grow up and figure it all out. But as it stands right now this team as it's currently constructed can't and won't compete for anything substantial.

Deal Marner, and go forward with a core of Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Rielly, Muzzin, New top pairing D-man, and Andersen.

Matthews has the 3rd highest salary but the shortest term out of the top ~25 contracts. That means his contract will be up before most and then he will get another pay day. If he wanted 14+ for 8 years last season, how much is he going to want in 4 years?

That same player pulled down his pants towards a female security guard, while drunk, and then proceeded to hide it from the team for the next couple months. And fans want to make him captain? Wow.

Marner hit over 90 points while still on his elc.

Matthews has never paced for more than 90 before this season.

Playmakers are just as important, if not more than goal scorers.

Playmakers make their linemates better. Countless players have had career years playing next to mitch.

The same can not be said for Auston.

Auston does not have a history of being a big game player. He has lost his last 4 playoff series, going back to his time in the swiss league.

Compare that to marner who has won multiple awards and championships.

In 20 playoff games for both, marner has 17 points while auston has 13. That's with marner taking the harder match ups for the most part.

Trading matthews makes a lot more sense.
 
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Stamkos4life

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Oct 25, 2018
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The thing is it's difficult to determine where this team truly is at when your starting goaltender has been dreadful for the last two months. I've been a Freddy Andersen supporter from Day 1, but a lot of the issues with the Leafs revolves around him. I don't care how good of a team you have, a goaltender with a .886 SV% since January is going to sink teams. It's actually a miracle the Leafs are where they are.

For those interested, since January 1st.

Bottom 10 (out of 43 goaltenders with over 10+ games started):
Rittich (CGY): .895 [6-5]
*Halak (BOS): .895 [7-3]
*Elliott (PHI): .894 [6-2]
Gibson (ANA): .893 [5-9]
Fleury (VGK): .893 [9-6]
Anderson (OTT): .893 [3-6]
*Domingue (NJD/VAN): .891 [2-4]
Howard (DET): .890 [0-9]
Andersen (TOR): .886 [5-5]
Holtby (WAS): .885 [5-6]

* Backup goaltender

This doesn't absolve the Leafs of their issues, but getting competent goaltending would be a start.

I wonder what would happen to his save percentage if we got competent defending.

It's hilarious seeing fans try to put the blame on freddy.

It's a team sport and the leafs can not defend.
 
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Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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In terms of on ice play - its hard to get more, at least offensively from the big four (even Tavares remains hovering sround a ppg despite the criticisms).

Id like to see a complete makeover of the 2nd tier assets on the team - like move out 3/4 of Kap/A/J/Ker/Dermott before id consider moving a main doeward (since talent like that cant be replaced, at lesst not easily).

The only core guy id be fine moving on from would be Andersen, but that depends on what his replacement would be
 
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seanlinden

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Apr 28, 2009
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None of that has any influence. The players voted and it was decided last year to change the negotiation strategy around to focus on reducing the escrow holdback to 10% or below after trueup. Nothing has changed. At 83M the numbers for escrow holdback again around 10% next year. Anything over 83M in CAP and the escrow increases again. The players will not approve it. So we are going to be up against it for next 2 NHL seasons on the CAP. In 3rd year the BIG US TV deal kicks in which everyone tells me will drive CAP by UP about 15M-20M per. Again I am from Missouri and I will wait to see it.

They don't need to change anything to get higher than an $83m cap... we're talking about basic inflation of revenue.
 
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4thline

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The truth is we are in deep deep sh*t next year too. We got 77M tied up in 15 players. Expect CAP to go up by 1.5M to 83M so we will have 6M to sign 8 guys for 23 man roster. So bottom end guys again at league minimum.

Dermy at 2M and Mik at 1.5M on bridges means 2.5M left for 6 guys which is impossible. So likely a 20 man roster with 3 more guys at 700K each with $0.4M left in space.

We are in CAP hell in my books next year.

77 in 17 spots, and we could run with 22, leaving 6m for 5 spots.

4 of those are the 4th line and extra forward which should average no higher than ~800-900 a piece = 3.2m -3.6m

Leaves 2.4-2.8 for the last d spot, with Mihkeyev and Dermott unsigned.


Trade Johnsson, replace with Mihkeyev @ 1.5, adds back 1.9, so 4.3- 4.7 for a RHD if we trade Dermott
Signing Dermott at 2 in place of Marincin takes away 1.3 so back to 3 - 3.4.
 
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JT AM da real deal

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Oct 4, 2018
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They don't need to change anything to get higher than an $83m cap... we're talking about basic inflation of revenue.
No one knows for sure but I have heard the numbers are lower this year. Still some inflation but not much. Many of the southern teams have had to drop prices drastically to keep attendance. Even a couple northern teams are having trouble.
 
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sxvnert

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Nov 23, 2015
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The core: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Rielly, Andersen.
Trade Nylander, Rielly, Andersen this summer.
If things dont improve next season,, fire Dubas, and begin trade talks on Matthews, Marner, Tavares.
 

JT AM da real deal

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Oct 4, 2018
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77 in 17 spots, and we could run with 22, leaving 6m for 5 spots.

4 of those are the 4th line and extra forward which should average no higher than ~800-900 a piece = 3.2m -3.6m

Leaves 2.4-2.8 for the last d spot, with Mihkeyev and Dermott unsigned.


Trade Johnsson, replace with Mihkeyev @ 1.5, adds back 1.9, so 4.3- 4.7 for a RHD if we trade Dermott
Signing Dermott at 2 in place of Marincin takes away 1.3 so back to 3 - 3.4.
Sorry I missed the 17 players. Yes I could see that happening. How much left to sign a #1RHD which is what we really need to improve team?????????
 

thusk

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Jul 15, 2011
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Look fun how bipolar leafs fan can be

Last season Nylander was bas, we need to trade him or dmen, this year nobody want to see him leaving.

Last season marner and Tavares was awesome and he was untouchable. This season, he's get some trouble and now let's go it's time to trade both of them!!!

Remenbered me Washington couple of years ago, you just don't trade that kind of player
 
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seanlinden

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Apr 28, 2009
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Look fun how bipolar leafs fan can be

Last season Nylander was bas, we need to trade him or dmen, this year nobody want to see him leaving.

Last season marner and Tavares was awesome and he was untouchable. This season, he's get some trouble and now let's go it's time to trade both of them!!!

Remenbered me Washington couple of years ago, you just don't trade that kind of player

The problem is -- none of the big 4 have been really "bad". Matthews could win the Rocket Richard. Marner is on pace to hit 80 points despite missing 11 games. Nylander is on pace to score 35 (with an equal number of assists) despite missing a couple games. Tavares is still likely to be over 30 goals and at a point per game.

The problem is -- they're just paid too much. Dubas should have gotten another 2-3 years out of Matthews for him to get $11.6m. Marner is overpaid by about $1.5m. Nylander is overpaid by about $750k. That $2m+ would be absolutely huge to fixing the Leafs defensive woes this summer, and maybe even last summer to the point where they didn't need to trade Nazem Kadri.
 

Mess

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Feb 27, 2002
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The test of this core will be if they can be successful when utilizing 1/2 your cap on 4 forwards.

We are already seeing this year that the depth you can surround them with and be consistent is missing.

You might need to break up this core for 2 reasons lack of team success and cap utilization by position.
 

A1LeafNation

Obsession beats talent everytime!!
Oct 17, 2010
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The test of this core will be if they can be successful when utilizing 1/2 your cap on 4 forwards.

We are already seeing this year that the depth you can surround them with and be consistent is missing.

You might need to break up this core for 2 reasons lack of team success and cap utilization by position.
I don't think our depth is worse than any other team.

The problem is the commitment of the player to play NHL hockey.
 
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4thline

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The test of this core will be if they can be successful when utilizing 1/2 your cap on 4 forwards.

We are already seeing this year that the depth you can surround them with and be consistent is missing.

You might need to break up this core for 2 reasons lack of team success and cap utilization by position.

Popquiz, prior to the injury driven Greene acquisition how much did the Islanders have allocated to their D this year?
 

4thline

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Jul 18, 2014
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Pre deadline healthy defensive allocation
Islanders 18.14
Avalanche 17.24
Blues 23.2
Coyotes 26.3
Jackets 24
Stars 19.4
Bruins 19.9

Leafs this season -18.7 (2.75 retained)
Leafs approximate next season 19.6
 
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All Mod Cons

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Sep 7, 2018
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Andersen save the ass of the leafs 3 of last 4 seasons, yep he don't have his best season but he's absolutly not the problem in Toronto. Put Vasilevskiy in front of leafs D and result will not be better for a lot. Andersen need help and now he's unable to play as an mvp caliber, he's the problem. So just stop talk about Andersen is bad, he's still our best best player 3 of 4 last season.

I don't think leafs need to trade JT too. Our 3 rd line cost around10 M Johnsson/kerfoot/kapanen and i don't how better this line is vs a Koshkov/engvall/bracco line a 3M line

Ok mikheyev have to sign maybe around 3M but you still saving 4,5 of ceci

Get an under to radar guy like Demelo around 3 to 3,5M, Brodin around 4M.
Hasn't Andersen's terrible play coincided with Keefe's all out attack strategy where forwards are supposed to cover for the likes of Bobby Holl, yet they don't?
 
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thusk

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Jul 15, 2011
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The test of this core will be if they can be successful when utilizing 1/2 your cap on 4 forwards.

We are already seeing this year that the depth you can surround them with and be consistent is missing.

You might need to break up this core for 2 reasons lack of team success and cap utilization by position.

Leafs have a better depht in term of points/match played by far than Boston/ Tampa/ Washington. The problem is clearly not there.
 

All Mod Cons

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Sep 7, 2018
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Look fun how bipolar leafs fan can be

Last season Nylander was bas, we need to trade him or dmen, this year nobody want to see him leaving.

Last season marner and Tavares was awesome and he was untouchable. This season, he's get some trouble and now let's go it's time to trade both of them!!!

Remenbered me Washington couple of years ago, you just don't trade that kind of player
Isn't the issue that we're paying 3 forwards 11mil leaving us with a shitty defense and lack of secondary scoring. We're paying so many players minimum wage and they are producing like players who are making minimum wage. That in itself is fine if those players are gritty/big/tough/defensively responsible wingers. But they're small (or play small), supposedly offensive, soft as butter and horrific defensively.

Our defense is (best case scenario) Rielly, Barrie, Muzzin, Holl, Sandin, Ceci.

That's f***ing awful
 
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All Mod Cons

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Sep 7, 2018
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No.

Hes been subpar for various stretches this season. Including while Babcock was still coaching
I thought he started out poor like he's done every season, then played really really well, then played poorly when the team were trying to get Babcock fired, then plummeted when Keefe came in.
 

Gabriel426

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Jun 30, 2015
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I think Kerfoot and AJ will be traded for Defensive help this off season. That close to 7 mil.
They will sign or trade for a cheaper 3C.
I don’t see Barrie coming back unless he signs for 2mil. I do see Ceci coming back but it can’t be 4.2mil/yr.
 

All Mod Cons

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Sep 7, 2018
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I think Kerfoot and AJ will be traded for Defensive help this off season. That close to 7 mil.
They will sign or trade for a cheaper 3C.
I don’t see Barrie coming back unless he signs for 2mil. I do see Ceci coming back but it can’t be 4.2mil/yr.
I'd piss my pants if Ceci came back
 

Once

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Jul 16, 2010
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I would move Marner for cap purposes > anything else. I think WN is good bang for buck, and you keep your 2 top line centres. Use that $11m for a top pairing dman ~$7-$8m, and allocate the rest to fill holes up front (e.g. third line centre).
 
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m1ker

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Apr 11, 2014
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I wouldn’t touch the core including kaps. The rest we can keep tweaking to find better fits. We just need 1 big UFA signing on defence. Barrie signing was the perfect litmus test to see what kind of defenceman the team needs. Muzzin was a steal. Let’s keep the course and don’t make any rush decisions
 
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